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Qwest's Q3: Who isn't bearish on this stock?

Qwest Communications (NYSE: Q), a telecommunication concern which counts Verizon (NYSE: VZ), AT&T (NYSE: T) and Sprint Nextel (NYSE: S) as esteemed colleagues, issued its Q3 numbers on Wednesday. What do they tell us? Well, for the most part, the numbers, and perhaps more importantly to some extent, the price action, tell us that we should stay away from this low single-digit stock.

Revenues went down roughly 2%. Earnings per diluted share, which came in at $0.09, took a huge dive of 93% on a GAAP basis, but this was driven by a significant tax benefit booked in Q3 2007. Looking at adjusted EBITDA, we see that the drop wasn't so large: Qwest posted $1.08 billion for this metric versus $1.15 billion in the year-ago period. Management didn't see fit to beat expectations, as the call was for $0.10 per share.

However, the company delivered $330 million in adjusted free cash flow, which is representative of a flat growth rate. Hey, the fact that free-cash generation didn't really go down is pretty cool in this case. Management promoted its shareholder-friendly initiatives of dividends and share buybacks in the release. Unfortunately, they aren't enough to bring me to the table where this stock is concerned.

Continue reading Qwest's Q3: Who isn't bearish on this stock?

Before the bell: Futures seesaw ahead of Fed decision; KFT, PG, SNE, GM, MSFT, GOOG ...

U.S. stock futures declined Wednesday morning but then turned positive seesawed Wednesday morning, a day after one of the biggest day of gains on Wall Street that saw the Dow industrials end up 889 points and close above 9,000 again, as investors awaited the Federal Reserve decision on interest rates to be announced at 2:15 pm. Most are expecting the Fed to cut rates by at least half a point to 1%. Meanwhile, oil rebounded from a 17-month low to above $64 per barrel ahead of the weekly inventory report due out later today. Also, September durable goods orders will be released ahead of the opening bell.

Kraft Foods Inc. (NYSE: KFT) reported adjusted earnings of 44 cents per share, inline with estimates. Kraft also raised expectations for 2008 earnings.

Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) reported a 9% rise in both earnings and revenue, beating analyst estimates on both counts. P&G kept the same outlook.

Sony Corp. (NYSE: SNE) reported that quarterly profit plunged 72% due to a surging yen that wiped out profits from flat-panel TV and PlayStation 3 sales and revenue from the movie Hancock. This shouldn't have come as a surprise as last year the company slashed full year outlook.

Continue reading Before the bell: Futures seesaw ahead of Fed decision; KFT, PG, SNE, GM, MSFT, GOOG ...

Verizon: Good dividend stock (at a lower price)

Telecommunication concern Verizon (NYSE: VZ), whose competitors include AT&T (NYSE: T), Sprint Nextel (NYSE: S), and Qwest Communications (NYSE: Q), reported earnings for the third quarter on Monday, and investors could not have been happier. As Wall Street continued its painful bearish slide, shareholders of Verizon were bragging about the 10% rise in the company's stock price. Question is, should you be a buyer of Verizon's stock at this point?

The numbers were decent enough. According to the press release, earnings per share were $0.66. Management only succeeded at matching expectations for Q3, according to this earnings-preview piece by Brent Archer. Honestly, I was surprised at the big pop in the stock yesterday. Considering how badly the markets have been doing, and the fact that we're facing a global recession, I would have figured on a more muted response to Verizon's numbers. After all, if we are facing a tough recession (and I'm fully on board with that sentiment), what's going to happen to the growth rate of the FiOS product? That product is doing well, as are other parts of the Verizon portfolio, but I wouldn't have been a buyer into the stock's strength today. And I say that without a doubt.

But, with Verizon, there is that great dividend yield and cash-flow growth. Operational cash flow from continuing operations was up almost 6%, and capital expenditures decreased. That's great news for dividend investors, as more free cash was left over. I think the market looked at Verizon as being oversold and decided to buy in. The company seemed to have a good Q3, and I think long-term investors will definitely do well with the stock; in fact, the press release mentioned that management saw fit to increase its dividend 7% during the quarter, expressing confidence in the company's current business models. But I believe even longer-term thinkers would do well to wait for a pullback in the share price before either initiating a new position or adding to an existing holding. I simply think there was too much excitement around the stock after its report.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

Cramer on BloggingStocks: Worst-case scenario: Dow under 8400

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says without the Paulson plan, every component is in trouble. Let's take a look.

Without the Paulson plan, or if the plan is so watered down and delayed, I have been saying all bets are off and we could be in for a huge swoon. How huge?

I like to sit down and noodle on the actual components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average to give you a real sense of what can go wrong. And there is so much going wrong. The credit markets are vanishing, the earnings are vanishing and the only hope is a plan that ignites credit markets, forces money off the sidelines and gets this economy and the worldwide economy moving again.

Not long ago, I postulated that this market is literally repealing all of the moves since the Brazil-Russia-India-China emergence that gave us better markets to sell into than just the U.S. With the collapse of Chinese growth -- they have simply ceased to be importers since the summer -- the inflation in India, the war in Russia and a U.S.-led slowdown in Brazil (although that remains a robust market) BRIC is more like having a brick around your neck than a wind at your back.

Meanwhile, the peak in energy and the collapse of the financial system have left both of those groups in disarray with valuations simply too difficult to pin down, so you retreat to worst-case scenarios where you can at least find some terra firma -- mainly where stocks were last time things were this bad.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Worst-case scenario: Dow under 8400

Before the bell: WMI, VZ, BRK.A, UPS, GMT, AAPL, Q

U.S. stock futures were a little higher this morning following Friday's rally. Oil futures have been rising again due to the Russian-Georgian conflict and the dollar retracted from the five-month high set Friday. Global markets were mostly higher although China's hit a 19-month low.

Waste Management (NYSE: WMI) is expected to raise its unsolicited cash offer for rival Republic Services (NYSE: RSG) by nearly 10% to $6.73 billion, the Wall Street Journal reported.

Verizon Communications (NYSE: VZ) and two unions agreed on a new three-year contract Sunday, averting a possible strike of 65,000 workers. The new contract provides 10.5% wage increases and changes in retirement benefits.

Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A) reported an 8% decline in second-quarter profit after the market close Friday. The investment group attributed the decline to fewer insurance premiums and $1 billion in unrealized derivative losses.

Continue reading Before the bell: WMI, VZ, BRK.A, UPS, GMT, AAPL, Q

Early analyst calls (Q) (CIEN) (LLY)

UBS downgraded SunPower (NASDAQ:SPWR) to Neutral from Buy, according to Briefing.com. The news service also reports that Citigroup upgraded Qwest (NYSE:Q) to Buy from Hold and Morgan Keegan upgraded Ciena (NASDAQ:CIEN) to Outperform from Market Perform.

Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) was raised to Neutral at HSBC, according to 24/7 Wall St. The financial site also reports that American Electric Power (NYSE:AEP) was cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.

'Singular' values: A, C, F, K, M, N, Q, S, T

"One group of stocks that has always intrigued us are those whose symbols have one letter," notes George Putnam. The editor of The Turnaround Letter explains, "Odd as this idea may at first seem, it actually makes some sense for a deep value investor. These are often old-line companies with well-known brand names. In some cases the single letter symbols were awarded many decades ago."

After reviewing the 19 stocks with single letter symbols (7 are currently unused), Putnam offers six that he says, have been "beaten down pretty badly and now look particularly appealing."'

"Agilent Technologies (NYSE: A), which makes electronic and bio-analytic measuring devices, was spun out of Hewlett-Packard in 1999. Revenues surged in 2000 as did the stock price, reaching a lofty 162.

"But the company subsequently suffered along with its customers in the communications and technology sectors. However, the financials are sound, including strong cash flow that is supporting a $2 billion share buyback, and management has been restructuring and realigning operations for long-term growth.

Continue reading 'Singular' values: A, C, F, K, M, N, Q, S, T

Worst 10-year performers: Qwest Communications hung up on Enron scam

In this series, we take a look at the 25 stocks on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) that have turned in the worst performance during the past decade -- what went wrong, and what happens next.

Permit me, if you will, to draw up an analogy: Qwest Communications (NYSE: Q) is to Wall Street as Lindsay Lohan is to Hollywood. At first, the little redheaded upstart seems to come out of nowhere, and dazzles everyone with her amazing performance. Then, just as quickly as the newcomer rose to fame, she sinks into a massive meltdown, the scope and severity of which is shocking even to seasoned vets. Okay, so this little comparison probably won't find its way onto the SATs, but -- minus the "redheaded" part -- the similarities are kind of eerie.

What went wrong? At lucky number 13 on our list of SPX underperformers, Q shed 77% of its value during the decade that ended on June 30, 2008. The shares peaked at $66 in March 2000, and bottomed out at $1.02 in August 2002 - a 98.5% plunge, top to bottom.

When Colorado-based Qwest burst onto the Big Board in June 1997, it was a company with a vendetta. CEO Joseph Nacchio defected from his executive position at AT&T (NYSE: T) after it became clear that Ma Bell didn't see him as president material. Qwest was in the process of building a massive fiber-optic network, and the upstart was determined to grab market share away from the industry's old giants -- including AT&T, naturally.

Continue reading Worst 10-year performers: Qwest Communications hung up on Enron scam

Closing Bell: Despite $120 oil, stocks post gains

Can you believe oil put in another monster day with oil up $1.91 at $121.88 today. This morning started out looking just like March with financials way down, and commodities up. That abated toward the end of the day. An analyst prediction of $150 to $200 oil helped propel oil today. Below are today's unofficial closing prices:
  • DJIA 13,025.31 +55.77 +0.43%
  • S&P 500 1,418.42 +10.93 +0.78%
  • NASDAQ 2,483.31 +19.19 +0.78%
  • 10YR-Bond 3.893% (+0.048)
  • TOP 10 ANALYST CALLS.
The Blackstone Group L.P. (NYSE: BX) announced today $1.3 billion has been raised to invest in high quality loan assets by closing three CLOs. Blackstone pointed out that the CLOs are not an attempt to remove risky assets off balance sheets. The newly acquired GSO Capital Partners now manages 26 CLOs for a total of $14 billion. Shares actually fell 0.75% by the end of the day to $19.57.

Continue reading Closing Bell: Despite $120 oil, stocks post gains

Before the bell: With high oil prices, FNM on deck, futures decline

Stock futures were lower early Tuesday morning as oil prices remained high offsetting any recent optimism about the economy in light of Monday's surprise expansion in the service sector. Several companies are also reporting earnings today and will be in focus.

U.S. stocks dropped on Monday after Microsoft withdrew its takeover bid for Yahoo and as commodity prices once again spiked. The Dow industrials lost 88 points, or 0.68%, the Nasdaq Composite fell 12 points, or 0.52%, and the S&P 500 lost 6 points, or 0.45%.

Without much economic news today, no doubt investors will have no choice but to focus on the high oil prices. After setting a record close Monday and hitting a new trading high of $120.93 a barrel Tuesday, crude retreated to $119.88, down 9 cents from Monday's close. It is interesting that just as hopes were growing the slowdown of the US economy may not be as deep and long as originally thought, crude prices surge again, concerning investors about inflation and profits once again.

Continue reading Before the bell: With high oil prices, FNM on deck, futures decline

NYSE short interest makes record with huge increases in bank stocks

The short interest on the NYSE hit an all-time record in the period measured on February 29. Figures by company compare with shares sold short on February 15. Investors bet that shocks would drop across most sectors.

Financial firms had significant increases in short interest. At Citigroup (NYSE:C) the number rose 25.8 million shares to 118.6 million. At Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) the figure moved up 12.3 million to 108.8 million. At Wachovia (NYSE:WB) short interest jumped 6.3 million shares to 103.2 million.

At Fannie Mae (NYSE:FNM) shares short rose 14.7 million to 66.5 million.At Freddie Mac (NYSE:FRE) short interest soared 13.4 million to 53.5 million.

Shares short in telecom companies AT&T NYSE:(T), Verizon (NYSE:VZ), and Qwest (NYSE:Q) also rose by a significant margin.

Data from WSJ and NYSE.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Analyst upgrades: British Airways, ADC Telecomm, Qwest

MOST NOTEWORTHY: British Airways, ADC Telecomm and Qwest were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • Goldman upgraded shares of British Airways (OTC: BAIRY) to Buy from Neutral on valuation, and believes the company is the "jewel in the crown" in European aviation.
  • Morgan Keegan expects ADC Telecomm (NASDAQ: ADCT) to benefit from carrier upgrade activity and views expectations as conservative. The firm raised shares to Outperform from Market Perform.
  • Qwest (NYSE: Q) was raised to Buy from Hold at Soleil on valuation and yield support.
OTHER UPGRADES:

US cellphone spending passes landlines

For the first time, the amount that an average American household spends on its cellphone service is passing spending on traditional landlines.

According to The Associated Press ,""the most recent government data show that households spent $524, on average, on cell phone bills in 20qa06, compared with $542 for residential and pay-phone services. By now, though, consumers almost certainly spend more on their cell phone bills, several telecom industry analysts and officials said."

The news sets up some probable winners and losers over the next several years. AT&T (NYSE:T) and Verizon (NYSE:VZ) should both come out ahead, but not by as much as investors may think. Each of the companies has large cell phone operations, but the number of US cell customers is beginning to reach a point of saturation, just as landline customers did years ago. Cellular revenue will continue to grow, along with operating profits. But, landline revenue at these companies is likely to shrink, and that may accelerate as more people move to VoIP and cell phones.

The big loser will be Qwest (NYSE:Q). Most of its revenue come from landlines. It has no cellular business to speak of, so it is on the losing end of a trend, but does not have a play at the winner's table.

Of course, handset companies are likely to benefit. Motorola (NYSE:MOT) is still the leader in US handset sales. Nokia (NYSE:NOK), the world's largest handset company, would like to change that. And, there is always the Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhone. These days Apple always wins.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Qwest (Q) reinstates dividend

Q logoQwest Communications International Inc. (NYSE: Q) shares are rising this morning following yesterday's announcement that the company will begin paying quarterly dividends again in February. The company had halted its dividend program in 2001. Q will pay a quarterly dividend of 8 cents per share on February 28 to shareholders of record on February 1. Analysts called the move a sign that Q is being repositioned for better long-term growth. If you think that the company won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on KO.

After hitting a one-year high of $10.45 in May, the stock hit a one-year low of $6.23 in November. Q opened this morning at $7.33. So far today the stock has hit a low of $7.08 and a high of $7.35. As of 11:00, Q is trading at 7.18, up 0.22 (3.2%). The chart for Q looks bearish but improving slightly, while S&P gives Q a neutral 3 Stars (out of 5) hold rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an April bull-call debit spread at the $7.50 level. A bull-call debit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 35% return in four months if Q is above $7.50 at April expiration. Qwest would have to fall by more than 11% before we would start to lose money.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in Q.

Before the bell: JBLU, PALM, Q, FNM, GOOG, INTC ...

Before the bell: Futures lower ahead of CPI; Citi, Novell in focus

JetBlue Airways Group (NASDAQ: JBLU) announced Thursday that Deutsche Lufthansa had agreed to take a 19% equity stake. JBLU shares closed up 14.4% to $7.15. Lufthansa will buy , 42 million newly issued common shares of JetBlue in a private placement for $7.27 a share -- a 16% premium over Wednesday's close, or a total of about $300 million. This cash infusion will help the low-cost carrier face the high fuel prices and new competition.

Palm Inc. (NASDAQ: PALM) laid off about 10% of its work force this week to cut expenses. Palm issued a statement Thursday confirming some layoffs were made as part of a restructuring, but according to "persons familiar with the situation," CNNMoney eliminated more than 100 jobs of its 1,150 staff.

Qwest Communications International Inc.
(NYSE: Q) decided to resume its quarterly dividend for the first time since 2001 and will pay shareholders a quarterly dividend of 8 cents per share, payable Feb. 28 to shareholders of record on Feb. 1. Analysts think the move shows "that the telecommunications company is positioning itself for better long-term growth."

Continue reading Before the bell: JBLU, PALM, Q, FNM, GOOG, INTC ...

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Last updated: November 22, 2008: 03:53 AM

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