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Apple (AAPL): The psychology of trading the stock

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) closed at $122.06 on Friday. The stock has come down from its 52-week high of $148.92, or a full $26. The interesting thing I find about Apple comes from talking to eleven different professional portfolio managers who I worked with these past 16 years.

To the person, all eleven portfolio managers had nothing but glowing things to say about Apple. The stock has been a home run this past year as it has basically doubled from the mid $60s to the current $122. The eleven managers expect the fiscal 4th quarter ending September 30 to be excellent and forward guidance to be solid and comforting. But, these managers have recently been net sellers of the name. Collectively they have sold between one third to one half of their positions. Why?

When the markets come down in a powerful fashion as it has these past couple of weeks, the first thing a portfolio manager does is "protect profits." I heard this in seven of the eleven conversations. I have a double in this stock, they say, capture the gain now, and re-evaluate it later. Yes, iPhone, iPod, and the new Mac are doing great. Yes, the retail store system is the envy of ... well, retailers. The story is superb and the numbers are locked and loaded. Yet, these guys have been sellers.

Continue reading Apple (AAPL): The psychology of trading the stock

Will France rejoin the "regular" world?

For 16 years I worked directly with French and British portfolio managers advising them on their U.S. stock portfolios. I visited Paris and London on more than 225 separate trips during that period. My mother was born and raised in France, her father, a captain in the French army was killed in World War II. My own father was educated at a French medical school and I had the privilege of spending several summers as a youth in Southern France. Through all this, I learned to adore the country and in another, sense feel sorry for it.

The French way of life is truly embodied in the joie de vivre. The work ethic in France has always been "do your job, but no more," and forget overtime work -- its not the money, its the infringement on free time. A person starts a new job and is instantly granted 5-6 weeks of vacation. The French medical and pension system is among the most generous in the world. My own mother worked exactly for three months in a temporary agency in 1954, left for the United States with my dad, a newly minted physician. She became an American citizen, and yet when she turned 65, she was informed that she qualified for a French pension. She was flabbergasted to learn that the French government was depositing $175 per month in her American checking account . She did not earn a cumulative total of $175 in her three-month temp career! When she inquired she was told that "you are entitled! You were born here!" She felt so guilty that her monthly deposit was immediately given to charity.

The months of July and August are renown for the French vacance -- vacation. I dealt with portfolio managers that took five weeks off in a row, which is great work if you can get it, but no one backed up or watched their portfolios. I remember asking several of them what if there was an emergency on one of the stocks they held? The common response was, it will have to wait.

Continue reading Will France rejoin the "regular" world?

The old "I told you so" on DaimlerChrysler

Earlier this month I was in London visiting with several professional portfolio managers that I worked with these past 16 years. All in all, I visited with 11 professional managers who, combined, manage over $80 billion in the U.S. stock market. It's always an interesting perspective to hear the views and observations of foreigners who make their living in our markets. They do indeed bring a refreshing, nonbiased point of view.

One portfolio manager in particular was vehement that Daimler (NYSE:DCX) will not rise in value until they unload "that turkey," the Chrysler division. He explained that Daimler on its own merits is a growth company and the Mercedes-Benz brand is the jewel. His parting words to me were "as this spin-off or sell-off gets closer, DCX will lift like a balloon on Ascot Day." (Remember, he's British!)

He reasoned that profits generated by the Mercedes cars, trucks, and buses are being drained by the poorly run, bloated Chrysler division. Chrysler was the drag because of union issues, long-term health care commitments, and lousy facilities. Daimler, left alone, is a well-run and efficient auto/truck manufacturer with excellence in its engineering and production facilities. He may well be right.

Yesterday, Daimler was up $4.76 per share, and since early March when all this talk of spinning/selling off Chrysler began, the stock has moved up from $67 to $83, a huge move in a difficult market environment.

I spoke with him again this morning and, as expected, he is taking the victory lap. The "I told you so" was mentioned three or four times in our discussion between sips of tea. He exclaimed that Daimler shareholders will now demand that Chrysler be unloaded, as shareholders are now beginning to understand the power of Daimler's stock without Chrysler dragging it down. He said his price target is $100 to $110 for Daimler. He went to say, "I understand how you blokes get emotional about an American institution like Chrysler, but it is profit-proof in its current position."

He again is probably right, and he did tell me so ...

Georges Yared is the author of Stop Losing Money Today and Baby Boomer Investing. Please visit www.georgesyared.com

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Last updated: May 28, 2012: 09:50 PM

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