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The only poll that really counts is the one on Election Day, Tuesday, November 4

Joseph Lazzaro — Sat, 01 Nov 2008 12:40:00 EST

Filed under: Politics, Presidential Elections

Most major polls have U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois, leading U.S. Sen. John McCain, R-Arizona, in the contest for U.S. president. And, if the election were held today, instead of on Tuesday, November 4, Election Day, Obama would register a decisive victory in the all-important electoral college, as well as in the popular vote.

As of late Friday, NPR.org's survey of polls had the electoral vote at Obama, 291, McCain 163. Four battleground states are still in play: Ohio, where Obama lead by 5%; Florida, Obama by 3.5%; Indiana, McCain by 1.7%; and Missouri, McCain by about 0.5%. Concerning the national vote, on Friday, Gallup.com's daily tracking poll had Obama leading McCain, 52% to 41%.

Still, as most political aides will tell you, "the only poll that really counts is the one on Election Day, Tuesday, November 4." In other words, polls can err; that's why they have a margin of error, typically +/- 2%.

Polls only recently have become more accurate. Some notable poll mistakes include the 1980 U.S. presidential election, when some polls had incumbent President Jimmy Carter, a Democrat slightly ahead of the challenger, then Gov. Ronald Reagan, a Republican. Reagan, of course won the 1980 election in a landslide.

Pres. Truman had the last laugh on pollers

But the biggest polling error in a presidential election has to be the 1948 election between President Harry S. Truman, a Democrat, and challenger Gov. Thomas E. Dewey, a Republican.

The polls predicted that Dewey would win by a large margin. They were wrong: Truman won a decisive victory, 303-189, in the electoral college.

Continue reading The only poll that really counts is the one on Election Day, Tuesday, November 4

The only poll that really counts is the one on Election Day, Tuesday, November 4 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 01 Nov 2008 12:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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The 2008 U.S. Presidential race heats up

Joseph Lazzaro — Tue, 09 Sep 2008 17:45:00 EST

Filed under: Politics, Presidential Elections

Although it may seem like it's been going on for a long time, the sprint called the U.S. presidential campaign has just started.

Maybe you just wish the race was over by now?

True, given the near-continual political coverage of the primaries and general election campaign on 24-hour, cable broadcast news networks MSNBC (NYSE: GE), CNN (NYSE: TWX), and Fox News (NYSE: NWS), it probably seems like the campaigns have been going on since the dawn of recorded history.

But, really, the political calculus becomes substantive after Labor Day, primarily because the polls are more telling. The summer polls are less-predictive/less-reliable because, in a nutshell, Americans have vacations and summer leisure activities on their minds.

The Gallup Poll

U.S. Senator John McCain, R-Arizona, has pushed ahead of U.S. Senator Barack Obama, D-Illinois, 49%-44%, in the Gallup tracking poll, as of interviews conducted through September 8. There are several, accurate polls one can monitor, but the recommendation here is to follow Gallup, given the organization's strong performance record in survey research.

Look for McCain's percentage to fall and Obama's percentage to rise as the 'bounce' that McCain received stemming from the Republican National Convention fades. Almost all candidates get a 'bounce,' or an increase in voter support, coming out of their party's nominating convention. But know also that at least a portion of this bounce typically disappears in a week or two. The conventions are largely four-day advertorials for the candidates and they tend to sway selected voters, but only temporarily. As the convention hype fades, voters look at the candidates more-critically, which accounts for the dip in support.

However, if McCain's bounce doesn't disappear before September 26, or if his support continues to increase, then most likely some other factor is at work, boosting the Republican U.S. Senator. And given her newness to the campaign and the national political stage, it's most likely Vice Presidential Nominee Gov. Sarah Palin, R-Alaska. But don't draw any conclusions about Palin yet: let's see what the Gallup Poll looks like in a week or so before forming any conclusions about her impact.

Continue reading The 2008 U.S. Presidential race heats up

The 2008 U.S. Presidential race heats up originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 09 Sep 2008 17:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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U.S. consumer sentiment remains near 28-year lows on declining home prices, tepid job market

Joseph Lazzaro — Fri, 11 Jul 2008 11:34:00 EST

Filed under: Forecasts, Other Issues, Bad News

U.S. consumer confidence in July remained near 28-year lows, an indication American adults continue to be concerned about rising energy and food prices, job layoffs, and the prospects for a U.S. economic recovery.

The Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said its reading of confidence rose just slightly to to 56.6 in July, from 56.4 in June. The index stood at 59.8 in May, 62.8 in April, and 69.5 in March, Reuters reported Friday.

The July reading was a scant rise and hardly a positive data point for the economy, given that June's reading was the index's lowest since May 1980 -- a period also characterized by high oil/gasoline prices and a sluggish U.S. economy.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had predicted that the May index would fall to 56.0.

Americans 'guarded and concerned' about economy

Economist Peter Dawson told BloggingStocks Friday July's consumer sentiment reading did nothing to shift his evaluation regarding the American people's stance toward the U.S. economy.

"The public remains guarded and concerned, with little optimism, save for a few, fortunate income and wealth segments. We have the most serious economic downturn in a decade, from the stand point of the typical person or employee. Consumers are seeing gasoline and food prices rise by the week, and they're concerned about job losses," Dawson said. "When you combine job worries with price rises just about everywhere you look, with a housing sector that shows little signs of recovery, and the lower home values that trend implies, it doesn't breed consumer confidence, so it's not surprising the [University of] Michigan survey reading is near its lowest point in decades."

Continue reading U.S. consumer sentiment remains near 28-year lows on declining home prices, tepid job market

U.S. consumer sentiment remains near 28-year lows on declining home prices, tepid job market originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 11 Jul 2008 11:34:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Obama closes gap with Clinton; McCain surges over Romney

Jonathan Berr — Sun, 03 Feb 2008 22:39:00 EST

Filed under: Politics, Presidential Elections

As voters prepare for the Super Tuesday primaries, Democrat Barack Obama is closing the gap with Hillary Clinton while GOP front-runner John McCain is surging ahead of Mitt Romney.

Obama's performance is remarkable. A Gallup poll shows the Illinois senator trails Clinton 44% To 46%, according to The Wall Street Journal. (subscription required). On January 20, Clinton had a 20 point lead over Obama. More significantly, Clinton now is in a statistical dead heat with Obama in California, one of the big prizes in Super Tuesday that was once considered a lock for the New York senator.

All hope isn't lost for Hillary Clinton. Polling data should be taken with a huge grain of salt at this point in the campaign. Nonetheless, Obama's rising popularity is hard to dispute. The Grateful Dead minus the late Jerry Garcia are reuniting for the first time in four years today for an Obama rally in -- where else -- San Francisco. During the last Democratic debate, Obama and Clinton were asked about whether they would ever join forces. That probably won't happen. For one thing, Clinton needs Obama more than Obama needs Clinton and given the nastiness of the campaign it seems doubtful that one would play second fiddle to the other.

As for the Republicans, it's about time to stick a fork in Mitt Romney. Polls show that McCain has a 2-to-1 lead over Romney, proving that all of the money in the world can make voters like you. Once McCain wins the nomination, you can bet that there will be plenty of photo opportunities of him looking fit and vigorous, particularly if Obama is the Democratic candidate.

The silly season has only just started.

Obama closes gap with Clinton; McCain surges over Romney originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 03 Feb 2008 22:39:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Would you vote for Lou Dobbs for president?

Joseph Lazzaro — Fri, 16 Nov 2007 14:29:00 EST

Filed under: Television, Media World, Politics, Presidential Elections

Sources close to CNN broadcast journalist/commentator Lou Dobbs said he is seriously considering a run for the U.S. presidency in 2008, The Wall Street Journal reported.

Dobbs, who formerly hosted CNN's MoneyLine business news show and currently hosts CNN's Lou Dobbs Tonight has seen both his ratings and his name recognition rise after his work's focus turned away from news reporting and anchoring and toward political and economic commentary.

Dobbs, an independent, displays an ideology and a political world view that many have characterized as a modified hybrid of Ralph Nader and Pat Buchanan -- i.e. populism combined with strong views against free trade (or current trade frameworks) and against illegal immigration.

Dobbs is a frequent critic of both the Democratic and Republican parties, which he argues don't represent the interests of the typical person or the middle class. His show's website describes him as "an independent populist and the leading media advocate for working men and women, their families, our middle class and the American way of life."

Political Analysis: Unless there's a tidal wave of discontent in the American electorate not tallied by pollsters, Dobbs, as a third-party candidate or as an Independent, has virtually no chance of being elected president of the United States. Although his name recognition is rising and he has a positive public image, it's highly unlikely Dobbs could assemble the campaign staff and money required to compete effectively against Democratic and Republican parties' nominees.

However, this is not to say that Dobbs could not broaden the discourse, i.e. "force the discussion of less-publicized issues" during a debate. Dobbs could accomplish this, but it must be emphasized that making points in a debate is a much easier task than receiving enough votes to win the electoral college vote for U.S. president.

Would you vote for Lou Dobbs for president? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 16 Nov 2007 14:29:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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