The second half of the calendar year has begun, and earnings return to the spotlight this week. As usual, Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) is among the first of the S&P 500 to report quarterly results. For the second quarter in which Alcoa agreed to sell its wire harness and electrical distribution business and its fastening systems business expanded into Morocco, analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect the New York-based aluminum producer to report swinging to a net loss of $0.34 per share from a profit of $0.66 per share in the year-ago period. Second quarter revenue is expected to have fallen 48.3% to $3.9 billion. The full-year forecast is currently for a loss of $1.04 per share and revenue of $16.7 billion (-38.0%). Alcoa has missed expectations in the past three quarters, by as much as 17 cents per share. The long-term EPS growth forecast is 10.0%, which is better than the sector average. Alcoa slashed its dividend earlier this year, and the First Call consensus recommendation remains to hold AA. However, TheStreet.com recommends it as an against-the-grain pick. At $9.86, shares are down 12.4% since the beginning of the year, and recently have been bumping up against the 200-day moving average.

Progressive (NYSE: PGR) an auto insurance company, closed at $14.50. PGR July option implied volatility is at 49, August is at 44; below its 26-week average of 60; according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Willis Group (NYSE: WSH) a brokerage and risk management company, closed at $25.66. WSH July and August option implied volatility of 44 is below its 26-week average of 54, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing movement.

Marsh & McLennan (NYSE: MMC) closed at $20.39. MMC July option implied volatility is at 32, August is at 36; below its 26-week average of 47 according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

MOST NOTEWORTHY:

• Wachovia upgraded Progressive (NYSE: PGR) to Market Perform from Underperform based on modest signs of improvement in underwriting trends.
  
• Lehman upgraded Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) to Overweight from Equal Weight based on strong core trends and a potential announcement of digital service partners into its May 28 investor day.
  
• Credit Suisse upgraded Public Service Enterprise Group (NYSE: PEG) to Outperform from Neutral based on earnings growth through utility investment, valuation, upside from U.S. CO2 policy.

• Precision Drilling (NYSE: PDS) was raised to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital.
  
• Hertz Global (NYSE: HTZ) was upgraded at Soleil to Buy from Hold.
  
• Calyon upgraded Foundation Coal (NYSE: FCL) and Arch Coal (ACI) to Add from Neutral.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Acuity Brands Inc. (NYSE: AYI) beat second-quarter estimates on increased productivity and new products.
• Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD) cut its outlook and announced job cuts.
• Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) missed first-quarter earnings estimates but beat revenue expectations.
• Circuit City Stores Inc. (NYSE: CC) surprised Wall Street by posting a second-quarter profit.
• Dell Inc.'s (NASDAQ: DELL) rosy 2008 forecast is based on cost cuts, overseas growth, share buybacks.
• DuPont & Co. (NYSE: DD) raised its first-quarter outlook on strength in agriculture and emerging markets.
• Eastman Chemical Co. (NYSE: EMN) raised its first-quarter guidance on strong sales and higher prices.
• EXFO Electro-Optical Engineering (NASDAQ: EXFO) beat estimates and announced an acquisition.
• Foundry Networks Inc. (NASDAQ: FDRY) slashed its first-quarter outlook, blaming the weak economy.
• Genentech Inc. (NYSE: DNA) beat first-quarter earnings estimates, but not revenue expectations.
• General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) missed earnings expectations and lowered its guidance.
• Novellus Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: NVLS) trimmed its first-quarter earnings and revenue forecasts.
• Progressive Corp. (NYSE: PGR) beat estimates though first-quarter profits fell due to lower premiums.
• Rite Aid Corp. (NYSE: RAD) swung to a loss in the fourth quarter on acquisition costs and a tax charge.

Progressive Corp. (NYSE: PGR) shares are trading higher after the company announced this morning its first quarter profit dropped 34% to $239.4 million, hurt by lower premiums. However, PGR posted earnings of 35 cents per share, exceeding analysts' estimates for a quarterly profit 29 cents per share. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on PGR.

After hitting a one-year high of $25.16 in June, the stock hit a one-year low of $15.00 in March. PGR opened this morning at $16.70. So far today the stock has hit a low of $16.70 and a high of $17.39. As of 12:25, PGR is trading at $17.25, up $0.65 (3.9%). The chart for PGR looks bearish and steady while S&P gives PGR a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an August bull-put credit spread below the $15 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 16.3% return in just four months as long as PGR is above $15 at August expiration. Progressive would have to fall by more than 27% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

• Madonna, the original material girl, is signing a 10-year $120M deal with concert promoter Live Nation (NYSE: LYV), leaving Warner Music Group (NYSE: WMG) in her wake, reported the Wall Street Journal.
• According to the Wall Street Journal's "Heard on the Street" column, Progressive Corporation (NYSE: PGR) is struggling due to competitors' pricing, safer cars, and a struggling economy, to name a few factors.
• The Financial Times reported that General Electric Company (NYSE: GE) will decide whether to sell its 80% stake in NBC Universal after the Beijing Olympics in August 2008, according to sources.
• Tenaris (NYSE: TS), the maker of steel pipes for oil and gas exploration, has ruled out any possible sale of itself to ArcelorMittal (NYSE: MT) , the world's biggest steel producer, reported the Financial Times.

• The New York Post reported that UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) has fired David Martin, its head of interest-rate trading, and James Stehli, the head of its collateralized debt obligation unit, due to the fallout from the mortgage meltdown.
• BP PLC (NYSE: BP) CEO Tony Hayward will today unveil plans to reduce bureaucracy and duplication of management at the oil giant, reported the Telegraph.

• Deutsche Bank downgraded REITs AvalonBay (NYSE: AVB), Boston Properties (NYSE: BXP), Health Care REIT (NYSE: HCN), Kimco (NYSE: KIM) and Public Storage (NYSE: PSA) to Hold from Buy on valuation following the recent share appreciation.
  
• Business Objects (NASDAQ: BOBJ) was downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Baird following its acquisition by SAP AG (NYSE: SAP).
  
• Wachovia downgraded Allstate Corporation (NYSE: ALL) to Market Perform from Outperform and P&C Insurance (NYSE: PGR) citing deteriorating fundamentals in personal lines.

• UBS downgraded BEA Systems (NASDAQ: BEAS) to Neutral from Buy.
  
• JP Morgan downgraded Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) to Neutral from Outperform.
  
• Sealy Corporation (NYSE: ZZ) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Banc of America.
  
• Friedman Billings downgraded technology stocks, lowering ASE Test Limited (NASDAQ: ASTSF), ASML Holding (NASDAQ: ASML), KLA-Tencor (NASDAQ: KLAC) and Rudolph Technologies (NASDAQ: RTEC) to Market Perform from Outperform.

MOST NOTEWORTHY:

• Citigroup upgraded shares of Anheuser-Busch (NYSE: BUD) to Hold from Sell as they see a 70% chance of an alliance between Anheuser-Busch and InBev in the next two years; they believe such a merger would create a market leader.

• Merriman upgraded IMAX Corp (NASDAQ: IMAX) to Buy from Neutral after IMAX removed its overhang by completing SEC filings, while fundamentals have remained strong.

• Citigroup upgraded Amgen (NASDAQ: AMGN) to Hold from Sell to reflect the potential for CMS to roll back proposed reimbursement cuts in oncology, an improving risk/reward profile and the potential for positive phase 3 denosumab data by year-end.

• Stifel raised its rating on Fifth Third Bancorp (NASDAQ: FITB) to Hold from Sell on valuation.

• Kaufman upgraded TiVO (NASDAQ: TIVO) to Buy from Sell as indicators of the change in its business model suggest a positive transaction. The firm feels the the EchoStar (DISH) litigation provides an attractive risk/reward potential, creating an attractive entry point...

• Aflac (NYSE: AFL) was upgraded at Lehman to Overweight from Underweight.

• Stifel upgraded Progressive (NYSE: PGR) to Hold from Sell.

• Wedbush upgraded Jack in the Box (NYSE: JBX) to Buy from Hold.

• Eastman Chemical (NYSE: EMN) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Citigroup.

• Navteq (NYSE: NVT) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS.

MOST NOTEWORTHY:

• Merrill Lynch upgraded shares of Tompkins plc (NYSE: TKS) to Neutral from Sell on valuation as they believe the company's exposure to the weak U.S. residential and automotive markets is priced into shares.

• RBC Capital raised Commerce Bancorp (NYSE: CBH) to Sector performer from Underperformer. They view the terms of the consent order as a positive and believe the company will now consider a sale given the resignation of CEO Vernon Hill. Keefe Bruyette also upgraded shares of Commerce to Market Perform from Underperform.

• Deutsche Bank upgraded Tribune Co (NYSE: TRB) to Buy from Hold as they believe the going-private transaction will be completed.

• ThinkEquity upgraded Progressive Gaming (NASDAQ: PGIC) to Buy from Accumulate following a recent trip to Macau and marketing meetings with management that reinforced their confidence in the company's long-term viability and strong market positioning...

• Goldman upgraded Costco Wholesale Corp (NASDAQ: COST) to Buy from Neutral.

• Wachovia raised The McClatchy Co (NYSE: MNI) to Outperform from Market Perform.

• InterOil Corp (AMEX: IOC) was upgraded to Strong Buy from Outperform at Raymond James.

• JP Morgan added Las Vegas Sands (NYSE: LVS) to its Focus List.

• Banc of America added Archer Daniels Midland Co (NYSE: ADM) to Buy from Neutral.

MOST NOTEWORTHY:

• Goldman downgraded shares of Continental Airlines, Inc (NYSE: CAL) to Neutral from Buy on valuation, higher oil prices and a weak domestic market.

• Goldman also downgraded Molson Coors Brewing Co (NYSE: TAP) to Neutral from Buy based on the increase in analyst estimates, valuation and the potential for margin pressure in the summer.

• BB&T cut Watsco, Inc (NYSE: WSO) to Hold from Buy based on valuation and catalysts that are already reflected in the share price.

• Roth Capital downgraded shares of K-V Pharmaceutical Co (NYSE: KV.A) to Hold from Buy, telling clients they have learned that Par Pharmaceuticals Cos (PRX) has launched generics of 50, 100 and 200mg Toprol-XL. The firm expects a material impact to KV's 100 and 200mg strength generics.

• Stifel expects investor enthusiasm regarding Progressive's Corp (NYSE: PGR) recapitalization plan to fade as underwriting fundamentals deteriorate and cut shares to Sell from Hold.

• Color Kinetics (NASDAQ: CLRK) was downgraded to Hold from Sell at Needham on valuation...

• Citigroup cut The Phoenix Co's (NYSE: PNX) to Hold from Buy.

• KeyBank downgraded Lubrizol Corp (NYSE: LZ) to Hold from Buy.

• Goldcorp Inc (NYSE: GG) and Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc (NYSE: FCX) were downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital.

• Susquehanna downgraded Build-A-Bear Workshop, Inc (NYSE: BBW) to Neutral from Positive.

MOST NOTEWORTHY:

• Goldman upgraded shares of Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) to Buy from Neutral, telling customers valuation is discounting an earnings miss and reflects concerns about the company's capital allocation. The firm expects BBY to meet recent guidance and current Street estimates.
• Deutsche bank upgraded shares of Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) to Buy from Hold, citing expectations for operating margin improvement near-term and added growth and margin expansion longer-term from Web Services initiatives.
• JP Morgan upgraded shares of aQuantive (NASDAQ: AQNT) to Outperform from Neutral, citing valuation and stronger fundamentals as the firm expects Google's (GOOG) acquisition of DoubleClick to result in stable pricing during the integration process. aQuantive was also upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBSW and to Sector Outperformer from Sector Performer at CIBC.
• AT&T Inc (NYSE: T) was upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital, as the firm believes shares have stronger growth prospects compared to the group based on wirelines cost cutting, churn and margin improvements at Cingular.

• Goldman upgraded shares of Progressive Gaming International Corp (NASDAQ: PGIC) to Neutral from Sell on valuation.
• Banc of America upgraded shares of Apollo Group, Inc (NASDAQ: APOL) to Buy from Neutral.
• Matrix upgraded shares of Ruth's Chris Steak House, Inc (NASDAQ: RUTH) to Hold from Strong Sell.
• Bear Stearns upgraded Rural Cellular Corp (NASDAQ: RCCC) to Outperform from Peer Perform.
• Merrill raised COTT Corp's (NYSE: COT) rating off the ground, upgrading shares to Neutral from Sell.

MOST NOTEWORTHY:

• Vonage Holdings Corp (NYSEL VG) was downgraded to Underperform from Peer Perform at Bear Stearns following the court injunction barring Vonage from using Verizon Communications' (VZ) patented technology.

• Boston Scientific Corp (NYSE: BSX) was cut to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO. Cowen removed Boston Scientific from its Focus List citing superior clinical results from Abbott Laboratories' (ABT) drug-eluting stent, Xience V.

• Deutsche Bank downgraded Sunoco (NYSE: SUN) to Hold from Buy with a $72 target on valuation.

• CV Therapeutics (NASDAQ: CVTX) was downgraded at Deutsche Bank, to Sell from Hold with a $2 target. The downgrade was ahead of the full Ranexa Merlin PIII data to be presented at the American College of Cardiology on Tuesday, March 27th, as the firm believes it will fall short of generating sufficient positive data trends for supporting Ranexa's outlook.

• DaimlerChrysler (NYSE: DCX) was removed from JP Morgan's Focus List as the firm believes the potential divestiture of Chrysler is at least partially priced into shares; JP Morgan maintains an Overweight rating on the stock.

• Morgan Stanley cut Progressive Corp (NYSE: PGR) to Underweight from Equal-Weight.

• William Blair downgraded Kronos Inc (NASDAQ: KRON) to Market Perform from Outperform following the company's acquisition.

• Bank of America downgraded Paxar Corp (NYSE: PXR) to Neutral from Buy on news of Avery Dennison Corp's (AVY) acquisition of the company.

• Deutsche Bank cut Tesoro Corp (NYSE: TSO) to Sell from Hold with an $85 target.

• Goldman Sachs cut Volvo (NASDAQ: VOLV) to Neutral from Buy on valuation.

MOST NOTEWORTHY:

• JP Morgan upgraded EMC Corp (NYSE: EMC) to Overweight from Neutral as the firm believes improved momentum in the second-half of 2007 will drive shares higher.

• Network Appliance (NASDAQ: NTAP) was also upgraded by JP Morgan, to Overweight from Neutral, as the firm believes storage will experience improving secular trends this year.

• Citigroup upgraded ImClone (NASDAQ: IMCL) to Hold from Sell and raised their target to $40 from $26 due to lower competitive threats from Amgen Inc's (AMGN) Vectibix.

• Prudential raised International Game Technology's (NYSE: IGT) rating to Neutral from Underweight, citing valuation.

• Goldman Sachs upgraded DreamWorks Animation SKG, Inc (NYSE: : DWA) to Buy from Neutral with a $36 target and added DWA to their Americas Investment Buy List. Goldman believes the company's new films should drive a higher valuation.

• Wachovia upgraded Urban Outfitters, Inc (NASDAQ: URBN) to Outperform from Market Perform after a meeting with management as they believe a turnaround is well in progress.

• Wachovia upgraded Northrop Grumman Corp (NYSE: NOC) to Market Perform from Underperform on valuation.

• AG Edwards upgraded Western Union Co (NYSE: WU) to Buy from Hold with a $36 target.

• Friedman, Billings, Ramsey upgraded shares of Progressive Corp (NYSE: PGR) to Market Perform from Underperform on valuation.