The second half of the calendar year has begun, and earnings return to the spotlight this week. As usual, Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) is among the first of the S&P 500 to report quarterly results. For the second quarter in which Alcoa agreed to sell its wire harness and electrical distribution business and its fastening systems business expanded into Morocco, analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect the New York-based aluminum producer to report swinging to a net loss of $0.34 per share from a profit of $0.66 per share in the year-ago period. Second quarter revenue is expected to have fallen 48.3% to $3.9 billion. The full-year forecast is currently for a loss of $1.04 per share and revenue of $16.7 billion (-38.0%). Alcoa has missed expectations in the past three quarters, by as much as 17 cents per share. The long-term EPS growth forecast is 10.0%, which is better than the sector average. Alcoa slashed its dividend earlier this year, and the First Call consensus recommendation remains to hold AA. However, TheStreet.com recommends it as an against-the-grain pick. At $9.86, shares are down 12.4% since the beginning of the year, and recently have been bumping up against the 200-day moving average.

A new earnings reporting season kicks off this coming week with the quarterly report from Alcoa, the first Dow Jones industrial to report. But investors looking for early signs about the first quarter will be disappointed in what they see from the aluminum producer, assuming that analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters are neither too optimistic or too pessimistic about those results.

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao's comments on Friday were blunt and pointed. In effect, the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve absolutely must assure China on the safety of its investment in the United States. If we read between the lines, Mr. Wen told the U.S. that it must shore up its financial mess and that China will not stand for any more uncertainty in the U.S. banking sector.

The Chinese government is the largest holder of U.S. public debt. Officials in China are becoming increasingly concerned about the sharp increase in U.S. government spending. They worry it will lead to inflation and the collapse of the U.S. dollar.

Here's a look at what's on the economic calendar for the week of January 5, 2009:

• Construction spending (Nov. 2008): Monday, 10:00 AM
• Ford Motor Co. U.S. sales (Dec. 2008): Monday, 1:00 PM
• New motor vehicle sales (Dec. 2008): Monday, 4:00 PM
• Factory orders (Nov. 2008): Tuesday, 10:00 AM
• Pending home sales (Nov. 2008): Tuesday, 10:00 AM
• ISM Non-Manufacturing Survey (Dec. 2008): Tuesday, 10:00 AM
• Monster Employment Index (Dec. 2008): Wednesday, 6:00 AM
• Challenger job-cut announcement (Dec. 2008): Wednesday, 7:30 AM
• Public debt (Dec. 2008): Wednesday, 3:00 PM
• Consumer credit (Nov. 2008): Thursday, 3:00 PM
• Employment situation (Dec. 2008): Friday, 8:30 AM
• Wholesale trade (Nov. 2008): Friday, 10:00 AM

For expectations from some of this week's earnings releases, see The week in preview: Family Dollar, Bed Bath & Beyond, KB Home, and others.

Because so much of the recent market volatility has been tied to announcements of employment numbers, consumer credit, and other such economic data, here's a look at the schedule for some of the economic data to be released the week of November 3, 2008.

• ISM manufacturing survey (Oct. 2008): Monday, 10:00 AM
• Construction spending (Sept. 2008): Monday, 10:00 AM
• Ford Motor Co. sales (Oct. 2008): Monday, 1:00 PM
• New motor vehicle sales (Oct. 2008): Monday, 4:00 PM
• Factory orders (Sept. 2008): Tuesday, 10:00 AM
• Challenger job cut announcement (Oct. 2008): Wednesday, 7:30 AM
• ISM nonmanufacturing survey (Oct. 2008): Wednesday, 10:00 AM
• Monster employment index (Oct. 2008): Thursday, 6:00 AM
• Preliminary productivity and costs (Q3): Thursday, 8:30 AM
• Public debt (Oct. 2008): Thursday, 3:00 PM
• Employment situation (Oct. 2008): Friday, 8:30 AM
• Wholesale trade (Sept. 2008): Friday, 10:00 AM
• Pending home sales (Sept. 2008): Friday, 10:00 AM
• Consumer credit outstanding (Sept. 2008): Friday, 3:00 PM

For a look at expectations for this coming week's earnings releases, see The week in preview: Expectations remain high for energy and oil.

Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) kicks off the new earnings seasons when it reports third quarter results on Tuesday. The Pittsburgh-based aluminum producer, which celebrated its 120th anniversary with the launch of its website, is expected to post a profit of 54 cents per share, down 15.6% from the same quarter of last year, on revenue of $7.2 billion, down 2.1%. While Alcoa has tended to fall short of estimates in recent quarters, in the second quarter it did offer a positive surprise of almost 3%. Its long-term earnings per share growth forecast is 14.8%, a little less than the S&P 500, and analysts polled by Thomson Financial on average recommend buying Alcoa, and have for more than 90 days. Shares reached a new 52-week low last week, and are down 48.9% from a year ago.

General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) is also expected to report a slip in earnings this week. Analysts anticipate that the conglomerate will post a third-quarter profit of 45 cents per share, down just 6.3% from a year ago, on revenue of $47.7 billion, which is up 12.1%. GE has tended to eke out small positive surprises in recent quarters, by less than 1% in the second quarter. GE's long-term earnings per share growth forecast is only 11.0%, which is less than the sector average and the S&P 500. The consensus recommendation has recently swung to hold GE, but Warren Buffett has bought in to the tune of $3 billion. GE also reached a new 52-week low last week as the markets tumbled. GE shares are down 48.1% from a year ago.