"Warren Buffett's holding company, Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B), has been the single greatest investment of our lifetimes," says Alexander Green, noting, "His compounded annual gain from 1966 to 2007 was 21.1% vs. 10.3% or the S&P 500."
In the Oxford Insight, the investment director explains, "It is now time to buy the 'ultimate no-brainer'." Here's his assessment.
"Despite this strong long-term performance, Buffett experienced a rare earnings letdown during the second quarter of this year.
"Although revenue increased 10% to $29.3 billion, insurance related write-downs hurt the company's bottom line. Still, the shortfall was far from cataclysmic. For the quarter, earnings fell 7.6% to $2.88 billion.
"Despite the shortfall, the company still maintains a top-notch credit rating and has over $28 billion in cash, a war chest for the world's greatest investor. How has Buffett been so successful? He takes a disciplined value approach to investing. And he sticks with it.
Should those who own shares of Kraft immediately put an order in to dump the stock? Well, shareholders know what is best for them and their specific situations, but if you want my opinion, I don't think Kraft is a sell.
For starters, that $1.88 per share figure represents an adjustment related to the sale of the Post cereal asset. It therefore doesn't bother me too much. And as for the 2009 estimate, Kraft's $2-per-share guidance includes a $0.03 charge for the Post-cereal exit and monies devoted to cost savings. Analyst estimates for the most part don't factor adjustments into their bottom-line figures. So, this guidance doesn't really frighten me.
What I think is more telling is the issue of margins. Consumer-products companies such as Hershey (NYSE: HSY), Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), Kellogg (NYSE: K) and PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP) all have margins on their corporate minds. From what I can tell, Kraft has been pretty successful at protecting itself from inflation by utilizing price increases.
Since July 11, the price of oil has fallen 25% from $147 to $110. This has been terrible news for holders of energy stocks -- which have nosedived. But for people who need to fill up their tanks, prices at the pump remain relatively elevated -- having fallen about 10% (I remember paying $4.11 at the peak and now pay $3.69 a gallon).
Meanwhile, the New York Times reports that companies using oil in their products are keeping their prices high despite the oil price drop. These companies seem to be acting in unison to raise prices -- suggesting there is not enough competition in their markets.
Which companies are raising prices still? Those who believe they can get away with it as they try to recoup the lost profit resulting from the recent increase in the price of oil -- which is an important raw material in their products..
Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) increased prices to retailers up 7% to 10% "for items made with ingredients derived from oil to 'recover costs already incurred,'" according to a Times interview with its spokesman.
Dow Chemical (NYSE: DOW) raised prices by 50% for the oil-based raw materials that go into diapers and polystyrene. It "does not want to give up those increases until the company recovers its old profit margins since '[its] prices continue to lag [its] cost increases,''" according to a Times interview with its spokesman.
Goodyear Tire and Rubber (NYSE: GT) has raised tire prices by 15% and is "still making synthetic rubber tires from oil-based feed stocks bought at relatively high prices more than three months ago [and it] 'could not consider canceling the price increase until it knew whether oil prices were going to stay down,'" according to a Times interview with its spokesman.
This past week, Sears Holdings Corp. (NASDAQ: SHLD) announced the addition of two new senior executives to replace the departing heads of its business segments. The former head of Motorola's (NYSE: MOT) mobile devices business, Stu Reed, will become senior vice president of Sears's home services unit. His predecessor was Mark Good. Former Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) senior executive Guenther Trieb will take charge of the Kenmore, Craftsman, and Diehard brands.
Hoffman Estates, Ill.-based Sears also announced the impending departure of Chief Marketing Officer Maureen McGuire. Senior vice president Richard Gerstein, also of the marketing team, will serve as chief marketing officer of Kmart and Sears.
Earlier this year Chairman Eddie Lampert split the company into five business units. But, the company reported in May its largest quarterly loss since the merger of Kmart and Sears in 2005. The company is scheduled to report second quarter results this week. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial on average expect a profit of 33 cents per share, up from a loss of 53 cents in the previous quarter, but still down from net income of $1.14 in the same quarter a year ago. Also, Sears has tended to offer negative surprises in the most recent quarterly reports. Analysts rate Sears as underperforming.
Shares closed Friday at $88.43, which is down 13.4% since the beginning of the year and down 38.4% from a year ago.
The stock market was down yesterday and it is down again today. Bearish sentiment is roaming through Wall Street right now, so I thought I would look back on another occasion when the market was going through similar turmoil and I wrote about the following eight stocks, which I thought would be "safe havens" in such a storm.
Six of the eight did well and two did not, and of course one of those two was a disaster. Among the losers, I do not think anyone is fretting about UPS, which is still one of the few triple-A rated companies along with Berkshire Hathaway. It has been well reported that the slowing economy and higher fuel prices have been the major culprits affecting UPS's earnings. In the case of WaMu, it's demise has also been well reported, but at the time I recommended it WaMu had a stellar reputation of growth and high yield for over two decades. There is no hiding, it turned out to be a lousy pick and an ANTI-SAFE Haven
Washington Mutual(NYSE: WM) closed Monday at $4.21 down from $45.50; a 98% loss.
Fortunately the remaining six picks have done very, very well. If you had bought the pool, the average gain over the last two years would have been 7.14%. Adding the dividends over the two years would have raised this to 13.14%.
Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) reported its Q4 and full-year results on Tuesday. The numbers looked very good to me (save for one, which I'll get to). P&G was up over 3% on Tuesday. Granted, the Dow saw one heck of a rally yesterday, but even so, P&G deserved a bid just due to its blue-chip corporate performance.
Revenues for the quarter increased 10%, and adjusted earnings per diluted share jumped over 19% to $0.80. For the year, revenues increased 9% and adjusted earnings per diluted share rose 15% to $3.50. As I stated in my earnings preview from the other day, Wall Street was looking for adjusted earnings to be around $0.78 per share. So P&G beat by two pennies.
Of course, the earnings beat is nice, but cash flow is even nicer. In fact, management likes to evaluate itself by comparing its free cash flow to net earnings. P&G would like the so-called "free cash flow productivity" metric to equal at least 90%. Well, shareholders need not worry, since productivity in these terms was 96% for the quarter and 106% for the fiscal year. Free cash flow for the year expanded by 21%, and it was more than enough to power P&G's great dividend.
The company that brings you Ivory Soap, Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), is set to divulge its Q4 numbers on Tuesday. So, what should shareholders expect from this consumer-products behemoth?
Well, I don't think it's going to be much of a surprise. Data at Earnings.com suggest that analysts believe P&G will do $0.78 per share in terms of the bottom line. Management actually expects around that number, as well. A recent piece I wrote about P&G reiterating its guidance shows that between $0.76 and $.78 per share is the range being looked at. So, I think we'll see the top end of the range reported tomorrow. P&G has a solid recent history of slightly beating expectations. Perhaps there will be a beat, but it most likely won't be by more than a penny.
This will represent pretty decent performance in a market wracked by horrible inflationary pressures. Going back to Earnings.com, the previous year's bottom-line number was $0.67 per share, so P&G will be looking at good double-digit growth. The top line, by the way, should expand at least 8%. Volume data will also be important to look at so investors can get a handle on how successfully the company is cultivating price increases. P&G has a significant advantage over competitors since its line of products is so well-known and trusted. I mean, when it comes to things like Ivory Soap, many consumers will refuse to alter their brand loyalties even if they have to pay more at the pump. Yes, sales of generic products obviously do have a challenging impact, but as I found with Kraft's (NYSE: KFT) recent earnings report, brand equity is a selective advantage in the Darwinian landscape of supermarket shelves. It's also useful for protecting margins.
The New York Times reports that Citigroup (NYSE: C) plans to commit $400 million to its naming rights deal for the stadium of the New York Mets. I say stop this deal!
Why? There are so many examples of companies that got into trouble after they named stadiums after themselves. In Boston, the stadium where the New England Patriots play was named after Gillette -- but Gillette doesn't exist anymore -- Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) bought it in 2005. And we had the Fleet Center, where the Boston Celtics play -- but Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) bought Fleet in 2003. And we also had the Tweeter Center, a concert venue -- named after Tweeter Home Enterprises which filed for bankruptcy last June. Fortunately, Boston's other world championship team, the Red Sox, has the good sense to deny naming rights to any company for its Fenway Park.
Now for Citi. According to the Times, it made its 20-year deal for the Mets naming rights back in November 2006 under previous CEO, Chuck Prince, after netting $5.3 billion in 2006's third quarter. But in the past three quarters, it has lost $17 billion - including a $2.5 billion loss reported on Friday.
Well-known maker of peanut-butter and jelly products J.M. Smucker (NYSE: SJM) reported earnings for Q4 and the full fiscal year on Thursday. The market didn't like the report in the least. The stock closed down well over 8% at the end of yesterday's session.
Here's what happened. For the fourth quarter, net sales increased 20%, but that was little consolation to the bottom line, which dropped 11%, as earnings per diluted share came in at $0.67 versus $0.75 in the year-ago period. The top line also was the beneficiary of some inorganic growth based on acquisitions. If you adjust for certain items, bringing the earnings up to $0.73 per diluted share, the decrease in the bottom line improves to 3%, but a decline in this case is still a decline. Plus, earnings expectations were not met. The company came in five pennies shy of Wall Street's wishes, according to estimates posted at earnings.com.
For the fiscal year, J.M Smucker's top line increased 18%, also due in part to acquisitions. On both a reported and an adjusted basis, earnings per diluted share jumped 9% to $3.00. Margins really suffered during the quarter and the year. Input costs are inflating, and they're becoming difficult to manage.
In a move to help cut expenses and save on fuel prices, UAL Corporation (NASDAQ: UAUA), parent of United Airlines, will reduce its 460 airplane fleet by 70 jets. Not yet known is how may jobs will be affected, the Wall Street Journal reported.
In an all stock deal, J.M. Smucker Co. (NYSE: SJM) is expected to buy Folgers coffee from The Proctor & Gamble Company (NYSE: PG) for an estimated $2B, according to the Wall Street Journal. Folgers, the best selling ground coffee in the U.S., has annual sales of about $1.6B.
The Financial Times reported that Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc (NYSE: LEH) lost $500M-$700M on some of its hedging positions in Q2, which have contributed to a larger than expected loss that could result in the bank raising more capital by selling a stake to an outside investor. Lehman has begun negotiations with potential investors, including asset managers and Asian banks, sources said.
OTHER PAPERS:
According to sources, the Rocky Mountain News reported that troubled home builder Beazer Homes USA Inc (NYSE: BZH) is pulling out of Colorado. Beazer, which is being investigated for mortgage fraud by several government agencies, has built homes in the suburbs of Denver and in Colorado Springs.
This post is part of our Battle of the Brands feature. Let us know which brand you prefer, and check out other Battle of the Brands posts.
In the world of diapers, try as other brands might to gain a foothold, it is really a Pampers vs. Huggies world.
Pampers, made by Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) has been the market share winner for decades and is P&G's top global brand. But Huggies, made by Kimberly-Clark (NYSE: KMB) has made significant inroads thanks to frequent discounts.
Consumer Reports estimates parents will spend between $1,500 and $2,000 on disposable diapers before their child is potty trained. With that kind of investment, many parents have strong views about which brand is best. Leakage control and rash prevention are the main criteria. Consumer reports rates Pampers (both its Cruisers and Baby Dry brands) higher than Huggies, mainly due to Pampers' superior leakage prevention.
Baby blogs also seem to favor Pampers over Huggies. And in my experience, I do think of Pampers as the "premium" and was surprised that when I actually checked price tags in my local drug store this week, found that they were priced exactly the same.
For my diaper dollar, I don't see much of a difference between the two. I'm all for changing the baby more often and buying a cheaper diaper. If you really put the diapers to the test with, say an eight-hour day at the playground without a change, you might find a difference. But my priority is to spend as little time and money diaper shopping as possible. Costco stocks Huggies in bulk, so that's what we have now.
This post is part of our Battle of the Brands feature. Let us know which brand you prefer, and check out other Battle of the Brands posts.
When it comes to multi-bladed disposable razors, how many blades is enough? In the long-standing rivalry between the two biggest brands of disposable razors, the current answer seems to be five. For now.
The Gillette company, which in 2005 became part of Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), invented the safety razor in 1895, as well as the first razor marketed to women in 1916. They started the current arms race in multi-bladed disposable razors by introducing a twin-blade razor in 1971, and then the triple-bladed Mach 3 in 1998. Schick responded with the four-blade Quattro in 2003, then in 2005, Gillette introduced the five-blade Fusion. Of course, each of these models includes a version for women, and versions with various bells and whistles.
St. Louis-based Energizer Holdings (NYSE: ENR), a U.S. manufacturer of batteries, purchased the Schick brand of razors from Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) in 2003. Outside the North America and Australia, the same products are sold under the Wilkinson Sword brand. Either way, Schick remains a distant second to Gillette in global sales, though some analysts saw patent infringement lawsuits filed against Schick by Gillette as evidence that Gillette recognized a potential threat. Combined, these two brands account for nearly all razor sales in America.
Since July 11, the price of oil has fallen 25% from $147 to $110. This has been terrible news for holders of energy stocks -- which have nosedived. But for people who need to fill up their tanks, prices at the pump remain relatively elevated -- having fallen about 10% (I remember paying $4.11 at the peak and now pay $3.69 a gallon). 
This past week, 
The stock market was down yesterday and it is down again today. Bearish sentiment is roaming through Wall Street right now, so I thought I would look back on another occasion when the market was going through similar turmoil and I wrote about the following eight stocks, which I thought would be "safe havens" in such a storm.
Here are some highlights from this past week's 
Procter & Gamble
The company that brings you Ivory Soap, 
The 
Well-known maker of peanut-butter and jelly products 
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This post is part of our 
This post is part of our 
Stocks have their worst week in six years
Why haven't the Republicans said much about the economy?
Chasing Value: Are you watching WaMu?
