There's a baseball play-by-play announcer with a pretty good team, whose made a small fortune uttering phrases like, "I tell you what you can do with that prediction: You can take that prediction and throw it in the East River. That's how much that prediction is worth."

In general, the same can be said about economic/budget projections. A little advice regarding economic and budget projections: don't work yourself up in to a lather over them.

Continue reading Investors: Avoid Fretting over 10-Year Projections

Investors: Avoid Fretting over 10-Year Projections originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 27 Dec 2009 13:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Where do I turn next? The experts don't seem to have a clue about our economy and where it is headed. Well then, let's look at the stars.

If you've never heard of such a thing, it sounds pretty crazy. But there is actually a community of investors out there that believes that reading the stars is the key to profiting in the stock market.

I'm not one of them, but it's fun to tap into their insights every now and then. Here is the latest:

The planet Pluto moved into Capricorn this past fall just in time for Freddie, Fannie and AIG to collapse. Capricorn is a sign of discipline. It is a disruptive force that is wreaking havoc from central banks to stock markets all over the world. Capricorn has the effect of looking at things objectively, without emotion and looking at reality the way it is -- not the way we want it to be.

For the past 15 years Pluto was moving through Sagittarius, a sign of expansion, growth, over extension, and over optimism. This could help to explain the way world economies grew helter skelter with the whole world getting over-extended and over-burdened with excessive debt. It was a "devil-may-care" attitude on the part of Wall Street and individuals as well. Now with the bursting of the bubble, the chickens have come home to roost.

Pluto will be going through the U.S. chart 8th house of mystery, death and rebirth. The last time this happened was in 1776!

Do you foresee big changes coming? Do you think the stars can help us decide how to invest?

Astrology and the markets: Pure nonsense? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 03 Jan 2009 12:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

They laughed at Peter Schiff ... but he was right! originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 09 Dec 2008 13:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The outcome of the Belmont Stakes where Big Brown came in last instead of first is just one more example of the difficulty one has in making predictions. I know little about horse racing, and the only thing I know about the Triple Crown is that there has not been a winner in 30 years (and counting). As irony would have it, the winner of the Belmont was the 38-to-1 long shot Da Tara that went wire to wire.

This event stands out in my mind because I am asked to predict future events on a regular basis (whether it makes sense or not), and because I am in the middle of reading The Black Swan about randomness and uncertainty by epistemologist Nassim Nicholas Taleb. I highly recommend the book to fellow investors and business leaders interested in getting some perspective on risk and the many fallacies we all overlook.

The number of variables that can affect a specific outcome like a horse race are significant, and in the case of the Belmont Stakes, on this occasion something was amiss. When Big Brown turned for home, something wasn't right. Jockey Kent Desormeaux knew the big bay colt was finished. Trainer Rick Dutrow Jr., who guaranteed racing's first Triple Crown in 30 years, knew it, too.

Continue reading Sunday Funnies: Big Brown a sure thing at Belmont

Sunday Funnies: Big Brown a sure thing at Belmont originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 08 Jun 2008 09:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

2007 will suck, all 12 months? So says DR Horton CEO originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 07 Mar 2007 17:39:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.