There's a baseball play-by-play announcer with a pretty good team, whose made a small fortune uttering phrases like, "I tell you what you can do with that prediction: You can take that prediction and throw it in the East River. That's how much that prediction is worth."

In general, the same can be said about economic/budget projections. A little advice regarding economic and budget projections: don't work yourself up in to a lather over them.

Reuters writes, "Projections for S&P 500 companies' fourth-quarter earnings swung to a 6.1 percent drop on Monday from an 11.5 percent rise on October 1, in the biggest quarterly move since Reuters Estimates started compiling analysts' forecasts in 1999." Tech company earnings are still expected to rise 25%, but that is the extent of the good news.

The impact on the stock markets could be significant. Investors are used to earnings surprises that run on the sunny side.

The S&P 500 is up only 18% since the beginning of 1999. This is due, to some extent, to the huge drop the index suffered in 2002. It points to a stock market that has not performed as well as earnings have. It is, is essence, more fragile than the corporate results which have driven it.

The index sits just below 1,500 and has taken a big run-up since mid-2006. It is not hard to believe that a contraction of earnings growth would take it down 20%, which is about where it was 18 months ago. If the economy has entered a recession, investors should be happy if it does not go lower.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

I rattled some cages by pulling back the curtain on General Electric (NYSE: GE). I did that for good reason. The way I see it, there are going to be some significant readjustments in the markets starting early next year. The heady upward spiral we've been watching just can't go on forever. I'm sorry I have to make that call but that's the way I see it. Values have to equalize sometime. Overvaluations need to recede and correct. I'm thinking it's time now to pull some profit, take a stance, and brace yourself for a bit of a downward ride.

That's why I'm so high on GE. In my view there's no better place to shore up some funds. In fact, I have heard of GE as being referred to as a marvelous hedge of protection when times get volatile. It sure looks that way to me. In his recent statement to investors, GE chairman and CEO Jeff Immelt made his declaration of his company's strategic position clear and strong. Consistent growth, responsible investment, conservative diversification, and quality people, these are the things which Mr. Immelt banks on. This one handy quote from CEO Immelt puts GE's performance for 2006 into a nice sturdy package:

"The year is going to be a good year. Revenue will be $163 billion, up 10%. Earnings will be $20.5 billion, up 12%. Earnings per share up 15 or 16%. Cash flow at $25 billion, up 15%. Two point expansion and return on total capital and a pretty attractive segment profile. If you look across the company, really the only business that is turnaround mode is NBC Universal."