Merrill upgraded Kraft Foods (NYSE: KFT) to Buy from Neutral citing progress in the company's turnaround plan, execution, and 2009 earnings growth.
Thomas Weisel raised Express Scripts (NASDAQ: ESRX) to Overweight from Market Weight and believes the company's core business remains strong and that valuation is attractive.
Friedman Billings upgraded shares of Symantec (NASDAQ: SYMC) to Outperform from Market Perform on valuation after checks indicated the company should meet Q2 expectations.
NeuStar (NSR) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Baird.
Friedman Billings downgraded shares of Zions Bancorp (NASDAQ: ZION) to Market Perform from Outperform and lowered its target to $33 from $43 following the company's Q3 results, as they believe near-term credit trends and concerns surrounding its securities portfolio will limit upside. Shares were also downgraded at JP Morgan to Neutral from Overweight due to deteriorating credit trends.
Banc of America cut Monster (NASDAQ: MNST) to Neutral from Buy to reflect a lack of margin stability and their belief consensus estimates remain too high.
Barclays downgraded Avis Budget Group (NYSE: CAR) to Equal Weight from Overweight citing the global economic slowdown and refinancing risk.
Luxottica was also downgraded at HSBC to Neutral from Overweight.
JP Morgan cut AuthenTec (NASDAQ: AUTH) to Underweight from Neutral.
Analyst initiations:
Janney Montgomery believes Gladstone Capital's (NASDAQ: GLAD) management team and lower portfolio investment risk profile warrant a premium valuation. The firm started shares with a Buy rating and $13 target.
CommVault (NASDAQ: CVLT) was initiated with a Buy rating and $14 target at Cantor, as the firm finds the stock attractively valued given its secular growth rate potential.
KeyBanc is positive on Papa John's (NASDAQ: PZZA) management team, growth potential, cost initiatives, and differentiation. Shares were assumed with a Buy rating and $30 target.
Arris (NASDAQ: ARRS) was initiated at Jefferies with a Hold rating and $7 target.
Rigel Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: RIGL) was initiated at Banc of America with a Neutral rating and $21 target.
Morgan Stanley started Hansen Natural (NASDAQ: HANS) with an Equal Weight rating.
Domino's Pizza, Inc. (NYSE: DPZ) saw its Q3 profit drop by a staggering 55% as reported this morning. Domino's management explained the root causes as weak consumer spending added with cost pressures. Cost pressures? Apparently, either the cost of making pizza has changed big-time in the last three months, or gas prices and commodity food product prices have gone up. I'll take the latter -- you?
For the Q3 period, Domino's net income dropped to $10.99 million or $0.17 per share from $24.5 million or $0.39 per share in the year-ago quarter. Most analysts expecting about $0.23 EPS. The food company's quarterly revenue rose 3.2% to over $337 million as international sales became the star of the quarter. CEO David Brandon suggested that trying to mix increasing prices with declining traffic was a challenge in the quarter. Also mentioned was ... wait for it ... higher food costs. Milk prices (cheese) indeed went up, but at the butt-end of Q3, not during the whole period. Could this be an excuse?
While weak domestic consumer spending hampered sales, international sales did just the opposite, increasing 8.3% for the quarter. Have Domino's done enough in the Q3 period to goose more sales from customers, if that was even possible? I'll say that Papa John's International (NYSE: PZZA) advertised like crazy in my area this past quarter -- on television, newspapers and in other areas. I saw next to nothing from Domino's. I wonder if the company is masking "declining sales" with "losing business to the competition?"
If you're a fan of using insider sentiment to predict the future course of a stock, you may want to stay far away from Papa John's (NASDAQ: PZZA).
A piece in this week's Barron's takes a look at the pattern of insider selling at the company. The long list of form 4's for the company's page in the SEC's Edgar Database tells the story: Shares of Papa John's have been weak performers of late, but that hasn't stopped founder John Schnatter from selling $8.5 million worth of stock on Tuesday and Wednesday of last week alone. Of course, the company explained that the sales were motivated by estate planning and diversification needs, but would he really be dumping if he thought the stock was about to go on a run?
In addition to the sales, Schnatter has also recently reduced his role with the company. He has gone from "executive chairman" to "non-employee founder chairman," and is now receiving stock options in lieu of a cash salary. He will continue to act as a spokesman in the company's ads.
Many restaurant companies have struggled as their entrepreneurial founders reduced their roles and eventually left. Wendy's (NYSE: WEN) is the most high-profile example of this, having struggled mightily since founder Dave Thomas's passing. A video posted on YouTube describes Schnatter's journey from a tiny restaurant to a huge franchise and, while less iconic, it would not be a stretch to suspect a similar fate for Papa John's.
Taken at face value, the insider sales are not a reason to go bearish on Papa John's, but Schnatter's reduced role in the company he founded could be a serious risk factor.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Papa John's (PZZA), Wynn Resorts (WYNN), SourceForge (LNUX), Cathay Pacific (CPCAY) and Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG) were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Matrix downgraded shares of Papa John's (NASDAQ: PZZA) to Hold from Strong Buy to reflect minimal improvement to fundamentals and negative free cash flow trends.
Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ: WYNN) was downgraded to Peer Perform from Outperform based on valuation as the firm believes shares fully reflect solid Las Vegas & Macau fundamentals and the company's development pipeline.
SourceForge (NASDAQ: LNUX) was cut to Underperform from Market perform at JMP Securities, with a $3 target, following the disappointing results.
Merrill Lynch downgraded Cathay Pacific (OTC: CPCAY) to Sell from Buy on valuation.
Arthur J. Gallagher (NYSE: AJG) was cut to Underperform from Peer Perform at Bear Stearns as they believe margin expansion will be lower than expected, softening insurance pricing will impact organic growth, and cites managements acquisition desires over aggressive repurchases...
Apparently all those newspaper articles telling Americans we are fat are beginning to have an effect
. For two consecutive quarters, Papa John's International, Inc. (Nasdaq: PZZA) has posted decreases in domestic sales at both company-owned restaurants and franchised locations. Recently released earnings report for 2Q 2007 stated U.S. pizza sales at Papa John's restaurants declined 1%. That's not enough to cause undue worry, but the company is also being squeezed by rising labor, utility, distribution and commodity costs. Revenues were up 6% to $256.3 million and EPS were $0.23, above analysts' expectations. But that amount is still half of what the company posted in 2Q 2006. In what is beginning to look like a disturbing pattern, revenues from the previous two quarters have increased while EPS has declined by 33%. In 2Q 2007, revenues increased due only to the acquisitions of 73 new locations. There was NO organic growth.
Figures for 2Q 2007 are not representative as they include restructuring and consolidation costs of BIBP Commodities, a cheese purchasing company Papa John's now owns and which it purchased in hopes of eventually realizing lower prices on dairy commodities. Operating income for the quarter was reported as up only if costs of BIBP were excluded.
The picture is a bit better for Papa John's international market. Good thing the Chinese don't mind getting fat. Despite the fact the international sales rose 2%, this segment still yielded operating losses though the losses of $2 million for 2Q are narrowing when compared to previous quarters. Papa John's has opened 8 new locations in South Korea and China, the company's fastest growing markets. A big, multi-year expansion plan calls for opening 100 new international locations per year for the next nine years. At least 369 of those new locations will be in Korea and China. Such expansion, however, does open Papa John's to financial problems associated with fluctuations in currency exchange rates.
Papa John's repurchased $10 million in stock during 2Q as part of a longer and larger $675 million buyback program. CEO Nigel Travis remains optimistic that sales and earnings will improve and has raised FY guidance from $1.52-$1.58 to $1.56-$1.60. This is good news. Let's celebrate with pizza.
In addition to Wendy's (NYSE: WEN) management's recent hiring of JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM) and Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH) to help review strategic options for the company, the fast-food restaurant has decided to throw its hat into the breakfast ring by signing an exclusive deal with Proctor & Gamble (NYSE: PG). The deal allows Wendy's to be the only major fast-food restaurant chain to offer a proprietary blend of Folgers Gourmet Selections coffee and will become part of Wendy's new breakfast menu.
What's that you say, "Breakfast menu?"
Yes folks, Wendy's just isn't for lunch or dinner anymore (or dessert – mmmm Frosty's). You can now eat Wendy's for every meal of the day. By the end 2007, Wendy's expects to have 20-30% of its North American restaurants serve breakfast along with premium Folgers coffee.
Wendy's is definitely throwing its hat into a very crowded ring. The fast-food breakfast market is growing at almost three times the rate of the overall market, with Burger King (NYSE: BKC), McDonald's (NYSE: MCD), Arby's, a unit of Triarc Co. (NYSE: TRY), Carl's Jr and Hardee's, both owned by CKE Restaurants (NYSE: CKR) and even Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX) offering similar on-the-go breakfasts to consumers. Papa John's (NASDAQ: PZZA), Dunkin Donuts and Chick-fil-A are planning new breakfast products as well. What's going to be so different to make me go to Wendy's?
When looking at the coffee aspect, one has to recall last year's Canadian Business magazine taste test between McDonald's "Café Roast" and Starbucks coffees. I'm sure all the companies I mentioned above serve some brand of coffee. Wendy's is really walking into a competitively caffeinated situation. We also can't forget about
Seattle
's "Sexpresso" baristas, but that's competition on a different level.
Where do you go to get your morning cup o' joe? And would the chance to have Folgers Gourmet change your mind?
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Today's noteworthy upgrades include Papa John's Int'l, Inc (PZZA), ExpressJet Holdings, Inc (XJT), Nvidia Corp (NVDA),Georgia Gulf Corp (GGC) and MasterCard (MA):
Following Q1 results, Oppenheimer upgraded shares of Papa John's Int'l, Inc (NASDAQ: PZZA) to Buy from Neutral, citing better-than-expected revenue growth, improved margins and acquisitions.
Soleil upgraded shares of ExpressJet Holdings (NYSE: XJT) to Hold from Sell with a $7 target due to the likely absence of any real news until at least August.
Deutsche Bank assumed shares of Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) with a Buy, up from Hold, as the firm believes Vista will accelerate NVDA's growth rates making their 2008 estimates conservative.
Citigroup upgraded shares of Georgia Gulf Corp (NYSE: GGC) to Buy from Sell based on an improved near-term outlook.
MasterCard (NYSE: MA) was upgraded to Hold from Sell at Stifel based on the lenders impressive Q1 results and pricing power...
Tonight Jim Cramer took a page from a TV man oh-so-like himself and kicked it up a notch! For his second feature stock on CNBC's MAD MONEY, Cramer got hot and bothered over Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG). What about pizza? Cramer says it's "out," after all, look at California Pizza Kitchen, Inc. (NASDAQ:CPKI), which is down 10% at $28.35 after-hours because of cautioning that its outlook wasn't quite so tasty despite a great third quarter. When pizza is out? Fast Mexican food is in.
See, Cramer isn't just an investor. He's also a food critic. And this is a case where the food critic and the investor can come together for "burrito investing." Cramer said he was in denial that pizza sales were down and he thought it was maybe just a Domino's Pizza, Inc. (NYSE:DPZ) issue, but he was wrong. Domino's had had same store sales declines since Q4 of last year. Before Cramer even mentioned CMG the stock gapped over 2% to $58.00 in after-hours trading on NYSE/Archipelago trading.
Cramer calls burritos "the new pizza." Stay away from names like Papa John's Int'l, Inc. (NASDAQ:PZZA), says Cramer, as people are leaving for "Taco John's." Also of note in the hot Mexican trend is Jack in the Box Inc. (NYSE:JBX) for its Qdoba Mexican Grills (3% of JBX business), which he said that the place wasn't bad. Cramer said he is hesitant to be a BUY BUY BUY, but it has come down a bit. Cramer said that salsa is now the number 1 condiment in America. Cramer said you may never replace pizza in America, but investors need to be in burritos as people are eating more Mexican food than pizza. CMG & JBX are trumping PZZA & DPZ.
Jon Ogg is a partner in 24/7 Wall St., LLC; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.
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Analyst upgrades:
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Tonight Jim Cramer took a page from a 
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