MOST NOTEWORTHY: Progressive, Netflix and Public Service Enterprise Group were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Wachovia upgraded Progressive (NYSE: PGR) to Market Perform from Underperform based on modest signs of improvement in underwriting trends.
Lehman upgraded Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) to Overweight from Equal Weight based on strong core trends and a potential announcement of digital service partners into its May 28 investor day.
Credit Suisse upgraded Public Service Enterprise Group (NYSE: PEG) to Outperform from Neutral based on earnings growth through utility investment, valuation, upside from U.S. CO2 policy.
OTHER UPGRADES:
Precision Drilling (NYSE: PDS) was raised to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital.
Hertz Global (NYSE: HTZ) was upgraded at Soleil to Buy from Hold.
Calyon upgraded Foundation Coal (NYSE: FCL) and Arch Coal (ACI) to Add from Neutral.
Progressive Corp. (NYSE: PGR) shares are trading higher after the company announced this morning its first quarter profit dropped 34% to $239.4 million, hurt by lower premiums. However, PGR posted earnings of 35 cents per share, exceeding analysts' estimates for a quarterly profit 29 cents per share. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on PGR.
After hitting a one-year high of $25.16 in June, the stock hit a one-year low of $15.00 in March. PGR opened this morning at $16.70. So far today the stock has hit a low of $16.70 and a high of $17.39. As of 12:25, PGR is trading at $17.25, up $0.65 (3.9%). The chart for PGR looks bearish and steady while S&P gives PGR a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an August bull-put credit spread below the $15 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 16.3% return in just four months as long as PGR is above $15 at August expiration. Progressive would have to fall by more than 27% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
I'm placing this blog post squarely at the feet of George Soros. The first reason I'm doing that is because I can. The second reason I'm doing it is because Mr. Soros will never read it. The third reason is because I have the ability to understand insurance actuary tables and I can read the writing on the wall.
Is anyone out there willing to take a guess at exactly why George Soros, Progressive Insurance (NYSE: PGR), and most of the rest of the auto insurance industry is so highly motivated to promote the green movement? Do you think it's because they want more trees available for the little birdies to sing in? Is it because someone said we're running a couple quarts low on oil? Could it be that they fear "green house gases" will soon choke us all? Nope, it's about none of those things. It all comes down to percentages, money, and control.
According to the Wall Street Journal's "Heard on the Street" column, Progressive Corporation (NYSE: PGR) is struggling due to competitors' pricing, safer cars, and a struggling economy, to name a few factors.
The Financial Times reported that General Electric Company (NYSE: GE) will decide whether to sell its 80% stake in NBC Universal after the Beijing Olympics in August 2008, according to sources.
Tenaris (NYSE: TS), the maker of steel pipes for oil and gas exploration, has ruled out any possible sale of itself to ArcelorMittal (NYSE: MT) , the world's biggest steel producer, reported the Financial Times.
OTHER PAPERS:
The New York Post reported that UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) has fired David Martin, its head of interest-rate trading, and James Stehli, the head of its collateralized debt obligation unit, due to the fallout from the mortgage meltdown.
BP PLC (NYSE: BP) CEO Tony Hayward will today unveil plans to reduce bureaucracy and duplication of management at the oil giant, reported the Telegraph.
Business Objects (NASDAQ: BOBJ) was downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Baird following its acquisition by SAP AG (NYSE: SAP).
Wachovia downgraded Allstate Corporation (NYSE: ALL) to Market Perform from Outperform and P&C Insurance (NYSE: PGR) citing deteriorating fundamentals in personal lines.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
UBS downgraded BEA Systems (NASDAQ: BEAS) to Neutral from Buy.
JP Morgan downgraded Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) to Neutral from Outperform.
Sealy Corporation (NYSE: ZZ) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Banc of America.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Anheuser-Busch (BUD), Imax Corp (IMAX), Amgen (AMGN), Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) and TiVO (TIVO) were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Citigroup upgraded shares of Anheuser-Busch (NYSE: BUD) to Hold from Sell as they see a 70% chance of an alliance between Anheuser-Busch and InBev in the next two years; they believe such a merger would create a market leader.
Merriman upgraded IMAX Corp (NASDAQ: IMAX) to Buy from Neutral after IMAX removed its overhang by completing SEC filings, while fundamentals have remained strong.
Citigroup upgraded Amgen (NASDAQ: AMGN) to Hold from Sell to reflect the potential for CMS to roll back proposed reimbursement cuts in oncology, an improving risk/reward profile and the potential for positive phase 3 denosumab data by year-end.
Kaufman upgraded TiVO (NASDAQ: TIVO) to Buy from Sell as indicators of the change in its business model suggest a positive transaction. The firm feels the the EchoStar (DISH) litigation provides an attractive risk/reward potential, creating an attractive entry point...
OTHER UPGRADES:
Aflac (NYSE: AFL) was upgraded at Lehman to Overweight from Underweight.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Tompkins plc (TKS), Commerce Bancorp (CBH), Tribune Co (TRB) and Progressive Gaming International Corp (PGIC) were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Merrill Lynch upgraded shares of Tompkins plc (NYSE: TKS) to Neutral from Sell on valuation as they believe the company's exposure to the weak U.S. residential and automotive markets is priced into shares.
RBC Capital raised Commerce Bancorp (NYSE: CBH) to Sector performer from Underperformer. They view the terms of the consent order as a positive and believe the company will now consider a sale given the resignation of CEO Vernon Hill. Keefe Bruyette also upgraded shares of Commerce to Market Perform from Underperform.
Deutsche Bank upgraded Tribune Co (NYSE: TRB) to Buy from Hold as they believe the going-private transaction will be completed.
ThinkEquity upgraded Progressive Gaming (NASDAQ: PGIC) to Buy from Accumulate following a recent trip to Macau and marketing meetings with management that reinforced their confidence in the company's long-term viability and strong market positioning...
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Continental Airlines, Inc (CAL), Molson Coors Brewing Co (TAP), Watsco, Inc (WSO), K-V Pharmaceutical Co (KV.A), Progressive Corp (PGR) and Color Kinetics (CLRK) were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Goldman downgraded shares of Continental Airlines, Inc (NYSE: CAL) to Neutral from Buy on valuation, higher oil prices and a weak domestic market.
Goldman also downgraded Molson Coors Brewing Co (NYSE: TAP) to Neutral from Buy based on the increase in analyst estimates, valuation and the potential for margin pressure in the summer.
BB&T cut Watsco, Inc (NYSE: WSO) to Hold from Buy based on valuation and catalysts that are already reflected in the share price.
Roth Capital downgraded shares of K-V Pharmaceutical Co (NYSE: KV.A) to Hold from Buy, telling clients they have learned that Par Pharmaceuticals Cos (PRX) has launched generics of 50, 100 and 200mg Toprol-XL. The firm expects a material impact to KV's 100 and 200mg strength generics.
Stifel expects investor enthusiasm regarding Progressive's Corp (NYSE: PGR) recapitalization plan to fade as underwriting fundamentals deteriorate and cut shares to Sell from Hold.
Color Kinetics (NASDAQ: CLRK) was downgraded to Hold from Sell at Needham on valuation...
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Best Buy Co, Inc (BBY), Amazon.com, Inc (AMZN), aQuantive, Inc (AQNT) and AT&T (T) were today's most notable upgrades:
Goldman upgraded shares of Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) to Buy from Neutral, telling customers valuation is discounting an earnings miss and reflects concerns about the company's capital allocation. The firm expects BBY to meet recent guidance and current Street estimates.
Deutsche bank upgraded shares of Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) to Buy from Hold, citing expectations for operating margin improvement near-term and added growth and margin expansion longer-term from Web Services initiatives.
JP Morgan upgraded shares of aQuantive (NASDAQ: AQNT) to Outperform from Neutral, citing valuation and stronger fundamentals as the firm expects Google's (GOOG) acquisition of DoubleClick to result in stable pricing during the integration process. aQuantive was also upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBSW and to Sector Outperformer from Sector Performer at CIBC.
AT&T Inc (NYSE: T) was upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital, as the firm believes shares have stronger growth prospects compared to the group based on wirelines cost cutting, churn and margin improvements at Cingular.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Vonage Holdings Corp (VG), Boston Scientific Corp (BSX), Sunoco, Inc (SUN) and CV Therapeutics, Inc (CVTX) were some of today's more notable downgrades:
Vonage Holdings Corp (NYSEL VG) was downgraded to Underperform from Peer Perform at Bear Stearns following the court injunction barring Vonage from using Verizon Communications' (VZ) patented technology.
Boston Scientific Corp (NYSE: BSX) was cut to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO. Cowen removed Boston Scientific from its Focus List citing superior clinical results from Abbott Laboratories' (ABT) drug-eluting stent, Xience V.
Deutsche Bank downgraded Sunoco (NYSE: SUN) to Hold from Buy with a $72 target on valuation.
CV Therapeutics (NASDAQ: CVTX) was downgraded at Deutsche Bank, to Sell from Hold with a $2 target. The downgrade was ahead of the full Ranexa Merlin PIII data to be presented at the American College of Cardiology on Tuesday, March 27th, as the firm believes it will fall short of generating sufficient positive data trends for supporting Ranexa's outlook.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
DaimlerChrysler (NYSE: DCX) was removed from JP Morgan's Focus List as the firm believes the potential divestiture of Chrysler is at least partially priced into shares; JP Morgan maintains an Overweight rating on the stock.
Morgan Stanley cut Progressive Corp (NYSE: PGR) to Underweight from Equal-Weight.
William Blair downgraded Kronos Inc (NASDAQ: KRON) to Market Perform from Outperform following the company's acquisition.
Bank of America downgraded Paxar Corp (NYSE: PXR) to Neutral from Buy on news of Avery Dennison Corp's (AVY) acquisition of the company.
Deutsche Bank cut Tesoro Corp (NYSE: TSO) to Sell from Hold with an $85 target.
Goldman Sachs cut Volvo (NASDAQ: VOLV) to Neutral from Buy on valuation.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: EMC Corp (EMC), Network Appliance, Inc (NTAP), ImClone Systems Inc (IMCL) and International Game Technology (IGT) were some of today's more notable upgrades:
JP Morgan upgraded EMC Corp (NYSE: EMC) to Overweight from Neutral as the firm believes improved momentum in the second-half of 2007 will drive shares higher.
Network Appliance (NASDAQ: NTAP) was also upgraded by JP Morgan, to Overweight from Neutral, as the firm believes storage will experience improving secular trends this year.
Citigroup upgraded ImClone (NASDAQ: IMCL) to Hold from Sell and raised their target to $40 from $26 due to lower competitive threats from Amgen Inc's (AMGN) Vectibix.
Prudential raised International Game Technology's (NYSE: IGT) rating to Neutral from Underweight, citing valuation.
OTHER UPGRADES:
Goldman Sachs upgraded DreamWorks Animation SKG, Inc (NYSE: : DWA) to Buy from Neutral with a $36 target and added DWA to their Americas Investment Buy List. Goldman believes the company's new films should drive a higher valuation.
Wachovia upgraded Urban Outfitters, Inc (NASDAQ: URBN) to Outperform from Market Perform after a meeting with management as they believe a turnaround is well in progress.
Wachovia upgraded Northrop Grumman Corp (NYSE: NOC) to Market Perform from Underperform on valuation.
AG Edwards upgraded Western Union Co (NYSE: WU) to Buy from Hold with a $36 target.
Friedman, Billings, Ramsey upgraded shares of Progressive Corp (NYSE: PGR) to Market Perform from Underperform on valuation.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Campbell Soup Company (CPB) and Wyerhaeuser Company (WY) topped today's modest-sized list of downgrades:
Goldman Sachs downgraded Campbell Soup Co (NYSE: CPB) to Sell from Neutral with a $40 target and added the company to its America's Sell List as they see minimal upside over the next year.
UBS cut Wyerhaeuser Co (NYSE: WY) to Reduce from Neutral on valuation.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Cooper Tire & Rubber Company (NYSE: CTB) was downgraded at Deutsche Bank to Hold from Buy on valuation.
Progressive Gaming International Corp (NASDAQ: PGIC) was cut to Accumulate from Buy at ThinkEquity.
Lazard downgraded Insmed Inc (NASDAQ: INSM) to Hold from Buy following the litigation settlement with Tercica, Inc (NASDAQ: TRCA) as they see a lack of revenues for the next 2-3 years
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Apple Inc (AAPL) and Lam Research (LRCX) were today's most notable downgrades:
Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) was downgraded by two firms today:
JP Morgan downgraded Apple Inc to Neutral from Overweight as they believe outperformance will be difficult given the Mac shipment miss in the first quarter; the broker also noted they have had an Overweight rating since October 2004 and the stock has appreciated strongly in that time.
JMP Securities also downgraded shares of Apple to Outperform from Strong Buy, citing valuation.
Lam Research (NASDAQ: LRCX) was downgraded by both Bear Stearns and CIBC:
Bear Stearns downgraded Lam Research to Peer Perform from Outperform to reflect shipment delays in the quarter, as they believe delays typically serve as a good leading indicator for deteriorating environments.
CIBC downgraded Lam Research to Sector Performer from Outperformer, with a $46 target. CIBC said management's 2007 outlook confirmed their 2007 thesis for a 10%-20% stock correction based on a retrenchment in DRAM orders.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Merrill Lynch downgraded shares of Sovereign Bancorp (NYSE: SOV) to Sell from Neutral, with a$21 target, after the company named Joe Campanelli its permanent CEO. Merrill believes Sovereign now has a reduced chance of a takeover to go along with deteriorating fundamentals.
Goldman Sachs downgraded Progressive Corp (NYSE: PGR) to Sell from Neutral.
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MOST NOTEWORTHY: Progressive, Netflix and Public Service Enterprise Group were today's noteworthy upgrades:
I'm placing this blog post squarely at the feet of George Soros. The first reason I'm doing that is because I can. The second reason I'm doing it is because Mr. Soros will never read it. The third reason is because I have the ability to understand insurance actuary tables and I can read the writing on the wall.
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