"The third year of the Presidential cycle has historically been the most profitable year of the cycle in terms of stock market performance," says market historian and money manager Jim Stack.

The editor of InvesTech Market Analyst explains, "This third year of the four-year cycle is often characterized by an accommodative Fed policy, and usually accompanied by a stable and growing economy.

"Characteristically, most of the third year gains come in the first half of the year where the first and second quarters are among the strongest in the entire cycle.

Market historian, money manager and newsletter editor, Jim Stack avoids short-term forecasting but has an uncanny record of being properly positioned for major market turns (gaining 81% since 12/99 versus a gain of 13.9% for the S&P over the same period).

Here, the editor of InvesTech Market Analyst assesses the odds for a bear market and/or a recession, looking at various metrics from housing and consumer confidence to interest rates and the Presidential cycle.

"Consumer Confidence, as measured by the Conference Board, has fallen over 24 points in just 4 months – a precipitous decline matched only by past recessions, or in the first year coming out of recession. Housing and automobile sales are clearly in a recession, but other sectors of the economy still seem very resilient .

"Unemployment is now running at 5%, up 0.6% pts. from a 5-year low of 4.4% early last year. It doesn't take an economics major to look back on 60 years of unemployment history and recognize this is not good news for the U.S. economy.

"We have review all periods when the Unemployment Rate has risen 0.6% pts. from a 2-year low. In 6 out of 9 instances, the economy was already in recession. In the remaining 3, a recession wasn't far off. Are these the kind of odds you want to bet against, as an investor?

"Many analysts feel that we are in a bear market or soon will be; we disagree," says Dan Sullivan. In his The Chartist, the advisor looks at several seasonal and sentiment indicators that remain bullish.

"The overall sentiment amongst individual investors is extremely negative, which in the upside down world of Wall Street is a very healthy sign.

"In their most recent poll, the bearish contingent of the American Association of Individual Investors had 55% in the bearish camp. This means that 55% of the investors polled by AAII expect the market to be lower over the next six months.

"The current bearish reading has only been surpassed on two occasions over the past four years. There were 58% AAII bears back on July 14, 2006. Over the next six months, the Dow posted a gain of 14.79%. And the AAII bearish contingent hit 56% on November 23, 2007, one day before the bottom of the October/November sell-off.