Analyst Upgrades

• Diamond Offshore (DO) to conviction buy from sell and Baker Hughes (BHI) to buy from neutral at Goldman.
• Frontier Communications (FTR) to outperform from market perform at Wells Fargo.
• Syntel (SYNT) to outperform from market perform at Wells Fargo, to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank and to buy from neutral at Janney Capital.
• Kulicke & Soffa (KLIC) and Fiserv (FISV) to outperform from perform at Oppenheimer.
• 3M (MMM) to neutral from underweight and Tyco (TYC) to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan.
• Collective Brands (PSS) and Nordstrom (JWN) to overweight from equal weight, as well as Foot Locker (FL) to equal weight from underweight, at Morgan Stanley.
• Amazon.com (AMZN) to buy from hold at Lazard Capital.
• Yamana Gold (AUY) to outperform from neutral at Credit Suisse.

Analyst Upgrades

• Hudson Square upgraded Take-Two (TTWO) to buy from hold, citing the better-than-expected Q3 report and increased guidance.
• Keybanc upgraded The Buckle (BKE) to hold from underweight given the potential for a special dividend in the near term.
• Stifel Nicolaus upgraded K-Sea Transportation (KSP) to hold from sell, citing KA First Reserve's $100M equity investment.
• Gold Fields (GFI) was upgraded to overweight from equal weight at Morgan Stanley.
• James Hardie NV (JHX) was upgraded to neutral from reduce at Nomura.

DSW Inc. (DSW) has come off its 52-week high of $33.49. The chart shows that the stock has been trending downward since April. One could argue that it is basically following the market and its current bearish tendencies. But what about the fundamentals? What do they say?

The footwear entity, whose related companies include Collective Brands (PSS) and J.C. Penney Company, Inc. (JCP), reported net income of 52 cents per share for the second quarter. Last year at this time, the business made 17 cents per share.

Collective Brands (PSS), which owns the Payless ShoeSource concept and competes with Walmart (WMT) and other retailers involved in the footwear industry, is down this afternoon by almost 9%. With about a half hour to go before the end of the session, the shares are trading at $19.63.

Why is the stock down? Looking at the Q1 earnings report, one gets the sense that the growth rate was attractive. The company made 83 cents per share versus 59 cents per share twelve months ago. Expectations were set at 75 cents per share. Free cash flow increased well over 8%. Shouldn't investors be bidding the shares higher?

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage on BloggingStocks:

• Aeropostale Inc. (ARO) strong Q3 results topped analysts expectations, and it offered Q4 earnings guidance.
• Cascade Corp. (CASC) reported a surprise Q3 profit but lower revenue fell short of expectations.
• Collective Brands Inc. (PSS) reported strong Q3 earnings as well as same-store sales growth.
• Cost Plus Inc. (CPWM) narrowed its net loss in Q3 but revenue and same-stores sales declined.
• Del Monte Foods Co. (DLM) posted strong Q2 results and raised its earnings outlook for the full year.
• Diamond Foods Inc. (DMND) posted better-than-expected Q1 earnings, but said that revenue declined.

Following on the heels of strong earnings results from Guess?, Inc. (GES) and Jos. A. Bank (JOSB), Aeropostale (ARO) and Collective Brands (PSS) also posted better-than-expected results Wednesday, lifting their shares.

Mall-based specialty retailer Aeropostale said earnings for its third quarter of fiscal 2009 increased 46% from a year ago to a record $0.92 per share. That compares to the $0.91 per share consensus estimate of analysts polled by Thomson Reuters. And for the quarter that ended October 31, net sales increased 18% to $567.8 million, also topping expectations. Aeropostale also said same-store sales for the quarter increased 10%.

Foot Locker (FL), which competes against Collective Brands (PSS) and Wal-Mart (WMT) for a share of the shoe industry, issued a Q3 report on Thursday after the bell that was typical of many retailers: declining sales and dismal profits. Sometimes, the market is in the mood to ignore such grim news, but such indifference is usually predicated on an earnings beat. Unfortunately, this was not the case for the New York-based specialty athletic retailer.

On an adjusted basis, per-share profit dropped over 40% to 10 cents per share. Analysts were looking for 13 cents per share, according to Earnings.com. Same-store sales took a dive of 8.2%.

Here are some highlights from last week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE: ANF) earnings prospects and declining sales resulted in a downgrade.
• America's Car-Mart Inc. (NASDAQ: CRMT) stronger-than-expected Q1 results led shares to a four-year high.
• ArcSight Inc. (NASDAQ: ARST) reported strong Q1 numbers on increasing demand for cyber security.
• Brown-Forman Inc. (NYSE: BF.B) Q1 results easily topped expectations despite a decline in revenue.
• Ciena Corp. (NASDAQ: CIEN) posted a Q3 loss but revenue improved sequentially, and shares rose.

Collective Brands (NYSE: PSS), which owns the Payless shoe store, issued its Q2 release after the bell on Wednesday. Earnings per share took a significant dive once you made some adjustments for last year's results. They came in at 29 cents per share, a decrease of over 40%. Net sales went down over 8%.

On the surface, the news isn't good -- and it gets worse. As we all know, every investor has to play the earnings game with Wall Street. Collective Brands lost the good fight. The market was looking for 33 cents per share, according to Earnings.com. Coming in four pennies short is about as comfortable as wearing sneakers two sizes too small. Shares of Collective Brands were punished in the after-hours' session, with investors bidding the stock down by close to 7% at one point, though it later recovered.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Aetna Inc. (NYSE: AET) lowered its 2009 earnings guidance, initially sending the share price lower.
• Ciena Corp. (NASDAQ: CIEN) reported a bigger-than-expected Q2 net loss as revenues sank.
• Collective Brands Inc. (NYSE: PSS) saw Q1 earnings and sales decline, but beat Wall Street estimates.
• Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) earnings prospects led Goldman Sachs analysts to increase its forecasts.
• Guess? Inc. (NYSE: GES) weak Q1 results topped estimates and it offered guidance that pleased investors.

Much of the attention this week will no doubt be on how the impending General Motors (NYSE: GM) bankruptcy will shake out, as well as the usual economic concerns: Has the housing market bottomed? Will oil prices keep rising? Is the employment situation getting any better? And so on (see highlights of the economic calendar below).

What probably won't get much attention are quarterly earnings, as the earnings season for this quarter winds down. But there are a few reports that analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters have high hopes for.

DSW (NYSE: DSW) issued a pretty short press release detailing its Q4 earnings on Wednesday. Can't blame management about that. There really wasn't much to say, other than the data did not look appealing.

The footwear business reported a loss of 17 cents per share. In the previous year's Q4, there was a profit of 2 cents per share (I'm sure DSW is looking on that time period with bitter nostalgia). Unfortunately, the market was looking for a loss of only 12 cents per share according to this.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Aeropostale Inc. (NYSE: ARO) strong Q3 results beat estimates despite the dismal retail environment.
• Alpha Natural Resources Inc. (NYSE: ANR) lowered its full-year forecast due to lower demand for coal.
• America's Car-Mart Inc. (NASDAQ: CRMT) reported higher Q2 earnings and higher same-store sales.
• Beazer Homes USA Inc. (NYSE: BZH) losses in Q4 more than tripled as revenue declined.
• Collective Brands Inc. (NYSE: PSS) Q3 profits were in line with estimates, enough to send shares higher.
• General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) cut its Q4 earnings forecast, which now falls in line with estimates.
• Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) warned that it may see its first quarterly loss ever in Q4.
• Guess? Inc. (NYSE: GES) strong Q3 results beat estimates but offered a conservative outlook.
• Infineon Technologies AG (NYSE: IFX) posted a wider Q4 loss on restructuring and warned of further losses.
• Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) 2009 earnings are expected to be diluted by an acquisition.
• Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (NASDAQ: MRVL) reported strong Q3 numbers, sending shares higher.
• Medicis Pharmaceutical Corp. (NYSE: MRX) earnings prospects after a settlement led to an analyst's upgrade.
• Merck & Co. Inc. (NYSE: MRK) lowered its 2009 earnings guidance below analysts' expectations.
• Palm Inc. (NASDAQ: PALM) said that it expects Q2 revenues to come in below analysts' estimates.

Collective Brands (NYSE: PSS - option chain) shares have moved higher today after the company, which includes Payless Shoe Source and Stride Rite reported a third-quarter profit of $47.5 million, or 75 cents per share, on revenue of $862.7 million. PSS's adjusted profit of 42 cents per share met analysts' estimates of 42 cents per share on revenue of $840.7 million. In this environment, merely meeting estimates warrants a 20+% jump in stock price. It seems that PSS is keeping up its profits the same way discounters like Family Dollar (NYSE: FDO) have by taking advantage of cost-conscious consumers. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on PSS.

PSS opened this morning at $7.76. So far today the stock has hit a low of $7.68 and a high of $9.70. As of 12:00, PSS is trading at $9.11, up $1.85 (25.5%). The chart for neutral and S&P gives PSS a 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a March bull-put credit spread below the $5 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 19.0% return in just three and a half months as long as PSS is above $5 at March expiration. Collective would have to fall by more than 45% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

PSS hasn't been below $5 at all except for one day in the past year and has shown support around $6.50 recently.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in PSS or FDO.

While the earnings crunch for this quarter is all but over, there is still plenty of action in the earnings arena this coming week. For instance, analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial are expecting America's Car Mart Inc. (NASDAQ: CRMT) and Campbell Soup Co. (NYSE: CPB) to be among this week's top earnings gainers.

Bentonville, Ark.-based America's Car Mart is expected to post net income of 38 cents per share (up 52.6% from the same period a year ago) on revenue of $73.8 million (up 25.8%). The used car dealer chain has tended in recent quarters toward positive surprises -- by 21 cents per share, or 73.5%, in the previous quarter. The long-term EPS growth forecast is 15%, about the same as the S&P 500. The consensus recommendation of analysts is to buy CRMT.

Campell is tentatively scheduled to report this week, and the world's biggest soup maker is expected to post net income of 25 cents per share (up 44.0% from a year ago) on revenue of $1.7 billion (up 7.5%). The Camden, N.J.-based company has just missed earnings estimates in the past three quarters. Its long-term EPS growth forecast is 7.5%, which is less than the industry average, but about the same as rivals Kraft Foods (NYSE: KFT) and Heinz (NYSE: HNZ). The analysts' consensus recommendation is currently to buy Campbell.

Other anticipated double-digit earnings gainers scheduled to report this week include brand name apparel maker Guess Inc. (NYSE: GES), mining equipment maker Joy Global (NASDAQ: JOYG), and chip maker National Semiconductor (NYSE: NSM). And Take-Two Interactive Software (NASDAQ: TTWO) is expected to swing to a profit.