BloggingStocks http://www.bloggingstocks.com BloggingStocks http://www.blogsmithmedia.com/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/media/feedlogo.gif BloggingStocks http://www.bloggingstocks.com en-us Copyright 2012 Weblogs, Inc. The contents of this feed are available for non-commercial use only. Blogsmith http://www.blogsmith.com/<![CDATA[President Obama's Approval Rating Dips to 'Area of Concern' Level]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2010/01/12/president-obama-s-approval-rating-dips-to-area-of-concern-leve/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2010/01/12/president-obama-s-approval-rating-dips-to-area-of-concern-leve/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2010/01/12/president-obama-s-approval-rating-dips-to-area-of-concern-leve/#commentsFiled under: ,

President Barack Obama's approval rating has entered 'the area of concern' zone.

The president's approval rating slipped to 46% in January from 50% in December 2009, according to a new CBS News poll, CBSNews.com reported Tuesday.

President Obama still has very strong support among Democrats, about an 80% approval rating, but his approval rating has slipped among Independents, down 10 percentage points to 42%. Obama's approval rating among Republicans is low: only 13% approve of the president's performance.

Continue reading President Obama's Approval Rating Dips to 'Area of Concern' Level

President Obama's Approval Rating Dips to 'Area of Concern' Level originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 12 Jan 2010 18:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>ObamapollsTue, 12 Jan 2010 18:00:00 EST<![CDATA[Poll: Americans more-optimistic about U.S. economy, president's performance]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/04/07/poll-americans-more-optimistic-about-u-s-economy-presidents/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/04/07/poll-americans-more-optimistic-about-u-s-economy-presidents/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/04/07/poll-americans-more-optimistic-about-u-s-economy-presidents/#commentsFiled under: , ,

Despite a deepening job slump and few signs that the recession that began in December 2007 is nearing an end, Americans have grown more optimistic about the U.S. economy and the country's direction in the 11 weeks since the inauguration of President Obama, the latest New York Times/CBS News poll shows.

Further, Americans approve of President Obama's handling of the economy, foreign policy, (wars in Iraq and Afghanistan), and two-thirds said they approved of his overall job performance.

Continue reading Poll: Americans more-optimistic about U.S. economy, president's performance

Poll: Americans more-optimistic about U.S. economy, president's performance originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 07 Apr 2009 15:50:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>approval ratingCBSCBS Corp.Democratic PartyNew York TimesNYTObamaoptimismpollsPresident Obamapublic opinionRepublican Partysurvey researchTue, 07 Apr 2009 15:50:00 EST<![CDATA[When evaluating economic polls, subtract 15-20% ]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/01/20/when-evaluating-economic-polls-subtract-15-20/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/01/20/when-evaluating-economic-polls-subtract-15-20/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/01/20/when-evaluating-economic-polls-subtract-15-20/#commentsFiled under: , ,

A note on economic polls: when evaluating them, subtract 15-20%. Case in point: U.S. public opinion toward outgoing President George W. Bush.

A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll taken in December 2008 found the following:

Despite the worst U.S. recession in decades, rising unemployment, declining median incomes, unprecedented home foreclosures, massive U.S. government borrowing to bailout / rescue the bank sector, and the lowest job creation of any eight-year president in the modern era, the poll found that:
  • 23% of the American people said they would miss Bush, 25% said Bush managed government effectively, and about a third said he would go down in history as a good president.
Roughly a third of Americans viewing Bush as a good president?, with 25% saying he managed the government effectively? What's going on here?

Who are these people? Upper-income Americans or strong Republicans?

Exactly: either, or possibly both, which is why you need to deduct 15-20% when reading a poll, to gauge a president's support, particularly on economic issues.

Continue reading When evaluating economic polls, subtract 15-20%

When evaluating economic polls, subtract 15-20% originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 20 Jan 2009 13:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>BushBush administrationGeorge W. Bushpollspublic opinionsurvey researchSurveyResearchU.S. economyTue, 20 Jan 2009 13:10:00 EST<![CDATA[People like Obama but don't expect much]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/12/10/people-like-obama-but-dont-expect-much/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/12/10/people-like-obama-but-dont-expect-much/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/12/10/people-like-obama-but-dont-expect-much/#commentsFiled under: , ,

Most Americans like Barack Obama even though they don't think he will do them much good.

According to a Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll, more than half of respondents say that the president-elect will not be able to help their personal finances. Almost seven in 10 expect Obama to accomplish only a few of his campaign goals.

Perhaps their cynicism is justified. All of the available data indicates that the economy is going to get worse. Retail sales are expected to be dismal this holiday season. Housing probably will not bottom until next year at the earliest.

Interestingly, people are willing to give Obama the benefit of the doubt. People who responded to the poll say Obama makes them feel "hopeful," "optimistic" and "proud," which is incredible. People know the economy is bad, so bad that they believe a man with limited experience in Washington can do a better job than the president who has lead the country for the past eight years.

"Outside of the economy, Americans rate the Iraq War, followed by health care, as the most pressing issues, with energy and tax cuts trailing," Bloomberg says. "And more than two-thirds trust the president-elect on national security, even though he was criticized for his lack of experience in that area during the campaign."

We are living in interesting times.

People like Obama but don't expect much originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 10 Dec 2008 11:38:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>barack obamaBarackObamabloombergblooomberg LPBlooombergLpeconomyinthenewsObamapollstaxesWed, 10 Dec 2008 11:38:00 EST<![CDATA[The only poll that really counts is the one on Election Day, Tuesday, November 4]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/11/01/the-only-poll-that-really-counts-is-the-one-on-election-day-tue/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/11/01/the-only-poll-that-really-counts-is-the-one-on-election-day-tue/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/11/01/the-only-poll-that-really-counts-is-the-one-on-election-day-tue/#commentsFiled under: ,

Most major polls have U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois, leading U.S. Sen. John McCain, R-Arizona, in the contest for U.S. president. And, if the election were held today, instead of on Tuesday, November 4, Election Day, Obama would register a decisive victory in the all-important electoral college, as well as in the popular vote.

As of late Friday, NPR.org's survey of polls had the electoral vote at Obama, 291, McCain 163. Four battleground states are still in play: Ohio, where Obama lead by 5%; Florida, Obama by 3.5%; Indiana, McCain by 1.7%; and Missouri, McCain by about 0.5%. Concerning the national vote, on Friday, Gallup.com's daily tracking poll had Obama leading McCain, 52% to 41%.

Still, as most political aides will tell you, "the only poll that really counts is the one on Election Day, Tuesday, November 4." In other words, polls can err; that's why they have a margin of error, typically +/- 2%.

Polls only recently have become more accurate. Some notable poll mistakes include the 1980 U.S. presidential election, when some polls had incumbent President Jimmy Carter, a Democrat slightly ahead of the challenger, then Gov. Ronald Reagan, a Republican. Reagan, of course won the 1980 election in a landslide.

Pres. Truman had the last laugh on pollers

But the biggest polling error in a presidential election has to be the 1948 election between President Harry S. Truman, a Democrat, and challenger Gov. Thomas E. Dewey, a Republican.

The polls predicted that Dewey would win by a large margin. They were wrong: Truman won a decisive victory, 303-189, in the electoral college.

Continue reading The only poll that really counts is the one on Election Day, Tuesday, November 4

The only poll that really counts is the one on Election Day, Tuesday, November 4 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 01 Nov 2008 12:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>2008 electionBarack ObamaJohn McCainMcCainObamapollingpollssurvey researchU.S. PresidencyvotersvotingSat, 01 Nov 2008 12:40:00 EST<![CDATA[The 2008 U.S. Presidential race heats up]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/09/09/the-2008-u-s-presidential-race-heats-up/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/09/09/the-2008-u-s-presidential-race-heats-up/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/09/09/the-2008-u-s-presidential-race-heats-up/#commentsFiled under: ,

Although it may seem like it's been going on for a long time, the sprint called the U.S. presidential campaign has just started.

Maybe you just wish the race was over by now?

True, given the near-continual political coverage of the primaries and general election campaign on 24-hour, cable broadcast news networks MSNBC (NYSE: GE), CNN (NYSE: TWX), and Fox News (NYSE: NWS), it probably seems like the campaigns have been going on since the dawn of recorded history.

But, really, the political calculus becomes substantive after Labor Day, primarily because the polls are more telling. The summer polls are less-predictive/less-reliable because, in a nutshell, Americans have vacations and summer leisure activities on their minds.

The Gallup Poll

U.S. Senator John McCain, R-Arizona, has pushed ahead of U.S. Senator Barack Obama, D-Illinois, 49%-44%, in the Gallup tracking poll, as of interviews conducted through September 8. There are several, accurate polls one can monitor, but the recommendation here is to follow Gallup, given the organization's strong performance record in survey research.

Look for McCain's percentage to fall and Obama's percentage to rise as the 'bounce' that McCain received stemming from the Republican National Convention fades. Almost all candidates get a 'bounce,' or an increase in voter support, coming out of their party's nominating convention. But know also that at least a portion of this bounce typically disappears in a week or two. The conventions are largely four-day advertorials for the candidates and they tend to sway selected voters, but only temporarily. As the convention hype fades, voters look at the candidates more-critically, which accounts for the dip in support.

However, if McCain's bounce doesn't disappear before September 26, or if his support continues to increase, then most likely some other factor is at work, boosting the Republican U.S. Senator. And given her newness to the campaign and the national political stage, it's most likely Vice Presidential Nominee Gov. Sarah Palin, R-Alaska. But don't draw any conclusions about Palin yet: let's see what the Gallup Poll looks like in a week or so before forming any conclusions about her impact.

Continue reading The 2008 U.S. Presidential race heats up

The 2008 U.S. Presidential race heats up originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 09 Sep 2008 17:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>2008 electionBarack Obamabattleground statesDemocratselectoral collegeelectoral votesGallup PollIndependentsJohn McCainMcCainObamapollingpollspresidential debatesRepublicanssurvey researchU.S. PresidencyvotersvotingTue, 09 Sep 2008 17:45:00 EST<![CDATA[U.S. consumer sentiment remains near 28-year lows on declining home prices, tepid job market]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/07/11/u-s-consumer-sentiment-remains-near-28-year-lows-on-declining-h/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/07/11/u-s-consumer-sentiment-remains-near-28-year-lows-on-declining-h/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/07/11/u-s-consumer-sentiment-remains-near-28-year-lows-on-declining-h/#commentsFiled under: , ,

U.S. consumer confidence in July remained near 28-year lows, an indication American adults continue to be concerned about rising energy and food prices, job layoffs, and the prospects for a U.S. economic recovery.

The Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said its reading of confidence rose just slightly to to 56.6 in July, from 56.4 in June. The index stood at 59.8 in May, 62.8 in April, and 69.5 in March, Reuters reported Friday.

The July reading was a scant rise and hardly a positive data point for the economy, given that June's reading was the index's lowest since May 1980 -- a period also characterized by high oil/gasoline prices and a sluggish U.S. economy.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had predicted that the May index would fall to 56.0.

Americans 'guarded and concerned' about economy

Economist Peter Dawson told BloggingStocks Friday July's consumer sentiment reading did nothing to shift his evaluation regarding the American people's stance toward the U.S. economy.

"The public remains guarded and concerned, with little optimism, save for a few, fortunate income and wealth segments. We have the most serious economic downturn in a decade, from the stand point of the typical person or employee. Consumers are seeing gasoline and food prices rise by the week, and they're concerned about job losses," Dawson said. "When you combine job worries with price rises just about everywhere you look, with a housing sector that shows little signs of recovery, and the lower home values that trend implies, it doesn't breed consumer confidence, so it's not surprising the [University of] Michigan survey reading is near its lowest point in decades."

Continue reading U.S. consumer sentiment remains near 28-year lows on declining home prices, tepid job market

U.S. consumer sentiment remains near 28-year lows on declining home prices, tepid job market originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 11 Jul 2008 11:34:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>consumer sentimentgdpinthenewspollingpollsReuters University of Michigan Surveys of ConsumersU.S. economyFri, 11 Jul 2008 11:34:00 EST<![CDATA[Consumer confidence hits 28-year low in June, says U. Michigan survey]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/06/13/consumer-confidence-hits-28-year-low-in-june-says-u-michigan-s/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/06/13/consumer-confidence-hits-28-year-low-in-june-says-u-michigan-s/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/06/13/consumer-confidence-hits-28-year-low-in-june-says-u-michigan-s/#commentsFiled under: , ,

U.S. consumer confidence in early June plunged to its lowest level in 28 years, an indication American adults are becoming increasingly concerned about rising energy and food prices, job layoffs, and the prospects for a U.S. economic recovery.

The Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said its reading of confidence fell to 56.7 in June from 59.8 in May.

It was the index's lowest reading since May 1980 -- a period also characterized by high oil/gasoline prices and a sluggish U.S. economy.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had predicted that the May index would fall to 59.8. The index stood at 62.8 in April 2008 and 69.5 in March.

U.S. public: jittery

Economist Peter Dawson told BloggingStocks Friday, June's consumer sentiment reading shows an American public "with a warranted case of the jitters."

Continue reading Consumer confidence hits 28-year low in June, says U. Michigan survey

Consumer confidence hits 28-year low in June, says U. Michigan survey originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 13 Jun 2008 11:56:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>consumer confidencefood pricesgdpinthenewsjobsoil pricespollsReuters University of Michigan Surveys of ConsumerssurveysU.S. economyFri, 13 Jun 2008 11:56:00 EST<![CDATA[Obama closes gap with Clinton; McCain surges over Romney]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/02/03/obama-closes-gap-with-clinton-mccain-surges-over-romney/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/02/03/obama-closes-gap-with-clinton-mccain-surges-over-romney/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/02/03/obama-closes-gap-with-clinton-mccain-surges-over-romney/#commentsFiled under: ,

As voters prepare for the Super Tuesday primaries, Democrat Barack Obama is closing the gap with Hillary Clinton while GOP front-runner John McCain is surging ahead of Mitt Romney.

Obama's performance is remarkable. A Gallup poll shows the Illinois senator trails Clinton 44% To 46%, according to The Wall Street Journal. (subscription required). On January 20, Clinton had a 20 point lead over Obama. More significantly, Clinton now is in a statistical dead heat with Obama in California, one of the big prizes in Super Tuesday that was once considered a lock for the New York senator.

All hope isn't lost for Hillary Clinton. Polling data should be taken with a huge grain of salt at this point in the campaign. Nonetheless, Obama's rising popularity is hard to dispute. The Grateful Dead minus the late Jerry Garcia are reuniting for the first time in four years today for an Obama rally in -- where else -- San Francisco. During the last Democratic debate, Obama and Clinton were asked about whether they would ever join forces. That probably won't happen. For one thing, Clinton needs Obama more than Obama needs Clinton and given the nastiness of the campaign it seems doubtful that one would play second fiddle to the other.

As for the Republicans, it's about time to stick a fork in Mitt Romney. Polls show that McCain has a 2-to-1 lead over Romney, proving that all of the money in the world can make voters like you. Once McCain wins the nomination, you can bet that there will be plenty of photo opportunities of him looking fit and vigorous, particularly if Obama is the Democratic candidate.

The silly season has only just started.




Obama closes gap with Clinton; McCain surges over Romney originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 03 Feb 2008 22:39:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>barack obamaBarackObamademocratshillary clintonHillaryClintonjohn mccainJohnMccainmitt romneyMittRomneypollingpollsrepublicansSun, 03 Feb 2008 22:39:00 EST<![CDATA[Democrats can solve the recession, polls say]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/01/25/democrats-can-solve-the-recession-polls-say/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/01/25/democrats-can-solve-the-recession-polls-say/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/01/25/democrats-can-solve-the-recession-polls-say/#commentsFiled under: , ,

Want to know how much the Republicans are the creek in this presidential election? A Bloomberg News/Los Angeles Times poll found that voters believe Democrats are better able to handle the economy than President George W. Bush by a margin of 51% to 29%.

Moreover, more than two-thirds respondents said they believed the economy was doing badly, up from 56% in December. More people -- about 80% -- see a recession as likely, up from 71%. A Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll found similar results.

Is it any wonder that President Bush buried the bipartisan hatchet and worked out a fiscal stimulus package?

Wouldn't the economy have gotten more of a kick if unemployment insurance was extended?

That issue will be hotly debated when the bill gets to the Senate. Sen. Max Baucus, the chair of the Senate Tax Committee, told the Wall Street Journal that leaving it out was a "mistake." Let's hope the new spirit of bipartisanship in Washington lasts a little longer.

But I wonder whether sending tax rebates -- mine would be about $1,500 -- will really stimulate the economy? Odds are pretty good that my wife and I are going to wind up handing a lot of that money right back to Uncle Sam which isn't very stimulating if you ask me.



Democrats can solve the recession, polls say originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 25 Jan 2008 10:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>economic stimulusEconomicStimulusfeaturedpollspresident bushPresidentBushpresidential electionPresidentialElectionFri, 25 Jan 2008 10:15:00 EST<![CDATA[Economy is top issue for voters]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/12/04/economy-is-top-issue-for-voters/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/12/04/economy-is-top-issue-for-voters/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/12/04/economy-is-top-issue-for-voters/#commentsFiled under: , ,

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson could teach Little Orphan Annie a thing or two about optimism.

In an interview with the Wall Street Journal [subscription required], he again told investors that the sun will come out tomorrow. Heck, in his world the sun continues to shine as bright as ever.

"I believe we're going to continue to grow," Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said in an interview with the paper. "I've always said these credit-market problems weren't going to work themselves out quickly. And the housing-credit market, the price of oil -- these are the risks. But we have a very diverse, healthy economy. "

Most voters -- who are scared out out of their wits by a crashing real estate market, rising energy prices and a volatile stock market -- would beg to differ. In fact, 52% of Americans say the economy and health care are the most important issue to them compared with 34% who cite terrorism and moral issues, which is the reverse of the polling before the 2004 election, according to the Journal.

Is it any wonder that people are getting worked up into a frenzy over illegal immigration? The average person -- the ones who can't tell a stock from a bond -- are scared to death about the economy. Free market conservatives like Paulson forget that many people don't have as much faith in markets as they do.

Economy is top issue for voters originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 04 Dec 2007 08:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>economyhank paulsonHankPaulsonhousing marketHousingMarketpoliticspollssubprime mortgagesSubprimeMortgagesTue, 04 Dec 2007 08:45:00 EST<![CDATA[Would you vote for Lou Dobbs for president?]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/11/16/would-you-vote-for-lou-dobbs-for-president/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/11/16/would-you-vote-for-lou-dobbs-for-president/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/11/16/would-you-vote-for-lou-dobbs-for-president/#commentsFiled under: , , ,

Sources close to CNN broadcast journalist/commentator Lou Dobbs said he is seriously considering a run for the U.S. presidency in 2008, The Wall Street Journal reported.

Dobbs, who formerly hosted CNN's MoneyLine business news show and currently hosts CNN's Lou Dobbs Tonight has seen both his ratings and his name recognition rise after his work's focus turned away from news reporting and anchoring and toward political and economic commentary.

Dobbs, an independent, displays an ideology and a political world view that many have characterized as a modified hybrid of Ralph Nader and Pat Buchanan -- i.e. populism combined with strong views against free trade (or current trade frameworks) and against illegal immigration.

Dobbs is a frequent critic of both the Democratic and Republican parties, which he argues don't represent the interests of the typical person or the middle class. His show's website describes him as "an independent populist and the leading media advocate for working men and women, their families, our middle class and the American way of life."

Political Analysis: Unless there's a tidal wave of discontent in the American electorate not tallied by pollsters, Dobbs, as a third-party candidate or as an Independent, has virtually no chance of being elected president of the United States. Although his name recognition is rising and he has a positive public image, it's highly unlikely Dobbs could assemble the campaign staff and money required to compete effectively against Democratic and Republican parties' nominees.

However, this is not to say that Dobbs could not broaden the discourse, i.e. "force the discussion of less-publicized issues" during a debate. Dobbs could accomplish this, but it must be emphasized that making points in a debate is a much easier task than receiving enough votes to win the electoral college vote for U.S. president.

Would you vote for Lou Dobbs for president? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 16 Nov 2007 14:29:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>2008 electionBuchananbusiness news showsCable News NetworkCNNcommentaryDemocratic PartyDemocratsDobbselectionsfree tradeimmigrationIndependentsLou DobbsLou Dobbs Tonightmiddle classNaderPat Buchananpolitical commentarypoliticspollingpollspopulismpresidential electionRalph NaderRepublican PartyRepublicanstradeU.S. politicsU.S. presidencyvotersvotingworking classFri, 16 Nov 2007 14:29:00 EST<![CDATA[Why two-thirds of Americans think we're in a recession]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/08/02/why-two-thirds-of-americans-think-were-in-a-recession/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/08/02/why-two-thirds-of-americans-think-were-in-a-recession/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/08/02/why-two-thirds-of-americans-think-were-in-a-recession/#commentsFiled under: , , , , , , , , ,

Reuters reports that two-thirds of Americans think the U.S. is in, or soon will be in, a recession. This despite the recent report from the Commerce Department that GDP grew 3.4% in the second quarter of 2007.

Are two-thirds of Americans just plain stupid? I don't think so. As John Edwards correctly pointed out during his 2004 run, there are two Americas. The first America -- occupied by hedge fund and private equity grandees, investment bankers, and oil executives -- is a wonderful world where it's easy to make hundreds of millions of dollars a year. For those first Americans, this is truly the best of times.

Then there are the second Americans, the other 99.9%. Unlike the First Americans, they have limited ability to influence economic and tax policy. They have been borrowing on their homes and using credit cards to make up for stagnant wage growth. Meanwhile, their housing, health care, education, and energy bills have been skyrocketing.

Continue reading Why two-thirds of Americans think we're in a recession

Why two-thirds of Americans think we're in a recession originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 02 Aug 2007 16:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>income inequalityIncomeInequalityJohn EdwardsJohnEdwardspollspresidential electionPresidentialElectionrecessionThu, 02 Aug 2007 16:15:00 EST<![CDATA[Earnings reports: Go head-to-head against the experts]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/01/20/earnings-reports-go-head-to-head-against-the-experts/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/01/20/earnings-reports-go-head-to-head-against-the-experts/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/01/20/earnings-reports-go-head-to-head-against-the-experts/#commentsFiled under: , , , , ,

We at Blogging Stocks are covering more earning reports of our favorite stocks than ever before. And you may have noticed the polls that have started popping up in our earnings previews -- yes, you now have the opportunity to show your stuff.

Before the earnings reports of each of the companies listed below, we'll give you a chance to make your prediction whether they will meet, beat, or fall short of expectations. Take a look at the news and the numbers at the links below, and make up your own mind. But the question is, can you and your fellow Blogging Stocks readers do better than the analysts and market experts? You'll never know unless you cast your votes.

Note: We'll update this post frequently, and point you back here from time to time.


Earnings reports: Go head-to-head against the experts originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 20 Jan 2007 11:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>AmazonAMDanalystsAppleBerkshire HathawayBoeingCiscoCitigroupCoca-ColaDellDisneyearningsearnings reportseBayexpectationsExxon MobilFedExFordGEGMGoogleHome DepotHPIBMIntelJohnsonMcDonald'sMerckMicrosoftMotorolaOraclePepsicoPfizerpollsSiriusSonyStarbucksSun MicrosystemsSunMicrosystemsTargetViacomWal-MartWhole FoodsXMYahooSat, 20 Jan 2007 11:30:00 EST<![CDATA[The October Surprise: Poll news may be more important than Fed news]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2006/10/24/the-october-surprise-poll-news-may-be-more-important-than-fed-n/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2006/10/24/the-october-surprise-poll-news-may-be-more-important-than-fed-n/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2006/10/24/the-october-surprise-poll-news-may-be-more-important-than-fed-n/#commentsFiled under: , , ,

Everyone is focused on the results of the Fed meeting which will be released Wednesday. My forecast, along with that of most others, is that the Fed will leave rates unchanged. I also believe that Fed language will emphasize a continuing focus on core inflation, leaving open the possibility of a rate increase but nothing more. This will be, in effect, a continuation of the status quo. No news, just more noise.

However, the real action may be where no one seems to be looking -- the polls for the upcoming Congressional election. Everyone in the mainstream media is forecasting a massive defeat for the Republicans, possibly in both houses of Congress similar to what happened to the Democrats in 1994.

Gridlock in history has been considered to be good for the equity markets because it restrains the extremes of both parties. In 1994, the Republican takeover of Congress forced Bill Clinton to the center and began the prosperity of the 1990's. However, this time things may be different.

A massive Democratic majority in the House along with a smaller one in the Senate could create the worst of both worlds. Democrats firmly in control would attempt huge social spending to reward their base and prepare for the 2008 elections. Republicans would respond with spending bills and tax cuts to satisfy their constituencies. Unlike earlier Republican Heads of State, President Bush's focus has been on winning elections instead of balancing the budget. Fiscal responsibility would become a secondary priority for both parties adding to inflationary pressures and possibly causing the Fed to adopt a more hawkish tone.

Much of this depends upon whether the Republican base stays home on Election Day. If it does, the above scenario becomes likely. However, this is by no means certain. Editorials by John Podhoretz and Dick Morris cite data from Pollster Mark Rasmussen that shows that the Republican base may be more scared of the Democratic leadership than disgusted by a Republican Congress. If this is true, Republican losses may be less than anticipated.

A Republican loss of the House while retaining control of the Senate would result in the gridlock scenario favorable for the equity markets. Even if one party gains control of both branches of Congress, it will be by very slim majorities. No one would be able to accomplish much with the extremes of both parties being restrained from fiscal spending to pacify their respective bases. This would allow the slowing economic scenario desired by the Fed to unfold, with no need to raise rates.

As Election Day approaches, it may be the voters who determine what the Fed will do.

Doug Roberts is the Founder and Chief Investment Strategist for FollowtheFed.com, an independent research firm focusing on investment strategies using the Federal Reserve's impact on the stock prices. He previously held executive positions at Morgan Stanley Group and Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.

The October Surprise: Poll news may be more important than Fed news originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 24 Oct 2006 15:58:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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