professional timing service posts
FeedPosted Nov 28th 2008 1:45PM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: International markets, Newsletters, Goldcorp Inc (GG), Kinross Gold (KGC), Commodities, Stocks to Buy

"Gold is now looking stronger; it is time that investors have gold in their portfolios," says Curtis Hesler. In the The Professional Timing Service, he looks at gold's seasonal patterns.
"I think they will rush to commodity-based assets because of the serious underinvestment phase the commodity sector is involved in now. This will lead to shortages and very high prices down the road in all commodities.
"Once the dollar begins to roll over, gold will be an instant benefactor. It is already looking stronger in my technical work, and it is time that investors should have gold in their portfolios. I still recommend that you put new money into the major gold miners only.
"We are approaching an interesting seasonal period for gold. Years ago, the Stock Trader's Almanac used to specify a seasonal trade in gold.
"Their study showed that if you bought ASA Ltd. (NYSE: ASA) at its low in November and sold it at its high in the first quarter of the next year, you would have averaged a gain of 87.8%.
Continue reading Thanksgiving pattern: A seasonal low for gold?
Posted Aug 15th 2008 10:00AM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: Newsletters, Yamana Gold (AUY), Goldcorp Inc (GG), Kinross Gold (KGC), Commodities, Stocks to Buy
When gold was trading above $1,000 an ounce, Curtis Hesler reversed his buy signal and fortuitously warned of a seasonal pullback expected over the summer.
In his The Professional Timing Service, he stated, "Gold should settle into the cyclical and seasonal lows due in early August. Although you will hear plenty of bearish arguments as gold prices pull back, weakness will be a buying opportunity."
He now explains, "I don't think there is much left on downside for the mining shares. We will likely see the miners firm up and begin to rally before the bullion. My adice is to hold tight and exploit the fear.
"This weakness presents a final opportunity before the late summer and early fall strength returns to precious metals. The coast is clearing for gold to advance to new highs by October when its next seasonal high is due.
"Longer-term, I can't help but wonder if gold isn't anticipating the next break in the dollar. We all should be thinking about the trillions of dollars in U.S. government unfunded liabilities for Medicare, Social Security, pensions, etc. There's going to be a tsunami of dollars printed to cover all of that.
"At the top of my buy list is Kinross (NYSE: KGC). Yamana (NYSE: AUY) is an excellent diversification in the precious metals sector. Also among my favorites is Goldcorp (NYSE: GG)."
Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers the latest market commentary and favorite investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.
Posted Jul 17th 2008 12:30PM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: Newsletters, Valero Energy (VLO), Commodities, Oil, Stocks to Buy
"The 'low-hanging fruit' on our buy list includes refiners," says resource expert Curtis Hesler in The Professional Timing Service. Here, he looks at Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO).
"Refiners enjoy a virtual monopoly. The high price of crude has put the squeeze on profit margins -- especially in the case of gasoline, even though it is selling for over $4.00 now. Gasoline always becomes a political issue during election season.
"Nevertheless, gasoline prices are generally rising. The stock market is also getting 'depression minded,' to the point of paranoia; and this fear is dragging some stocks like refiners lower with the tide.
"The current profit squeeze will not be permanent, but Valero has another arrow in its quiver. They are able to process sour crude, which is becoming more prevalent as exporters keep more of the good stuff (light sweet crude) at home and ship the heavy sour crude.
Continue reading Resource expert votes for Valero (VLO)
Posted Apr 16th 2008 11:07AM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: Newsletters, Mutual funds, Personal finance, Stocks to Buy
"In a new paradigm where risk will become a paranoid obsession with investors, a few TIPS make sense for income," says long-standing advisory industry expert Curtis Hesler.
In his The Professional Timing Service, he highlights the role of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities within a long-term portfolio and reviews two ways for investors to purchases these issues.
"You can buy them in your Treasury Direct account. If you don't have a Treasury Direct account, you can open one at www.treasurydirect.gov. The problem is that so far, you can't open a retirement account - only an individual account. Go to the Treasury Direct Web site and bone up on all the details, especially if you are going to buy them online.
"TIPS work this way. They are U.S. government bonds issued by the Treasury. They are marketable in that you can sell them in the 'after' market. They come in terms of 5, 10, and 20 years. The interest rate on an issue is determined at auction, and they are sold in increments of $1,000.
Continue reading Inflation protection: Tips on TIPS
Posted Feb 27th 2008 8:15AM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: Newsletters, Commodities, Oil, Stocks to Buy
Resource expert Curtis Hesler suggests Baker Hughes (NYSE: BHI) is an "excellent company that is on a strong growth path." In his Professional Timing Service he explains, "Everyone in the world is going to be scrambling to drill for oil, regardless of the U.S. economy.
"My futures work on crude is interesting here as we are about to leave the seasonal weak period and enter seasonal strength. My futures model has been on the sidelines in crude; but on February 11, it issued a buy at 92.72, March basis.
"It is all but impossible to drill for oil without Baker Hughes. Regardless of whether you think a recession has begun in the U.S., the truth is, there is a whole lot of drilling going on around the world. That trend will continue.
"Most recently, Kuwait announced they will be spending $51 billion over the next five years to upgrade their energy sector. They are going to be drilling a lot of wells. All of the other producing nations are going to do the same, and for one essential reason. They are all seeing their production levels beginning to decline.
"Due to a weak overall stock market and a 'disappointing fourth quarter earnings report,' Baker Hughes' price had been pushed back to solid long term support just under $65.00.
"This time, Baker reported $1.26 a share for the quarter while the analysts were looking for $1.28. Personally, I was not disappointed at all. The quarter's earnings were up a hefty 23%. If they do that every quarter, I am not going to worry about a two-cent disagreement between a bunch of pencil pushers.
"The stock's RSI and MACD patterns are deeply oversold now, and there have been very nice moves following readings in this area in the past. Come next fall, I think you will rue not having put a few bucks in Baker when the time was right. Today's bargains are in energy."
Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers the latest market commentary and favorite investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.
Posted Jan 29th 2008 10:59AM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: International markets, Newsletters, Commodities, Stocks to Buy
"Within a diversified portfolio of resource stocks, I like to have some small bets on the little guys," says Curtis Hesler, a noted authority on natural resource investing and the editor of The Professional Timing Service.
"Some of the smaller and, admittedly, more speculative exploration companies did not follow the mining sector during the August-November rally. This is not unprecedented.
"This failure to 'join the party' reminds one of what happened in 2005 when the lower tier gold miners failed to participate (some crashed severely) while the majors were strong. Most of them more than made up for it during 2006 when the mining stocks surged again.
"Everyone has a different financial circumstance, so you will have to decide what a prudent wager on these will be for you individually. There is risk here, but the juniors certainly do beat buying call options, and they do apppear to be poised for superior performance in 2008.
"Currently, I favor Taseko (ASE: TGB) and Great Basin Gold (ASE: GBN). They are our most recent lower tier recommendations They are buys at $4.50 and $2.45, respectively.
Continue reading Big potential from junior miners?
Posted Dec 25th 2007 9:15AM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: Newsletters, Commodities, Stocks to Buy, Best Stocks for 2008
For 25 years, Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, has surveyed the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is one of 100+ ideas in the Best Stocks for 2008 report.
"Everyone should have some gold, but it is an individual decision as to what best fits one's risk tolerance and personal financial makeup," says resources expert Curtis Hesler, editor of Professional Timing Service.
"Bullion in some form, be it bullion coins or bullion ETF's like StreetTracks Gold ETF (NYSE: GLD), should be fitted into one's portfolio -- for diversification, if no other reason. I would consider this a top speculative idea for 2008.
"However, be mindful that bullion profits, even in the ETF form, are taxed at a higher rate than gold-mining stocks. So, bullion ETF's are perhaps best held in a tax-sheltered account, but that is an individual call."
Posted Dec 18th 2007 10:30AM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: Newsletters, Commodities, Oil, Stocks to Buy
For 25 years, Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, has surveyed the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is one of 100+ ideas in the Best Stocks for 2008 report.
"My favorite conservative idea for 2008 is Transocean (NYSE: RIG)," says resources expert Curtis Hesler, editor of Professional Timing Service.
"Long after the last field is discovered -- and probably after the last oil well runs dry -- treasure hunters will continue to drill for oil. The best potential will be offshore.
"Transocean, the world's foremost deep water driller, recently merged with Global Santa Fe, the world's principal shallow water driller. The combination resulted in a new company retaining the name Transocean.
"With crude oil hitting new highs, rig rental rates will continue to skyrocket in a market with a chronic shortage of rigs to hire. Additionally, there are simply some drilling jobs -- especially offshore -- that no one else is qualified to tackle.
"The new Transocean is unique. It is in a business with virtually no ease of entry, and it is on a strong growth path. If I were to buy one stock without regard to price for a long-term portfolio, it would be Transocean. It is now THE powerhouse in offshore drilling."
Posted Oct 20th 2007 2:20PM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: Newsletters, Commodities, Oil, Stocks to Buy
"The commodity bull is awakening," says Curtis Hesler, editor of the Professional Timing Service. The advisor, who focuses on long-term market cycles, explains, "We have been through a long stretch where everything, including gold mining stocks and oil issues, have gone up and down in tandem with the movements in the popular averages (Nasdaq, Dow, S&P 500, etc.).
"We are going to enter a phase now and through 2008 where this will no longer be the case. Next year looks like it will be a very profitable year for commodity-related (real asset) issues, but dismal for financial (paper) assets.
"I am looking for $100.00 crude oil (as well as a move to $850 in gold). This should be the basis for your strategy. The commodity bull will thrive in 2008 at the expense of the general market, and the weak dollar will be no small reason for this.
Continue reading Best energy ideas: Two votes for Nordic American Tanker (NAT)
Posted Jun 3rd 2007 11:31AM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: Newsletters, Commodities
For a high-risk speculation in the mining sector, Curtis Hesler poses the hypothetical situation: "Suppose one just received a windfall of money and were willing to throw all caution to the winds; what looks good here?"
In his The Professional Timing Service, the usually conservative and disciplined advisor looks at his more speculative mining ideas for a current favorites for high-risk and high-reward potential.
He says, "In looking over our buy-and-hold list and our list of junior 'option alternative' recommendations, one stock that has been weak is Coeur d'Alene Mines" (NYSE: CDE).
He points out that the company is the largest U.S. silver producer, but that it had matured to the point that their reserves were decreasing and their future growth prospects were not bright.
Recently, though, he says, they announced a deal to buy out Bolnisi Gold and Palmarejo Silver and Gold Corporation. Says Hesler, "This is a big deal. It involves a stock swap and some cash, and the net effect will be to double the number of Coeur d'Alene shares outstanding."
However, he says, if the deal goes through, it will put CDE "back on a growth path." He notes that the prime asset in the acquisition is the Palmarejo Project in Mexico.
Continue reading Couer d'Alene: Silver speculation
Posted Apr 24th 2007 10:35AM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: China, Newsletters, Yamana Gold (AUY)
Curtis Hesler, editor of The Professional Timing Service, believes that the recently announced Chinese investment fund will have a significant impact on commodities. The fund, he explains, was developed in order for China to diversify its reserves.
He notes, "The great Chinese reserve fund has now been established, and it is a whopper; they have announced that they will hold $650 billion of their reserves at ready.
Further, he adds, "They will also invest $200 billion to $250 billion a year that they expect to receive hereafter. That is a lot of money!"
So, what will they buy? According to Hesler, "They will certainly spend a lion's share on raw materials and other commodities."
The advisor forecasts, "This money will likely be the engine that will fuel the next major leg in the commodity bull market. China has every intention of being a significant player on the global scene; and to do that, they will need to increase their gold reserves."
Already bullish on gold, the development of the China investment fund for its reserves is an added demand factor supporting his optimistic stance. He notes that some resource experts are estimating that China will need to accumulate 2,000 to 3,000 tons of gold toward this goal.
Among junior gold mining stocks, Hesler owns Gammon Lake (ASE: GRS) and Yamana (NYSE: AUY). Another "solid core metal investment" he adds is Gabelli Global Natural Resources (ASE: GGN), which he points out has a decent dividend and as a closed-end fund, offers a broad-based investment in metals.
As a long-term investor, Hesler argues for patience and suggests that investors should accumulate positions during periods of price weakness. Long-term, however, he says, "I firmly expect to see gold eventually hit $1,600. That will put the mining stocks through the roof."
For more stock picks from the leading financial newsletter advisors, visit Steven Halpern's free daily website, TheStockAdvisors.com.
Posted Mar 14th 2007 12:38PM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: Newsletters, Yamana Gold (AUY)
An estimated 85% of financial success is being invested in the correct asset class, estimates Curtis Hesler, who is confident that the correct asset class for investors today is hard assets.
The editor of The Professional Timing Service uses several proprietary models to determine whether one should be in financial assets or real assets. One of these models is his Annual Asset Allocation Model.
He explains, "Its advice is simple as it will only point us in one of two directions -- financial (paper) assets or real (tangible) assets. The purpose of the model is to tell us which of these two assets offers the best potential reward for the lowest risk."
In recent months, the model has pointed toward real assets, suggesting that the risk of holding paper assets has been high. Hesler notes, "Although trading profits can be had in stocks, financial assets under these circumstances can turn very bad, very quickly -- as the recent market debacle illustrated."
Continue reading Gold: Hesler's 'quintessential hard asset'
Posted Dec 27th 2006 8:30AM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: Newsletters, Yamana Gold (AUY), ETF Investing
Each year Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, surveys the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is part of his 24th annual Top Picks Report.
Yamana Gold (ASE: AUY) is a favorite speculative pick for 2007 from Curtis Hesler, editor of The Professional Timing Service.
He explains, "I believe that gold made a significant breakout in early December, officially ending the correction begun in May. The correction resulted in a triangle formation with the lows all about $560 and the highs successively lower.
"The last time gold formed a triangle like the recent May to November pattern was in 1979. When prices broke out of the triangle pattern in the fall of 1979, gold went straight from $400 to about $875 by January 1980. We are likely setting up for a similar run now, and the dollar is confirming this.
"A doubling of today's price does not require a stretch of the imagination. The gold-to-oil ratio is currently about 10, but it is rising. If it hits the long term average of 16, gold would be $1,000 with crude at $63. If crude were to go back over $70, and the ratio were 16 the price of gold would be $1,120.
Continue reading Top Picks 2007: Curtis Hesler mines for gold at Yamana