Aeropostale (NYSE: ARO), a retailer whose colleagues include Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF), Pacific Sunwear of California (NASDAQ: PSUN) and Gap (NYSE: GPS), issued its Q2 report on Thursday. The stock didn't do much after the numbers were made public despite reporting a very nice 21% increase in sales during Q2, and a whopping 63% jump in earnings per diluted share to 31 cents. Why such a blasé reaction? Well, the retailer was only able to match the expectations of Wall Street analysts, so that might offer some justification for the lack of a decisive bid.
I felt the same way after reading Aeropostale's earnings release as I did after perusing the stats behind GameStop's (NYSE: GME) recent quarter, thinking the company deserved at least a little excitement, especially when one considers that last year at this time, the mall chain saw a 4% contraction in same-store sales. Of course, there is one understandable difference between the GameStop situation and the Aeropostale scenario. GameStop's stock wasn't trading near a 52-week high, and Aeropostale's shares are. So, perhaps the market is perceiving that a lot of the good news is already priced in.
Aeropostale has done well this year. Its stock is up over 28%. Should that concern potential investors? Perhaps. After all, this is a mall retailer based on fashion and investors must consider that Aeropostale's current hot streak could cool. If that happens, the stock might end up retreating back to the lower end of its 52-week range. While there are any signs that such a retreat will happen, I only want to throw into the discussion the concept of fickleness among the youth.
If you really like Aeropostale and want to buy its stock, it might not be so bad to wait for a better price, in my opinion, to allow at least a little margin for error.
Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.
U.S. stock futures were higher this morning, pointing to a potential positive start on Wall Street. Investors this morning await Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke speech on financial stability scheduled for 10:00 a.m. from the Fed's annual retreat at Jackson Hole. In the face of recent financial turmoil, namely talk of a government bailout for Fannie and Freddie, as well as troubles at Lehman, Bernanke's speech will likely be today's highlight. Meanwhile, oil dropped a little from Thursday's advance.
Indeed, the Wall Street Journalreports that Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) "executives are sounding out private-equity firms and other investors about the possibility of buying new common or preferred shares in the mortgage company." But of course, investors are worries their investments in Freddie or Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) may be lost in case of a government bailout. Even Warren Buffett opined on the matter on CNBC this morning, saying he expects the government to take action to support troubled mortgage financiers.
Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH) is rebounding this morning after an analyst at Ladenburg Thalmann upgraded LEH to Buy Thursday, saying it is vulnerable to a hostile takeover.
Verizon Communications (NYSE: VZ) is close to an agreement with Google (NASDAQ: GOOG), according to the Wall Street Journal. Conceding they need help with search, the deal could make Google the default search provider on Verizon devices.
Rival home improvement chains Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD) and Lowe's Companies Inc. (NYSE: LOW) are scheduled to report quarterly results this week. Not surprisingly, given the ongoing housing slump, analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial on average expect both companies to post earnings lower than in the same period a year ago. For Home Depot, that's 61 cents per share, down 20.8%, and for Lowe's, 56 cents per share, down 16.4%. Meanwhile, cabinet maker American Woodmark Corp. (NASDAQ: AMWD), for whom Home Depot and Lowe's are major distributors, is also expected to report lower earnings: 11 cents per share, down 67.6%.
The presidential campaigns have prompted much discussion of energy policy and alternative energy sources. Some solar-energy-related concerns are scheduled to report this week, and expectations seem to be high. Trina Solar Ltd. (NYSE: TSL) is expected to report 81 cents per share earnings, up 67.9%; ReneSola Ltd. (NYSE: SOL) is expected to post earnings of 32 cents per share, up 62.5%; and Suntech Power Holdings Co. (NYSE: STP) is expected to have earnings of 32 cents per share, up 21.9%. Even China Sunergy Co. Ltd. (NASDAQ: CSUN) is expected to have swung to a profit of 3 cents per share, from a per-share loss of 14 cents a year ago.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: American International Group, Pacific Sunwear, FedEx and Cheniere Energy were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Goldman downgraded American International Group (NYSE: AIG) to Neutral from Buy as they expect market concerns regarding balance sheet pressures and dilutive capital raises to pressure shares.
Citigroup downgraded shares of Pacific Sunwear (NASDAQ: PSUN) to Sell from Buy as they believe Q1 trends are disappointing following the comp results.
Morgan Keegan downgraded FedEx (NYSE: FDX) to Market Perform from Outperform citing the uncertainty related to fuel prices and the economy. RBC
Capital cut Cheniere Energy (NYSE: LNG) to Underperform from Outperform citing the corrected 2007 10K which indicates increased liquidity concerns.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Oppenheimer cut Navios Maritime (NYSE: NM) to Perform from Outperform.
Credit Suisse lowered TAL International Group (NYSE: TAL) to Neutral from Outperform.
Vital Signs (NASDAQ: VITL) was downgraded at Piper to Neutral from Buy.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: The Brokers and Asset Managers sector, Pacific Sunwear and Metabasis Therapeutics were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Goldman upgraded the Brokers and Asset Management sector to Attractive from Neutral as they believe an inflection point has been reached for stocks with minimal credit exposure, or where exposure is marked to market. Goldman expects the problem to shift to regional banks and specialty finance from brokers. As such, Goldman upgraded American Express (NYSE: AXP), Metlife (NYSE: MET), Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE: BK), Franklin Resources (NYSE: BEN), Janus Capital (NYSE: JNS) and NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX) to Buy from Neutral.
Wachovia upgraded Pacific Sunwear (NASDAQ: PSUN) to Outperform from Market Perform based on valuation, merchandising improvements, operating efficiencies, favorable product mix, and reductions in underperforming categories.
Rodman & Renshaw raised Metabasis (NASDAQ: MBRX) to Outperform from Market Perform on valuation given the potential for MB07803.
OTHER UPGRADES:
HSBC raised Novartis (NYSE: NVS) to Neutral from Underweight.
UBS (NYSE: UBS) was upgraded at Morgan Stanley to Equal Weight from Underweight.
With recession fears, housing market worries and credit concerns, retailers have been facing tough times, especially during the holiday winter season of December and January when sales came with weak numbers. But on the heels of these disappointing results, retailers got a beam of hope as February's sales numbers showed a surprising increase.
Encouraging news for retailers showing a rebound in consumer spending during the past month came after world's largest retailer Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) announced a rise of 2.6% for its February same-store sales. The company said that its same-store sales during the period were helped by strong gains from gas, food and flat-panel TVs. Analysts were expecting the retailer show an increase of 1.1% for its same-store sales, according to Thomson Financial.
Among other retailers that showed a rebound in February sales were Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ: COST) and Saks Inc. (NYSE: SKS), both of which reported stronger-than-expected gains. Apparel retailers Pacific Sunwear of California Inc. (NASDAQ: PSUN) also reported earnings results exceeding estimates of 6% sales growth last month.
For Limited Brands Inc. (NYSE: LTD), though, February didn't come with positive results. The company stated that higher energy and food prices put pressure on consumers who focused on necessities.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Motorola, Paccar, Pacific Sunwear, Talbots and RightNow Tech were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Oppenheimer upgraded shares of Motorola Inc. (NYSE: MOT) to Buy from Neutral on valuation, and is positive on the company's free cash flow generation.
Wachovia raised Paccar Inc. (NASDAQ: PCAR) estimates to Market Perform from Underperform based on better-than-expected European performance.
Citigroup upgraded shares of Pacific Sunwear (NASDAQ: PSUN) to Buy from Hold as they believe the demo division divestiture and improving product execution in core PacSun stores could drive accelerating EPS growth.
Citigroup also upgraded shares of Talbots Inc. (NYSE: TLB) to Hold from Sell on valuation but remains concerned about the company's long-term outlook.
Roth Capital upgraded RightNow Technologies (NASDAQ: RNOW) to Buy from Hold, as they are encouraged by RNOW's Q3 results and raised guidance and believes the worst is behind the company.
OTHER UPGRADES:
Goldman added Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) to its Conviction Buy List.
Thomas Weisel upgraded Akamai (NADAQ: AKAM) to Overweight from Market Weight.
Lehman upgraded Harley Davidson (NYSE: HOG) to Equal Weight from Underweight.
The Wall Street Journal's "Numbers Guy" takes a look at the issue of counterfeiting of luxury goods, a major thorn in the side of such couturiers as Coach (NYSE: COH) and Gucci. According to The Numbers Guy, "Washington business groups such as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the International Anticounterfeiting Coalition calculate that global counterfeit sales equal $600 billion to $650 billion a year -- numbers parroted in news releases by companies claiming to fight piracy. They build on the often-cited claim that counterfeit goods represent 5% to 7% of all world trade."
The problems with this statistic are twofold: First, it's hard to get accurate data on the operations of organized crime. Secondly, even if we do know how many knock-offs are being sold, it's hard to say how much of that is actually detracting from the sales of the high-fashion labels: Is someone who buys a $10 pair of "Gucci" sunglasses from a street vendor really buying those instead of $300 Gucci sunglasses? Or is that sale instead coming at the expense of less expensive retailers like PacSun (NASDAQ: PSUN) or even Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT)?
It's unclear how much illegal knock-offs are really hurting designers, but there's another issue that definitely is hurting them and, for now at least, it's legal: lower-budget knock-offs, perfectly legal because there's no logo, of runway couture, often before it even hits stores.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: McAfee (MFE), Wabtec Corp (WAB), Pacific Sunwear (PSUN), Aeropostale (ARO) and Amdocs (DOX) were today's noteworthy initiations:
McAfee Inc (NYSE: MFE) was initiated with an Accumulate rating at ThinkEquity, as the firm is positive on the company's competitive positioning in security, refocused business and streamlined operations.
JP Morgan initiated shares of Wabtec Corp (NYSE: WAB) with an Overweight rating, as the firm believes Wabtec's strong market presence should support 22% and 12% EPS growth in 2007 and 2008.
Nollenberger feels that the core PacSun concept is challenged to re-establish a niche in the competitive teen marketplace, and initiated shares of Pacific Sunwear (NASDAQ: PSUN) with a Neutral rating and $22 target.
Nollenberger also initiated shares of Aeropostale (NYSE: AEO) with a Buy rating and $49 target and recommends buying the stock into back to school.
Cantor initiated shares of Amdocs (NYSE: DOX) with a Hold rating and $37 target on valuation...
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Tektronix, Inc (TEK), GameStop Corp (GME) PrivateBancorp, Inc (PVTB), Quebecor World Inc (IQW) and CheckFree Corp (CKFR) were today's more noteworthy upgrades:
JP Morgan upgraded shares of Tektronix (NYSE: TEK) to Overweight from Underweight citing improving sector fundamentals.
JP Morgan also raised GameStop (NYSE: GME) to Overweight from Neutral based on the May sales data.
Oppenheimer upgraded PrivateBancorp (NASDAQ: PVTB) to Neutral from Sell based on valuation.
BMO Capital raised Quebecor World (NYSE: IQW) to Market Perform from Underperform on valuation.
CheckFree (NASDAQ: CKFR) was assumed with a Sector Outperformer from Sector Performer at CIBC citing a favorable risk/reward, solid secular underlying trends, and overblown concerns for its rating...
OTHER UPGRADES:
Symantec Corp (NASDAQ: SYMC) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Merck & Co (MRK), Intersil Corp (ISIL), Nautilus Group (NLS) and Pacific Sunwear (PSUN) were some of today's more noteworthy upgrades:
Merck & Co (NYSE: MRK ) was upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman Sachs to reflect the company's continued revenue strength and raised guidance. They believe strong execution continues.
JP Morgan upgraded Intersil Corp NASDAQ: ISIL) to Overweight from Neutral based on improving fundamentals.
Matrix USA upgraded shares of Nautilus Group (NYSE: NLS) to Hold from Strong Sell after this week's sell-off.
Pacific Sunwear of California (NASDAQ: PSUN) was added to Freidman Billing's Top Picks List, believing the turnaround is taking hold following strong March comps.
OTHER UPGRADES:
Goldman added L-3 Communications Hlds (NYSE: LLL) to its Conviction Buy List and raised its target to $105 from $95.
McCormick Corp (NYSE: MKC) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wachovia citing core performance in both Industrial and Consumer, including a nominal boost in long-term growth outlook.
Bear Stearns upgraded shares of Ventana Medical Systems (NASDAQ: VMSI) to Outperform from Peer Perform, citing the company's solid base business outlook and Symphony potential.
Piper Jaffray upgraded Ocwen Financial (NYSE: OCN) to Outperform from Market Perform.
JP Morgan upgraded TJX Cos (NYSE: TJX) to Neutral from Underweight expecting merchandising initiatives and marketing spending to drive growth.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Starbucks Corp (SBUX), Southwest Airlines Co (LUV), Pacific Sunwear (PSUN) and Molson Coors Brewing Co (TAP) were just some of today's notable upgrades:
Goldman Sachs added Starbucks Corp (NASDAQ: SBUX) to its Conviction Buy List citing valuation and expectations for margin improvement.
Southwest Airlines Co (NYSE: LUV) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Raymond James.
Roth Capital upgraded Pacific Sunwear (NASDAQ: PSUN) to Buy from Hold as they believe positive momentum is beginning to build.
Molson Coors Brewing (NYSE: TAP) was upgraded to Peer Perform from Underperform at Bear Stearns.
OTHER UPGRADES:
ThinkEquity upgraded WebEx Communications (NASDAQ: WEBX) to Source of Funds from Sell following the acquisition by Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO).
XL Capital Ltd (NYSE: XL) was upgraded to Strong Buy from Strong Sell as the firm believes an unusually low number of natural disasters is causing a sharply positive reversal in fundamental trends.
Soleil upgraded shares of Doral Financial Corp (NYSE: DRL) to Hold from Sell to reflect the recent sale of the company's New York branches and an improved outlook for the Puerto Rican economy.
Bear Stearns upgraded Roche Holding Ltd (OTC: RHHBY) to Outperform from Peer Perform and Anheuser-Busch Cos (NYSE: BUD) to Outperform from Peer Perform.
Countrywide Financial (NYSE: CFC) was upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at Keefe Bruyette.
Landstar Systems Inc (NASDAQ: LSTR) to hold Q1 mid-quarter update conference call at 2pm.
Federal Reserve St Louis Bank President William Poole to speak at 11am, Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh to speak at 2pm.
Tuesday March 6
International Game Technology (NYSE: IGT), a "global company specializing in the design, development, manufacturing, distribution and sales of computerized gaming machines and systems products," to hold its annual shareholder meeting at 1pm.
Wednesday March 7
Saks Inc (NYSE: SKS) to hold Q4 earnings conference call at 10am.
PDUFA date for Abbott Laboratories (NYSE: ABT) Humira, a Tumor Necrosis Factor blocker, which is used to reduce the signs and symptoms of arthritis.
PDUFA date for Merck and Co Incs (NYSE: MRK) Janumet, a treatment for Type 2 Diabetes.
Thursday March 8
Monthly Same Store Sales to be reported by Wal-Mart Stores (NYSE: WMT), Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT), Aeropostale Inc (NYSE: ARO), Kohl's Corporation (NYSE: KSS), Pacific Sunwear of California Inc (NASDAQ: PSUN), Abercrombie & Fitch Co (NYSE: ANF), Gap Inc (NYSE: GPS) Nordstrom Inc (NYSE: JWN) and J.C. Penney Co Inc (NYSE: JCP).
Friday March 9
PDUFA date for Eli Lilly and Company's (NYSE: LLY) Cymbalta, a treatment for depression.