With few job opportunities, people are looking at starting up franchises. In fact, I recently talked to someone who said that the upcoming Franchise Expo conference has seen a doubling of registrations.
But according to the Wall Street Journal [a paid publication], there are signs that the credit crunch is taking a toll on franchises.
After all, the upfront costs for a franchise can be significant. Moreover, there are the expenses for upkeep and maintenance.
Some of the franchises that are looking to pull back on expansion include major operators like Sonic Corp. (NASDAQ: SONC), Panera Bread (NASDAQ: PNRA) and so on as different finance firms such as GE's (NYSE: GE) capital arm and Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) are showing some restraint and putting a squeeze on financing.
Basically, until the capital markets stabilize and credit gets back to normal, it can be tough times for those who want to jump into the franchise game.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says that as consumers try to stretch their dining dollar, Darden, Yum! and McDonald's will benefit.
We all know we are overstored in this country and over-restauranted. There are tons of players -- so many that the competition got too hard. Now they collapse. That Uno might miss a payment, that Bennigan's and Steak & Ale are going away, that Bakers Square and Village Inn have filed for bankruptcy: All say the industry is in big trouble.
We read all of these horrible articles every day about restaurants, and yet we see that the stocks of Yum! and Darden hang in great, particularly the first, which gave hideous guidance and yet is now higher than it was before it told people commodity costs were hurting it. McDonald's? How many stocks just hit their 52-week high?
How would one describe today other than as a real disappointment? The DJIA broke 12,000 for the first time since March and the pressure here makes one wonder if that magic psychological level will hold. Oil was up over $136/barrel late in the day over strikes in Nigeria and lower inventories.
AMR Corp. (NYSE: AMR) saw another drop of almost 5% by the final minutes, down to $5.42, after the company presented its estimates on fuel use, costs and hedges today at a Merrill Lynch Global Transportation Conference.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Apple, Panera Bread and Amazon.com were today's noteworthy initiations:
Oppenheimer assumed coverage of Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) with an Outperform rating and $235 target. The firm expects 3G iPhone demand to be better than the Street currently expects.
Jefferies believes Panera Bread (NASDAQ:PNRA) can outperform Street expectations in 2009 and beyond given its operational initiatives and refined new unit development strategy. Shares were started with a Buy rating and $56 target.
Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) was initiated with a Market Perform rating and William Blair. The firm believes the current investor optimism leaves little room for share upside in the near-term.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
Citigroup initiated Staples (NASDAQ:SPLS) with a Buy rating and $28 target.
Deutsche Bank initiated Starent Networks (NASADAQ:STAR) with a Buy rating and $21 target.
Bidz.com (NASDAQ:BIDZ) was initiated at Merriman with a Buy rating.
Panera Bread Company (NASDAQ: PNRA) owns and franchises some 1,200 bakery-cafes, operating under the Panera Bread and Saint Louis Bread banners in 40 states. The stores offer specialty baked goods, made-to-order sandwiches, soups, salads and custom roasted coffees. They also provide free WiFi Internet access. Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ: SBUX) is a major competitor.
The company pleased investors last week, when it reported Q1 EPS of 47 cents and revenues of $305 million. Analysts had been expecting 39 cents and $302.8 million. Management also guided Q2 EPS to 40-44 cents (39 cent consensus) and FY08 EPS to $2.00-$2.11 ($2.02 consensus). The press release noted, "Company-owned comparable stores sales growth is targeted at 4% to 5% for the year, with approximately 5% of retail pricing expected."
Next week is sure to be filled with fun and volatile market conditions. The highlight will be the Fed decision on key rates, due on Wednesday, April 30, following a two-day meeting. Anytime the Fed has the floor, the markets listen. Tuesday and Wednesday will be filled with speculation up until the time of the announcement of a cut or pause.
There are many possible outcomes for this meeting, as we have seen a substantial change in investor sentiment regarding the potential need for further rate cuts. The buzz on the street is for a cut of 25 basis points and then a wait-and-see attitude from there. I think that is the most likely direction.
There has been a great deal of concern that all the recent rate cuts have not provided the benefit to consumers the economy needs. Clearly, there is a fatty clog within our financial circulatory system. Traditionally, the Fed likes to see how its actions trickle into the economy before it continues too far down one path, which would argue for a pause now. Plus, the Fed does not want to run out of ammunition by cutting rates too far too fast. But there is no question that we are dealing with a more aggressive Fed than we have seen in decades, so I think we will see another small rate cut.
Finally! Needing a place to park with your laptop but too far from a Panera Bread (NASDAQ: PNRA)? Finally, you can enjoy the soothing environment of Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX) for free ... well, for the price of a latte or two. The coffee king of Seattle is ending its Wi-Fi partnership with T-Mobile and linking up with AT&T (NYSE: T). The new deal is expected to roll out gradually beginning this spring.
The new plan, while not perfect, is certainly better for those of us who want to pop in for a quick email check or blog update. It provides each customer with 2 free hours of WiFi service per day, with additional 2-hour blocks available for $3.99. Monthly subscriptions will cost $19.99 and provide access to AT&T hotspots in other locations in addition to Starbucks branches.
If you are already an AT&T broadband customer, you are eligible for free Internet access at more than 7,000 Starbucks locations in the U.S.
Still in need of WiFi that's free all day, every day, regardless of your at-home broadband provider? Look for your closest Panera, or use an online Wi-Fi hot spot finder that can direct you to local coffee shops, book stores, and even gas stations that have the service.
Panera Bread Company (NASDAQ: PNRA) released on Tuesday 3Q 2007 earnings that indicate the company didn't raise much dough. Revenue was up 35% to $276 million, which sounds encouraging. But that revenue increase translated into a much lower increase in net income, 10%. Net income YTD 2007, $40 million, is exactly the same as net income YTD 2006, even though Panera has opened 35 new bakery-cafe locations in 3Q 2007 alone.
Same-store sales increased 2.6% during the quarter, yet average weekly sales were essentially flat. Diluted 3Q EPS was $0.37, an improvement over diluted EPS of $0.34 in 3Q 2006 until one factors in the $0.05 per share benefit from the resolution of a tax disagreement with the IRS. Without that benefit, actual EPS would have been $0.32 per share.
In effect, Panera is earning more revenue but making less money. Even CEO Ron Shaich admits Panera needs to "return to a record of strong earnings growth."
Panera is faced with a triple whammy. It has shifted its menu offerings away from lower cost soup and sandwiches to higher cost salads. Across the board, ingredients' costs are rising, as are labor costs. Yet the company remains optimistic, or perhaps just confused. Senior management forecasts same bakery-cafe sales growth of 1-3.5% for 4Q 2007 and same bakery-cafe sales growth of 1-4% for FY 2008. Unless that sales growth results in net income growth, the dough simply will not rise.
Investors have reacted negatively to the 3Q figures. The stock closed recently at $41.66, down $1.95 on the news.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Sanofi-Aventis, Lifecell, Mylan Labs, Panera Bread and Norsk Hydro were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Societe Generale upgraded shares of Sanofi-Aventis (NYSE: SNY) to Buy from Hold as they believe pipeline maturation over the next 12 months can drive the stock higher.
Piper upgraded shares of Lifecell (NASDAQ: LIFC) to Outperform from Market Perform after their recent survey indicated that AlloDerm remains the leading biologic hernia mesh on the market and competition is making little headway.
JP Morgan upgraded Mylan Labs (NYSE: MYL), Panera Bread (NASDAQ: PNRA) and Norsk Hydro (NYSE: NHY) to Overweight from Neutral. The firm upgraded Mylan based on its position in the global generics market and above-average growth; Panera was upgraded on valuation, as they believe the recent operating risk is now behind the company; Norsk Hydro was upgraded, as they believe the value of the company's aluminum assets are higher than the current share price suggests.
OTHER UPGRADES:
HSBC upgraded Ride Aid (NYSE: RAD) to Neutral from Underweight.
Panera Bread (NASDAQ: PNRA), an owner and franchisor of 1,115 bakery-cafes, is recently up $2.28 to $45.40.
PNRA reported that third quarter revenue increased 35% to $276 million compared to the year ago period.
Bear Stearns says: "Sales in line; guidance narrowed up versus consensus."
PNRA overall option implied volatility of 37 is above its 26-week average of 34 according to Track Data, suggesting slightly larger price risks.
JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM), a global financial holding company, closed at $46.78.
Bloomberg reported: "China may prevent foreign investors from taking control of domestic brokerages, a setback to Wall Street's ambitions to tap the world's fastest-growing stock market, people familiar with the planned rules said."
JPM is expected to report EPS on 10/17.
JPM October option implied volatility of 30 is above its 26-week average of 26 according to Track Data, suggesting larger risk.
Daily options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.
The past several months have not been kind to Panera Bread (NASDAQ: PNRA). The stock was trading near $70 last fall after several years of steady growth, then it started dropping early in October, made up some of that lost ground, and then took a real hit in June when the company lowered its expectations for the second quarter. Then, last week it lowered its expectations for the third quarter, which sent the stock down another 9%.
The main reason for these woes is decreased profitability. Analysts like Jeffrey Bernstein at Lehman Brothers have blamed rising commodity prices, while John Gloss of CIBC attributes it to commodities as well as labor costs. The company has looked to customer shifts from home-baked bread and muffins to outsourced products like scones and soufflés. Others have blamed rising fuel costs that have led to more customers staying home rather than driving to eat. Whatever the reason, PNRA's results have not been good, and investors have understandably been selling shares.
With few job opportunities, people are looking at starting up franchises. In fact, I recently talked to someone who said that the upcoming Franchise Expo conference has seen a doubling of registrations.
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Next week is sure to be filled with fun and volatile market conditions. The highlight will be the Fed decision on key rates, due on Wednesday, April 30, following a two-day meeting. Anytime the Fed has the floor, the markets listen. Tuesday and Wednesday will be filled with speculation up until the time of the announcement of a cut or pause.
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Panera Bread
The past several months have not been kind to 
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