First off, who are Duke Energy (DUK) and Progress Energy (PGN), and why are they merging? Both are located in North Carolina. Both operate fleets of fossil fuel and nuclear power plants. The merger will give them the boost needed to expand their nuclear power stations outside North Carolina. So the partners decided that bigger is better.

The Wall Street Journal (subscription required) reports that it's an all stock merger valued at about $13.7 billion. Under the deal Duke will exchange 2.6125 of its shares for each Progress share. Based on Duke's closing price on Friday, Progress shareholders would receive $46.48 a share, a 3.9% premium. Progress closed at $44.72 Friday. Duke will also assume $12.2 billion in debt. Duke plans to effect a reverse stock split immediately after the close.

Option traders appear to be setting up for a bullish move on Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO). Traders plowed into 2,601 new call option contracts -- 20.81 times the average volume -- on the stock on Wednesday. And we know that traders were eager to get into this trade because 89% of the trades came in on the ask price.

The ETF closed Wednesday at $45.60, up 4.35% during the past month.

Analyst Upgrades

• Wells Fargo upgraded Norfolk Southern (NSC) to outperform from market perform following the company's Q1 results.
• RBC Capital transferred coverage on Gildan Activewear (GIL) with an outperform from sector perform. The firm is positive on Gildan's low-cost producer strategy and free cash flow generation. The firm raised its target to $35 from $26.
• Wunderlich upgraded Delphi Financial (DFG) to buy from hold following the company's Q1 results and raised its target for shares to $31 from $29.
• Aflac (AFL) was upgraded to buy from neutral at Sterne Agee.
• Time Warner (TWX) was upgraded to outperform from neutral at Cowen.
• Pride International (PDE) was upgraded to outperform from neutral at Credit Suisse.

"Dozens of companies in the S&P 500 Index cut their dividends in 2009, equating to $52 billion in lost dividend income; added up, last year was the worst year on record for dividend cuts," says income specialist Carla Pasternak.

The editor of High Yield Investing explains, "But now that a recovery has taken hold, dividend increases are back on the rise -- payments among S&P 500 companies are expected to increase +5.6% this year. To celebrate this good news, I've decided to help you track down what I believe is the safest dividend in the S&P.

While other earnings may have disappointed last week, the news was good for oil giant ConocoPhilips (NYSE: COP). In what some took as a good sign for big oil, the Houston-based company reported that third quarter net income surged 41% year over year to $3.39 per share, and that revenue also surged 52% to $70 billion. We'll see whether the good news extends to other petroleum giants scheduled to report quarterly results this week.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial are looking for BP (NYSE: BP) profits to have grown 43.2% in the most recent quarter to $2.34 per share on revenue of $109.7 billion, and Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) to post earnings up 39.4% to $3.25 per share on revenue of $86.8 billion. Marathon Oil Corp. (NYSE: MRO), ExxonMobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM), and Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS.A) likewise are expected to report higher net income of $2.33 per share (sales of $23.4 billion), $2.40 per share (sales of $131.4 billion), and $2.65 per share, respectively. Even Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO) is expected to post earnings slightly higher to $1.46 per share (sales of $36.4 billion), despite the effects of Hurricane Ike. Among these companies, only BP and Valero beat earnings expectations in the previous quarter. Not surprisingly, analysts on average recommend buying all except Valero, and shares of all of these companies have recently hit 52-week lows.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Progress Energy Inc (PGN), Mattel inc (MAT), Career Education Corp and (CECO) were some of today's notable upgrades:

• JP Morgan upgraded shares of Progress Energy Inc (NYSE: PGN) to Neutral from Underweight citing the company's improving earnings profile.

• Lehman upgraded shares of Mattel Inc (NYSE: MAT) to Equal Weight from Underweight with a $26 target, citing increased traction at retail stores for Barbie as well as expectations for 10% earnings growth.

• Career Education Corp (NASDAQ: CECO) was upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Credit Suisse as they believe general start growth will bottom in 4Q/1Q and that its University division will return to positive start growth in 3Q07.

OTHER UPGRADES:

• Pacific Growth upgraded shares of Marvell Technology Group ltd (NASDAQ: MRVL) to Buy from Neutral to reflect the aggressive transfer of the Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) cell phone foundry business.

• Both Soleil Securities and Bank of America upgraded Warner Music Group Corp (NYSE: WMG) to Buy from Hold with a $23 target in order to reflect the company's improved fundamentals; they believe Warner's balance sheet restructuring bodes well for earnings.

• Merrill Lynch upgraded JetBlue Airways Corp (NASDAQ: JBLU) to Buy from Neutral on valuation.

• Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc (NYSE: DO) was added to Goldman Sachs' Conviction Buy List.

• CIBC upgraded Wells Fargo & Co (NYSE: WFC) to Sector Outperformer from Sector Performer, citing valuation and the $8 billion in excess capital in the coffers.

• Wachovia upgraded Fossil, Inc (NASDAQ: FOSL) to Outperform from Market Perform.

• HSBC upgraded Sony Corp (NYSE: SNE) to Neutral from Underweight.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).