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Posts with tag picks

Is Jim Cramer the anointed king of pump and dump?

I may have mentioned previously that for some odd reason I often have the very daunting privilege of entertaining some deeply intriguing questions. The query put to me today was issued in form similar to this:

If I could virtually guarantee you that by following my instructions on when to buy and sell stocks you would reap a profit at least 70% of the time, would you listen to my instructions and follow them? The only catch is you have to be the first one to take action based on my advice.

This question was brought up in reference to Jim Cramer and the tone of the question was not nice. It was implied that something less than honorable might be taking place behind the scenes. I stand in Jim Cramer's defense (as if it's even required).

Although at times he annoys me with his on screen antics, I have never had cause to believe that Jim Cramer's prognostications encompassed anything less than good, solid business analysis, thorough historical trending and conservative (although sometimes very wrong) performance projections. I have never known Mr.Cramer to lie about anything and he backs up every claim he makes with experience and facts.

Continue reading Is Jim Cramer the anointed king of pump and dump?

Valero Energy: Unbelievable value for 2007

Great companies and great stocks can be found everyday and everywhere you look. However, sometimes we look but we do not see. How can that be? Sheldon Liber brings a brighter light to illuminate picks for 2007 and beyond. Valero Energy (NYSE:VLO) is his seventh of seven for 2007.

Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO) This is an unbelievable value in my opinion, and even more incredible because it has been hiding in plain sight. This stock has gotten some attention because it has a P/E of 5.8. That will get a lot of people's attention. But the metrics for this company are amazing, top to bottom. I have been discussing low P/S ratios in this story and for VLO the figure is 0.39. Yesterday this stock closed at $52.01. That means if the price tripled, to $156.03, yes tripled!, the P/S would only be 1.17 which is very very low. Try finding any other large cap companies with that low a P/E and P/S. There are not many, and they are usually stocks of companies that are out of favor, and deserve to be.

There is much more to the story. The book value, a favorite of Graham and Buffett, is 1.83. Well, it is not less than 1.0, which is what they would be looking for. But consider this: VLO has hard assets like refineries and land, whose book value has to be tremendously understated, since they are all old ledger entries. That tells me the 'real' book value is far greater than it would be if the company's assets were re-appraised to current value -- meaning that 1.83 might very well approach 1.0.

Continue reading Valero Energy: Unbelievable value for 2007

Time Warner: clear direction means clear pick for 2007

Great companies and great stocks can be found everyday and everywhere you look. However, sometimes we look but we do not see. How can that be? Sheldon Liber brings a brighter light to illuminate picks for 2007 and beyond. Time Warner Inc. (NYSE:TWX) is his sixth of seven for 2007.

Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) On this one James Cramer and I agree 100%, but I was there first! We are in at $12.10. I also agree with Cramer that TWX could easily be $28 to $30 per share in a year. The company has cleared out a lot of old baggage, reduced debt, bought back shares, completed the acquisition of Adelphia, now Time Warner Cable and cleaned up the Comcast relationship. Management has made bold moves with AOL, radically changing the business plan, now offering free service and continue to focus each business segment. Even BloggingStocks.com has grown tremendously since TWX bought Weblogs, Inc. in October 2005.

There are some notes of caution because few stories are perfect. When I first noted the value in TWX months ago its P/S was 1.24 -- the lowest of our BloggingStocks -- and I said, very worthy of consideration. Now it is 2.34, so this is not what is driving my interest. The P/E of 19.87 is no bargain, either, and the ROE, ROA and ROIC are way to low for me to even discuss. What I think is compelling about the story is that TWX is just now beginning to come out of its shell. Parson's honeymoon period is long over, new large shareholder Icahn is looking over everyone's shoulder, the cable business is ready to rock big time, and AOL finally has clear direction and a rudder. And BloggingStocks ... well, who knows -- great editors, great team, great potential!

TWX does pay a dividend yield of 1% but it should be higher. If it does not increase ROIC than the company should give the money back to us, the shareholders. I expect that we will see the metrics improve significantly over the next few quarters as it reports growing earnings. (Read the Company Profile.)

PetroChina: Not a bargain, but one to watch for 2007

Great companies and great stocks can be found everyday and everywhere you look. However, sometimes we look but we do not see. How can that be? Sheldon Liber brings a brighter light to illuminate picks for 2007 and beyond. PetroChina (NYSE:PTR) is his fifth of seven for 2007.

PetroChina ADR (NYSE: PTR) Okay, I admit it, I love this company! I bought it at $44 and again at $55 per share. You could have bought in at anytime in the last two years and made good money. This is one of my best buys ever and I have been beating this drum promoting it since I have been writing for AOL, so if you never bought in, it was not because you did not have any notice. When I first mentioned PTR about seven months ago it was around $100. Its all time high is $140.49 and it closed last night only pennies less $140.42. That is an annualized return of 70+%. I give Barron's full credit for bringing this company to my attention, and they did so prior to the release of information from Berkshire Hathaway indicating that Warren Buffett purchased $1.3 billion dollars of the company. Give Buffett credit though, he did see it first...again.

I cannot tout PTR as being a bargain based on the P/S of 3.51. There are a lot of people following this company and, the faster it has gone up, the more attention it gets, as it hits new highs every few days. What I can say is there is a chance it will come down in the next few months after an earnings report and some profit-taking, or maybe some relief in the price of oil. When it does I would jump in with both feet. When I first examined this company and its future potential I found a P/E of 9.5, a P/S of just over 1.0 offering a 5.4% yield or there abouts. So in this world where there are no sure things I thought I had found one. You can be absolutely sure that the people of China will use more oil tomorrow than they did yesterday, more this year than last, and that will go on for many decades!

Continue reading PetroChina: Not a bargain, but one to watch for 2007

Huaneng Power: Get into China for 2007

Great companies and great stocks can be found everyday and everywhere you look. However, sometimes we look but we do not see. How can that be? Sheldon Liber brings a brighter light to illuminate picks for 2007 and beyond. Huaneng Power International (NYSE:HNP) is his fourth of seven for 2007.

Huaneng Power International ADS (NYSE: HNP) Yes, I know you have heard me push this stock before. If you regularly read my stories you have heard it many times. This is one of my favorite companies and, unless something changes, it will remain so for the rest of my life! It is particularly attractive in a Roth IRA where you can collect the dividend tax free. So lets start with the yield of 3.44%, that's nice. Add to that you have some foreign exposure, but through the NYSE. Now consider it is the largest power company in the largest, fastest-growing market.

Need more, Barron's (my favorite read) gave me another reason to examine HNP for investment, although unwittingly. The magazine wrote an article highlighting several Chinese REITS that have done extremely well and suggested the sector has plenty of room to run for years to come. Well, these REITS are all listed on the Hong Kong exchange. That is a place I do not feel comfortable doing any trading for the time being. I also do not feel I have enough information to distinguish one from another, despite Barron's worthy attempt to educate me. But consider this: no matter whether one or all continue to develop properties successfully and make tons of money, they will all need power. HNP is most likely to be the provider of that power.

China has so much to do in the next 30 to 50 years in expanding its economy, that HNP seems solid even if you overpay now. Since I started proclaiming this as a must-own stock it is up over 40% in real terms and much more on an annualized basis. The shares have climbed so much (you can't see it but I'm taking a bow, thank you very much) that I must express a word of caution. I bought in at $26.35 and it closed at $36.35 last night. This remains a stock to own but the entry point is harder to know, so I am going to recommend you dollar-cost average and buy shares on a periodic basis, so that in the long run, you are on board this train, even if you do not always get a short-term bargain. It is at an all-time high and that is not usually the best time to buy. But we are not trying to time the market, just appreciate it over time. (Read the Company Profile.)

Home Depot: Despite Nardelli, an asset-rich pick for 2007

Great companies and great stocks can be found everyday and everywhere you look. However, sometimes we look but we do not see. How can that be? Sheldon Liber brings a brighter light to illuminate picks for 2007 and beyond. The Home Depot, Inc. (NYSE:HD) is his third of seven for 2007.

The Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD) -- Like many of my picks, you will find I look for out-of-favor companies with depressed stock prices and compelling stories, while ignoring most analyst banter. Home Depot has been buying back shares all year, and on December 14, 2006 it announced it would buy back another $3 billion worth -- why? While sales and profits are growing, its same-store-sales have been depressed by the reduction in housing starts and declining home sales in many markets. Its shareholders have been restless and a buyback is a quick way to add shareholder value. It also shows confidence in the current value and supports it at the same time. HD closed yesterday at $39.56.

Starting again with the P/S ratio of 1.05 we find another eye-opener, and it has a below average P/E of 13.66 with an above average yield of 2.31%. Again, we find the ROE, ROA and ROIC all top the P/E: Return on Equity (TTM) 22.98 Return on Assets (TTM) 14.21 and Return on Investments (TTM) 20.7.

Continue reading Home Depot: Despite Nardelli, an asset-rich pick for 2007

Duke Energy: Vote for this boring stock for 2007

Great companies and great stocks can be found everyday and everywhere you look. However, sometimes we look but we do not see. How can that be? Sheldon Liber brings a brighter light to illuminate picks for 2007 and beyond. Duke Energy (NYSE:DUK) is his second of seven for 2007.

Duke Energy (NYSE: DUK) -- Earlier in the year I reported that the Dow Jones Utility Index had beaten the Industrials across the board for six-month, year-to-date, one-year, three-year, five-year and 10-year periods. Another vote for boring stocks. If you follow the reported activities of Warren Buffet over the past few years you will also find he has been acquiring utilities for Berkshire Hathaway. Now factor in a very good dividend yield of 3.86% and you might be compelled to consider this stock.

In January, Spectra Energy, the natural gas operator, will be going its own way as a separate company. Management believes this will be a catalyst to increase shareholder value. It has been reported in Barron's and elsewhere that senior managers holds a lot of stock themselves, so they have plenty of incentive to make this deal work. (Read the Company Profile).

I cannot say that DUK is cheap. It closed yesterday at $33.17, near its 52 week high of $34.50 and its P/E is 17.46 -- about average for large cap stocks, but high for a utility. The other metrics are also average, but there is plenty here to at least justify putting it on investors' watch list to facilitate picking some up on an off day or week. Come this time next year, I think it will be higher. Remember that utility companies have a captive audience -- I mean customer -- so there is some downside protection.

Dow Chemical: a solid pick for 2007

Great companies and great stocks can be found everyday and everywhere you look. However, sometimes we look but we do not see. How can that be? Sheldon Liber brings a brighter light to illuminate picks for 2007 and beyond. Dow Chemical Company (NYSE:DOW) is his first of seven for 2007.

The Dow Chemical Company (NYSE: DOW): Dow has been trending downward for over two years from its high of $56 per share. Last night it closed at $40.14 -- roughly the same share price as three years ago. If you are interested in technical analysis (which I'm not), you might note that Dow seems to move in three-year cycles. I think the important thing to note here is that some companies operate in cyclical businesses, which is more important than the chart shapes.

According to my personal investment strategy, price-to-sales is a better indicator of future performance than price-to-earnings. With that in mind, please take note of Dow's price-to-sales ratio of 0.85. Anything approaching 1.0 is worthy of investor attention. The rationale for this is based on top line sales being harder to manipulate than bottom line earnings. Those interested in the more closely followed price-to-earnings ratio will be happy to learn that it is now around 10, or about eight points less than the Dow Jones industrial average.

While the P/S and P/E ratios are good attention-getters, there must be more to clinch the deal. Check out Dow's Return on Equity (for the trailing twelve months) of 32.56, Return on Assets (TTM) of 11.87, and Return on Investments (TTM) of 18.52 -- all far greater than its P/E. This tells us that management is able to generate a return higher than we are paying to acquire that return.

Continue reading Dow Chemical: a solid pick for 2007

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Last updated: November 21, 2008: 10:24 PM

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