TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the action in some of the banks and insurers is sickening.
They've gotten to the fortress banks. They have crushed everything financial because the word is out: No more bonuses and no more dividends if you take federal money under President Obama.
I don't know if it is true. But I sense from the action since the election that something big and bad is happening to the banks and the insurers. It looks like there is a quid pro quo developing and that quid pro quo is that if you want to get help from the government you are not going to get a bonus and you have to hurt your shareholders.
Best Buy Inc. (NYSE: BBY) shares are down after the company said it sees softer consumer spending and lowered fiscal 2009 EPS guidance.
American Express Co. (NYSE: AXP) -- The Wall Street Journal reported that according to its sources, AmEx is seeking about $3.5 billion from the U.S. government to help boost its balance sheet. This follows Monday's Federal approval for AmEx to become a bank holding company.
General Motors Corp. (NYSE: GM) -- House Speaker Nancy Pelosi thinks GM is too big to fail and wants Congress to support a financial assistance for the troubled U.S. auto industry. This follows Obama urging Bush to support aid for struggling automakers and Democrats in Congress passing legislation that would give GM, Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) and Chrysler access to $25 billion in government-backed loans. But automakers need more. GM shares are trading higher.
Prudential Financial Inc. (NYSE: PRU) said late Tuesday it will pay a dividend of 58 cents per share on Dec. 19 to shareholders of record at the close of business on Nov. 24. This 2008 annual dividend is roughly half of the $1.15 per share it paid out to shareholders last year.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says tons of stocks look like good buys, and they go down all the time.
All weekend I heard it. Stocks have gotten too cheap. Put 'em away cheap. Don't worry about 'em cheap. To which I say, stocks are only cheap if the companies make it. Stocks are only cheap if the bondholders don't claim them.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says this trade has worked all week, but it's a shaky play on the fundamentals.
It's a stubborn market. We sit here and marvel that Barclays (NYSE: BCS) (Cramer's Take) or Mitsubishi (NYSE: MTU) (Cramer's Take) need to raise money when three weeks ago we thought they were going to inherit the earth because they didn't lose money. We liked them because we stubbornly believed they were better.
We thought that Prudential (NYSE: PRU) (Cramer's Take) was The Rock; now it is The Rock like the guy who makes a lot of movies -- not all of them good. Lincoln National (NYSE: LNC) (Cramer's Take) was perceived to be much higher quality than MetLife (NYSE: MET) (Cramer's Take), but that's wrong. The idea that the Hartford (NYSE: HIG) (Cramer's Take) would be in trouble, as it has always been not in trouble, is amazing to us.
We stubbornly cling to the ones that we thought were good until we hear that they need a bailout. Then we turn on them like they were never good or like they are going to go bankrupt.
U.S. stock futures declined Wednesday morning but then turned positive seesawed Wednesday morning, a day after one of the biggest day of gains on Wall Street that saw the Dow industrials end up 889 points and close above 9,000 again, as investors awaited the Federal Reserve decision on interest rates to be announced at 2:15 pm. Most are expecting the Fed to cut rates by at least half a point to 1%. Meanwhile, oil rebounded from a 17-month low to above $64 per barrel ahead of the weekly inventory report due out later today. Also, September durable goods orders will be released ahead of the opening bell.
Kraft Foods Inc. (NYSE: KFT) reported adjusted earnings of 44 cents per share, inline with estimates. Kraft also raised expectations for 2008 earnings.
Sony Corp. (NYSE: SNE) reported that quarterly profit plunged 72% due to a surging yen that wiped out profits from flat-panel TV and PlayStation 3 sales and revenue from the movie Hancock. This shouldn't have come as a surprise as last year the company slashed full year outlook.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the safety theme will come back if only because these companies' earnings will be good in six months.
Editor's note: Jim Cramer will present his 2009 stock outlook for the first time at TheStreet.com Investment Conference on Saturday, Oct. 25. Click for details.
Now they come after the Procter & Gambles (NYSE: PG) (Cramer's Take) and the General Mills (NYSE: GIS) (Cramer's Take) and the like, betting that the action will be better in the cyclicals with all of this money being printed worldwide.
Commodities are also coming back because of reflation. And we have to feel that many of the infra and ag names are finally sold out by the hedge fund redemptions.
Here I am speaking of a Freeport McMoRan (NYSE: FCX) (Cramer's Take), with its good yield and a belief that the hedge funds are at last done.
I don't buy it. I like a balanced portfolio, but I want to buy the GIS/PG all the way down because we are going into a recession, not going out of one. These companies pay dividends, raise dividends and have great commodity tailwinds.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says too much time has passed, too many institutions are out of cash.
When we say "too big to fail," what we mean is an entity that has so many tentacles in so many parts of the economic superstructure that if it failed, the consequences would be too grave for the system itself.
With the demise of Lehman, we at last see what it is like to have something too big to fail, fail. That's why you can see every insurer go down in the beat of an eyelash, or every broker roll over with lightning speed. It is how you could see commercial paper lines frozen and how you could expect money funds to crater and break the buck.
Lehman was twice as big as Bear and much more far-reaching. It was the other side of the trade, we are discovering, for myriad financial players. Its paper pervaded the system and was seemingly owned like U.S. government paper was. It was levered against and it was priceless collateral that is, well, priceless collateral. It did things with your margin account to gain you a return that reduced your cash to unsecured status.
In short, Lehman may bring down the Western financial world. That's right, it might. Almost everything you are seeing since Lehman's demise can be traced directly or indirectly to Lehman.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says this insurance company is a sign of lower costs, and it's not done yet.
How many ways can I explain that what's going on is massively deflationary? How about by pointing out one of the most sensitive stocks to deflation: Prudential (NYSE: PRU) (Cramer's Take). Take a look at the move this stock has had from its lows. It's almost a 50% move! That's remarkable. It is a sign that everything is worth less than it was a couple of months ago!
I have long used the price of conservative insurance companies -- and PRU is a conservative one -- as a gauge of inflation. Now, I know that Barron's had a positive article about PRU this weekend, but all you really got was a rehash of what an analyst has been saying. That's not behind the gain.
This company is a bulwark of deflation. Why anyone thinks that inflation is still a problem after looking at that chart is just nuts.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Seaspan, Vodafone, Telefonica and 8x8 Inc. were today's noteworthy initiations:
Jefferies believes shares of Seaspan (NYSE: SSW) are attractively valued at current levels given the company's large modern fleet of containerships and "excellent" earnings and cash flow visibility; shares were initiated with a Buy rating and $33 target.
Vodafone (NYSE: VOD) and Telefonica (NYSE: TEF) were assumed with Outperform ratings at Bernstein, as they believe their mobile growth will be stronger than expected.
Kaufman Bros. believes 8x8 Inc. (NASDAQ: EGHT) is on the cusp of posting sustainable profitability and could be an attractive acquisition candidate. The firm started shares with a Buy rating and $2 target.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
Goldman initiated Ford (NYSE: F) with a Neutral rating.
Sensient Tech (NYSE: SXT) was started withan Outperform rating and $36 target at Oppenheimer.
Friedman Billings assumed Prudential FInancial (NYSE: PRU) with a Market perform rating and $86 target.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Prudential Financial were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Bernstein upgraded shares of BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP) and Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP) to Outperform from Market Perform as they believe urbanization in China will increase demand for metals.
Prudential Financial (NYSE: PRU) was raised to Overweight from Underweight at Lehman as they believe the company's exposure to commercial mortgage-backed securities is limited.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Merck, the European semiconductor sector, Thornburg Mortgage and Prudential were today's notable upgrades:
Merck & Co Inc (NYSE: MRK) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral by Bank of America, which believes the company's sales momentum will continue.
The European semiconductor sector, which includes Infineon Technologies AG (NYSE: IFX) was upgraded to Positive from Neutral by Lehman Brothers, as they believe a recovery is under way in the industry. The firm upgraded Infineon to Equal Weight from Underweight.
Thornburg Mortgage Inc (NYSE: TMA) was upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at Piper, as they see limited liquidity risks, given the strong quality of the company's mortgage assets.
Prudential Financial Inc (NYSE: PRU) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral by Friedman Billings, which cited valuation and the quality of the company's investment portfolio.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Cheesecake Factory (CAKE), Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD), Alltel (AT), Home Depot (HD) and Nokia (NOK) were today's more noteworthy downgrades:
Cheesecake Factory (NASDAQ: CAKE) was downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at CIBC, to Outperform from Strong Buy at Raymond James and to Peer Perform from Outperform at Bear Stearns after the company reduced its second quarter guidance.
Lehman downgraded Alltel Corp (NYSE: AT) to Equal Weight from Overweight as the firm doesn't expect a competing bid for the company.
Home Depot (NYSE: HD) was cut to Market Perform from Outperform following yesterday's rally and feels that with the HD sale out of the way, the focus will now turn to Home Depot's ability to grow in the challenging do-it-yourself retail market. Goldman cut Nokia to Neutral from Buy on valuation...
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
JP Morgan cut Headwaters (NYSE: HW) to Underweight from Neutral.
On today's Stop Trading! on CNBC, Jim Cramer gave his take on a couple issues in the financial services group today. Cramer's basic premise was "short Ameritrade Holding Corp. (NASDAQ: AMTD), long Prudential Financial Inc. (NYSE:PRU)." The basis is that he feels that the gap in Ameritrade based on a filing showing pressure to merge with a competitor is not really going up much from here and that Joe Moglia will have a hard time squeezing extra value from here above all the wins he has already made. Cramer also thinks that this move out away from trading and research at Prudential is a good move.
The long and short of the matter is that Cramer's stance may be right on, since Ameritrade may be in a spot where adding more value gets more difficult. The stock is on a 52-week high today, and up more than 50% from the 52-week lows and carries a $12.5 billion market cap. But this company does not have to buckle because two hedge funds decide to go activist. It has the full backing of Toronto Dominion Bank (NYSE:TD) as far as everyone knows and shares were under $5 five-years ago. Moglia should either send S.A.C. and JANA Partners a copy of his middle finger or he should sit on the photocopier and send them that picture. These activists have gone mad and gone on a fishing expedition, even if Ameritrade did reach $25 in early 2006.
As far as whether or not the market likes the Prudential call like Cramer does, you have to ask why shares are down 1%. The company has just removed any advantage it might have had over a discount broker, and now it is essentially a financial widget maker hiding behind the ruse of an asset gatherer. I will concede that Cramer said the research was great out of Prudential, but calling the "research drop" good is like saying "information has no value." Good luck selling those overpriced annuities boys!
Insurance and money management giant Prudential announced Wednesday that it will close its 420-position research and trading unit.
Prudential said it would take a $72 million after-tax charge to accommodate the change, which includes employee severance, and related costs.
Prudential said the research and trading operation did not produce a large enough success to warrant continuation, Prudential Spokeswoman Theresa Miller told The Associated Press. The research and trading unit had reported 2006 revenue of $260 million, a small slice of Prudential's $32.5 billion 2006 revenue.
Prudential Financial Inc. (NYSE: PRU) shares were down $1.17 to $99.40 in Wednesday afternoon trading. Analysts said Prudential's operation had to rely on institutional equity commission revenue, without a full-scale retail sales operation -- a decided operational disadvantage. Moreover, smaller margins and an abundance of well-capitalized research and equity brokerage players have created market conditions that require full-scale efforts for an organization to secure a slice of what has become an increasingly contested space.
Prudential said it would close offices and trading operations in nine U.S. cities, and in London, Paris, Zurich, and Tokyo, as part of the move.
The Wall Street Journal's "Heard on the Street" column focused on Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ: SBUX), writing that some analysts see the stock rebounding since being beaten down after hitting a 52-week high in November.
Also in the Wall Street Journal, "The Mossberg Solution" reviewed the Apple TV product from Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL), concluding that it is "a very well-designed product that easily brings the computer and the TV together."
The Financial Times reported that Mike Mayo, one of Wall Street's best known financial services analysts, is heading to Deutsche Bank AG (NYSE: DB) after leaving Prudential (NYSE: PRU).
OTHER PAPERS:
According to the Economic Times, International Business Machines Corporation (NYSE: IBM) is close to signing a 10-year $700M outsourcing contract with Idea Cellular in India.
The U.K. Times reported that prospective merger partners Barclays plc ADS (NYSE: BCS) and ABN Amro Holdings (NYSE: ABN) are considering using the proceeds from a possible sale of ABN Amro's LaSalle retail bank to generate a merger dividend for shareholders on both sides of the possible merger.
WEBSITES:
Henry Blodget's Internet Outsider blog wrote that Google Inc (NASDAQ: GOOG) should buy Spot Runner, which reduces the cost and time necessary to plan and buy a TV advertising campaign.