As of late Friday, NPR.org's survey of polls had the electoral vote at Obama, 291, McCain 163. Four battleground states are still in play: Ohio, where Obama lead by 5%; Florida, Obama by 3.5%; Indiana, McCain by 1.7%; and Missouri, McCain by about 0.5%. Concerning the national vote, on Friday, Gallup.com's daily tracking poll had Obama leading McCain, 52% to 41%.
Still, as most political aides will tell you, "the only poll that really counts is the one on Election Day, Tuesday, November 4." In other words, polls can err; that's why they have a margin of error, typically +/- 2%.
Although it may seem like it's been going on for a long time, the sprint called the U.S. presidential campaign has just started.
Maybe you just wish the race was over by now?
True, given the near-continual political coverage of the primaries and general election campaign on 24-hour, cable broadcast news networks MSNBC (NYSE: GE), CNN (NYSE: TWX), and Fox News (NYSE: NWS), it probably seems like the campaigns have been going on since the dawn of recorded history.
But, really, the political calculus becomes substantive after Labor Day, primarily because the polls are more telling. The summer polls are less-predictive/less-reliable because, in a nutshell, Americans have vacations and summer leisure activities on their minds. The Gallup Poll
Look for McCain's percentage to fall and Obama's percentage to rise as the 'bounce' that McCain received stemming from the Republican National Convention fades. Almost all candidates get a 'bounce,' or an increase in voter support, coming out of their party's nominating convention. But know also that at least a portion of this bounce typically disappears in a week or two. The conventions are largely four-day advertorials for the candidates and they tend to sway selected voters, but only temporarily. As the convention hype fades, voters look at the candidates more-critically, which accounts for the dip in support.
However, if McCain's bounce doesn't disappear before September 26, or if his support continues to increase, then most likely some other factor is at work, boosting the Republican U.S. Senator. And given her newness to the campaign and the national political stage, it's most likely Vice Presidential Nominee Gov. Sarah Palin, R-Alaska. But don't draw any conclusions about Palin yet: let's see what the Gallup Poll looks like in a week or so before forming any conclusions about her impact.
U.S. consumer confidence in July remained near 28-year lows, an indication American adults continue to be concerned about rising energy and food prices, job layoffs, and the prospects for a U.S. economic recovery.
The July reading was a scant rise and hardly a positive data point for the economy, given that June's reading was the index's lowest since May 1980 -- a period also characterized by high oil/gasoline prices and a sluggish U.S. economy.
Economist Peter Dawson told BloggingStocks Friday July's consumer sentiment reading did nothing to shift his evaluation regarding the American people's stance toward the U.S. economy.
"The public remains guarded and concerned, with little optimism, save for a few, fortunate income and wealth segments. We have the most serious economic downturn in a decade, from the stand point of the typical person or employee. Consumers are seeing gasoline and food prices rise by the week, and they're concerned about job losses," Dawson said. "When you combine job worries with price rises just about everywhere you look, with a housing sector that shows little signs of recovery, and the lower home values that trend implies, it doesn't breed consumer confidence, so it's not surprising the [University of] Michigan survey reading is near its lowest point in decades."
U.S. consumer confidence in early June plunged to its lowest level in 28 years, an indication American adults are becoming increasingly concerned about rising energy and food prices, job layoffs, and the prospects for a U.S. economic recovery.
As voters prepare for the Super Tuesday primaries, Democrat Barack Obama is closing the gap with Hillary Clinton while GOP front-runner John McCain is surging ahead of Mitt Romney.
Obama's performance is remarkable. A Gallup poll shows the Illinois senator trails Clinton 44% To 46%, according to The Wall Street Journal. (subscription required). On January 20, Clinton had a 20 point lead over Obama. More significantly, Clinton now is in a statistical dead heat with Obama in California, one of the big prizes in Super Tuesday that was once considered a lock for the New York senator.
All hope isn't lost for Hillary Clinton. Polling data should be taken with a huge grain of salt at this point in the campaign. Nonetheless, Obama's rising popularity is hard to dispute. The Grateful Dead minus the late Jerry Garcia are reuniting for the first time in four years today for an Obama rally in -- where else -- San Francisco. During the last Democratic debate, Obama and Clinton were asked about whether they would ever join forces. That probably won't happen. For one thing, Clinton needs Obama more than Obama needs Clinton and given the nastiness of the campaign it seems doubtful that one would play second fiddle to the other.
As for the Republicans, it's about time to stick a fork in Mitt Romney. Polls show that McCain has a 2-to-1 lead over Romney, proving that all of the money in the world can make voters like you. Once McCain wins the nomination, you can bet that there will be plenty of photo opportunities of him looking fit and vigorous, particularly if Obama is the Democratic candidate.
Want to know how much the Republicans are the creek in this presidential election? A Bloomberg News/Los Angeles Times poll found that voters believe Democrats are better able to handle the economy than President George W. Bush by a margin of 51% to 29%.
Moreover, more than two-thirds respondents said they believed the economy was doing badly, up from 56% in December. More people -- about 80% -- see a recession as likely, up from 71%. A Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll found similar results.
Is it any wonder that President Bush buried the bipartisan hatchet and worked out a fiscal stimulus package?
Wouldn't the economy have gotten more of a kick if unemployment insurance was extended?
That issue will be hotly debated when the bill gets to the Senate. Sen. Max Baucus, the chair of the Senate Tax Committee, told the Wall Street Journal that leaving it out was a "mistake." Let's hope the new spirit of bipartisanship in Washington lasts a little longer.
But I wonder whether sending tax rebates -- mine would be about $1,500 -- will really stimulate the economy? Odds are pretty good that my wife and I are going to wind up handing a lot of that money right back to Uncle Sam which isn't very stimulating if you ask me.
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson could teach Little Orphan Annie a thing or two about optimism.
In an interview with the Wall Street Journal [subscription required], he again told investors that the sun will come out tomorrow. Heck, in his world the sun continues to shine as bright as ever.
"I believe we're going to continue to grow," Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said in an interview with the paper. "I've always said these credit-market problems weren't going to work themselves out quickly. And the housing-credit market, the price of oil -- these are the risks. But we have a very diverse, healthy economy. "
Most voters -- who are scared out out of their wits by a crashing real estate market, rising energy prices and a volatile stock market -- would beg to differ. In fact, 52% of Americans say the economy and health care are the most important issue to them compared with 34% who cite terrorism and moral issues, which is the reverse of the polling before the 2004 election, according to the Journal.
Is it any wonder that people are getting worked up into a frenzy over illegal immigration? The average person -- the ones who can't tell a stock from a bond -- are scared to death about the economy. Free market conservatives like Paulson forget that many people don't have as much faith in markets as they do.
Sources close to CNN broadcast journalist/commentator Lou Dobbs said he is seriously considering a run for the U.S. presidency in 2008, The Wall Street Journal reported.
Dobbs, who formerly hosted CNN's MoneyLine business news show and currently hosts CNN's Lou Dobbs Tonight has seen both his ratings and his name recognition rise after his work's focus turned away from news reporting and anchoring and toward political and economic commentary.
Dobbs, an independent, displays an ideology and a political world view that many have characterized as a modified hybrid of Ralph Nader and Pat Buchanan -- i.e. populism combined with strong views against free trade (or current trade frameworks) and against illegal immigration.
Dobbs is a frequent critic of both the Democratic and Republican parties, which he argues don't represent the interests of the typical person or the middle class. His show's website describes him as "an independent populist and the leading media advocate for working men and women, their families, our middle class and the American way of life."
Political Analysis: Unless there's a tidal wave of discontent in the American electorate not tallied by pollsters, Dobbs, as a third-party candidate or as an Independent, has virtually no chance of being elected president of the United States. Although his name recognition is rising and he has a positive public image, it's highly unlikely Dobbs could assemble the campaign staff and money required to compete effectively against Democratic and Republican parties' nominees.
However, this is not to say that Dobbs could not broaden the discourse, i.e. "force the discussion of less-publicized issues" during a debate. Dobbs could accomplish this, but it must be emphasized that making points in a debate is a much easier task than receiving enough votes to win the electoral college vote for U.S. president.
Reuters reports that two-thirds of Americans think the U.S. is in, or soon will be in, a recession. This despite the recent report from the Commerce Department that GDP grew 3.4% in the second quarter of 2007.
Are two-thirds of Americans just plain stupid? I don't think so. As John Edwards correctly pointed out during his 2004 run, there are two Americas. The first America -- occupied by hedge fund and private equity grandees, investment bankers, and oil executives -- is a wonderful world where it's easy to make hundreds of millions of dollars a year. For those first Americans, this is truly the best of times.
Then there are the second Americans, the other 99.9%. Unlike the First Americans, they have limited ability to influence economic and tax policy. They have been borrowing on their homes and using credit cards to make up for stagnant wage growth. Meanwhile, their housing, health care, education, and energy bills have been skyrocketing.
We at Blogging Stocks are covering more earning reports of our favorite stocks than ever before. And you may have noticed the polls that have started popping up in our earnings previews -- yes, you now have the opportunity to show your stuff.
Before the earnings reports of each of the companies listed below, we'll give you a chance to make your prediction whether they will meet, beat, or fall short of expectations. Take a look at the news and the numbers at the links below, and make up your own mind. But the question is, can you and your fellow Blogging Stocks readers do better than the analysts and market experts? You'll never know unless you cast your votes.
Note: We'll update this post frequently, and point you back here from time to time.
Intel Corp. (NASDAQ:INTC) reported 1/16. This poll is closed -- 52% of you agreed with analysts that INTC would beat expectations, and it did.
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) reported 1/17. This poll is closed -- 86% of you agreed with analysts that AAPL would beat expectations, which it did.
IBM Corp. (NYSE:IBM) reported 1/18. This poll is closed -- 75% of you thought IBM would beat analysts' expectations, which it did.
Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C) reported 1/19. This poll is closed -- 45% of you agreed with analysts that Citigroup would only meet expectations, but it came in just ahead.
Motorola Inc. (NYSE:MOT) reported 1/19. This poll is closed -- 46% of you agreed with analysts that MOT would fall short of expectations, when in fact they met them.
General Electric Co. (NYSE:GE) reported 1/19. This poll is closed -- 59% of you were more optimistic that analysts and though GE would beat expectations, but it didn't.
Pfizer Inc. (NYSE:PFE) reports 1/22. This poll is closed -- 42% of you agreed with analysts that PFE would meet expectations, which it did.
Advance Micro Devices Inc. (NYSE:AMD) reported 1/23. This poll is closed -- analysts had low expectations, but 42% thought AMD would miss anyway, which it did.
Sun Microsystems Inc. (NASDAQ:SUNW) reported 1/23. This poll is closed -- a whopping 72% of you agreed with analysts that SUNW would beat expectations, which, no surprise, it did.
Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) reported 1/23. This poll is closed -- 59% of you agreed with estimates that JNJ would beat expectations, which it did.
Yahoo Inc. (NASDAQ:YHOO) reported 1/23. This poll is closed -- sorry but 39% of you thought Yahoo would just meet expectations, when in fact it offered an upside surprise.
McDonald's Corp. (NYSE:MCD) reported 1/24. This poll is closed -- 72% of you agreed with analysts and MCD's own forecast that it would beat expectations, which of course it did.
eBay Inc. (NASDAQ:EBAY) reported 1/24. This poll is closed -- another strong showing, 70% of you, for eBay to beat expectations, and it did.
AT&T Inc. (NYSE:T) reported 1/25. This poll is closed -- AT&T beat expectations again, as analysts and 72% of believed would happen.
Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT) reported 1/25. This poll is closed -- a tough call, with 45% of you chosing beat and 40% chosing meet, but beat expectations MSFT did.
Ford Motor Co. (NYSE:F) reported 1/25. This poll is closed -- despite low expectations, you were split 35%, 34%, 31% for beat, meet, and miss, respectively, and Ford did fall short.
General Motors Corp. (NYSE:GM) reported 3/14. This poll is closed -- 52% of you thought GM will beat expectations, but after weeks of delays it finally came out that GM missed expectations.
Sony Corp. (NYSE:SNE) reported 1/30. This poll is closed -- 59% of you agreed with analysts that Sony would miss expectations, and despite some good news, it did fall short.
Merck & Co. (NYSE:MRK) reported 1/30. This poll is closed -- 68% of you were more optimistic than analysts and voted for beat, but unfortunately Merck's profits fell.
Starbucks Corp. (NASDAQ:SBUX) reported 1/31. This poll is closed -- 64% of you voted for SBUX to beat expectations, but earnings were in line with them.
Time Warner Inc. (NYSE:TWX) reported 1/31. This poll is closed -- 73% of you were more optimistic than analysts, but they called it -- TWX earnings met expectations.
Boeing Co. (NYSE:BA) reported 1/31. This poll is closed -- 80% of you looked for Boeing to beat analysts' expectations, and it did.
Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) reported 2/1. This poll is closed -- 48% of you looked for Amazon to beat expectations, and it did.
Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE:XOM) reported 2/1. This poll is closed -- only 43% of you thought XOM would beat analysts' expectations, but it did.
Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ:CSCO) reported 2/6. This poll is closed -- 80% of you voted that Cisco would beat expectations, and it has.
Walt Disney Co. (NYSE:DIS) reported 2/7. This poll is closed -- 65% of you thought Disney still had the magic, and indeed it did beat expectations.
PepsiCo Inc. (NYSE:PEP) reported 2/8. This poll is closed -- the 87% of you who voted for Pepsi to beat expectations were too optimistic.
Coca-Cola Co. (NYSE:KO) reported 2/14. This poll is closed -- two-thirds of you thought Coke would beat expectations again, which it did.
Home Depot Inc. (NYSE:HD) reported 2/20. This poll is closed -- 57% of you expected HD to fall short, but it met analysts expectations.
XM Satellite Radio Inc. (NASDAQ:XMSR) reported 2/26. This poll is closed -- 57% of you thought XM would fall short of the consensus, but it squeaked out ahead.
Everyone is focused on the results of the Fed meeting which will be released Wednesday. My forecast, along with that of most others, is that the Fed will leave rates unchanged. I also believe that Fed language will emphasize a continuing focus on core inflation, leaving open the possibility of a rate increase but nothing more. This will be, in effect, a continuation of the status quo. No news, just more noise.
However, the real action may be where no one seems to be looking -- the polls for the upcoming Congressional election. Everyone in the mainstream media is forecasting a massive defeat for the Republicans, possibly in both houses of Congress similar to what happened to the Democrats in 1994.
Gridlock in history has been considered to be good for the equity markets because it restrains the extremes of both parties. In 1994, the Republican takeover of Congress forced Bill Clinton to the center and began the prosperity of the 1990's. However, this time things may be different.
A massive Democratic majority in the House along with a smaller one in the Senate could create the worst of both worlds. Democrats firmly in control would attempt huge social spending to reward their base and prepare for the 2008 elections. Republicans would respond with spending bills and tax cuts to satisfy their constituencies. Unlike earlier Republican Heads of State, President Bush's focus has been on winning elections instead of balancing the budget. Fiscal responsibility would become a secondary priority for both parties adding to inflationary pressures and possibly causing the Fed to adopt a more hawkish tone.
Much of this depends upon whether the Republican base stays home on Election Day. If it does, the above scenario becomes likely. However, this is by no means certain. Editorials by John Podhoretz and Dick Morris cite data from Pollster Mark Rasmussen that shows that the Republican base may be more scared of the Democratic leadership than disgusted by a Republican Congress. If this is true, Republican losses may be less than anticipated.
A Republican loss of the House while retaining control of the Senate would result in the gridlock scenario favorable for the equity markets. Even if one party gains control of both branches of Congress, it will be by very slim majorities. No one would be able to accomplish much with the extremes of both parties being restrained from fiscal spending to pacify their respective bases. This would allow the slowing economic scenario desired by the Fed to unfold, with no need to raise rates.
As Election Day approaches, it may be the voters who determine what the Fed will do.
Doug Roberts is the Founder and Chief Investment Strategist for FollowtheFed.com, an independent research firm focusing on investment strategies using the Federal Reserve's impact on the stock prices. He previously held executive positions at Morgan Stanley Group and Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.
Although it may seem like it's been going on for a long time, the sprint called the U.S. presidential campaign has just started.
As voters prepare for the Super Tuesday primaries, Democrat Barack Obama is closing the gap with Hillary Clinton while GOP front-runner John McCain is surging ahead of Mitt Romney.
Want to know how much the Republicans are the creek in this presidential election? 
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