"We sense a turn for the better coming in the oil sector," says Peter Way who tracks 'big money' investors for his Block Trader Oil & Gas Report. Here's his look at the "big block" traders.
"When we use the hedging analysis employed in our stock price forecasts, there are significant differences between some adjacent futures expirations. Here's the current picture:
"Front month (November) hedging suggests likely near-term higher prices. But the December contracts are likely to continue the past 3-month price decline – briefly.
"After that we could see crude rise over a few months into the $115-125 area or even higher, providing a bullish backdrop for most energy stocks. We sense a turn for the better coming in this sector.
"Several issues are selling at attractive prices now. Among major integrated producers, the standout prospect among the big oils is Petrochina (NYSE: PTR).
China Petroleum (NYSE: SNP) has already announced that its profits were down 71% in the first half. Now PetroChina (NYSE: PTR) is getting ready to report a drop in its profits.
The culprit is China's energy policy, which is hurting investors in the Chinese oil industry. According to the AP, "While other global oil giants are reporting record profits, Chinese government price controls prevent PetroChina and other domestic refiners from passing on higher costs for crude oil to consumers." It is an excellent reason for investors to avoid these stocks.
The central government control of oil profits is a fine example of why China should not have taken many of its large companies private. China needs to keep gas and diesel prices down to control inflation and offer cheap fuel to maintain transportation costs of exports at low levels.
With oil trading around $120 a barrel, the oil refiners in China could actually swing to losses in the second half. China is driving investors out of its most important corporations. PetroChina already trades near a 52-week low. That is likely to get worse.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
Over the summer, my twelve-year-old son proclaimed that he was going to be the world's first zillionaire! I had to explain to him that if he achieved that lofty goal he would be the only one because that is more capital than exists today; unless he meant Zimbabwean dollars. I suggested that long before he owned the whole planet there might be a few objections here and there.
This got me thinking about my pal Warren, a frequent topic of conversation in business and investment circles, and how he amassed such a great fortune over the past five decades.
He is a long way from owning the world but he has started to expand his horizons to the international scene. He has bought and sold PetroChina (NYSE: PTR) for a tidy $4 billion dollar profit and he has been hedging against the dollar for the last few years with mixed results. He bought an Israeli metal fabricator and he has splashed about in Europe and Asia.
If you read Berkshire Hathaway's (NYSE: BRK.B) annual reports you will find the chairmans letters, where Buffett discusses both his successes and his failures. It is his failures and the fact that he does not make the right call every time that I wish to draw attention today. BloggingStocks promotes much debate, sometimes name calling, and sometimes worse. However, it is important to understand that even the best investors make mistakes.
The stock market was down yesterday and it is down again today. Bearish sentiment is roaming through Wall Street right now, so I thought I would look back on another occasion when the market was going through similar turmoil and I wrote about the following eight stocks, which I thought would be "safe havens" in such a storm.
Six of the eight did well and two did not, and of course one of those two was a disaster. Among the losers, I do not think anyone is fretting about UPS, which is still one of the few triple-A rated companies along with Berkshire Hathaway. It has been well reported that the slowing economy and higher fuel prices have been the major culprits affecting UPS's earnings. In the case of WaMu, it's demise has also been well reported, but at the time I recommended it WaMu had a stellar reputation of growth and high yield for over two decades. There is no hiding, it turned out to be a lousy pick and an ANTI-SAFE Haven
Washington Mutual(NYSE: WM) closed Monday at $4.21 down from $45.50; a 98% loss.
Fortunately the remaining six picks have done very, very well. If you had bought the pool, the average gain over the last two years would have been 7.14%. Adding the dividends over the two years would have raised this to 13.14%.
PetroChina (NYSE: PTR) closed at $132.04 Friday. WTI Crude Futures are recently up 1.03% to $116.39 according to Bloomberg. PTR over all option implied volatility of 40 is below its 26-week average of 46 according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing movement.
CNOOC Ltd (NYSE: CEO) closed at $133.78 Friday. CEO overall option implied volatility of 43 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional risk.
Canadian Natural (NYSE: CNQ), an oil and natural gas production company, closed at $72.72 Friday. CNQ September option implied volatility of 54 is above its 26-week average of 45, suggesting larger price movement.
Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com
The Summer Olympics are only days away and what the Chinese had hoped would be their coming out party to celebrate all that is good, may instead become quite the opposite.
The air pollution in Beijing is so bad that even reducing automobile traffic by 50% has not helped much. China is now considering a 90% reduction according to news reports. Athletes are staying in other countries until the games begin so that they may train somewhere they can breathe. There are also reports that many athletes involved in stamina events will be forced to wear masks to protect themselves from the particulates in the air.
Now Reuters is reporting that "Some International Olympic Committee officials cut a deal to let China block sensitive websites despite promises of unrestricted access, a senior IOC official admitted on Wednesday."
So the world media will not be able to do their jobs in a manner they are accustomed to. But who are we actually referring to? Western media, of course, because half the world still limits access to information to some degree.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Georgia Gulf, Sohu.com and I-flow were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Citigroup downgraded Georgia Gulf (NYSE: GGC) to Sell from Hold to reflect the deteriorating fundamentals in North American housing, and their belief that the company is increasingly likely to break its debt covenant ratio.
Deutsche Bank downgraded shares of Sohu.com (NASDAQ: SOHU) to Hold from Buy on valuation and expects 2009 growth to be modest.
Piper cut I-Flow (NASDAQ: IFLO) to Sell from Neutral following the weak Q1 report and guidance.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Morgan Stanley downgraded Coca-Cola Femsa (NYSE: KOF) to Equal Weight from Overweight.
Goldman removed Teva Pharma (NASDAQ: TEVA) from its Conviction Buy List.
Aqua America (NYSE: WTR) was cut to Market Perform from Outperform at Wachovia.
JP Morgan lowered PetroChina (NYSE: PTR) to Underweight from Neutral.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Sunoco, Ryanair and HSBC Holdings were today's noteworthy downgrades:
JP Morgan downgraded Sunoco (NYSE: SUN) to Underweight from Neutral citing expected margin pressure due to high leverage to sweet crude. Goldman also downgraded shares of Sunoco to Neutral from Buy.
Deutsche Bank downgraded shares of Ryanair (NASDAQ: RYAAY) to Sell from Hold as they believe the European airlines sector will trade well below book value until the companies deal with higher oil prices.
UBS cut HSBC (NYSE: HBC) to Neutral from Buy to reflect the potential for higher losses at the company's household unit and weak performance at its U.S. bank.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Broadpoint lowered MTS Medication (NYSE: MPP) to Neutral from Strong Buy.
HSBC cut Southern Peru Copper (NYSE: PCU) to Neutral from Overweight.
Goldman downgraded CNH Global (NYSE: CNH) to Neutral from Buy and PetroChina (PTR) to Sell from Buy.
Bank of America upgraded Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) to "buy" from "neutral" according toBriefing.com. The news service also reports that Citigroup downgraded PetroChina (NYSE: PTR) from "hold" to "sell."
ADC Telecom (NASDAQ: ADCT) was raised to "buy" at Deutsche Bank, according to24/7 Wall St. The financial website also reports that Cirrus Logic (NASDAQ: CRUS) was cut to "perform" from "outperform" at Oppenheimer.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
While the difference between the two companies remains slim, Exxon Mobil can now claim its position at the top thanks to a market cap of an amazing $455.8 billion, compared to PetroChina's market cap of "only" $453.1 billion. Since going public last November, shares of PetroChina have been in free fall, giving back 58% of its value.
The fall from grace for PetroChina is being linked to record high oil prices which put a squeeze on profit margins for the eight year old Chinese company. It has been a tough year for all Chinese stocks, which on average have dropped 25% so far in 2008. The recent run up in oil prices has also led to a slight drop in Exxon Mobil stock, but only a 3% pullback since the time of PetroChina's listing in November.
With reports all over the place yesterday that Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) was close to a deal with Tata Motors Ltd. (NYSE: TTM), it is no surprise the deal was announced this morning with Ford selling British automakers Jaguar and Land Rover to India's Tata for roughly $2 billion.
Comcast Corp. (NASDAQ: CMCSA) and Time Warner Cable Inc. (NYSE: TWC) are discussing a plan to fund a new wireless Internet venture that would be run by Sprint Nextel Corp. (NYSE: S) and Clearwire Corp. (NASDAQ: CLWR) and create a nationwide network using WiMax technology. This would provide faster wireless Web connection speeds for laptops and cell phones than the current networks, according to The Wall Street Journal.
Jabil Circuit may slip after the electronics maker cut its annual earnings guidance. Sprint stock is now up over 10% in premarket trading, while CLWR stock is up over 21%.
Motorola Inc. (NYSE: MOT) plans to separate its struggling handset business from its other operations. Caving to pressures from activist investor Carl Icahn to make changes, the AP reported that "Motorola said it will split the handset business from a separate company that will encompass its home and networks business, which sells TV set-top boxes and modems, and its enterprise mobility solutions, which sells computing and communications equipment to businesses." MOT stock is up over 5.7% in premarket trading.
Director and producer Steven Spielberg resigned his non-paying artistic director advisory role for the 2008 Summer Olympics Games in Beijing because he has become disenchanted with China's lack of effort to use its influence in Sudan to end violence in the Darfur region.
The Chinese want to be players on the world stage without accepting the responsibility that goes along with it, and that was not acceptable to Spielberg. There has been growing pressure around the world on the Chinese, who purchase most of Sudan's oil and sell them weapons, to exert political and economic pressure on the government of Sudan. While Spielberg is only one more voice in a long list condemning Chinese actions and the lack there of, he is a very prominent voice.
Governments, Olympic athletes, religious leaders and shareholders have been complaining that China was not doing enough, if anything to curb the violence. This was an issue with Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A) shareholders at their 2007 annual meeting. While stating that he sold off BRK's interest in PetroChina (NYSE: PTR) based on valuation, Warren Buffett was completely divested in a matter of months and the stock has fallen almost 40% from its highs.
Over the summer, my twelve-year-old son proclaimed that he was going to be the world's first zillionaire! I had to explain to him that if he achieved that lofty goal he would be the only one because that is more capital than exists today; unless he meant Zimbabwean dollars. I suggested that long before he owned the whole planet there might be a few objections here and there.
The stock market was down yesterday and it is down again today. Bearish sentiment is roaming through Wall Street right now, so I thought I would look back on another occasion when the market was going through similar turmoil and I wrote about the following eight stocks, which I thought would be "safe havens" in such a storm.
PetroChina
The Summer Olympics are only days away and what the Chinese had hoped would be their coming out party to celebrate all that is good, may instead become quite the opposite.
PetroChina
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Director and producer 
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