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Chasing Value: Novartis, Telefonica, Unilever Bought on Fear

Telefonica (TEF) logoIn the midst of deep fear and melodramatic headlines in May, I dove into the market suggesting investors take a hard look at three companies that would survive anything the world could throw at them.

There are often profits to be made from the headlines as fear and greed drive the market. You must have read umpteen times in journals worldwide "my pal Warren's" trumpeting smart investors to buy on fear. Well, last may Novartis AG ADS (NVS), Telefonica SA (TEF) and Unilever ADR (UL) were on sale as fear ruled the day. So let's see how these ideas worked out.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Novartis, Telefonica, Unilever Bought on Fear

Earnings Releases: Procter & Gamble and Visa

PG earnings, Visa earningsBoth Procter & Gamble (PG) and Visa (V) are stocks I consider potentially solid long-term bets. You could hold the pair in a core portfolio, although I concede that Visa will obviously be the more volatile, and risky, of the two. When you think about it, each one possesses great brand equity and provides products that will be in demand for years to come. Laundry detergent and plastic credit/debit cards will most likely never become obsolete.

Wednesday saw the release of each company's latest earnings report. P&G, which was issuing numbers for the first quarter, said it made $1.02 per share from continuing operations. This was two pennies ahead of the estimate.

Continue reading Earnings Releases: Procter & Gamble and Visa

Kimberly-Clark Earnings: Time to Buy or Sell?

Kimberly-Clark (KMB) was a weak stock on Tuesday. By the end of the session, it had sold off by 5.8% to $62.61. Volume was very strong as investors digested the latest earnings release.

That $62.61 price places the stock at around the midpoint of the yearly range: The 52-week low is $58.25 while the 52-week high is $67.24. After realizing how tight the range is, it's no surprise that the one-year chart would be an up-down affair. With yesterday's plunge, could it be that now is the time to get in on the shares? Are they a trade?

Continue reading Kimberly-Clark Earnings: Time to Buy or Sell?

Analyst Calls: AMZN, BTU, CA, EXPE, MOT, OI, PG, SCSC, TSL, TUP ...

Analyst Upgrades

  • BMO Capital upgraded Procter & Gamble (PG) to outperform from market perform as it views P&G's valuation as attractive and expects growth to pick up in the March quarter. The firm has a $74 price target for shares.
  • Goldman upgraded Tupperware (TUP) to buy from neutral and raised its target for shares to $60 from $48.
  • Stifel Nicolaus upgraded Scansource (SCSC) to buy from hold. The firm believes that the company's growth is poised to accelerate, allowing the stock's multiple to expand or even rise slightly. The firm has a $43 target for shares.
  • CA Technologies (CA) was upgraded to outperform from sector perform at RBC Capital.
  • Brady (BRC) was upgraded to market perform from underperform at BMO Capital.
  • Lukoil (LUKOY) was upgraded to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan.

Continue reading Analyst Calls: AMZN, BTU, CA, EXPE, MOT, OI, PG, SCSC, TSL, TUP ...

McDonald's: Still a Good Idea After Latest Comps Report?

McDonald's (MCD) logoMcDonald's (MCD) was down Monday. What a disappointment. How can Mickey D's be down when the rest of the market was up? Hey, it happens.

But here's the interesting thing about the shares. Even though they closed down 0.6% (in some sense, that isn't really down so much as it is flat) to $74.57, they're still rather close to the 52-week high of $76.26 -- and quite far off from the 52-week low of $53.88. There's something to be said for that these days, right?

Continue reading McDonald's: Still a Good Idea After Latest Comps Report?

Procter & Gamble's Dull Price Action

Procter & Gamble (PG) isn't in the green. At the time of this writing, shares of the consumer concern were flat. They were off by a mere nine pennies to $60.31. Perhaps they'll end up in the green by the end of the day, who knows, but one thing's for sure: if you own shares of this one, you're having one heck of a boring Monday.

And you might be bored by something else. According to TheFly, guidance for the full fiscal year hasn't been changed. Management continues to expect the bottom line to come in somewhere between $3.91 per share and $4.01 per share.

Continue reading Procter & Gamble's Dull Price Action

Chasing Value: Granny Said, 'It Has Turned into One Big Casino'

Here is a common sentiment about the stock market: "No fun at all. As I have said before, I believe it has turned into one big casino largely divorced from its original goal of providing capital to companies who produce something of value."

There's a lot of truth to what "granny" recently said to me in an e-mail. Fortunately she also noted "FYI Granny's up 5.86% + dividends." That would give her a gain of about 10% in the past ten months since I posted Where should granny put $50,000, suggesting a very conservative portfolio for an uncertain time.

Not only has she earned a very nice return, surpassing her CD account by 9.5% (20 fold), but she was able to do so with a great deal less volatility than the overall market most of us have lived through.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Granny Said, 'It Has Turned into One Big Casino'

Clorox Flat on Earnings News

The Clorox Company (CLX) shares haven't done too badly over the last twelve months. The chart shows something of an upward bias to the stock. It was trading near the 52-week high of $66.44 after the consumer-products company issued its fiscal fourth-quarter report on Tuesday.

The reaction to the news wasn't so enthused. Shares closed down slightly to $64.47. Of course, it was a lot better than what happened to colleague The Procter & Gamble Company (PG). That stock saw a significant sell-off on its quarterly data.

Continue reading Clorox Flat on Earnings News

Procter & Gamble Sold on Earnings News -- Don't Listen to the Bears!

Wow! Procter & Gamble (PG) is in the midst of a sell-off as I write this. The stock is down better than $2 to $59.80. In percentage terms, shareholders are looking at a drop of well over 3%. Volume is strong.

What's driving all the selling? Of course, it has to be an earnings report. For the fiscal fourth quarter, P&G saw a 9% decline in per-share profit to 71 cents. Not only was there a decline, but expectations were missed. Yes, the insult to the injury lies in the fact that analysts were hoping for 73 cents per share.

Continue reading Procter & Gamble Sold on Earnings News -- Don't Listen to the Bears!

Blue Chip Buys: The Timely Ten

"Our primary purpose is to assist investors in growing their capital and income base from which to derive cash for their current and future needs," says blue chip stock specialist Kelley Wright.

The editor of Investment Quality Trends explains, "To that end we believe that high-quality stocks purchased at historically low-price-to-high-yield offers the best potential for downside protection and upside appreciation.

"The Timely Ten list of stocks is our reasoned expectation based on our methodology and experience for what we believe will perform best over the next five years.

Continue reading Blue Chip Buys: The Timely Ten

The Timely Ten: Blue Chip Buys from IQ Trends

Chevron CVX logo"Fear is back and it can be seen in the internals. So what is one to do? What we always do: identify quality, establish value, and take advantage of opportunity when it presents itself," suggests Kelley Wright.

The editor of Investment Quality Trends -- an advisory service that assesses blue chip stocks by analyzing their historic dividend yield levels -- adds, "While all ships go out with the tide, value is eventually rewarded. Remember, we are in this for the long haul.

"Our current Timely Ten -- featured below -- is our reasoned expectation based on our methodology and experience for what we believe will perform best over the next five years. Do we believe that all 10 will go up simultaneously or immediately? Of course not.

Continue reading The Timely Ten: Blue Chip Buys from IQ Trends

Analyst Calls: AGP, BCSI, CL, DECK, PG, MON, RHT, RY, TTWO, WFC ...

Analyst Upgrades

  • Thomas Weisel upgraded Deckers Outdoor (DECK) to overweight from market weight following channel checks. The firm also raised its target for shares to $170 from $162.
  • Deutsche Bank upgraded Amerigroup (AGP) to buy from hold as it believes the company is well positioned to benefit from health care reform. The firm upped its target for shares to $42 from $38.
  • Cowen upgraded Cubist Pharmaceuticals (CBST) to outperform from neutral, citing increased conviction in Cubicin's patent exclusivity.
  • OmniVision (OVTI) was upgraded to strong buy from buy at Needham.
  • Take-Two (TTWO) was upgraded to buy from hold at ThinkEquity.
  • Wells Fargo (WFC) was upgraded to buy from neutral at Sterne Agee.

Continue reading Analyst Calls: AGP, BCSI, CL, DECK, PG, MON, RHT, RY, TTWO, WFC ...

Serious Money: Buying the Super Caps, Part 6 -- Conclusions

The twelve super caps are down to seven: Proctor & Gamble, Wal-Mart, Johnson & Johnson, China Mobile, PetroChina, Microsoft and ExxonMobil. Five are American companies and two are Chinese. The five U.S.-based enterprises have historically strong management teams and balance sheets. If this was the only criteria, I might take pause when considering the two Chinese companies only because I do not know enough about them to make a judgment, except that they have been very successful.

"My pal Warren" placed a large bet on PetroChina (PTR), which he has since sold off, but he always makes a big deal about management, so we will give these two the benefit of the doubt. The two also pay the highest yields among the group.

So where do we stand today? We'll stick with all seven and here is why.

Continue reading Serious Money: Buying the Super Caps, Part 6 -- Conclusions

Serious Money: Buying the Super Caps, Part 5 -- ROE, ROIC

The market continues to be very volatile and trending down. When the seas are this turbulent you want to be on the biggest ships and thus I continue my review of the super cap stocks. This time, I'm going to examine return-on-equity (ROE) and return on-invested-capital (ROIC).

I started with the 12 highest valued companies but remained with 10 after running them through several screens. Among those 10 super, caps the company that is producing the highest returns is Microsoft (MSFT).

Continue reading Serious Money: Buying the Super Caps, Part 5 -- ROE, ROIC

Serious Money: Buying the Super Caps, Part 4 -- the Dividend

China Mobil CHL logoIt's a cliché but it rings so true: just show me the money! In the case of stocks that's profits and distributions, or dividends.

The super cap review, in which I examine large cap stocks through different valuation methods, started with the 12 stocks with the highest capitalization and through several stock screens has been trimmed to just 10 stocks.

It has been widely reported that dividends contribute as much as 40% of the market stock appreciation on long term holdings. All things being equal, a diversified basket of dividend paying stocks should outperform a similarly diversified portfolio that does not.

Continue reading Serious Money: Buying the Super Caps, Part 4 -- the Dividend

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Last updated: May 28, 2012: 10:11 PM

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