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Time Warner target trimmed at CIBC

Despite Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) bringing to Google Inc (NASDAQ: GOOG) its concerns over potential copyright issues on YouTube, and despite all of the efforts the company is taking to streamline its operations, not "every" analyst is finding a new fresh positive bias on the stock.

This morning CIBC noted a lack of confidence in the ongoing turnaround and direction of Time Warner's AOL unit. The firm lowered its stock price target down to $20 from its previous $21 target, and maintained its Sector Perform rating on the stock. It feels the sum of the parts is now around that $20 level.

This follows the Merrill Lynch upgrade yesterday. So far the street has taken little interest in this research note this morning. CIBC is actually not even listed as one of the top eight analysts according to StarMine.

TWX is down 21 cents, or 1%, to $19.03 at 2:45 p.m. today after putting in a new 52-week high for a closing price of $19.24 yesterday.

Goldman raises Microsoft target to $33

In a research note today, Rick Sherlund of Goldman Sachs lifted his target on Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) from $30 to $33. Sherlund is considered "The Axe" on The Street -- the analyst most accurate and connected to Microsoft.

As reasons for the upgrade, his note cited share buybacks, but he was also positive on new product releases. He is also encouraged by the initial feedback on Windows Vista, especially since we are essentially one quarter away from its launch. The research note also raises expectations for Microsoft's new Zune media player debuted yesterday, but Sherlund thinks that the Apple share of the market and loyalty to iTunes could be a market constraint.

One interesting note here is that he had modeled a March launch for Vista and now thinks it will be a late January or early February launch. He believes vouchers or coupons will be released in late November so that the PC sales for the holidays will not be slowed by customers waiting for the operating system upgrade. He laid out a few scenarios about what that could mean financially, but he anticipated a revenue change to his model of only 2% - 4%.

The last part of Sherland's note said that he expects Xbox 360 to win out over Sony's PS3 and he even stated that he expects Xbox will be a profitable operation one year out.

This research note actually has a lot of "update" information in it that one would have honestly expected him to have already come out with, but since he is the Axe, you can expect others to follow suit with positive commentary on Microsoft. Most analysts have had positive official ratings on MSFT for what seems like forever, so rating changes may be in the form of estimates and price target revisions if the Street follows suit.

MSFT is trading up 0.75% at $26.53 pre-market on almost 700,000 shares; and that is after the stock closed up $0.35 at $26.33 yesterday on 74 million shares.

John C. Ogg is a partner at financial blog 24/7 Wall St.

eBay after the bell 6-16-06: more trouble in China

ebay 3-month stock chart 06-16-06Despite good news from Wall Street analysts today: Rochdale Securities upgraded eBay to buy from hold with a $35 target price, and RBC initiated coverage at hold, with the same price target, eBay slipped nearly 1.5% today to close at $30.28.

Concerns are mounting among investors especially after a local research firm in Taipei released its data.  The analyst claims eBay has been losing ground in China to one of its competitors, especially in the C2C (consumer to consumer) sales.

Somewhat different were the words of Martin Wu, chief executive at eBay China.  He claimed only a few weeks ago that revenue increased more than 10 per cent in the first quarter and that revenue of its competitor Taobao, remained unchanged.

The attempt to consolidate the difference between the analyst's data and the chairman data were unfruitful.

eBay was the leader in the Chinese auction market but in January had to drop transaction fees from basic C2C services.  This is due to the introduction of a free auction service by rival Taobao in 2004 that caused a massive flight of consumers in its direction.

But have no fear, Forbes has just published an article saying that in the event of a bird flu pandemic, eBay should do well.  Here's something to hope for.

Merrill Lynch lowers price targets for eBay, Google

Guess it is about time that Merrill Lynch realized that its price targets for some Internet stocks were a bit too lofty (is the legacy of Henry Blodget still alive and well at that firm?).

Today Merrill lowered targets for both eBay and Google -- keeping an "attractive" recommendation on both stocks -- but admitting that its estimate for how much investors would be willing to pay was too high. In Wall  Street parlance, the reassessment was "due to lower multiple assumptions" as Theflyonthewall.com  reports (subscription required).

Now, try not to laugh. But here's the change in price targets:

eBay, now trading at $33, was lowered to $44 from $51. The firm sees the new deal with Yahoo as a potential catalyst. It will need a catalyst to get to $44 from here.

Google, now trading at $373, was lowered from $540 to $490. Still an ambitious target.

Seems to me like Merrill is still feeling quite optimistic.

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Last updated: May 28, 2012: 10:05 PM

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