With a turn of the calendar page, we drift into the middle portion of the current quarter, but the earnings season rolls on. Among the many companies scheduled to report quarterly results this coming week are Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX), Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO), News Corp. (NYSE: NWS), and Whole Foods Market International (NASDAQ: WFMI). Let's take a look at which companies Wall Street analysts are expecting to be among the top earnings gainers and decliners this week.
Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial expect the following to report strong earnings growth when compared to the same period of the previous year.
Polo Ralph Lauren Corporation (NYSE: RL) is engaged in the design, marketing, and distribution of apparel, accessories, home furnishings and fragrances. These are offered under such brand names as Polo Ralph Lauren, Safari, Black Label, Club Monaco and Rugby. The company operates over 300 Ralph Lauren, Club Monaco, and Rugby retail stores, as well as a pair of e-commerce sites. Its products are also carried by upscale and mid-tier department stores. Macy's (NYSE: M) and Dillard's (NYSE: DDS) account for more than a third of all wholesale revenue. Jones Apparel Group (NYSE: JNY) and Liz Claiborne (NYSE: LIZ) are competitors.
The company pleased investors late last month, when it reported fiscal Q4 EPS of $1.00 and revenues of $1.24 billion. Analysts had been looking for 65 cents and $1.15 billion. Management also guided FY09 EPS to $3.95-$4.05 ($3.97 consensus). Needham subsequently reiterated its "buy" rating on the shares and boosted its price target to $79.
Father's Day is around the corner. Why not spend some time looking at the coming earnings and how Dad's Day may have an impact. It is funny to see how many of the companies reporting earnings this week actually have links to Father's Day.
While this column has been obviously bearish of late, there are a few potential winners that may appear, just in time for the big day. Time to stock up on gifts for dear-ole-dad, or get farther away from stocks? You tell me... (by the way, comments and ideas are always appreciated)
Monday, May 26
Markets will be flat. I am certain that stocks on the U.S. Market will close at the exact price they closed last Friday. But what do I know!
While the earnings season is beginning to wind down for the current quarter, there are still plenty of results to come. Here's a peek at what analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial are expecting from companies scheduled to report results in the final week of May 2008.
These companies are expected to post earnings growth, compared to the same period in the previous year:
Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) down 2.9% to 33 cents per share, on $15.66 billion in revenue
TiVo Inc. (NASDAQ: TIVO) is expected to swing to a loss of a penny per share, compared to a penny profit a year ago, and report $55.62 million in revenue. And analysts expect Borders Group Inc. (NYSE: BGP) to narrow its loss 7.8% to 47 cents per share, on $801.11 million in revenue.
Determined to bring a more formal, stylish fashion to the U.S. Olympic team garb for the Beijing games later this year, the Olympic committee has dumped Roots Ltd. in favor of Polo Ralph Lauren Corp. (NYSE: RL). According to The Wall Street Journal [subscription], Tom Brokaw, former NBC news anchor, was asked by USOC COO Norman Bellingham to approach Ralph Lauren about the possible affiliation.
The deal, which also includes the Paralympics, builds on the company's growing affiliation with sports events, including the U.S. Open and Winbledon, and should result in a terrific boost to sales at both its own boutiques and other retailers with whom it is negotiating distribution.
The designs will supposedly evoke the styles of the film Chariots of Fire. The duds will be kept under wraps until the opening ceremonies in August, although the many Chinese who will probably sew the garments will have a good idea of what to expect. I'll be interested to see if the Chinese government's clampdown on counterfeit goods successfully keeps fake U.S. uniforms off of the streets of Beijing before the games even began.
The line of consumer clothing to be spun off the Olympic garb should dovetail nicely into Lauren's line and burnish its image, although it will be interesting to see at what price point this line will fall. The equalitarian nature of the Olympic sport may not be reflected in the cost of dressing like our champions.
So I'm looking at Liz Claiborne (NYSE: LIZ) and its latest earnings report. I don't currently have a retailer in my portfolio, so I'm thinking to myself, hey, maybe I'll want to buy Liz after I check out its latest numbers. Well, that didn't happen.
Net sales (excluding discontinued operations) dropped 3% for the fourth quarter, and adjusted net income declined dramatically, coming in at $0.20 per diluted share -- last year at this time, the metric was over four times as big at $0.94. For the year, net sales dropped over 1% (excluding discontinued operations), and adjusted net income was $1.30 per diluted share -- yet another huge drop, considering that Liz Claiborne took in $2.99 per diluted share of adjusted net income in 2006. Oh, and there are other things here that will make any prospective investor shudder -- operational cash flow was down, the dividend was stagnant, and the margins weren't anything to write home about. And comps at some of the company's stores have been challenged (Juicy Couture, however, did report a strong 25% increase in comparable sales in the fourth quarter).
This was an easy one for me -- I'll stay away from Liz Claiborne. The company, which competes with the likes of Jones Apparel Group (NYSE: JNY) and Polo Ralph Lauren (NYSE: RL), currently exists in the land of strategic reviews, cost reductions, and discontinued operations. I don't want to travel to such a land with this particular business.
Disclosure: Steven Mallas owns none of the companies mentioned.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Cisco Systems, Virgin Mobile and Polo Ralph Lauren were today's noteworthy downgrades:
JP Morgan downgraded shares of Cisco Systems Inc (NASDAQ: CSCO) to Neutral from Overweight following its Q2 results, as they believe the company's international exposure is not enough to offset slowing in North America and Europe. Shares were also downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Baird, citing the meaningful slowdown in fundamentals.
Lehman downgraded Virgin Mobile USA Inc (NYSE: VM) to Equal Weight from Overweight based on reduced visibility following its Q4 report.
Polo Ralph Lauren Corporation (NYSE: RL) was lowered to Hold from Buy at Citigroup, as they believe the company is facing fundamental challenges in key markets and a lack of visibility on the Japanese market. They see more upsideelsewhere.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Bear Stearns downgraded BT Group Plc (NYSE: BT) to Peer Perform from Outperform.
Think Equity lowered Napster Inc (NASDAQ: NAPS) to Accumulate from Buy.
Polo Ralph Lauren Corp. (NYSE: RL) shares are rising today afterthe apparel maker posted a fourth-quarter profit of $112.7 million, or $1.08 per share, helped by higher wholesale sales and a lower tax rate. Analysts had been expecting a profit of 77 cents per share. Wholesale sales rose 17% to $627 million. RL also raised its 2008 guidance this morning, a move that investors generally love. If you think that the company won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on RL.
After hitting a one-year high of $102.58 in July, the stock hit a one-year low of $50.55 last month. RL opened this morning at $60.94. So far today the stock has hit a low of $60.11 and a high of $62.89. As of 10:45, RL is trading at $62.72, up $5.26 (9.2%). The chart for RL looks neutral and improving slightly, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
Today's Wall Street Journal has an article about the cost-cutting measures going on retailer, JC Penney (NYSE: JCP). The article, essentially an interview with CEO and Chairman, Myron "Mike" Ullman III, details Ullman's changing of gears, from aggressive store expansion and online growth to scaling back in the face of a looming recession.
The CEO is expected to announce today plans to merge the buying and marketing operations for store and online sales, cutting as many as 200 jobs.
In the article, Ullman says he may scale back store expansion over the next two years.
Getting more of the consumer's wallet
Ullman says, "Half of the families in the U.S. shopped with us at least once last year. But we only get 7% of their spending. So, our biggest opportunity in the downturn is to make every visit they make to our store, Internet or catalog more productive by offering more innovation."
Luxury eyewear manufacturer and distributor Luxottica Group (NYSE: LUX) certainly has turned its eye towards profits. Despite the continuing erosion of the U.S. dollar against the Euro, Luxottica's July 26 2Q earnings report looks good. The only blind spot is Luxottica's inability to capitalize on its retail sector, particularly in the U.S. market. That is not to say Luxottica is not trying. The company has recently acquired 870 additional retail locations globally, and is aggressively establishing a retail presence in China and South Africa. In order to strengthen its brands in the U.S., Luxottica is unveiling a new line of eyewear products under a licensing agreement with Polo Ralph Lauren. Within the next several quarters, Luxottica intends to launch an ultra-luxury (obscenely overpriced?) eyewear brand named ILORI as part of a full luxury line. Perhaps the problem in its retail sector stems from Luxottica's inability to define precisely what type of eyewear distributor it is. While going after the vanity eyewear market of the uber-wealthy, Luxottica also owns LensCrafters and Sunglass Hut, the epitome of value-driven suburban mall retail demographics.
Despite problems in its retail sector, and being repreatedly hammered by exchange rate fluctuations, Luxottica continues to post good numbers. The company posted its ninth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth in its wholesale sector. In the most recent quarter, wholesale sales were up 17.5%. This gain follows 1Q 2007 wholesale gains of 20.4%. For the first half of 2007, wholesale sector operating income has increased 24.5%, which certainly helps to offset a 12% decline in retail operating income for the same period. Wholesale sales in emerging markets have increased by 50% during the previous quarter with so sign of a slowdown. On the basis of recent wholesale figures, Luxottica CEO Andrea Guerra raised FY guidance for growth in consolidated EPS to the 26-29% range, excluding the impact of exchange rate fluctuations, always a major concern to potential and current shareholders. For the first half of 2007, consolidated EPS stands at $0.83.
Luxottica stock is up over 15% from the beginning of the year, closing on 9 August at $35.50. Investors with a tolerance for currency volatility may wish to look into Luxottica.
The Wall Street Journal (subscription required) reported that Wal-Mart Stores (NYSE: WMT) is helping to bring eBay Inc's (NASDAQ: EBAY) Skype "to the masses," by selling Skype Internet calling phone gear in the electronics section of its stores.
The Financial Times (subscription required) reported that the Bancroft family, which control a majority of the voting shares of Dow Jones and Company Inc (NYSE: DJ), is split over the idea of meeting with News Corporation (NYSE: NWS) Chairman Rupert Murdoch to discuss his $5B offer for Dow Jones.
According to the Sunday Telegraph, Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP) has hired Morgan Stanley to help defend itself in the event of an unsolicited takeover approach.
DigiTimes.com reported that the ATI Radeon HD that was just introduced by Advanced Micro Devices Inc (NYSE: AMD) has fallen short of expectations in terms of price, performance and energy efficiency.
Stock screeners are tools that let investors filter through a large number of stocks according to chosen criteria. While helping investors pick stocks and narrow down options, it is important to remember that a stock screener is just a tool and every investment should be analyzed on its own merits to make sure it fits with your personal portfolio and risk characteristics. This is my weekly column that finds interesting investment opportunities with the help of our Stock Screener.
Update: I've written the post before the recent rumors reported in the New York Post about Barneys New York possibly being bought by Dubai oil sheiks. While I did mention that I've noticed increased activity in JNY trading, the reason was unclear. I now expanded further on the matter at the end of the post.
Last Friday was Good Friday and like every good Canadian who lives along the U.S. border, we decided we couldn't handle one day without shopping (stores in Canada were closed). So we drove to Buffalo. Bargain huntin'. With the low U.S. dollar, bargains are even better. We went to the outlet mall and, as usual, I got stuck at Jones New York, hubby at Liz Claiborne.
Last week I came across an article in Forbes about the possibility of Gianni Versace S.p.A. going public. Versace had recently announced it swung a profit in 2006 and that it plans to further expand in Asia. A Versace IPO could be worth $1.2 billion. A Wall Street Journal article mentioned that a few other private fashion houses might also consider public offering [subscription] next year, including Prada SpA.
Naturally, with all this in my head, I wanted to see how the U.S. fashion stores are doing. In the Stock Screener, I chose the Women's Clothing industry and a minimum $1 billion market capitalization. Lo and behold, the stock screener returnedLiz Claiborne Inc. (NYSE: LIZ) and Jones Apparel Group Inc. (NYSE: JNY).
Socks and ties, cologne, a ticket to a ball game: all well and good, but for the stock-loving guy in your life, why not surprise him this year? Instead of giving him a gift that will wear out, run out or disappoint (for God's sake, don't give him Knicks tickets!), present him with something that will fit into his portfolio and remind him of you every time he counts his loot. Some suggestions:
Instead of cologne, a cologne maker. Polo Ralph Lauren Corp. (NYSE:RL) offers Polo, Polo Black and Polo Blue colognes for men at $30-40 a pop. For $83.52, you can buy him a share, so he makes money on every bottle sold. And this week Polo announced third quarter results eleven cents over forecast estimates.
Stocks instead of socks (or ties). J.C. Penney Company, Inc. (NYSE:JCP), the stalwart of middle American men's wardrobes, has shown impressive growth over the last three years. This week, it announced a same-store sales rise for January of 3.6%, which will warm any Wall Street fan's heart more than a pair of socks.
Think dollars instead of ducats. If you buy your honey tickets to a ball game, you run the risk of a half-time stomp out and a grumpy guy if his team tanks for the night. Suppose, instead, you bought him a share of The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS). He would the be part owner of ESPN. That way, even on those nights when his team is struggling, he can enjoy the commercials knowing they're building his portfolio's value.
And that special thing you do that drives him wild? You know what I mean. Don't even think of trying to replace that with a stock.
Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks: 
With a turn of the calendar page, we drift into the middle portion of the current quarter, but the earnings season rolls on. Among the many companies scheduled to report quarterly results this coming week are 
Determined to bring a more formal, stylish fashion to the U.S. Olympic team garb for the Beijing games later this year, the Olympic committee has dumped Roots Ltd. in favor of 
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Socks and ties, cologne, a ticket to a ball game: all well and good, but for the stock-loving guy in your life, why not surprise him this year? Instead of giving him a gift that will wear out, run out or disappoint (for God's sake, don't give him Knicks tickets!), present him with something that will fit into his portfolio and remind him of you every time he counts his loot. Some suggestions:
Stocks have their worst week in six years
Why haven't the Republicans said much about the economy?
Chasing Value: Are you watching WaMu?
