Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) just crushed their earnings and revenues for what typically is the slow first quarter. Usually the first quarter is met with a yawn. I have written three posts in the last month that this first quarter would be different, and it was. The street was looking for earnings per share of $.63 -- .66 and Apple reported $.87 on revenues of $5.26 billion, 100 million more than estimates.
What tipped me off is Wall Street analysts usually leave big tech names alone during the first quarter and maybe do a quiet, back-of-the -envelope mid-quarter update. Apple just had too much momentum exiting the December 2006 quarter and the outlook was just getting too big. So four firms put out "real" updates and began to hint of better-than-expected first quarter numbers. I have been recommending Apple to my web site Insider Insights Club Members since last September at $66, when the site opened. But I have been on this story for three years plus and recommending the shares to my old institutional clients since $12.
Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) shares are down 8%, or $2.59, to $29.50 tonight after the internet company reported lower-than-expected profit of 10 cents a share (versus analysts' expectations of 11 cents). Investors were evidently expecting right along with analysts, as the stock had been up 1.52% as the market waited for Yahoo! to report its first quarter earnings. When they came in, the results of Project Panama weren't having the company-wide impact so many Yahoo! watchers had clearly hoped.
Says Jordan Rohan of RBC Capital Markets, "the company is clearly still in transition." From all I've heard, Yahoo! has been in transition (I like to call it "limbo" or maybe even mild "chaos") for the past few years. When will the transition end? As Jonathan Berr suggests, maybe it won't end until Terry Semel is out -- and, I'd argue, the transition will have another year to go from there.
Or even more. Yahoo! will soon be faced with the DoubleClick problem; the internet company has a close partnership with the advertising firm, and that firm has just agreed to be sold to Google, Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG). As MarketWatch puts it, this will mean "it'll soon be paying its chief rival for services, and at the same time, giving Google more insight into Yahoo's own business."
I'm not a Yahoo! believer -- I have to wonder if it will ever be done with its "transition."
Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ:SBUX) investors have something to cheer about today: the company announced first quarter, fiscal 2007 results that were exactly what analysts hoped they'd be. 26 cents a share, or $205 million, up 18% from the year-earlier quarter, on revenues of $2.4 billion, up 22% from the year prior.
2:02 p.m. (All times Pacific.) The call has begun. Disclaimers... and the call is turned over to Jim Donald, CEO. As I mentioned, comparable store sales increased 6%; he breaks it down to 4% from number of transactions, 2% from value of transaction (connected to the increase in prices perhaps?).
2:02 p.m. The company opened 728 stores (awed voice) over two stores a day. The company is focused on balanced growth, and targeted investments. "Our food program this quarter was a significant contributor to our revenues... we have remained focused on expanding our lunch program..." 69% of company-operated U.S. retail stores now have lunches. Adds approximately $300,000 in average annual revenues to one store (big!). 1200 stores now offer warm breakfast items; aggressive plans to roll out warming platform over next couple of years. The warm sandwiches add (I think I heard this right) $135,000 in average annual revenue to one store. Both warm breakfast sandwiches and lunch programs are planned to be in all company-owned U.S. stores in a few years.
2:06 p.m. Raves over the Starbucks Card -- helps promote customer loyalty, it's huge, a great gift. I must admit I just bought my sister-in-law a Starbucks Card for her birthday...
Analysts expected Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ:SBUX) to earn 26 cents a share for the fiscal first quarter ended December 31, 2006. Starbucks earned? 26 cents a share. Right on the money.
Not only did we see exactly-met earnings, we also saw a same-store sales growth of a comfortable 6% -- nothing like the 4% that had everyone running scared this fall. Other bullet points on the report included net revenues of $2.4 billion, net earnings of $205 million, an increase of 18% over the year-earlier quarter, and "record quarterly Starbucks Card activations of $287 million" up 30%.
Disappointment hidden on page 2: evidently the bottled Frappuccino coffee drinks and DoubleShot espresso drinks, and the Starbucks ice cream, aren't doing so well; although it had a very small impact on the bottom line it's an interesting sideline to track.
Starbucks investors seemed quite happy, though, sending the stock up sharply in afterhours trading. SBUX closed out the trading day at $34.94, up 38 cents or 1.10%, and was falling a bit before the results; then bounced back up to $35.72, up 2.23% from yesterday's close.
Also check out some other earnings reports that we're following, and let us know your thoughts on earnings expectations.
According to First Call, analysts expect the coffee retailer to earn 26 cents a share, a big bump of 36% over the year-ago quarter. But for analysts who are hoping for a whopping growth rate? They don't sound so hopeful. William Blair analyst Sharon Zackfia is worried about the holiday merchandise -- the red ceramic mugs, the CDs, the bears. "Starbucks' pre-holiday markdowns on seasonal merchandise were earlier and more aggressive this year and post-holiday inventory levels were higher leading to subsequently deeper markdowns," she wrote, and it's certainly true that the Starbucks outlet on my corner was packed with holiday goodies in the weeks after Christmas (we picked up a set of coffee-cup ornaments for half price).
With a wealth of small changes to its business -- including a bigger focus on low-margin, but not labor-intensive items like books, music and those pretty red-themed mug; a bigger push into breakfast with eggy biscuity sandwiches; and a focus on spending more for more socially reponsible coffee -- the variables are many. And investors are skeptical; in the three months since the last earnings release, the stock is down about 13%. Are you really this skeptical?
Also check out some other earnings reports that we're following, and let us know your thoughts on earnings expectations.
Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) reported results which continue to reflect the impact of a stronger competitor in Advanced Micro Devices, Inc (NASDAQ: AMD), which was seen primarily in the gross margin line.
However, despite having a viable competitor, Intel results were reasonably good. Revenue came in at the top end of analyst estimates and guidance provided by the company for the 4Q 2006. In addition, guidance for 1Q 2007 also appeared OK.
Historically, Intel has traded on gross margins, which have been in decline for the past year. There is some evidence to suggest that 1Q 2007 could be the bottom for this metric.
What could drive gross margins higher is the huge demand increase for processors as notebooks continue to go to a dual processor and desktops go to a quad processor design. This means demand for processors will continue to grow, but more importantly, the manufacturing costs for processors are dropping fast.
I would use any price weakness to start buying Intel. It appears from both Intel and AMD chipset designs that Windows Vista operating system is going to require a lot of processing power. This could drive solid second half of 2007 results for both companies.
Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) first quarter earnings were strong, with revenue of $10.8 billion and net income of $3.48 billion. Everyone is looking forward, and investors don't know quite what to think: at first blush of the earnings release, the stock was down a few cents, and now has recovered in after hours trading to $28.52, up 17 cents from the market close.
Colleen Healy and Chris Liddell have just gotten on the conference call for the usual disclaimers. 2:38 p.m. [all times Pacific]: all results have come in at or above the high end of guidance, says Chris proudly. If you've never heard his voice, it's worth it: he sounds like a proud and very financially-savvy butler. He points out that the company is averaging one acquisition a month -- I don't know if I've even noticed. I'll have to pay more attention.
2:42 p.m. Colleen is giving details on first quarter performance, briefly, "in order to allow more time for your questions." It's all about the questions... She says the company made significant development on "all the products in the pipeline" and points out how the company's 11% revenue growth was driven by well-received new product launches, especially in the previously mentioned Entertainment and Devices division a.k.a. the Xbox 360.
2:45 p.m. Strong performance in the small and medium business divisions. Non-annuity growth was relatively week due to the anticipation (apprehension) of new Vista and SQL server software.
$10.81 billion in revenue. Net income of $3.48 billion, 35 cents a share. Microsoft's quarterly earnings results (it's the company's first fiscal quarter) came in with a bang, a good 11% increase over the year-earlier quarter.
For Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT), this news is sweet indeed. The company has shown strong growth in its Entertainment and Devices division, largely on the back of the Xbox 360 -- 6 million consoles sold!, trumpets the earnings release -- but, as Melly Alazraki mentioned in her preview earlier today, the company's real hopes are set on the upcoming release of Vista. Will it crash our computers? Will it suck? Will it justify the costly investments in R&D?
I'm sure many of these questions will be answered in the analyst conference call, which I'll be liveblogging -- 5:30 Eastern, 2:30 in local Pacific time. The stock was up just a touch to $28.35, and was down again a bit in after-hours to $28.20.
Poor General Electric. Without its charismatic leader Jack Welch at the helm, it’s like the big friendly nice
guy of the investing party -- it tries so hard, but gets so little attention.
On April 13 GE posted first
quarter results that included double-digit increases in earnings, revenues and cash flow. Its current steady Eddie
Chief Executive, Jeff Immelt, boasted on the conference call that new orders were up 33% and cash from operating
activities had more than doubled to $6.7 billion. Those are heady achievements for a company with revenues of $38
billion last quarter alone.
But did the stock price move? Not really. It fell a bit for two days after
reporting earnings and climbed the next -- like just about everything else on April 18 -- leaving it now at around $34.
That’s squarely in the middle of its ho-hum 52-week trading range of $32 to $37.