While the earnings crunch for this quarter is all but over, there is still plenty of action in the earnings arena this coming week. For instance, analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial are expecting America's Car Mart Inc. (NASDAQ: CRMT) and Campbell Soup Co. (NYSE: CPB) to be among this week's top earnings gainers.
Bentonville, Ark.-based America's Car Mart is expected to post net income of 38 cents per share (up 52.6% from the same period a year ago) on revenue of $73.8 million (up 25.8%). The used car dealer chain has tended in recent quarters toward positive surprises -- by 21 cents per share, or 73.5%, in the previous quarter. The long-term EPS growth forecast is 15%, about the same as the S&P 500. The consensus recommendation of analysts is to buy CRMT.
Campell is tentatively scheduled to report this week, and the world's biggest soup maker is expected to post net income of 25 cents per share (up 44.0% from a year ago) on revenue of $1.7 billion (up 7.5%). The Camden, N.J.-based company has just missed earnings estimates in the past three quarters. Its long-term EPS growth forecast is 7.5%, which is less than the industry average, but about the same as rivals Kraft Foods (NYSE: KFT) and Heinz (NYSE: HNZ). The analysts' consensus recommendation is currently to buy Campbell.
Collective Brands (NYSE: PSS), operator of Payless ShoeSource and owner of the Stride Rite brand, reported Q1 earnings on Wednesday. Revenues increased 28% to $932 million. Pretty cool increase. Adjusting earnings per share for a litigation charge and an inventory issue, net income came in at $0.71 per share versus the $0.59 per share booked a year ago.
That's decent growth, but there are a couple things to consider here. First, the top line wasn't fully organic, as it includes the Stride Rite acquisition (remember that Payless ShoeSource bought out Stride Rite and became Collective Brands). Second, same-store sales did not confirm any sort of underlying healthy trend. Comps declined a nasty 6.5%. So, even though earnings expectations were beat by a wide margin according to MarketWatch (analysts seemed to think the shoe concern would do about $0.56 per share), I'm not fully impressed.
And let's go back to that litigation thing. The earnings release discusses the risk involved with an unfavorable ruling vis-a-vis the retailer's battle with Adidas. That's another strike against the company for me. From a price-action perspective, Collective Brands' stock has been rather weak as of late, and it currently sits much closer to the 52-week low than it does to the 52-week high.
Here's a peek at what analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial are expecting from companies scheduled to report quarterly results in the first week of June, 2008.
The following companies are expected to post earnings growth, compared to the same period in the previous year:
Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO) up 136.6% (from a loss) to $1.12 per share, on $499.1 million in revenue
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Analog Semiconductors, Hill International and Varian Semi were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Lehman upgraded Analog Devices (NYSE: ADI), Fairchild Semi (NYSE: FCS), and Intersil Corp (NASDAQ: ISIL) to Overweight from Equal Weight. The firm believes Analog semis have one of the most attractive risk/reward profiles in technology and expects the group to outperform in 2008.
B. Riley raised Hill International (NYSE: HIL) to Buy from Neutral following the company's Q4 results which they believe continued to reflect strong growth across both segments of the business.
ThinkEquity upgraded Varian Semi (NASDAQ: VSEA) to Accumulate from Source of Funds citing valuation and expectations that the company will end up with over 70% of the overall implant market past 2008. The firm adds that scale and pricing power should drive upside to margins.
OTHER UPGRADES:
Collective Brands (NYSE: PSS) was raised to Buy from Hold at Soleil.
JP Morgan upgraded Rockwell Collins (NYSE: COL) to Overweight from Neutral.
UBS upgraded Cigna (NYSE: CI) to Buy from Neutral.
Collective Brands (NYSE: PSS) is a global footwear and lifestyle brand holding company, formed by the August merger of Payless ShoeSource and Stride Rite. Its Payless ShoeSource division is the largest specialty family footwear retailer in the Western Hemisphere. Its Stride Rite division sells athletic branded footwear and high-quality children's shoes, primarily through wholesaling arrangements. Its Collective Licensing International unit specializes in brand management and global licensing of an expanding portfolio of youth, lifestyle and fashion athletic brands. Foot Locker (NYSE: FL) and Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) are major competitors.
The company pleased investors earlier in the month, when it reported Q3 EPS of 39 cents. That was seven cents better than the average analyst estimate. Q3 revenues rose 18% (y/y) to $830.7 million. The CEO attributed strength to diversification and the new hybrid business model. Caris & Company subsequently upgraded the stock to "above average" and boosted its price target to $22.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: FreeSeas, Nektar, Altus Pharmaceuticals and AbitibiBowater were today's noteworthy initiations:
Cantor initiated shares of FreeSeas (NASDAQ: FREE) with a Buy rating and $10 target, as they expect the company to benefit from the continued strength in the dry bulk market.
JP Morgan resumed coverage of Nektar (NASDAQ: NKTR) with an Overweight rating, as they view weakness from the discontinuation of Exubera as a buying opportunity given the company's base royalty business and pipeline opportunities.
Altus Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: ALTU) was initiated with a Buy rating and $19 target at Jefferies. The firm expects news flow from the company's two lead products over the next 6-12 months that should act as catalysts.
AbitibiBowater (NYSE: ABH) was initiated with a Sell rating and $18 target at Banc of America, as they are cautious on newsprint trends; the firm recommends reducing existing positions.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
Caris initiated Collective Brands (NYSE: PSS) with an Average rating and $18 target and Under Armour (NYSE: UA) with an Above Average rating.
Stifel started shares of Patriot Coal (NYSE: PCX) with a Hold rating.
PetroChina (NYSE: PTR) was initiated with a Sell rating at Goldman.
Discount shoe retailer Payless ShoeSource is now Collective Brands (NYSE: PSS), and recently acquired children's shoemaker Stride-Rite. Perhaps the split focus of trying to be both a discount and a full-price shoe store is what is causing profits to plummet. Collective Brands recently reported 2Q 2007 results. Profits dropped by 23% to just under $25 million, or diluted EPS of $0.38. Total sales were down 1%, not enough to worry, and same store sales were down 1.4%, again not enough to worry, yet. CEO Matthew Rubel blamed the downturn on weak sandal sales. Weak sandal sales in the summer? As good an excuse as any I suppose. But the fact remains the company is selling fewer shoes and making less money on those it does sell. 2Q numbers would have been even worse had the company not received $2.3 million from a lawsuit settled in its favor, and insurance payouts of $1.6 million to cover hurricane damage in 2006.
Collective Brands spent $1.8 million in 2Q 2007 on integration planning for the acquisition of Stride-Rite Shoes, an acquisition management states will have no impact, positive or negative, on earnings in 2008. Why not? What's the hold up that it will take until sometime in 2009 to figure out whether Stride-Rite was a good acquisition? $725 million of the acquisition was financed by a loan. For that kind of money in a company of this size, shareholders have a right to see what kind of bang they may or may not be getting for their investment buck.
To be fair, 2Q reporting period ended in early August, just before the big back-to-school shoe buying period. Inventory expenses was up 5.5% because the stores were stocking up in preparation for back-to-school purchases. Perhaps 3Q numbers will be more positive. Collective Brands bought back $4.6 million of its stock, 141,000 shares, in 2Q as part of a $32 million share repurchase program. This still has not helped the stock, which opened the year trading at $32.89, and now trades right around $23.20.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: PSS World Medical (PSSI), Rockwell (ROK), Open Text (OTEX), Sanderson Farms (SAFM) and Mentor (MNT) were today's noteworthy upgrades:
PSS World Medical (NASDAQ: PSSI) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Robert W. Baird. Baird said the quarter was impacted by one-time items and that core operations remain strong while private label, home care and HCIT initiatives may contribute to substantial margin improvement.
Friedman Billings added Rockwell Automation (NYSE: ROK) to its Top Picks list based on valuation and growth drivers.
Merrill Lynch upped shares of Open Text Corporation (NASDAQ: OTEX) to Neutral from Sell. Kaufman Brothers upgraded shares of the stock to Buy from Hold with a $27 target to reflect the company's better-than-expected Q4 results.
Sanderson Farms Inc (NASDAQ: SAFM) was upgraded to Strong Buy from Strong Sell on valuation and accelerating sales of the company's poultry products.
The firm upgraded shares of Mentor Corporation (NYSE: MNT) to Buy from Sell given the company's good performance and low risk.
OTHER UPGRADES:
Cache Inc (NASDAQ: CACH) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral with a $19 target at First Albany and to Outperform from Market Perform at Piper Jaffray.
Gabelli upgraded shares of Diageo (NYSE: DEO) to Buy from Hold.
RBC Capital Markets raised shares of Knology Inc (NASDAQ: KNOL) to Outperform from Sector Perform.
Goldman Sachs upgraded shares of Maxygen Inc (NASDAQ: MAXY) to Neutral from Sell.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Wal-Mart (WMT), Coldwater Creek (CWTR), Select Comfort (SCSS) and Anadys Pharma (ANDS) were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Merrill downgraded Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) to Sell from Neutral citing expectations of margin erosion.
Brean Murray cut Coldwater Creek (NASDAQ: CWTR) to Hold from Buy following their disappointing Q2 report and outlook.
Select Comfort (NASDAQ: SCSS) was cut to Strong Sell from Hold at Matrix based on weak performance and high risk characteristics.
Anadys Pharma (NASDAQ: ANDS) was downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Cowen, citing pipeline setbacks over the last 12 months, and lack of near-term catalysts...
Collective Brands (NYSE: PSS) is the company that formed as a result of Payless Shoe Source's acquisition of Stride Rite. The boring, innocuous name aside, CEO Matt Rubel has pretty ambitious plans. According to the Associated Press, Collective aims to become a "a brand-building powerhouse, injecting a heavy dose of marketing savvy into a stubbornly fragmented and sleepy industry". More acquisitions are believed to be on the way.
Why is this interesting for investors? As I wrote in a recent piece, there are a a lot of very cheap-looking shoe stocks on the market right now. I have found several manufacturers and a few retailers trading at what appear to be very cheap valuations. Their cheapness combined with Collective's acquisitiveness could lead to more deals at nice premiums for investors.
While I'm not a fan of buying on essentially blind speculation of buyouts, these stocks look cheap on their own merits, and may well be good investments even without industry consolidation. But the rise of Collective Brands could make them more timely.
Defining periods of irrational exuberance can be difficult. However, one method to do so might simply be to look at the headlines. Here are this morning's:
Crescent Real Estate Equities to be purchased by Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) Real Estate
The headlines are not too different from the 1980's LBO boom when virtually every headline was associated with a hostile buyout of some sort. Are we approaching the end of the buyout binge? Most likely not. These periods can last for years.
This buyout boom has been fueled by a number of factors. The most important factor has been undervalued stocks, which, in many cases, still remains. In the post tech-telecom bubble of the 1990s, investors went into a cocoon while U.S. company management continued to grow earnings and increase returns on investment.
What will end this buyout boom? My bet is a massive bull market which pushes valuations off the radar screen of private equity.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: NDS Group plc (NNDS), Payless ShoeSource, Inc (PSS), Southern Union Co (SUG) and Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc (TTWO) were today's noteworthy initiations:
B. Riley believes NDS Group (NASDAQ: NNDS) is in an attractive space with 42M digital TV subscribers, increasing competition between TV service providers and declining digital deployment costs, starting shares with a Buy rating and $66.50 target.
Calyon started Southern Union Co (NYSE: SUG) with a Buy rating and $38 target and sees positive catalysts over the next 12-18 months, including a potential takeover or monetization and the formal creation of an MLP.
Take-Two Interactive Software (NASDAQ: TTWO) was started with a Hold rating at Needham. The firm finds it unlikely that shares will outperform until new management sets forth their new plan, which is expected to take 3-6 months.
American Technology believes Cadence Pharmaceuticals, Inc's (NASDAQ: CADX) two late-stage products fill an important, unmet medical need and started the company with a Buy rating and $24 target.
While the earnings crunch for this quarter is all but over, there is still plenty of action in the earnings arena this coming week. For instance, analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial are expecting America's Car Mart Inc. (NASDAQ: CRMT) and Campbell Soup Co. (NYSE: CPB) to be among this week's top earnings gainers.
.gif){kind=logo}
.gif){kind=logo}
Discount shoe retailer Payless ShoeSource is now 
.gif){kind=logo}
.gif){kind=logo}
Stock picks and pans for troubled times: RIMM, ED, ISRG, GLW, LEA, SLB, GOOG ...
Is Berkshire Hathaway better than S&P Index?
Closing Bell: Torch Passing on a Friday Rally
