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Ralph Lauren (RL) surviving economic slowdown

RL logoPolo Ralph Lauren (NYSE: RL - option chain) shares are trading higher today after the company posted first-quarter earnings of $95.2 million, or 93 cents per share, blowing analysts' estimates of 72 cents per share out of the water. RL also lifted its full-year earnings forecast to a range of $4.00 to $4.10 per share, from previous guidance of $3.95 to $4.05 per share, above analysts' expectations $3.98 per share. It is looking like the slowing economic situation is not hitting RL that hard, which could also be a good sign for other high-end retailers as well. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on RL.

RL opened this morning at $66.00. So far today the stock has hit a low of $63.90 and a high of $66.66. As of 12:45, RL is trading at $65.78, up $4.28 (6.9%). The chart for RL looks neutral and S&P gives RL a 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a September bull-put credit spread below the $55 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 7.5% return in just seven weeks months as long as RL is above $55 at September expiration. Ralph Lauren would have to fall by more than 16% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

Continue reading Ralph Lauren (RL) surviving economic slowdown

Analyst downgrades 8-29-07: ACI, PZZA, RL and WYNN

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Papa John's (PZZA), Wynn Resorts (WYNN), SourceForge (LNUX), Cathay Pacific (CPCAY) and Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG) were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • Matrix downgraded shares of Papa John's (NASDAQ: PZZA) to Hold from Strong Buy to reflect minimal improvement to fundamentals and negative free cash flow trends.
  • Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ: WYNN) was downgraded to Peer Perform from Outperform based on valuation as the firm believes shares fully reflect solid Las Vegas & Macau fundamentals and the company's development pipeline.
  • SourceForge (NASDAQ: LNUX) was cut to Underperform from Market perform at JMP Securities, with a $3 target, following the disappointing results.
  • Arthur J. Gallagher (NYSE: AJG) was cut to Underperform from Peer Perform at Bear Stearns as they believe margin expansion will be lower than expected, softening insurance pricing will impact organic growth, and cites managements acquisition desires over aggressive repurchases...
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
  • Morgan Stanley cut Arch Coal (NYSE: ACI) to Underwieght from Overweight.
  • JP Morgan downgraded Sonic (NASDAQ: SONC) to Neutral from Overweight.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Analyst initiations 7-26-07: Alcoa, Alcan, Polo Ralph Lauren

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Polo Ralph Lauren (RL), Alcan (AL), Alcoa (AA) and Conn's, Inc (CONN) were today's noteworthy initiations:
  • Polo Ralph Lauren (NYSE: RL) was initiated with a Market Perform rating at Piper Jaffray. The firm feels the risk/reward is balanced at current levels given the near-term risks from increased investment and exposure to inconsistent U.S. wholesale markets.
  • Goldman Sachs resumed coverage of Alcan (NYSE: AL) and Alcoa (NYSE: AA) with Neutral ratings and a $101 target and $48 target, respectively.
  • Morgan Joseph is positive on Conn's Inc's (NASDAQ: CONN) strong track record of growth, new store growth and easy comps, and initiated shares with a Buy rating and $34 target.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
  • Stifel initiated shares of Pharmerica (NASDAQ: PMC) with a Hold rating on valuation.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Wal-Mart turns 'preppy'? Shedding the vest a shifty move

According to ABC News, Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT) is making a major change: Signature blue vests out, polos and khakis in.

Now, why is Wal-Mart making this change you ask?

"The vest is being retired and replaced with the dress-code look that actually has our customers saying that they can see our associates more prominently in the stores," said Celia Swanson, of Wal-Mart.

In other words, Ms. Swanson believes that most Wal-Mart customers don't dress in polos and khakis, so the preppy look is much more noticeable than wearing, say, bright blue vests that have the words "Wal-Mart" stitched on them.

While the new dress code might make employees feel more "professional," as one worker put it, the new dress code truthfully says more about Wal-Mart's corporate mental state. The blue vests are what millions of Americans have come to identify with the low-cost retailer, and that is exactly what Wal-Mart is trying to get rid of -- the negative image of being a low-cost retailer -- by forcing employees to dress "preppy."

Will Wal-Mart require their employees to only wear in-store brands? Maybe employees will have stickers that say Find this outfit in aisle 4. Regardless of what employees wear, many analysts believe eliminating something so closely identified with the retail giant is a bad idea.

Market highlights for next week: Markets closed Monday

Here is a quick look at this upcoming holiday shortened week.

Monday May 28
  • Markets closed for Memorial Day holiday.
  • PDUFA date for MedImmune Inc's (NASDAQ: MEDI) sBLA for CAIV-T.
Tuesday May 29
Wednesday May 30
Thursday May 31
Friday June 1

Analyst initiations 2-21-07: Coach & Avaya initiated today

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Acorda Therapeutics Inc (ACOR) and Coach, Inc (COH) were some of today's most notable initiations:
  • Morgan Joseph started Acorda Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ: ACOR) with a Sell rating and $15 target citing seizure rates for Fampridine-SR and limited efficacy for its rating.
  • Coach, Inc (NYSE: COH) was started at Soleil with a Buy rating and $58 target; the firm believes continuing market share gains should create a long-term EPS growth rate of 23%.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
  • Morgan Stanley initiated Time Warner Cable (OTC: TWCA) with an Equal Weight rating.
  • Raymond James started Legacy Reserves LP (NASDAQ: LGCY) with an Outperform rating and $27 target.
  • Wedbush initiated Avaya Inc (NYSE: AV) with a Hold rating and $14 target.
  • Nollenberger initiated Rudolph Technologies Inc (NASDAQ: RTEC) with a Buy rating and $26 target, citing valuation.
  • Precision Drilling Trust (NYSE: PDS) was initiated at CIBC with a Sector Performer rating.
  • Lehman Brothers started Polo Ralph Lauren Corp (NYSE: RL) with an Overweight rating and $100 target.
  • Bank of America reinstated The Nasdaq Stock Market Inc (NASDAQ: NDAQ) with a Neutral rating and $33 target.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+20.0310,246.97
NASDAQ-2.982,151.08
S&P 500-0.071,093.01

Last updated: November 10, 2009: 11:16 PM

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