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Aden sisters: Assessing the major trends

"Some August weakness wouldn't be abnormal and should be viewed as a great buying opportunity," say resource experts Pamela and Mary Anne Aden.

As they discuss in their advisory service, The Aden Forecast, from a longer-term perspective they remain bullish on gold and oil as well as stocks, particularly those in the tech sector.

They explain, "One thing is pretty clear: most markets are overbought for the time being, but in the bigger picture they're clearly oversold (in an area that normally coincides with major market bottoms).

"The stock market's major trend is clearly up, signaling stocks are going to rise further in the months ahead, and probably beyond.

Continue reading Aden sisters: Assessing the major trends

Options Update: Index volatilities' near one year lows

NASDAQ 100 (NASDAQ - QQQQ)verall implied volatility at 26; 26-week average is 32

Semiconductor Holders Trust - SMH overall volatility at 30; 26-week average is 38

Russell 2000 - IWM overall implied volatility at 27; 26-week average is 39

Financial Select Sector - XLF overall volatility at 37; 26-week average is 58

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Cramer on BloggingStocks: Intel has spoken

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says a revenue beat from the world's largest chipmaker reminds us why we own stocks.

Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) (Cramer's Take) still has it. It has the ability to galvanize like no other stock on the Nasdaq. It can energize and fulfill and make people feel all is right in the world.

The signs for this one were everywhere. Samsung last week saying that it is the new bull market in semis. Taiwan Semi (NYSE: TSM) (Cramer's Take) saying it. Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD) (Cramer's Take) saying it. SanDisk (NASDAQ: SNDK) (Cramer's Take), with its flash memory cards, saying it. Texas Instruments (NYSE: TXN) (Cramer's Take) saying it. Analog Devices (NYSE: ADI) (Cramer's Take) saying it. Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM) (Cramer's Take) saying it.

But nobody was listening.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Intel has spoken

Cramer on BloggingStocks: Inflow of money trumps the bad news

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says Mutual Fund Monday is alive and well.

Here we go: Bias says sell off. Time for a selloff. After being up for nine out of 11 weeks, it's time we went down. We should go down because we don't know what's going to happen, and Europe's down, and oil's down. Housing's awful and rates are going the wrong way for housing.

Next we are going to hear the whole move was phony, that only a handful of banks -- maybe just JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM) (Cramer's Take) and Goldman (NYSE: GS) (Cramer's Take) -- can pay back TARP -- and that the banking system is still weak and will remain weak because the recovery will be weak.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Inflow of money trumps the bad news

Options Update: Rosetta Stone volatility at 75 into first EPS report after IPO

Rosetta Stone Inc (NYSE: RST) was recently up 64 cents to $29.60. RST, a provider of technology based language learning solutions, is scheduled to report Q1 EPS after the market close today. RST June option implied volatility of 75 was above its two-week average of 68, according to Track Data, suggesting slightly larger price movement.

NASDAQ 100 (NASDAQ-QQQQ) overall implied volatility was at 31; 26-week average was 39.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Today's technical outlook: Markets at a crossroads

Even though the Dow Industrials closed below 8,000 for the third time in three weeks, the support at 7,940 has held and the other indices, including even the Dow Transportation Index (DOW: DJT), are now up a more comfortable distance from their support.

Most of our internal indicators have turned up but are not overbought, and the sentiment indicators show fear on the part of the public (the American Association of Individual Investors has shown four successive weeks of bears weighing at more than 44%) and optimism on the part of insiders -- a good combination.

And one widely followed exchange-traded fund, the PowerShares QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: QQQQ) which track the Nasdaq 100, closed above both the 20- and 50-day moving averages for the second-consecutive day with relatively strong volume on the buy side. (The QQQQ is also my trade of the day.)

But not everyone agrees with my analysis.

Continue reading Today's technical outlook: Markets at a crossroads

Option Update: Volatilities at all time record highs, indicating movement

Volatility Index S&P 500 Options - VIX at 79.12; 10-day moving average is 63.99.

Volatility Index NASDAQ 100 - VXN at 78.81; 10-day moving average is 67.89.

NASDAQ 100 - QQQQ overall implied volatility at 52; 26-week average is 34.

Russell 2000 - IWM overall implied volatility at 62; 26-week average is 34.

Financial Select Sector - XLF overall volatility at 78; 26-week average is 44.

Comcast (NASDAQ: CMCSA) is scheduled to report Q3 EPS on October 29. CMCSA November option implied volatility of 111 is above its 26-week average of 39 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Option Update: Solarfun Power volatility low into EPS & outlook

Solarfun Power (NASDAQ: SOLF) is scheduled to report Q1 EPS on May 21. SOLF over all option implied volatility of 75 is below its 26-week average of 94 according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price risk.

Oil Services Holders (AMEX: OIH) volatility is low at 33 on $122 oil.

NASDAQ 100 (NASDAQ: QQQQ) overall implied volatility is at 24; the 26-week average is 28.

Options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Contrarian turns bullish on market 'gloom'

"Gloom is thick enough to cut with a knife," says market historian and seasonal timing expert Sy Harding, whose timing system has just triggered a new intermediate-term buy signal on stocks. Here, in his Street Smart Report, the contrarian explains why he believes we are now near a market low.

He also looks at four new ETF index positions he has established in his portfolio. "The slowdown continues. Foreclosures soar. Debt problems are spreading to corporate and credit card loans. The housing collapse continues. The problems are affecting employment.

"And of course the credit crunch continues. Gasoline hit a record high $3.26 a gallon last week. Consumer confidence, and corporate CEO confidence is at multi-year lows regarding the economy.

"The gloom and doom has spread from financial publications to local newspapers and magazines, now featuring stories of layoffs and local plant closings, local small businesses suffering, comparisons to previous bad times, even occasionally to the Great Depression.

"Is the gloom thick enough? Are other conditions in place indicating we are near a market low? Here's why we think so:

Continue reading Contrarian turns bullish on market 'gloom'

ETFs every investor should know

If you've ever delved into investing in ETFs (exchange-traded funds, basically entire indexes and sectors that trade like stocks), you're already familiar with the most popular, those being Powershares QQQ Trust (Nasdaq: QQQQ), SPDR Trust Series 1 (AMEX: SPY), Diamonds Trust, Series 1 (AMEX: DIA), iShares Russell 2000 Index (NYSE: IWM) and lately Financial Select SPDR (AMEX: XLF) and UltraShort QQQ ProShares (AMEX: QID). But have you ever looked into those that are much less followed, but more capable of yielding some big-time returns?

I primarily trade fun smallcap stocks, so until the past few days, I hadn't either. But when I began researching, I just kept finding more and more interesting ETFs -- it was addictive! Almost addictive as my new Twitter account where I've discovered I can chat with business legends, yesterday it was the founder of eBay Inc (Nasdaq: EBAY). Okay, maybe ETFs will never be that addictive!

Out the few hundred ETFs I looked into, here were some of the more interesting of the bunch:

Continue reading ETFs every investor should know

New ETFs focused on revenues

It seems that every day a new ETF is listed with a new twist on an index.

So, for a short history in ETF evolution:

1. First came the market-weight indexed ETFs. These were ETFs that benchmarked themselves to indices like the S&P (AMEX: SPY) or the Nasdaq (NASDAQ: QQQQ).

2. Then, Jeremy Siegel and the WisdomTree (WSDT) team introduced dividend -weighted indices. Instead of giving commensurate weight to the largest companies in an index, these ETFs looked at companies with the highest payouts in terms of dividends. These were shortly followed by earnings-weighted indices and the ETFs that track them.

3. Now, we read on MarketWatch that a new firm named RevenueShares has listed three separate shares: the RevenueShares Large Cap Fund (NYSE: RWL), the RevenueShares Mid Cap Fund (NYSE: RWK), and lastly, you guessed it, the RevenueShares Small Cap Fund (NYSE: RWJ).

Continue reading New ETFs focused on revenues

ETF volumes have really taken off

Selected ETF Relative to NYSE Average Daily Volume After rising more or less in line with overall market volume for years, there has been a noticeable surge since the spring in the relative turnover of selected exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

For the SPDR Trust Series 1 ETF (AMEX: SPY), which tracks the S&P 500 index, the average daily volume (ADV) compared to New York Stock Exchange Composite ADV increased from 6.1% in April to 16.8% last month. For the PowerShares QQQ ETF (NASDAQ: QQQQ), which emulates the Nasdaq-100 index, the numbers went from 6.3% to 14.1%. For the iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund ETF (AMEX: IWM), which mirrors the small cap benchmark, relative turnover rose from 3.4% to 6.7%.

Although it's not clear whether the activity was related to hedging or outright position-taking -- or both -- the sharp increase in activity suggests that there has been an important change in the underlying dynamic of the U.S. equity market. If so, it raises some interesting questions.

Could this be a sign, for example, that the influence of hedge funds, proprietary trading desks, and other speculative operators is expanding dramatically? Are investors of all stripes becoming increasingly focused on ETFs as an investing vehicle? Does this emphasis on trading bundles of shares mean that more individual issues are "mispriced"?

Whatever the case, this is a trend worth paying attention to.

Michael Panzner is a 25-year veteran of the global stock, bond, and currency markets and the author of Financial Armageddon: Protecting Your Future from Four Impending Catastrophes and The New Laws of the Stock Market Jungle.

Second time around for the NDX-Nasdaq switch?

After a major run-up that began in earnest this past summer, the Nasdaq 100 index peaked relative to the Nasdaq Composite index about six weeks ago. The large cap-laden NDX then staged a short but sharp correction.

More recently, however, the ratio has bounced back and is once again nearing resistance at the October highs. The shares of larger companies have no doubt been boosted by stampeding institutions anxious to put money to work in what appears to be an early "Santa Claus" rally.

Still, given how circumstances panned out previously, it may be time to look for another pullback in the Nasdaq 100 in comparison to the broader technology-based index.

One way to play it (depending on risk tolerance): buy the Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index Tracking Stock ETF (NASDAQ: ONEQ) and sell (or sell short) the Powershares QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ: QQQQ).

Michael Panzner is a 25-year veteran of the global stock, bond, and currency markets and the author of Financial Armageddon: Protecting Your Future from Four Impending Catastrophes and The New Laws of the Stock Market Jungle.

Buy semiconductor stocks, sell other tech shares?

Up until the stock market bubble burst, many viewed the semiconductor sector as a leading indicator for other technology shares. Lately, however, the relationship has gone signficantly awry.

Since the year began, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index -- which has an equivalent exchange-traded fund, the Semiconductor HOLDRs Trust ETF (AMEX: SMH) -- has lost 3.4%, trailing far behind the 25.5% rise in the Nasdaq 100 index -- which has an equivalent exchange-traded fund, the Powershares QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ: QQQQ) -- as well as the 8.6% gain in the S&P 500 index.

Although many technology stocks have been boosted by the prospect of strong overseas growth and momentum-driven buying, semiconductor shares have been under a great deal of pressure, hurt by disappointing earnings and outlooks from companies like KLA-Tencor (NASDAQ: KLAC) and SanDisk (NASDAQ: SNDK), along with persistent talk of a chip glut.


Continue reading Buy semiconductor stocks, sell other tech shares?

Option update 10-11-07: Baidu & VIX volatility spike on selloff

Baidu (NASDAQ: BIDU), a Chinese-language internet search provider, is recently down $33.10 to $310.09. BIDU call option volume of 95,184 contracts compares to put volume of 67,862 contracts. BIDU October 330 straddle is priced at $35.50. BIDU November option implied volatility of 90 is above its 26-week average of 55, according to Track Data, suggesting larger price fluctuations.

Regeneron (NASDAQ: REGN), is primarily focused on the development of drugs for oncology. REGN is recently up $0.59 to $19.09. REGN October 20 calls have traded 42 times on transaction volume of 881 contracts, above its open interest of 710 contracts. REGN November call option implied volatility is at 85, puts are at 73 above its 26-week average of 56, according to Track Data, suggesting larger risk.

Volatility Index S&P 500 Options: VIX.X up 2.54 to 19.21.

Daily options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

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Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+203.5210,226.94
NASDAQ0.002,154.06
S&P 5000.001,093.08

Last updated: November 10, 2009: 09:32 AM

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