Discount retailer Big Lots Inc. (NYSE: BIG) saw its shares surge higher in Wednesday trading after it posted a fourth-quarter profit from continuing operations that came in ahead of analysts expectations and offered a better-than-expected outlook.

Clearly, investors view BIG as a recession stock to own.

Earnings from continuing operations totaled a dollar per share, ahead of the 93 cents per share analysts were expecting, and 3 cents higher than the year-ago quarter. Revenue fell to $1.37 billion from $1.41 billion last year, but beat expectations of $1.36 billion. Same-store sales fell a mild 3.2%, as sales of discretionary items, such as furniture and toys, were challenging.

Continue reading Recession stock: Big Lots

Recession stock: Big Lots originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 05 Mar 2009 15:50:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

I've been doing a fair amount of chest puffing lately, as many of my moves suggested here and elsewhere have paid huge dividends for investors. Today, I want to highlight one of my mistakes: General Electric Company (NYSE: GE).

Someone is going to own one heck of an asset when this all shakes out. Unfortunately for GE shareholders, there is a very real risk that you will be on the outside looking in when all is said and done.

Each day the odds are growing that bondholders or the government will end up owning the equity in GE. Given the long-term future of the company, those two parties will be quite pleased.

Continue reading GE's 10-cent dividend a big mistake

GE's 10-cent dividend a big mistake originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 03 Mar 2009 08:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

There was a time when Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) was the cream of the crop in the PC business. Its college dorm beginnings and customization model allowed the company to separate itself from a host of other competitors.

It is hard to say what exact magic it was that allowed the DELL story to unfold, but suffice it to say the company was the best in the business at selling computers to individuals and small businesses. But I'm not so sure that is the case any longer. The heady days of the dot-com boom were when this company reached its prime. It has been a slow death ever since.

Continue reading Dell no longer best of breed

Dell no longer best of breed originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 27 Feb 2009 17:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Seriously, can retail customers afford premium coffee when budgets are severely strained and debts are high?

No way. Premium coffee is a luxury item, and though many are addicted to java, cutting back is relatively easy to do. In that dynamic, sales are likely to slow.

Continue reading Single-serving coffee not the answer for Starbucks

Single-serving coffee not the answer for Starbucks originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 25 Feb 2009 15:01:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Shares of Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) were last seen headed south after the world's largest technology company reported fiscal first-quarter results and cut its full-year 2009 guidance.

HP said it earned 93 cents per share, excluding one-time costs, on revenue of $28.8 billion for the quarter.

While the bottom-line number matched analyst estimates, the top-line figure fell well short of expectations by more than $3 billion.

Part of the revenue shortfall was a result of currency fluctuations, but the pullback in technology spending was broad-based, as all but one of the company's major business lines posted a decrease in revenue.

Continue reading HP disappoints on future uncertainty

HP disappoints on future uncertainty originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 20 Feb 2009 10:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Investors were sufficiently impressed with Chipotle Mexican Grill's (NYSE: CMG) fourth-quarter earnings.

The operator of more than 830 quick service Mexican restaurants said it earned $17 million, or 52 cents per share, in the quarter. That is compared to earnings of $17.5 million, or 53 cents per share, in the year-ago period.

Continue reading Chipotle earnings sizzle, but stock may fizzle

Chipotle earnings sizzle, but stock may fizzle originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 14 Feb 2009 11:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Former high-flyer Starbucks Corp. (NASDAQ: SBUX) put a coffee shop on every street corner during the time of easy credit. The pure saturation strategy had no basis in demand.

Instead, the company rode the wave of Wall Street, believing in its own omnipotence. Books were written about the supposed greatness of company founder Howard Schultz.

It was enough to make anyone sick. Of course, no one cared when it was all working.

Now that it's apparent the strategy was completely off base, the question is, will the company survive? The answer is not obvious.

Continue reading Starbucks is a real dog

Starbucks is a real dog originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 30 Jan 2009 14:42:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

A consequence of a weakening airline sector is the pain it will cause plane-maker Boeing (NYSE: BA). With capacity tightening, the need for aircrafts is diminishing.

Imagine planes just sitting idle in the desert. That vision is becoming a reality.

Fortunately for investors, that vision will take time to play out. In the meantime, Boeing gets a free pass as they work through years of order backlog that built up during the last business cycle.

If you take a look at Boeing during the last few months, it is clear that investors have yet to catch on to a world of lower revenues going forward.

Continue reading Boeing: Another airline loser

Boeing: Another airline loser originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 29 Jan 2009 13:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

It is very easy to make money in this market despite the headlines. Using options to capitalize on volatility combined with a long/short strategy can result in powerful returns.

For example, taking equal positions of my Top 10 Stocks for 2009 while at the same time selling equal amounts of my Top 10 Stocks to Avoid would generate a return of more than 10% year to date.

Given that trends once in place stay in place for some time, I am quite confident that these positions will be winners throughout the year. It is not too late to set up your trades using these suggestions as a guide.

Continue reading American Express is to be avoided at all costs

American Express is to be avoided at all costs originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 28 Jan 2009 10:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

As the reigning king of the fast food industry, McDonald's Corp. (NYSE: MCD) has consistently demonstrated its adroitness in addressing changing economic conditions and consumer preferences.

The company's fourth-quarter earnings report provided a stark testimonial to the effectiveness of McDonald's strategy and management. Reporting earnings of 87 cents per share for the quarter, MCD exceeded the 2007 fourth-quarter results after adjusting for a 2007 tax bonus to earnings of 33 cents per share.

The company reported a 3% drop in revenues for the quarter. Excluding currency exchange rates, the global company reported an increase in revenues of 5% for the period.

Continue reading No McRecession in sight

No McRecession in sight originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 27 Jan 2009 08:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

One of the biggest complaints of the public equity markets is the incredibly short-term focus of participants. Management teams for publicly traded entities face severe consequences from a market short on patience.

Decisions tend to be focused on delivering short-term results. The "beat the number" game has become standard operating procedure. Such is the cost of accessing capital while providing shareholders liquidity.

But is worth it? I'm not so sure.

Investors want the company to make as much money as possible in the short term. As a result, if a company is not profitable in a given quarter, there is extreme pressure to cut costs and to do so immediately -- no matter the longer-term expense of such action.

In many cases cutting costs are exactly the right tonic to rejuvenate profits, but in some instances, those short-term cuts can do more damage than good.

This past week, Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) dropped a big bomb on the market by releasing its quarterly earnings earlier than expected. Lost in the headline of the lower revenue and earnings number was the announcement that the company would be cutting 5,000 jobs from its rolls.

For the first time in its history, MSFT is laying off employees. My question is, why bother?

Continue reading What the heck was Microsoft thinking?

What the heck was Microsoft thinking? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 23 Jan 2009 18:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Dendreon (NASDAQ: DNDN) is a classic example of how a company fares as they struggle through the arcane and sometimes bewildering process of gaining FDA approval of a new treatment protocol.

A little more than a year and a half ago, the Seattle-based company was anxiously awaiting FDA approval of its new drug treatment protocol for prostate cancer.

The company's new drug, Provenge, had completed a trial that found that the treatment extended the lives of men suffering from prostate cancer an average of 4.5 months over those who did not receive the treatment. The company felt it had adequately demonstrated the efficacy of the treatment and deserved FDA approval.

In an unexpected but somewhat typical move, the FDA chose not to approve the drug for distribution at that time. It opted to delay approval until completion of another study under way with 500 subjects. This came in spite of a finding by an FDA panel that the drug was "safe and substantially effective."

Continue reading Dendreon delays request for FDA approval of prostate cancer drug

Dendreon delays request for FDA approval of prostate cancer drug originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 16 Jan 2009 15:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Piper Jaffray Companies (NYSE: PJC), a Minneapolis-based investment banking firm, serves the capital needs of a wide array of corporate and governmental entities.

With operations in corporate finance, municipal finance, institutional equity, bond sales, trading and private placements, Piper serves clients throughout the United States and Europe. Recently, the company made a major investment in China, viewing that country as having high levels of capital needs, as well as a growing institutional investor base.

Piper Jaffray has its roots in the commercial paper business, tracing its history back to the 1880s. For much of its 20th century existence, Piper operated as a regional retail distribution securities company.

Following a stressful period as a wholly owned subsidiary of U.S. Bancorp (NYSE: USB), the remaining principals of the former Piper Jaffray unwound the merger and emerged as an independent securities firm without a retail distribution arm.

Continue reading One investment firm that actually may be a buy

One investment firm that actually may be a buy originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 14 Jan 2009 14:23:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Genentech is among the leading biotech companies in the world. It is engaged in the discovery, development, manufacturing and commercialization of pharmaceutical products intended for treatment of previously untreatable illnesses.

In 1990, Roche acquired a 56% stake in the company. Since that time, the relationship between the two companies has been a model for similarly structured combinations.

Roche's offer of $89 per share for DNA was characterized by DNA as significantly undervaluing the company.

But this was hardly a "hit the road, Jack" response. DNA's board of directors has been encouraging the two sides to continue discussions, and recent comments suggest that the deal could come together soon.

Continue reading Don't sell your Genentech (DNA) stock just yet

Don't sell your Genentech (DNA) stock just yet originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 14 Jan 2009 11:05:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Allscripts-Misys Healthcare Solutions (NASDAQ: MDRX) is the result of the recently completed merger of Florida-based Allscripts and the health care information technology business of London-based Misys.

The nearly ill-fated merger finally closed late in 2008, after having to be restructured following the untimely demise of Lehman Brothers, the architect of the original merger plans.

The merger with Misys places the company in the forefront of the Obama administration's emphasis on improving health care in part by improving the availability of medical information in electronic form.

Allscripts' solutions are the cutting edge of medical information systems, and the company should benefit substantially from a move in the direction suggested by Obama.

MDRX provides clinical software, connectivity and information solutions to its health care customer base throughout the United States. The company delivers its products through four divisions: Professional Solutions, Enterprise Solutions, Health Systems Group and Medication Services.

Continue reading Obama administration writes prescription for Allscripts' growth

Obama administration writes prescription for Allscripts' growth originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 13 Jan 2009 18:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The annual Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas was last week. In past years, just the anticipation of the world's largest electronics trade show was enough move technology stocks higher.

That was not the case this year, though, as investors grapple with a weak economy, frozen credit, plunging home values and rising unemployment. Just paying the bills and keeping one's head above water seems to be the order of the day. The market sold off hard last week, and not even the CES could pull it out of its funk. Still, there were some bright spots.

Palm, Inc. (NASDAQ: PALM) gave its investors a taste of the old days as its shares soared 34% after its new touch-screen phone and mobile operating system garnered admiration from analysts and attendees at the CES.

Continue reading Can the Pre take on the BlackBerry and iPhone?

Can the Pre take on the BlackBerry and iPhone? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 12 Jan 2009 15:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

I don't like to toot my horn much, as there are plenty of loud mouths in this industry ready to tell you how great they are. I prefer to let my work do the talking, and lately that work has been screaming.

I'll make an exception to the rule today. Here goes: Following my suggestions can significantly improve your performance in the market.

Case in point is my list of Top 10 Stocks for 2009. With a week of trading under our belt, the S&P 500 is down approximately 1%. The aggregate return of an equally weighted portfolio consisting of the 10 stocks on the list is nearly 9%.

Included on the list are big gainers Chicago Bridge & Iron (NYSE: CBI), up 25% year to date, and Transocean (NYSE: RIG), up 15% year to date.

Now, a week does not make a year, but keep in mind that as goes January, so goes the rest of the year. I expect these stocks to continue outperforming by a wide margin for the remainder of the year.

Continue reading Online Educator Apollo gonna keep on shining

Online Educator Apollo gonna keep on shining originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 11 Jan 2009 14:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

It comes as no surprise that the top performer among the stocks comprising the S&P 500 Index is a retailer focused on delivering quality products and services at a discount price.

Family Dollar Stores (NYSE: FDO) increased nearly 30% in 2008, compared with a decrease of 40% in the S&P 500.

Defying the expectations of gloomy analysts who are paralyzed by their inability to value companies during the last 12 months, and by short sellers who perceived a price drop following the high level performance in 2008, the stock is continuing its climb as we enter the 2009 trading year.

Family Dollar reported first quarter earnings Wednesday, which exceeded analysts' expectations and company projections.

Earnings for the period were up by 14%, with revenue increasing by 4.2% and same-store sales up a healthy 2.1%. Market reaction to the report is stunning, with FDO up more than 14% at the close.

Family Dollar CEO Howard Levine, son of founder and Chairman Emeritus Leon Levine, issued a forecast of continued growth for the next quarter and for all of 2009.

The company is now projecting earnings of $1.63 to $1.81 per share for fiscal year 2009. Earlier forecasts were in the range of $1.58 to $1.78. Projections of same-store sales growth for the year were also increased from a range of 1%-3% to 2%-4%.

FDO combines conservative leadership with a consumer-friendly neighborhood store environment, and a product mix appealing to cost-conscious consumers to deliver value and a positive shopping experience. With minimal exposure to price-volatile electronic and apparel inventory, company performance is not likely to be adversely affected by a prolonged economic downturn.

FDO has more than 6,000 locations in 44 contiguous states. The company has effectively managed its rapid growth during the last five years, having opened more than half of its stores during this period.

Continue reading Family Dollar comes out on top

Family Dollar comes out on top originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 08 Jan 2009 11:56:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.