The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets again this week to review economic conditions and set monetary policy. On whether the Fed should end quantitative easing or extend it, Atlanta Fed chairman Dennis Lockhart recently said that the Fed should remain flexible given the rising energy prices, which could be a sign of coming inflation. Either at this meeting or the next, the Fed could signal that interest rates will rise as a hedge against inflation.

Inflation will also be the focus when the Department of Labor releases the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) this week. Back in January the core PPI (which excludes energy and food costs) had its biggest jump in two years, and the core CPI had its largest uptick in more than year, the second month in a row in which consumer prices jumped.

Continue reading Week in Preview: Inflation, the FOMC and Nike Earnings

Week in Preview: Inflation, the FOMC and Nike Earnings originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 13 Mar 2011 12:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading U.S. Stock Futures Up After Dell Reports Upbeat Earnings

U.S. Stock Futures Up After Dell Reports Upbeat Earnings originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 16 Feb 2011 08:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Alcoa (AA), Intel (INTC) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) will kick off a new earnings season this week when they report their results for the fourth quarter of 2010. Here's a quick look at what analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect to see, followed by a glance at what's coming up on the economic calendar.

Alcoa

During its fourth quarter, Alcoa saw increased demand in emerging markets, sold surplus properties, and shared revenue targets with investors. Analysts forecast that earnings for the period will come to 19 cents per share, up from just a penny per share in the same quarter of last year. The New York-based aluminum producer also is expected to post revenue of $5.7 billion for the three months that ended in December, which is 4.5% more than a year earlier.

Continue reading Week in Preview: Alcoa, Intel, JPMorgan Kick Off New Earnings Season

Week in Preview: Alcoa, Intel, JPMorgan Kick Off New Earnings Season originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 09 Jan 2011 12:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

FedEx Corp. (FDX), the world's leading package delivery service and an ostensible bellwether of the U.S. economy, will dance its way onto the earnings stage this week. Also, with the holiday shopping season well underway, Best Buy Co. (BBY) and Discover Financial Services (DFS) are scheduled to offer up their most recent quarterly results.

Here's a closer look at what the analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters are expecting from these three, plus a peek at the week's economic calendar.

Continue reading Week in Preview: FedEx, Best Buy, Discover to Deliver Earnings

Week in Preview: FedEx, Best Buy, Discover to Deliver Earnings originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 12 Dec 2010 12:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

According to the Labor Department, U.S. producer prices increased a seasonally adjusted 0.4% during October thanks mainly to an increase in energy prices.

Energy prices increased 3.7% during the month, the largest monthly increase since January. This increase was driven (so to speak) by a 9.8% increase in gasoline prices. Food prices dropped 0.1% during the month, with plunge led by a drop of 8.1% in the government's index for fresh and dry vegetables.

Continue reading U.S. Producer Prices Increase During October

U.S. Producer Prices Increase During October originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 16 Nov 2010 13:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Last week, Macy's (M) and JCPenney (JCP) kicked off the retail earnings season by posting better-than-expected earnings for the most recent quarter. Many more quarterly reports from retailers are due this week, and by and large expectations of analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters are high.

Walmart (WMT), the king of retailers, is expected to buck the trend, though. Analysts anticipate that the Bentonville-based company will report that its third-quarter earnings grew only 6.7% year-over-year to 90 cents per share. During the three months that ended in October, Walmart announced an acquisition in South Africa and kicked-off the holiday shopping season, and revenue for that period is predicted to have risen 3.0% to $102.4 billion. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, analysts so far expect sequential and year-over-year growth of both earnings and revenue. Walmart results have not fallen short of consensus estimates in the past five quarters.

Continue reading Week in Preview: Retailers Offer Up Earnings (WMT, ANF, LOW, TGT)

Week in Preview: Retailers Offer Up Earnings (WMT, ANF, LOW, TGT) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 14 Nov 2010 12:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke gave his reasons for more quantitative easing, dubbed QE2, in a speech at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, and reported in the Wall Street Journal.

The linchpin of his thesis is that inflation is too low, currently running at 1.1%. This is lower than the 2% level that the Fed had previously set.

Bernanke gave a rather gloomy assessment of the economy, saying that business spending has slowed, consumer finances are improving unevenly, housing remains depressed and job growth isn't enough to bring down unemployment.

Continue reading Bernanke: Inflation Too Low and Economic Growth Too Slow

Bernanke: Inflation Too Low and Economic Growth Too Slow originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 15 Oct 2010 12:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The earnings season kicked off last week with better-than-expected results from Alcoa (AA) and Yum! Brands (YUM), while Marriott (MAR) and Pepsico (PEP) met consensus EPS estimates. This week, bellwether companies Intel (INTC), General Electric (GE), Google (GOOG) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) are scheduled to report their third-quarter results, and analysts polled by Thomson Reuters are looking for earnings growth from all of them.

Santa Clara, Calif.-based Intel announced the acquisition of McAfee and joint ventures with General Electric and Nokia (NOK) during its third quarter. Analysts forecast earnings for that period to come to 50 cents per share, which is up 34.0% from the same period of last year. The number one semiconductor maker's revenue for the three months ended in September is expected to total $11.0 billion, or 17.1% more than a year earlier. Looking ahead to the full year, the forecast thus far is for earnings of $1.94 per share (+44.8%) and $43.3 billion in revenue (+23.4%). The per-share earnings topped analysts' expectations in the past four quarters, by as much as a dime per share.

Continue reading Week in Preview: Earnings Expectations for Intel, GE, Google and JPMorgan

Week in Preview: Earnings Expectations for Intel, GE, Google and JPMorgan originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 10 Oct 2010 12:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Producer Prices Rose in August

Producer Prices Rose in August originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 16 Sep 2010 10:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Last week, the Fed's Beige Book report confirmed that the economy continues to grow, but at a slower pace than in previous periods. This week will bring plenty of economic data to either support or contrast with the Fed's findings.

• Monday: Federal government budget balance for August
• Tuesday: Business inventory numbers from July, TIPP Economic Optimism Index for September, retail sales data from August
• Wednesday: Industrial production in August, Empire State Manufacturing Survey for September, Import Price Index for August
• Thursday: Producer Price Index for August, Philly Fed Survey for September, the Current Account Balance in the second quarter, jobless claims for last week
• Friday: preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, Consumer Price Index for August, real earnings data for August

Continue reading The Week in Preview: FedEx, Best Buy, Oracle and Lots of Economic Data

The Week in Preview: FedEx, Best Buy, Oracle and Lots of Economic Data originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 12 Sep 2010 12:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The Labor Department reported that producer prices rose 0.2% in July. Excluding food and energy, core producer prices rose 0.3%. Core prices are up 1.5% the the past year.

Last Friday the Labor Department reported that consumer prices rose in July.

The Labor Department's numbers for core prices are real joke. We spend most of our income on basics: food and energy. If you think there is no inflation, look at these numbers:

Continue reading U.S. Producer Prices Rise in July: Who Says There's No Inflation?

U.S. Producer Prices Rise in July: Who Says There's No Inflation? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 17 Aug 2010 10:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Is Inflation Threat on The Horizon?

Is Inflation Threat on The Horizon? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 18 May 2010 18:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The most compelling statistic, so far in 2010, from an investment standpoint? Arguably, it's inflation, or the lack thereof.

More than 12 months in to the biggest fiscal stimulus in the history of the modern world, and more than 15 months into the Fed's quantitative easing program, inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is running at ... about 2.3% since April 2009, according to data compiled by the U.S. Labor Department. Further, take away the volatile food and energy component, and inflation at the retail level is running at a minuscule 1.1% since April 2009.

Continue reading Despite March's PPI Jump, U.S. Inflation Remains Tame

Despite March's PPI Jump, U.S. Inflation Remains Tame originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 22 Apr 2010 12:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Best Buy Inc. (BBY), which was a favorite on Black Friday, announced a partnership with Netflix (NFLX) and another one with Google (GOOG), as well as declared a quarterly dividend, during its fiscal third quarter. For the three months that ended in November, Best Buy is expected to report that earnings rose 18.6% from a year ago to $0.43 per share. Revenue is expected to total $11.9 billion, or 4.2% higher than a year ago. The full-year forecast is for a profit of $2.95 per share (+2.4%) on $48.6 billion (+7.8%) in sales. This Richfield, Minn.-based company has topped earnings estimates in three of the past four quarters, by as much as 21 cents per share.

Best Buy's long-term EPS growth forecast of 12.5% is better than that of Walmart (WMT). Best Buy's earnings multiple is 14x. Analysts, on average, recommend buying BBY and have for more than 90 days; two analysts recently raised their earnings estimates. The mean price target is $44.77. Shares have risen 11.5% in the past three months and recently reached a new 52-week high of $44.50.

Continue reading The week in preview: Best Buy, General Mills, Oracle and more earnings expectations

The week in preview: Best Buy, General Mills, Oracle and more earnings expectations originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 13 Dec 2009 12:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

2008's economy can be divided into two parts. The first is the period between January and July when oil prices ran up to $147 thanks to a speculative trade to short the dollar and buy oil and other commodities. The second part is the post oil's July peak where oil prices have featured a 60% to $55. Today's wholesale price report shows what happens to prices when supply exceeds demand and banks stop lending money to traders trying to profit from anticipated inflation.

Today's wholesale price report is a doozy. The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 2.8% in October -- much more than the 1.8% decline economists had anticipated. The PPI decline was fueled (pun intended) by a 12.8% decline in energy prices in October. And as long as those energy prices keep falling, inflation will be in full downswing mode. (I am happy to report that I won my bet that gasoline would drop below $1.99 a gallon in Eastern Massachusetts by February -- I went to a station Sunday that charged $1.97.)

But there's more to it than simply declining oil prices. The entire economy was producing goods and services based on an assumption about demand that depended on easy access to debt. By shutting off the debt flow, goods are simply too expensive for consumers and businesses to pay the price. This means businesses will cut back on production and slash prices to clear their shelves of inventory. Then they'll shut down factories and lay off workers. And the lower demand from those poorer former workers will start the cycle anew.

Peter Cohan is president of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.

Deflation in full swing originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 18 Nov 2008 09:43:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The Wall Street Journal (subscription required) reports that producer prices launched upward at a 1.2% monthly rate in July. The rise in the PPI -- which was 0.7 percentage points faster than the 0.5% rate economists expected -- was the result of rising wholesale prices for energy spreading to "automobiles, prescription drugs and capital equipment."

Since the price of oil has dropped 24% from $147 to $112, should we all be relieved that July's number is a temporary blip? Let's hope so, because if not, rising wholesale prices make it even harder for businesses to make a profit when consumer demand is weak.

These higher wholesale prices mean that businesses have two options to maintain profits: keep prices the same but cut costs in other areas by finding productivity improvements, cutting back on payrolls and salaries and the likes, or raise prices to offset those rising costs.

Continue reading July producer prices soar at 14.4% annual rate -- highest in 27 years

July producer prices soar at 14.4% annual rate -- highest in 27 years originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 19 Aug 2008 09:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Wholesale inflation soars on surging energy costs

Wholesale inflation soars on surging energy costs originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 15 Jul 2008 09:16:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Producer prices rocket 1.4% higher in May on surging energy costs

Producer prices rocket 1.4% higher in May on surging energy costs originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 17 Jun 2008 09:09:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The April 2008 producer price data indicated that inflation, as measured at the business or wholesale level, is accelerating. But investors and consumers shouldn't be surprised, so says economist David H. Wang.

"It's beginning to look like a re-run of a show we don't want to see, 'That 70s inflation show,' " Wang said. "Oil is increasing inflation throughout the U.S. economy and you can really see it at the producer level."

During the past 12 months, producer prices have increased 6.5% and the core rate has risen 3.0%, according to U.S. Labor Department data released Tuesday. Other producer price index surges occurred in 1974, 1980, and 1991. What do the three have in common? You guessed it. They were periods when the price of oil increased by a large percentage, Wang said. The 1991 event was more of an oil spike, but the other two were the first two oil shocks, in 1973-1974 and 1979-1980, he said.

Oil's current march higher, up 100% in the past 12 months to about $129 per barrel, and up about 480% since 2002, does not qualify as an oil shock just yet, but it's close and getting there, Wang said, and inflation has trended higher in tandem with oil's latest run-up.

Continue reading That '70s inflation show: Surging oil reignites U.S. inflation

That '70s inflation show: Surging oil reignites U.S. inflation originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 20 May 2008 15:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading April U.S. producer prices rise just 0.2%, but core rate jumps

April U.S. producer prices rise just 0.2%, but core rate jumps originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 20 May 2008 09:18:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.