General Motors (GM) closed up 2% Wednesday, a day after a series of positive reports from banks involved in the company's initial public offering. GM will have a presence at the North American Auto Show beginning on Jan. 10. Overall implied volatility of 31 is at the low end of its one-month range, according to Track Data, suggesting low price movement.

CBOE Volatility Index-VIX closed down 42 cents to 17.06, below its 100-day moving average 21.12.

Continue reading Options Update: General Motors Volatility Low; Shares Close at Post-IPO Record High

Options Update: General Motors Volatility Low; Shares Close at Post-IPO Record High originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 30 Dec 2010 09:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Mosaic: Buy or Sell After Q1 News?

Mosaic: Buy or Sell After Q1 News? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 05 Oct 2010 09:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

In the wake of the BHP Billiton's (BHP) failed $39 billion offer and its new hostile $40 billion takeover bid for Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (POT), agricultural fertilizer companies, including CF Industries Holdings (CF), are starting to look pretty juicy to investors.

Fertilizer companies have been struggling during the past few years as cash-strapped farmers have been pulling back on their purchases, but the tide appears to be changing.

With rising prices for crops like wheat and corn, it is starting to look like it is going to be a really good year for U.S. farmers, which means they are going to have plenty of money to reinvest in new machinery and more fertilizer.

Continue reading CF Industries Growing as Fertilizers Heat Up

CF Industries Growing as Fertilizers Heat Up originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 18 Aug 2010 10:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Bullish bets are popular on Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (POT), according to data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE). During the past 10 days, speculators on the ISE have bought to open 2.03 calls for every put on POT, and this ratio ranks higher than 91% of other such readings taken during the previous year. In other words, options players on the ISE have purchased calls over puts at a faster pace just 9% of the time.

On Friday alone, the ISE reports that traders bought to open 2,031 calls on POT, compared to just 347 calls. The day's most popular strike was POT's January 2011 150-strike call, where 5,147 contracts changed hands -- 52% at the ask price, confirming a bias toward buying activity. Open interest on this LEAPS strike swelled over the weekend by 4,561 contracts, and now stands at 6,188 total positions.

Continue reading Call Buying Climbs on Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan

Call Buying Climbs on Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 16 Aug 2010 12:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

"Investing in the fertilizer business may not sound sexy, but the dynamics and fundamentals of the food business will turn it into one of the most profitable sectors you could find.," explains global expert Tony Sagami.

In his The Asia Stock Alert he suggests, "Every farmer needs to use fertilizer -- and the most used and most important fertilizer is potash. And Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) is set to make a bundle supplying potash to the world."

"There are approximately 6.6 billion people on our planet today, but that number is expected to grow to 8.2 billion by 2030. That's a lot of mouths to feed. Plus, the amount of food each mouth is eating is also increasing.

Continue reading Potash (POT): Long-term growth in fertilizers

Potash (POT): Long-term growth in fertilizers originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 01 Sep 2009 15:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) is under fire today after the firm lowered its second-quarter earnings outlook. Late Thursday, POT said it now expects earnings per share of 70 cents, compared to its prior outlook of $1.10 to $1.50 per share.

The company chalked up its slashed guidance to "substantially lower than forecasted potash sales volumes due to deferral of purchases by customers around the world and lower realized prices for phosphate fertilizers."

POT's full second-quarter results will be reported on July 23. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters are looking for a profit of 81 cents per share, on average.

Continue reading Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan slashes 2Q outlook

Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan slashes 2Q outlook originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 26 Jun 2009 12:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

When Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) fell from its June 2008 peak of $241.62, it fell hard. The stock bottomed out at $47.54 in early December, marking an 80.3% decline from peak to nadir. The shares have recently shown signs of life, though, having gained 78.7% during the past two months.

Even more compelling, POT closed last Friday atop resistance from its 20-week moving average for the first time since August, and appears poised to do so again this week. So, with the stock rallying back from its lows, why are investors gravitating toward bearish bets?

Continue reading Why is put volume exploding on Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan?

Why is put volume exploding on Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 12 Feb 2009 15:02:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This post is part of a special annual report -- Top Stock Picks '09 -- in which TheStockAdvisors.com asked 75 leading newsletter advisors to select their favorite investment for the new year.

"Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT), the world's largest integrated fertilizer company, is my top pick for 2009," says long-term growth stock specialist Dennis Slothower.

In his Stealth Stocks, he explains, "If you are an aggressive investor looking for a stock that has tremendous potential under an Obama massive stimulation program, Potash has significant potential."

The advisor continues, "POT is the largest producer of potash worldwide by capacity. In 2007, it estimates its potash operations represented 17% of global production and 22% of global potash capacity.

"The company is the second largest nitrogen producer worldwide by ammonia capacity. In 2007, POT estimates its nitrogen operations produced 2% of the world's ammonia production. It is also the third largest producer of phosphates worldwide by capacity.

Continue reading Top Stock Picks '09: Potash (POT)

Top Stock Picks '09: Potash (POT) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 03 Jan 2009 09:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Potash Corp of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT - option chain) shares have jumped higher today after the company announced it will cut potash output in 2009 by 2 million tonnes (metric tons), or about 20%, due to weakening demand. Competitor Agrium (NYSE: AGU) also announced production cuts today, which is helping to send agricultural futures higher. Lower production levels could keep prices from falling further. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on POT.

POT opened this morning at $63.90. So far today the stock has hit a low of $63.26 and a high of $68.95. As of 12:15, POT is trading at $68.59, up 6.73 (10.9%). The chart for POT looks bullish and S&P gives POT a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy ranking.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a January bull-put credit spread below the $45 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 7.4% return in just five weeks as long as POT is above $45 at January expiration. POT would have to fall by more than 34% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

POT hasn't been below $47.50 at all in the past year and has shown support around $62 recently.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in POT or AGU.

Potash of Saskatchewan (POT) cuts production originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 10 Dec 2008 14:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Fertilizer firm Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) was hit with a price-target cut from analysts at UBS today. The brokerage firm slashed its target price from $150 to $130, but reiterated its Buy rating on the stock. It's been a schizophrenic day for the company, brokerage-wise; the late-breaking note from UBS effectively dashed the upward momentum POT gained this morning when Dundee upgraded the North American fertilizer sector to Overweight.

In fact, "schizophrenic" more or less sums up analyst activity on POT during the past several weeks. Following its third-quarter earnings report on October 23, Potash Corp. received no fewer than five price-target cuts, along with three reiterations of bullish Buy or better ratings, plus an upgrade. To make matters even more interesting, this is the second price-target cut UBS has issued on POT in the past week -- the first cut, on October 29, was from $165 to $150.

According to Thomson Financial, the deluge of downward revisions might not be over yet. POT's average 12-month price target is $115.98. This consensus estimate represents a rather healthy premium of 36% to the stock's closing price last Friday. Considering that POT shares have plummeted about 41% year-to-date, it seems safe to say that expectations might be too high for this Canadian import.

Continue reading Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan slapped with a price-target cut

Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan slapped with a price-target cut originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 03 Nov 2008 16:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Some agricultural stocks to consider from BusinessWeek

Some agricultural stocks to consider from BusinessWeek originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 20 Jun 2008 15:17:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The stock market is in turmoil today and the reasons can be found elsewhere (including in some peoples' imaginations). But if you are a bottom line investor, then here is where you should be looking. Food and energy exploration are the places to be.

Things can change rapidly, but as of right now food related stocks like Bunge Ltd. (NYSE: BG), the largest company involved with soy based products, and Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT), the largest fertilizer company, are up.

In the exploration sector, Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC), the oil, gas and exploration company, Loews Corporation (NYSE: LTR), which is the majority shareholder in Diamond Offshore Drilling and is separating from its tobacco interests, and Precision Drilling TR (NYSE: PDS), the Canadian contract driller that is expanding into the lower 48 states, are all up.

All five stocks have out performed the market this year and that trend does not seem to be in jeopardy yet.

I will update this post with final results after the market close to see how the story ends.

UPDATE: four of the five closed in positive territory when all the major indices were in the red.

• APC finished down to $77.69, -0.54 (-0.69%)
• BG finished up to $122.40, +0.47 (+0.39%)
• LTR finished up to $48.95, +0.45 (+0.93%)
• PDS finished up to $26.95, +0.49 (+1.85%)
• POT finished up to $223.10 +2.54 (+1.15%)

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of APC and PDS.

Serious Money: What's up today? Food & drillers! originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 11 Jun 2008 13:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Not all agriculture stocks are created equal

Not all agriculture stocks are created equal originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 28 Feb 2008 10:22:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

All this recession talk has not convinced me that we are destined to have one, and I see plenty of signs that 2008 might surprise to the upside. There are plenty of problems within the US economy, and I could make a case that there is a possibility that the economy might catch cold but remedies also exist. I see the cup as half full for the stock market. This is not to say that individuals will not have to deal with hard times, they will - but the market might shine. This can happen because the market is global.

Many widely followed investment icons have a different perspective, including renowned international investor Jim Rogers in the December issue of Fortune who said, "In my view, the U.S. economy is in recession. I know the government says we're not. But as I look around, we know that automobiles are in worse than recession. The same thing is true for home-builders. Much of the financial sector is in worse than recession. So many parts of America are in worse than recession, and yet the government says we're not in a recession. I don't know what's so strong that it's offsetting these major weaknesses in the American economy. I just assume that the government is lying."

I can agree that the government is lying, but I can't agree that the economy is void of positives. There is plenty that is going strong in the economy. The defense sector is going strong as I reported on recently Defense sector rolls over S&P 500 for 8th straight year and there is every indication this will continue.

Continue reading Serious Money: No recession in 2008

Serious Money: No recession in 2008 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 02 Jan 2008 11:03:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.