Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM) designs, develops, manufactures and markets digital wireless telecommunications products and services based primarily on its Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA) technology. The firm supplies integrated circuits and system software for voice and data communications, multimedia devices and global positioning products. It also licenses CDMA semiconductor technology and software to more than 100 other equipment and cell phone makers. The Qualcomm Ventures unit invests in wireless communications and Internet startups. Major competitors include Nokia (NYSE: NOK) and Texas Instruments (NYSE: TXN).
The company pleased investors last week, when it guided fiscal Q3 EPS to 54-55 cents (50-52 cents prior, 52 cent consensus) and Q3 revenues to points slightly above $2.7 billion ($2.5-$2.7B prior, $2.61B consensus). Management also guided FY08 EPS to $2.09-$2.13 ($2.04-$2.09 prior, $2.11 consensus). The updated guidance reflected greater than expected demand for Qualcomm's 1xEV-DO and HSPA chipsets, as well as revenues from advanced 3G network upgrades. Jefferies subsequently reiterated its "buy" rating on the shares and boosted its price target to $54.
"In 1999, Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM) went from less than $4 to over $92; but the party came to a screeching halt over the next three years," recalls Chuck Carlson, an expert on stocks that offer dividend reinvestment plans.
In The DRIP Investor, he explains, "The stock has been stuck in a trading range for the last four years. But that looks like it is about to end, as it recently moved to a new 52-week high and is setting its sites on its 2006 high of $53."
"Strong earnings and greater visibility on some litigation matters should pave the way for solid gains in the second half of 2008. Technology stocks should remain among the market's leading sectors, and Qualcomm offers an excellent play in the group.
"Qualcomm generates 90% of its revenue from cell-phone chipsets and license royalties paid by users of its intellectual property. Qualcomm's chips are used in mobile phones and wireless infrastructures around the globe.
"Growth here should remain strong as networks convert to third-generation technology and emerging markets expand and upgrade their infrastructure.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: DaVita, Dr. Pepper Snapple Group and Ascent Solar were today's noteworthy initiations:
Suntrust expects DaVita's (NYSE: DVA) dominant market share to help in commercial contract negotiations and they view potential Medicare reimbursement changes as more of an opportunity than a risk. The firm started shares with a Buy rating and $62 target.
JP Morgan initiated Dr. Pepper Snapple (NYSE: DPS) with an Underweight rating and expects declining free cash flow in 2008, which they note would be the third straight year.
Ascent Solar (NASDAQ: ASTI) was assumed with a Hold rating and $14 target at Jefferies. The firm sees high development risk with the company just beginning to operate its pilot line and commencing initial planning for its first 30 MW commercial line.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
Stanford initiated ViroPharma (NASDAQ: VPHM) with a Buy rating and $13 target.
Goldman assumed Research in Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) and Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM) with Buy ratings and targets of $163 and $55, respectively.
Blue Nile (NASDAQ: NILE) was initiated at Thomas Weisel with an Underweight rating and $44 target.
The market for PC and server chips may be slowing a bit as it becomes more mature. So, big chip companies like Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) need to figure out where to get their next spurt of growth. Smartphones and other "intelligent" wireless devices sales are rising fast, so why not take a piece of that market. One reason is probably competition, but that rarely keeps companies from entering a market that they think is promising.
According toThe Wall Street Journal, "Intel Corp has been heavily promoting a new breed of pocket-size portable devices as a future market for its chips. Its competitors now hope to reap the benefits." Texas Instruments (NYSE: TXN) and Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM) already dominate the mobile market and may not want to let Intel in. Other large chips companies like Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) and AMD (NYSE: AMD) would like a piece of the pie as well.
The gamble by Intel is that there will be huge demand for devices that are smaller than a PC but larger than a smartphone. They will eventually run on WiMax, WiFi and standard cellular broadband networks. The industry calls these "mobile Internet devices."
The success of the new market may swing on one large miscalculation. Consumers may not want a one-pound mini-computer with a tiny keyboard and modest-sized screen. Smartphones like the Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone and RIM (NASDAQ: RIMM) BlackBerry are already advanced "computers" and they are being improved every year.
New chips for new devices -- but what if no one wants them?
"Uncertainty about the legal disputes has weighed on Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM)," says Richard Moroney, who rates the stock a long-term buy. The editor of Dow Theory Forecasts explains, "Though the court case may distract investors, Qualcomm's long-term fundamentals appear solid." Here's his bullish outlook.
"The company is embroiled in disputes over royalty fees paid for use of its patents, particularly by one of its largest customers, Nokia. In March, the combatants agreed to consolidate a host of lawsuits into one case to be heard later this year and likely to be decided by year's end.
"Barring a disastrous court loss, which seems unlikely, Qualcomm shares should benefit. Any resolution will reduce uncertainty. By the end of this year, Qualcomm should be able to jettison some of the baggage holding back its stock.
"While the U.S. economic slowdown has sparked fears of a decline in demand for microchips, Qualcomm should benefit as cell-phone users worldwide transition to third-generation technology, which allows for faster downloading of video, music and other data.
According to The Wall Street Journal, Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT), attempting to avoid a huge hostile takeover bid, indicated it may be willing to raise its bid to as much as $33 per Yahoo Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) share. Microsoft's board had failed to reach a final decision on how to proceed with its bid for the Internet search group. Yahoo!, though, may want $35-37 per share. And I thought Ballmer said he would lower the bid ... Don't they know by now these negotiating tactics are well known? In any event, it's starting to look more and more like the deal is closer than ever and the parties are willing, despite each showing off some muscle first.
Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX) reported late Wednesday a 28% drop in second-quarter earnings to $108.7 million, matching market expectations. While the drop was expected, it doesn't mean the report showed any positive changes following Schultz coming back to the CEO role. Perhaps it's too early to see them manifested, but Starbucks, once such a darling, isn't showing improvement yet. Stock is up about half a percent in premarket trading.
Adobe Systems Inc., (NASDAQ: ADBE) estimated that fiscal second-quarter earnings and revenue would come in near the high end of its targets and affirmed its earnings outlook for the full year. That is about 45-47 cents, compared to analysts' estimates of 43 cents per share.
I just checked out Qualcomm's (NASDAQ: QCOM) earnings report that was released after the bell on Wednesday -- there's nothing in there that screams "buy me!"
For the company's fiscal Q2, revenues increased 17% to about $2.6 billion. Not too bad on the top line, I suppose. The bottom line, however, didn't see fit to reach for the double-digit growth crown -- diluted earnings per share, with adjustments, rose 8% to $0.54. Furthermore, free cash flow declined by 29% on a year-over-year basis. Now, let's focus our gaze at the pro forma forecast -- Qualcomm is looking for a potential decrease in Q3 earnings per share, perhaps on the order of between 5% and 9%. Okay, that's just the next quarter -- surely the fiscal year will be better, right? Not really. At best, the full-year earnings per share number will increase 4%, and at worst, you can look for a tiny little increase of 1% (that was an improvement over previous guidance, I'll give management that).
I'll pass on Qualcomm. Not only do these growth rates fail to intrigue me, but the company has been involved in litigation with Broadcom (NASDAQ: BRCM) and Nokia (NYSE: NOK), as Douglas McIntyre discussed last month. I like to avoid companies with litigation issues that can possibly exert a negative influence on a stock's potential to rise. Perhaps when Qualcomm has its legal house in order, I'll take another look.
Disclosure: I don't own shares in any of the companies mentioned here; positions can change at any time.
Texas Instruments (NYSE: TXN) reported Q1 numbers Monday after the bell, and I have to say that the report was OK in a relative sense -- nothing in it compelled me to want to do much of anything about the stock. The stock was off a little less than 2% in after-hours trading.
What drove the stock lower? Revenues didn't jump too high, rising 3% to $3.3 billion. Earnings per share, however, did rise by a pretty respectable amount -- they increased 40% to $0.49 per diluted share. It should be noted, though, that this figure included a $0.06 per share tax benefit.
In terms of expectations, Texas Instruments merely met them, according to Briefing.com, plus the company's outlook for the second quarter wasn't particularly robust -- the press release indicates a cautious tone in terms of its guidance on the part of management. Apparently, Texas Instruments believes the soft economy might keep growth potential firmly in check. Taken together, these stats seemed to have added up to a lower stock price. There were, however, some positive things to note in terms of the margins -- the gross and operating margins were up on a year-over-year basis.
Texas Instruments, which competes with Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM), may not have really bombed with its Q1 report, but again, I don't think there's any reason for me to buy or short the company's stock. I think there are better ideas out there in the tech sector; I continue, for instance, to find Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) a stock worth some due diligence.
Disclosure: I don't own shares in any of the companies mentioned; positions can change at any time.
After hitting a one-year high of $47.72 in May, the stock hit a one-year low of $35.17 in January. This morning, QCOM opened at $41.91. So far today the stock has hit a low of $41.43 and a high of $42.06. As of 12:35, QCOM is trading at $41.65, down 0.60 (-1.4%). The chart for QCOM looks bullish but deteriorating, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a July bear-call credit spread above the $50 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 8.5% return in three months as long as QCOM is below $50 at July expiration. Qualcomm would have to rise by more than 19% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
QCOM hasn't been above $48 at all in the past year and has shown resistance around $43 recently. This trade could be risky if the company's earnings (due out on 4/23) are a positive surprise, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by resistance QCOM might find around $44, where the stock topped out in February.
DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in QCOM or NOK.
A month ago, Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC), introduced a new chip category, the Atom brand, specifically designed for mobile internet devices, or what Intel it calls MIDs. After missing out on the market for cellphone chips, Intel is trying to push this technology and will use a conference in Shanghai to proclaim it as the next big thing in consumer gadgets.
According to The Wall Street Journal, Intel also said "25 hardware companies have decided to make portable Internet devices using its latest chip technology" for gadgets that are smaller than a laptop but bigger than a smartphone. Apparently, the devices will start appearing in late May and early June on store shelves in China, Japan and South Korea. N.America and Europe distribution will come at a later date.
I find it fascinating that a new category of product is being pushed from the chip level rather than from the manufacturer level. But perhaps manufacturers are bound by chip capabilities and with the Atom, specifically designed to draw little power and thus conserve battery power, it makes sense.
As PDAs seem to have all but disappeared from the market, most of us these days rely heavily on our laptops and mobile devices, separating the functions of both, especially when travelling. One is more for email, the other more for work and browsing capabilities. A device that could potentially combine both may be exactly what is needed. At a $500 price tag, when an Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone or a Research in Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) BlackBerry costs nearly the same, this might just find its place among those on the move.