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Obama Picks: Building an "Obama Stock" portfolio

Here's is my quick form strategy for investing during an Obama presidency:

Health care stocks should perform well under an Obama administration. It has been made clear that within the next four years our healthcare system shall be taking on a radical new form. There is certain to be a massive infusion of new money into the sector. I would hasten to clarify that pharmaceutical stocks might not be the angle that you want to play here. I would lean more towards hospitals and long-term care providers. Check out this analysis from Kiplinger, to get yourself started.

Next, I'd be looking at infrastructure plays. I'd focus on materials, procurement, and construction, as they relate to roads, tunnels and bridges. This play will be more dangerous in the near term, as these types of expenditures will be more dependent on governmental budgetary processes, rather than executive edict. Jim Cramer recently offered some input about infrastructure. You might want to check out his suggestions. Then, you can find information about building an infrastructure position at TheStreet.com. Additionally, here's a great list of infrastructure companies which has been provided by Seeking Alpha.

To me, perhaps the most important investment angle to play through the next administration will be alternative energy stocks. I expect that there will be a great deal of money moving in there. Ethanol is said to be a sure thing. I myself am not so positive about that. Oh, we can be sure that there will be plenty of ethanol to go around. However, I don't see much financial return in it at the investor's level. I lean towards solar plays, and to a lesser degree, I like wind power. You can get a good feel for alternative energy direction by reviewing The Pickens Plan. There is no shortage of companies to invest in if you're looking for alternative energy plays. You can easily start your stock picking hunt by checking out the companies which are included in the Wilderhill Clean Energy Index.

As always, stock portfolio success begins with good research. Hopefully, I've given you some quality leads to get started with. When all is said and done, history clearly shows that the markets flourish under administrations controlled by the democrats. Let's hope to God that this time around won't be the exception.

A Bear Stearns graphic novel

Graphic novels are generally targeted toward a market the could best be described as anime freaks: junior high and high school kids who shop at Hot Topic, listen to bad music, and read graphic novels.

For reasons that aren't immediately clear, Portfolio decided to make the collapse of Bear Stearns Co. Inc. (NYSE: BSC) into a graphic novel, focusing on the days leading up to the fire-sale to the Fed-back JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM). It's a neat idea but, by focusing exclusively on the company's last days, the comic portrays Bear's collapse as a run on the bank caused by malicious and unfounded rumors. The reality is that Bear made huge, risky bets on bad securities, and collapsed because of mismanagement. A "run on the bank" may have had something to do with it, but that's always the case: companies don't go under until people stop giving them money.

But in a financial press with a lot of very similar content, we should at least give Portfolio props for doing something a little different.

Americans' net worth falls $1.7 trillion in Q1

Americans net worth declined by $1.7 trillion in Q1 2008 - - the biggest drop in wealth since 2002 - - as declining home prices and a sluggish stock market took a toll on portfolios and asset holdings, CNNMoney.com reported Friday.

U.S. household net worth fell 3% to $56 trillion at the end of March, according to the U.S. Federal Reserve's flow of funds report, CNNMoney.com reported, with the amount of home equity declining to 46.2% - - the lowest on record.

Economist Peter Dawson told BloggingStocks Friday the net worth and home equity statistics aren't surprising, given the U.S. economy's current fundamentals. Further, he said the economy is now approaching "the danger level" regarding several key economic metrics.

Trends moving in wrong direction

"The two biggest concerns for the economy right now are a lack of job growth across the spectrum and stagnant wages for segments of the American workforce. A lack of job growth and wage increases will put the U.S. economy in a very serious state, and not just with home values, if the current trends do not reverse," Dawson said.
Moreover, Dawson said he's less concerned about home equity and overall home values, because "a home is a derivative asset, really a function of job growth, wage gains, and rising real incomes."

"The key remains job growth, and the ability of all employees to secure the wage gains that are essential to a growing economy. Some have argued that the U.S. economy could compensate for a lack of consumption at home by simply selling more goods to consumers abroad, but this is a deeply flawed model," Dawson said. "Absent consumption at home, the U.S. economy will fall into a prolonged recession, and the key to consumption is job growth and wage increases. Without job growth and wage increases the United States will simply run out of consumers. You'll be a condition where there are plenty of goods in the stores but there will not be nearly enough consumers to buy them. That's a place the nation doesn't want to be in."

Continue reading Americans' net worth falls $1.7 trillion in Q1

The Dow corrects: Now what?

Now that the Dow has fallen 10% from its October 2007 peak of 14,164 to 12,743 -- i.e. now that it officially qualifies as a correction, it's a good time to summarize the investment landscape, fundamental and technically.

Although numerous fundamentals (high energy prices, subprime mortgage defaults and subprime-asset losses, housing sector slump, slowing U.S. consumer spending) suggest U.S. economic growth will slow up ahead, and hence that more selling is ahead for the Dow, that, in fact, may not be the case.

If limited to roughly 10%, the Dow's decline constitutes solely a correction. Keep in mind also that the Dow is a lead indicator that always points to economic conditions 6-9 months ahead. Hence, investors, if they believe that measures being taken are addressing important concerns, could conclude that economic conditions will improve and hence send the Dow rising very soon.

Continue reading The Dow corrects: Now what?

How financial planners can help investors deal with market volatility

Peter Cohan

Though August's market volatility is now a distant memory for some investors, it could be a spur to seek out assistance from financial planners. How can financial planners advise clients to deal with volatility, both from a psychological and portfolio standpoint? What does volatility actually indicate about underlying economic fundamentals (apart from fear and uncertainty)?

In my view, financial planners need to be honest about what they know and what they don't know. And they should advise their clients to prepare themselves for volatility through a combination of balancing their life – the psychological part -- and portfolio contingency planning – the portfolio perspective.

From a psychological perspective, I don't know if financial planners have a role – beyond recommending psychologists who specialize in helping people deal with psychological pressures related to money. But one thing financial planners can do is to be honest about the limitations of their knowledge:


Continue reading How financial planners can help investors deal with market volatility

Burning Man for bigwigs: Shhh! Don't tell the board

While attendance at the counter-culture Burning Man festival might add credibility to any edgy artist's bio, it's definitely not the sort of thing you'd put on your investment banker's resume under "Interests." Yet according to Portfolio, financiers and executives are turning Burning Man into the latest substitute for golf retreats and spa getaways. When one executive returns from a week or two on the playa, he says, "I'm a far better executive, in terms of innovation and creativity."

Ahhh... now I understand the ad campaign for Rozerem. But let's put the sarcasm to the side for a moment and examine this, just like Portfolio does. After all, corporate retreats have long been held in locales where their participants are encouraged to turn off the mobile phones and Blackberries and the like and to connect with each other and their inner leader. What better place than Burning Man, where not only is wireless reception virtually nonexistent, but you can't even buy a candy bar (or a Wall Street Journal, or a stick of deodorant, or, well, anything). Commerce is banned altogether; you aren't allowed to even barter. Why not hold your retreat at such a disconnected locale?

Oh! Oh! I know this one. It's because Burning Man is seen as a haven for drugs and consequence-free sex (naturally, its proponents and organizers insist it's just about the art).

Continue reading Burning Man for bigwigs: Shhh! Don't tell the board

Vote today for your stock portfolio

In case you missed it, today is election day. I know there are some of you out there who will vote because you don't like the idea that our government went to war in Iraq on false pretenses, ran up $9 trillion in debt, let a pedophile congressman prey on pages, or took bribes from a corrupt lobbyist.

But this is a blog about stocks. And if you care about that portfolio of yours you'll vote Democratic. Granted it's a bit early to think about the 2008 presidential election but this study published in Forbes two years ago clearly shows that Democrats are better for your portfolio.

Don't believe me? Forbes, not a bastion of liberal thought, conducted a study of the post-World War II presidencies. It found "that the S&P 500 has averaged a total return of 14.1% per year under Democratic presidents since April 1945, and 11.8% under Republicans. The best total returns--17.4% per year--were under Bill Clinton, whose presidency ranked first in economic results. Gerald R. Ford ranks second, followed by Harry S. Truman."

So get out there and vote for your own net worth and/or your personal values. But by all means vote!

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates, a management consulting and venture capital firm, and a Professor of Management at Babson College.

New stock strategies for a market in record territory

If you're an investor that's been safely sitting on the sidelines, patting yourself on the back for holding energy and food stocks all year, you're probably not feeling quite so comfortable these days.

In just the past two months -- at the same time economic numbers from housing, to durable goods, to gross domestic product have been slipping -- the Dow Jones industrial average has been on a tear. It is up about 9% this year and at levels last seen in January, 2006 (what a different world it was then).

Now, as the Wall Street Journal reports in its lead story today, professional money managers are starting to guess this could be the start of a major turn in the market. Or, even if it isn't, they are starting to realize they can't afford to hang back any longer. It's time for a more aggressive stock strategy.

That doesn't mean you should dump all your cash and bonds. It's still important to be diversified across asset classes in case stocks turn south (and who really an predict the direction of the market anyway). But if the bullish trends in the market continue, you'll want to be in a different set of sectors than may have worked for you in the past.

Here are a few trends to consider:

Energy stocks have been falling fast. That doesn't mean the trend won't reverse itself in the weeks to come (wait till the first cold snap), but for now, they are still a risky place to be.

Retail stocks are rebounding after getting hammered on declining consumer spending and weak back-to-school sales in August. Always wanted to own Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE:WMT)? This could be a good time to get back in. Eddie Lampert's Sears Holdings (NASDAQ: SHLD) is also worth a look.

Continue reading New stock strategies for a market in record territory

The hobby portfolio

My father-in-law introduced me to the idea of having a "hobby" portfolio many years ago to satisfy certain needs that are not met by his predominant focus on index investing in low cost equity mutual funds. He and I have often engaged in discussions about the stock market and equity investing over the years. He understands that a diversified index fund can be beaten by stock picking but as a rule that is not the case, especially over a long period of time, and it is certainly not the case for non professionals.

He uses his hobby portfolio to invest small amounts of capital in companies in fields that interest him and are within a reasonable driving distance of his home, less than two hours I believe. This allows him to go to the annual meetings and develop a more personal relationship with the company and perhaps a better understanding of their business, as well as being able to ask questions. In fact he reported that the last meeting he attended had only ten stockholders present and the CEO answered all questions at great length.

After reading my post 10 Reasons I think Google is going down he informed me that he bought 10 shares of Google sometime ago at a great discount to todays price. That's a good thing in my opinion because todays price is not one I can rationalize as those following my blogs already know.

Continue reading The hobby portfolio

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Last updated: November 21, 2008: 10:43 PM

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