Analyst initiations:

• Allegheny (NYSE: AYE) was initiated with a buy at Citigroup as attractive at current levels. Target is $33.
• PPL Corp. (NYSE: PPL) was initiated with a buy at Citigroup. Citi believes PPL's earnings power from the Pennsylvania regulated utility market is being underappreciated. Target is $35.
• FirstEnergy (NYSE: FE) was initiated with a Buy at Citigroup who believes the company's current valuation doesn't reflect its transition to full market-based rates in 2011. Target is $56.
• Waste Management (NYSE: WM) coverage resumed with a Neutral at Goldman.
• Exxon (NYSE: XOM) initiated with a Buy at Soleil. Target is $90.
• Vodafone (NYSE: VOD) was initiated with a Buy at ING Group.

Here are some highlights from last week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Activision Blizzard Inc. (NASDAQ: ATVI) shares rose after it reaffirmed its full-year earnings and sales outlook.
• Automatic Data Processing Inc. (NASDAQ: ADP) will have low double-digit EPS growth, predicts one analyst.
• AutoZone Inc. (NYSE: AZO) posted a decline in earnings but a small rise in sales, sending shares lower.
• Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (NASDAQ: BBBY) posted better-than-expected Q2 earnings and higher revenue.
• CarMax Inc. (NYSE: KMX) rallied to a new 52-week high after topping analysts' Q2 earnings expectations.
• Carnival Corp. (NYSE: CCL) reported better-than-expected Q3 results and raised its full-year guidance.

Today was a weak day even before the leading economic indicators brought a disappointment. The dollar was strong ahead of the FOMC meeting decision this week, where the Fed is expected to give less free money but will likely hold rates firm. The good news is that despite a negative news bias from companies, the drops were not as hard as they could have been.

Here were today's unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow 9,778.93 -41.27 (-0.42%)
S&P 500 1,064.71 -3.59 (-0.34%)
Nasdaq 2,138.04 +5.18 (0.24%)

Top Analyst Upgrades/Downgrades
Top Trader Alerts

Analyst upgrades:

• Roth Capital upgraded MicroStrategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) to Buy from Hold and raised its target to $90 from $70, citing encouraging Q2 results, new product cycle catalysts, a lift from Europe, and cost reductions.
• William Blair upgraded Costco (NASDAQ: COST) to Outperform from Market Perform after meeting with management as it believes sales and earnings could beat expectations over the next year.
• Credit Suisse upgraded Novellus (NASDAQ: NVLS) to Outperform from Neutral and raised its target to $29 from $23. The firm cites higher Samsung capex forecast, high leverage, and low expectations.
• Home Properties (NYSE: HME) and Equity Residential (NYSE: EQR) were upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at FBC Capital, while Douglas Emmett (NYSE: DEI) and Duke Realty (NYSE: DRE) were raised to Market Perform from Underperform.
• Agilent (NYSE: A) was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays.
• Cytec Industries (NYSE: CYT) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at KeyBanc.

Late Friday, Potash Corp. (NYSE: POT) cut its 2009 earnings guidance due to "lower than forecasted potash sales volumes" stemming from "slow demand and limited restocking by fertilizer distributors around the world." The fertilizer company now forecasts earnings between $3.25 and $3.75 per share, down from an earlier forecast of $4 to $5 per share. The company also expects third-quarter, per-share earnings to hit at the low end of its determined range between 80 cents and $1.20. The consensus estimate calls for 93 cents per share.

POT had been a stellar performer, hitting a high in the $120 region earlier this year. However, the stock is now in the process of bouncing between the $84 level and its 20-week moving average. The current situation is currently better than the way 2008 ended.

Analyst upgrades:

• Kaufman Bros. upgraded Computer Sciences (NYSE: CSC) and Cognizant (NASDAQ: CTSH) to Buy from Hold on better demand trends as it believes overall enterprise IT spending is turning more positive. The firm raised its target on Computer Sciences to $62 from $54 and on Cognizant to $45 from $42.
• Citigroup upgraded E-Trade (NASDAQ: ETFC) to Buy from Hold as it believes loan less trends have improved and the company could potentially be acquired. Citi raised its target on shares to $2.30 from $1.50.
• Auriga upgraded Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) to Buy from Hold as it believes consensus expectations for 2010 are too low, but admits the company's Q1 results could be fairly weak. Auriga believes Microsoft is coming up to its "most powerful product cycle in many years" and raised its price target on shares to $30 from $24.
• Motorola (NYSE: MOT) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS.
• Fidelity Southern (NASDAQ: LION) was upgraded to Neutral from Reduce at SunTrust.
• Sonoco Products (NYSE: SON) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill.

"Investing in the fertilizer business may not sound sexy, but the dynamics and fundamentals of the food business will turn it into one of the most profitable sectors you could find.," explains global expert Tony Sagami.

In his The Asia Stock Alert he suggests, "Every farmer needs to use fertilizer -- and the most used and most important fertilizer is potash. And Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) is set to make a bundle supplying potash to the world."

"There are approximately 6.6 billion people on our planet today, but that number is expected to grow to 8.2 billion by 2030. That's a lot of mouths to feed. Plus, the amount of food each mouth is eating is also increasing.

Analyst upgrades:

• Pacific Sunwear (NASDAQ: PSUN) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral by Pali Capital, which cited low expectations, new CEO experience, and compelling risk/reward for the upgrade.
• RBC Capital raised Aruba Networks (NASDAQ: ARUN) to Outperform from Sector Perform, based on increased visibility into wireless networking products.
• J. Crew (NYSE: JCG) was upgraded to Hold from Underperform by Needham after the company reported better-than-expected Q2 report and guidance.
• RBC Capital raised Lundin Mining (NYSE: LMC) to Outperform from Sector Perform, citing updated copper forecasts and valuation.
• Netezza (NYSE: NZ) was upgraded to Buy from Accumulate by ThinkEquity.
• Sanofi-Aventis (NYSE: SNY) was raised to Overweight from Neutral by JPMorgan.
• Williams-Sonoma (NYSE: WSM) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral by Goldman.
• Network Engines (NASDAQ: NENG) was raised to Buy from Hold by Cantor.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says even stocks without exposure to that country will probably be on sale today.

If China has pulled back 20%, do we have to pull back 20%, even though they were up 80% and we are up 9%? Are we so in lock step now that when China catches a cold, we are the ones with pneumonia?

I don't think so. It's such an easy story to stretch out, though you can see that our Freeports (NYSE: FCX) (Cramer's Take) and our Exxons (NYSE: XOM) (Cramer's Take) can get hammered.

Analyst upgrades:

• Thomas Weisel upgraded SanDisk (NASDAQ: SNDK) to Overweight from Market Weight due to accelerating manufacturing cost declines, potential NAND flash sourcing upside at Toshiba (OTC: TOSBF) and Samsung and an increase in 2H09 demand.
  
• Oppenheimer upgraded Quality Systems (NASDAQ: QSII) to Perform from Underperform to reflect potential benefits from the stimulus package and channel checks that indicated IT budgets are stabilizing. The firm raised its target price on shares to $54 from $40.
  
• RBC Capital upgraded OSI Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: OSIP) to Outperform from Sector Perform following positive Tarceva survey results and cites valuation.
• Marriott (NYSE: MAR) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at JMP Securities.
  
• Grainger (NYSE: GWW) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill.
  
• Duncan Energy Partners (NASDAQ: DEP) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Accenture Ltd. (NYSE: ACN) beat earnings expectations but revenue was hurt by currency effects.
• Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (NASDAQ: BBBY) strong Q1 results beat estimates but same-store sales fell.
• CKE Restaurants Inc. (NYSE: CKR) lower Q1 earnings and strong sales both topped expectations.
• ConAgra Foods Inc. (NYSE: CAG) higher Q4 earnings were in line with expectations, and shares slipped.
• Darden Restaurants Inc. (NYSE: DRI) Q4 results were higher, but it warned of continuing challenges.
• Hennes & Mauritz (OTC: HMRZF) reported strong Q2 numbers, though same-stores sales slipped.

Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) is under fire today after the firm lowered its second-quarter earnings outlook. Late Thursday, POT said it now expects earnings per share of 70 cents, compared to its prior outlook of $1.10 to $1.50 per share.

The company chalked up its slashed guidance to "substantially lower than forecasted potash sales volumes due to deferral of purchases by customers around the world and lower realized prices for phosphate fertilizers."

POT's full second-quarter results will be reported on July 23. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters are looking for a profit of 81 cents per share, on average.

Analyst upgrades:

• Jefferies upgraded Aruba Networks (NASDAQ: ARUN) to Buy from Hold following the company's Q3 results to reflect improved visibility. The firm raised its target price to $6.50 from $3.
• Citigroup upgraded Mosaic (NYSE: MOS) and Potash (NYSE: POT) to Buy from Hold and Agrium (NYSE: AGU) to Hold from Sell as it believes stronger grain fundamentals more than offset China contract risk. The firm raised its target on Mosaic to $72 from $48, on Potash to $145 from $83 and on Agrium to $55 from $36.
• Fulton Financial (NASDAQ: FULT) Was upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at Keefe Bruyette.
• Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP) was raised to Neutral from Sell at Goldman.
• Noble Corp. (NYSE: NE) was upgraded at Deutsche Bank to Buy from Hold.

The fertilizer sector is one sector that investors who can tolerate moderate risk should not pass up.

I'm Reiterating a Buy recommendation for Potash (NYSE: POT), re-established with a Buy recommendation here on March 31, 2009, and for Mosaic (NYSE: MOS), re-established here on April 3, 2009; and adding a Buy recommendation for Agrium (NYSE: AGU).

Agricultural entity Monsanto (NYSE: MON) reported Q2 numbers on Thursday. While some metrics were down, I came away from the earnings release thinking that the company is probably a good long-term holding. Short-term could be a different story, though, as the stock has had a run-up recently.

Sales increased 8% in the second quarter, but profits on a dollar basis decreased 3%. On an adjusted basis, however, net income beat Wall Street's expectations. Analysts were looking for $2.07 per share. Monsanto delivered $2.16 per share. Excellent.