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August PPI decline seen helping Fed keep interest rates low

U.S. investors and consumers haven't received much good news lately, which is why Friday's producer price index report was a welcome sight.

U.S. producer prices fell a seasonally-adjusted 0.9% in August, the U.S Labor Department announced Friday, as lower energy prices provided some hope that inflation at the wholesale level will moderate in the months ahead.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected the August PPI index to fall 0.5%. Producer prices increased 1.2% in July, 1.8% in June, 1.4% in May, and 0.3% in April.

Meanwhile, the core rate, which excludes food and energy costs, increased 0.2%, the Labor Department said, in-line with the Bloomberg News 0.2% consensus estimate.

Economist Peter Dawson told BloggingStocks Friday the August PPI is a pleasant sight for a U.S. market and an economy that's grappling with a series of financial and economic hurdles.

"The report shows a pull-back in energy prices, which is welcome, as it's been the primary culprit in both wholesale and retail inflation," Dawson said. "If wholesale prices continue to trend lower, that will ease pressure businesses face to raise prices to keep pace with costs. Lower oil and gasoline prices will also provide a modest amount of stimulus to the U.S. economy, as it will increase consumer disposable income."

Continue reading August PPI decline seen helping Fed keep interest rates low

March manufacturing index still signaling a contraction; no growth ahead

The ISM Manufacturing Index remains in contraction territory, with the March 2008 reading totaling 48.6, the Institute of Supply Management announced Tuesday.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected the index to fall to 48.0 in March 2008. The ISM Manufacturing Index was 48.3 in February 2008.

An index reading below 50 indicates a contraction and the ISM Manufacturing Index has now registered below 50 in three of the past four months.

Further, the prices paid component jumped to 83.5 in March 2008 from 75.5 in February 2008, indicative of continued cost pressures at the wholesale level. Production declined to 48.7 from 50.7, new orders fell to 46.5 from 49.1, and imports declined to 45.0 from 47.5.

The bright spots? The index's export component rose to 56.5 in March 2008 from 56.0 in February 2008, while the backlog of orders increased to 47.5 from 45.0.

Continue reading March manufacturing index still signaling a contraction; no growth ahead

China says it will keep monetary policy tight in 2008

China will maintain a tight monetary policy, a vice governor for China's central bank, the People's Bank of China, said Monday, China's government-run Xinhua News Agency reported.

"The primary risk to China's economy is inflation and the government will stick to the tight monetary policy," Central Bank Governor Yi Gang said. To soak-up liquidity, the central bank will select an optimal package of currency, interest rate and money-supply measures, Gang said.

Chinese officials have re-focused their efforts on inflation after its surging economy and a series of large snowstorms led to the nation's highest inflation rate in January 2008 -- a 7.1% annualized rate -- since its transition from a centrally-planned to a market-based economy. Earlier, China shifted its monetary policy "from prudent to tight" in 2008 to prevent overheating and a surge in inflation.

China: inflation concerns

Economist David H. Wang told BloggingStocks Monday China's tight monetary policy is warranted, but he expects it to have more of an impact on business-to-business prices, what the United States calls a producer price index or PPI, than on consumer-level inflation.

Continue reading China says it will keep monetary policy tight in 2008

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Last updated: November 12, 2009: 11:03 PM

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