It's official: the holiday season is here, marking the beginning of the race to the end of the year. It's also time for another FOMC interest rate decision, as well as for another look at the employment situation, perhaps the most dreaded measure of the economic recovery in the U.S. This week will bring the Challenger job cut announcements for October on Wednesday, initial jobless claims for last week and the Monster Employment Index for October on Thursday, and the employment numbers for October on Friday.

The earnings season rolls on this week as well, and analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters are expecting good showings from the reports of Boston Beer Company Inc. (NYSE: SAM), DirecTV Group Inc. (NASDAQ: DTV), Sara Lee Corp. (NYSE: SLE), Starbucks Corp. (NASDAQ: SBUX), and Whole Foods Market Inc. (NASDAQ: WFMI).

American International Group (NYSE: AIG), once the world's largest insurer, is selling assets outside the U.S. to repay a government bailout. The Carlyle Group, KKR, JC Flowers, and other U.S. private equity firms and Asian financial groups are reported to be interested in AIG's Taiwanese unit Nan Shan Life Insurance Co.

"Everyone hopes this is going to be a fire sale as AIG is in a difficult situation," said a local partner of Standard & Poor's.

If you've been watching earnings this past week, or if you read last week's Week in Preview, then this coming week may leave you feeling a bit like Bill Murray in Groundhog's Day. That is, again analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect earnings declines to be more frequent and deeper than earnings gains.

Motorola Inc. (NYSE: MOT), Dow Chemical Co. (NYSE: DOW), Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: APC), IAC Interactivecorp (NASDAQ: IACI), Moody's Corp. (NYSE: MCO), Elizabeth Arden Inc. (NASDAQ: RDEN), Devon Energy Corp. (NYSE: DVN), Diebold Inc. (NYSE: DBD), Tyco International Ltd. (NYSE: TYC), United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS), Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO), Polo Ralph Lauren Corp. (NYSE: RL), ITT Corp. (NYSE: ITT), and Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS) are scheduled to report quarterly results this week, and they're all expected to report double-digit declines in earnings.

But again this week, let's take a look who Wall Street feels may have done well in the past quarter.

Analyst upgrades:

• PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank.
• Fortress (NYSE: FIG) was upgraded at Citigroup to Hold from Sell.
• Prudential (NYSE: PUK) was lifted to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan.
• Keefe Bruyette upgraded Franklin Resources (NYSE: BEN) to Outperform from Market Perform and added shares to their Best Ideas List on valuation as they see an attractive risk/reward at current levels.
• UBS upgraded ASML Holding (NASDAQ: ASML) to Buy from Neutral on valuation as they believe the company remains a market leader.
• Oppenheimer raised Seattle Genetics (NASDAQ: SGEN) to Outperform from Perform on valuation following the recent weakness as they expect positive clinical news flow beginning in December.

Analyst downgrades:

• UBS downgraded U.S. Steel (NYSE: X) to Sell from Buy and lowered its target to $30 from $60 citing deteriorating U.S. conditions and concerns about the company's high fixed costs in a falling steel price environment.
• Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS.A) was downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse.
  
• China Unicom (NYSE: CHU) was lowered to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says this insurance company is a sign of lower costs, and it's not done yet.

How many ways can I explain that what's going on is massively deflationary? How about by pointing out one of the most sensitive stocks to deflation: Prudential (NYSE: PRU) (Cramer's Take). Take a look at the move this stock has had from its lows. It's almost a 50% move! That's remarkable. It is a sign that everything is worth less than it was a couple of months ago!

I have long used the price of conservative insurance companies -- and PRU is a conservative one -- as a gauge of inflation. Now, I know that Barron's had a positive article about PRU this weekend, but all you really got was a rehash of what an analyst has been saying. That's not behind the gain.

This company is a bulwark of deflation. Why anyone thinks that inflation is still a problem after looking at that chart is just nuts.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Seaspan, Vodafone, Telefonica and 8x8 Inc. were today's noteworthy initiations:

• Jefferies believes shares of Seaspan (NYSE: SSW) are attractively valued at current levels given the company's large modern fleet of containerships and "excellent" earnings and cash flow visibility; shares were initiated with a Buy rating and $33 target.
  
• Vodafone (NYSE: VOD) and Telefonica (NYSE: TEF) were assumed with Outperform ratings at Bernstein, as they believe their mobile growth will be stronger than expected.
  
• Kaufman Bros. believes 8x8 Inc. (NASDAQ: EGHT) is on the cusp of posting sustainable profitability and could be an attractive acquisition candidate. The firm started shares with a Buy rating and $2 target.

OTHER INITIATIONS:

• Goldman initiated Ford (NYSE: F) with a Neutral rating.
  
• Sensient Tech (NYSE: SXT) was started withan Outperform rating and $36 target at Oppenheimer.
  
• Friedman Billings assumed Prudential FInancial (NYSE: PRU) with a Market perform rating and $86 target.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: MSC Industrial, Prudential plc and GrafTech were today's noteworthy upgrades:

• William Blair upgraded shares of MSC Industrial (NYSE: MSM) to Outperform from Market Perform on valuation and improved execution following the company's Q2 results.
  
• Keefe Bruyette raised Prudential plc (NYSE: PUK) to Outperform from Underperform as they believe the company's targets will be exceeded.
  
• Oppenheimer upgraded GrafTech (NYSE: GTI) to Outperform from Perform based on strong fundamentals, improving margins, and a strong 2008 order book.

OTHER UPGRADES:

• HFF Inc. (NYSE: HF) was raised to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley.
  
• Lehman raised Canadian Natural (NYSE: CNQ) to Overweight from Equal Weight.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Prudential Financial were today's noteworthy upgrades:

• Bernstein upgraded shares of BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP) and Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP) to Outperform from Market Perform as they believe urbanization in China will increase demand for metals.
  
• Prudential Financial (NYSE: PRU) was raised to Overweight from Underweight at Lehman as they believe the company's exposure to commercial mortgage-backed securities is limited.

OTHER UPGRADES:

• SL Green Realty (NYSE: SLG) and Brookfield Properties (NYSE: BPO) were upgraded at Credit Suisse to Neutral from Underperform.
  
• Yamana Gold (NYSE: AUY) was raised at UBS to Buy from Neutral.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Wal-Mart Stores, Magna International, EchoStar Communications, Westell Technologies and SiRF Technology were today's noteworthy upgrades:

• Rochdale upgraded shares of Wal-Mart Stores (NYSE: WMT) to Buy from Hold citing improved outlook for margins and ROIC.
• CIBC World Markets resumed coverage and upgraded shares of Magna International (NYSE: MGA) to Sector Outperformer from Sector Performer as they believe higher multiples are warranted due to the company's improving earnings power and cash flow generation.
  
• Oppenheimer upgraded shares of EchoStar Communications (NASDAQ: DISH) to Buy from Neutral as they believe recent events add $4-$6 per share to their valuation analysis.
  
• Westell Technologies (NASDAQ: WSTL) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Baird. The firm believes Westell is taking the right steps to improve its market position and financial performance.
  
• Credit Suisse upgraded SiRF Technology Holdings (NASDAQ: SIRF) to Outperform from Neutral, expecting the stock to benefit from a strong holiday season at electronic retailers.

OTHER UPGRADES:

• Goldman upgraded Campbell Soup Company (NYSE: CPB) to Neutral from Sell and Emerson Electric (NYSE: EMR) to Buy from Neutral.
  
• Keefe Bruyette upgraded Oriental Financial Group (NYSE: OFG) to Outperform from Market Perform.
  
• Prudential plc (NYSE: PUK) was raised to Outperform from Peer Perform.
  
• Wachovia upgraded Kindred Healthcare Inc (NYSE: KND) to Market Perform from Underperform.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Merck, the European semiconductor sector, Thornburg Mortgage and Prudential were today's notable upgrades:

• Merck & Co Inc (NYSE: MRK) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral by Bank of America, which believes the company's sales momentum will continue.
• The European semiconductor sector, which includes Infineon Technologies AG (NYSE: IFX) was upgraded to Positive from Neutral by Lehman Brothers, as they believe a recovery is under way in the industry. The firm upgraded Infineon to Equal Weight from Underweight.
• Thornburg Mortgage Inc (NYSE: TMA) was upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at Piper, as they see limited liquidity risks, given the strong quality of the company's mortgage assets.
  
• Prudential Financial Inc (NYSE: PRU) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral by Friedman Billings, which cited valuation and the quality of the company's investment portfolio.

OTHER UPGRADES:

• Citigroup assumed coverage of General Motors Corporation (NYSE: GM) with a Buy from a Sell.
  
• Nucor Corporation (NYSE: NUE) was added to the Focus List at Friedman Billings.
  
• Lehman Brothers upgraded Unilever plc (NYSE: UL) to Equal Weight from Underweight.
  
• Cincinnati Bell Inc (NYSE: CBB) was added to the Focus List at JMP Securities.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Cheesecake Factory (CAKE), Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD), Alltel (AT), Home Depot (HD) and Nokia (NOK) were today's more noteworthy downgrades:

• Cheesecake Factory (NASDAQ: CAKE) was downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at CIBC, to Outperform from Strong Buy at Raymond James and to Peer Perform from Outperform at Bear Stearns after the company reduced its second quarter guidance.

• Buffalo Wild Wings (NASDAQ: BWLD) was cut to Neutral from Buy at Merriman on valuation.

• Lehman downgraded Alltel Corp (NYSE: AT) to Equal Weight from Overweight as the firm doesn't expect a competing bid for the company.

• Home Depot (NYSE: HD) was cut to Market Perform from Outperform following yesterday's rally and feels that with the HD sale out of the way, the focus will now turn to Home Depot's ability to grow in the challenging do-it-yourself retail market. Goldman cut Nokia to Neutral from Buy on valuation...

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• JP Morgan cut Headwaters (NYSE: HW) to Underweight from Neutral.

• Citigroup downgraded Prudential Financial (NYSE: PRU) to Hold from Buy.

• Matrix USA cut Phototronics (NASDAQ: PLAB) to Sell from Hold.

• Ferris, Baker downgraded Gladstone Commercial Corp (NASDAQ: GOOD) to Neutral from Buy.

• Citigroup removed Office Depot (NYSE: ODP) from its Citi Recommended List.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

MAJOR PAPERS:

• The Wall Street Journal's "Heard on the Street" column focused on Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ: SBUX), writing that some analysts see the stock rebounding since being beaten down after hitting a 52-week high in November.
• Also in the Wall Street Journal, "The Mossberg Solution" reviewed the Apple TV product from Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL), concluding that it is "a very well-designed product that easily brings the computer and the TV together."
• The Financial Times reported that Mike Mayo, one of Wall Street's best known financial services analysts, is heading to Deutsche Bank AG (NYSE: DB) after leaving Prudential (NYSE: PRU).

OTHER PAPERS:

• According to the Economic Times, International Business Machines Corporation (NYSE: IBM) is close to signing a 10-year $700M outsourcing contract with Idea Cellular in India.
• The U.K. Times reported that prospective merger partners Barclays plc ADS (NYSE: BCS) and ABN Amro Holdings (NYSE: ABN) are considering using the proceeds from a possible sale of ABN Amro's LaSalle retail bank to generate a merger dividend for shareholders on both sides of the possible merger.

WEBSITES:

• Henry Blodget's Internet Outsider blog wrote that Google Inc (NASDAQ: GOOG) should buy Spot Runner, which reduces the cost and time necessary to plan and buy a TV advertising campaign.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• The Wall Street Journal (subscription required) reported that Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ: MSFT) has been ordered to pay $1.52B to Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU) for infringing patents on a fundamental technology for digital music.
• According to the Wall Street Journal's "Heard on the Street" column, shares of India's two largest private sector banking companies, Icici Bank Ltd. (NYSE: IBN) and HDFC Bank (NYSE: HDB), have tripled over the past three years. However, some investors are getting cautious on the stocks as India's central bank has taken tougher steps to rein in lending growth and stanch inflation.
• Barron's Online's (subscription required) "Weekday Trader" suggested investing in companies with modest dividend yields, but a strong cash position and business model, such as outsourcing player Paychex, Inc. (NASDAQ: PAYX), fast-food giant McDonald's Corp. (NYSE: MCD) and insurer Prudential Financial, Inc. (NYSE: PRU).

OTHER PAPERS:

• According to German website Heise Online, Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) will exhibit at CeBIT, the European version of the CES expo, from March 15 through the 21. Apple will be exhibiting the iPhone, said the site. However, according to German website Computerwoche, Apple has denied that it is participating in CeBIT. (Both links in German)
  
• Business Week's "Inside Wall Street" column mentioned UnitedHealth (NYSE: UNH), Epix (NASDAQ: EPIX) and LJ International (NASDAQ: JADE) positively.
  
• Warren Buffet has stirred up interest in UnitedHealth by reportedly buying one million shares in the company.
• Small biotech Epix, which recently signed a deal with GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE: GSK), could double within a year, believe some experts.
• LJ International, which has already risen from slightly over $4 to over $11 since December, may still have room to rise, according to Albert Lee of Maxim Group, who has a $12 price target on the stock.
• Investor's Business Daily's "New America" column highlighted Spartan Stores (NASDAQ: SPTN), the 10th largest grocery distributor in the U.S., which has seen earnings growth in double and triple digits for nine of the past ten quarters.

Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) opened at $85.98. So far today (12:02 PM) the stock has hit a low of $85.96 and a high of $88.96. AAPL is now trading at 88.85, up 2.95 (3.4%).

After hitting a one year high of 97.80 in January, the stock has settled down to its current support level around 85 over the past six weeks. Prudential lifted its quarterly profit estimates for Apple today, lifting shares in early trading. The technical indicators for AAPL have been bearish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a very positive 5 STAR strong buy rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a March bull-put credit spread below the $80 range. AAPL hasn't been below 80 since October and has shown support around 85. This trade could be risky if competitors make a foothold in the digital music business, but even if AAPL falters a little, there has been strong historical support above 80 that could protect this position, plus this position is less than a month away from expiration.

Brent Archer is an analyst on the move at Investors Observer. (Free Subscription)

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about.

Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) is passing the "stock market's drinking age" of $21 pre-market as Prudential Equity Group's analyst Katherine Styponias raised the firm's rating of TWX to Overweight and set a new $27 target. This is the first time TWX shares are passing the $21 mark in over a half-decade.

While she was positive on the rest of the company, the main focus of the report was on improving margins in the dominant cable unit due to the recent acquisition of Adelphia. Time Warner Cable could save as much as $200 million from work force cuts and lower programming costs and the spin-off the cable division could be sooner than investors are expecting. The report also said that the momentum could lead other firms to raise margin expectations and the company could exceed Wall Street estimates. Pre-market activity shows the stock up 1.1% at $21.14 on almost 50,000 shares.

This report seems a little late to the party as many firms have already raised the target. But the shares have been stuck between $20 and $21 for a while so it doesn't seem out of the ordinary. It should also be noted that Prudential does not do investment banking at all for the company, so there is less of a perceived conflict of interest than with other research notes from other bulge bracket brokerage firms on Wall Street.