Minyanville contributor Sean Udall dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.
I've taken a leg in the Ultra QQQ ProShares (AMEX: QLD). The market has popped 2% off lows, the question is will it pop the full 7%?
I'm seeing a few positive divergences and the percentage of stocks below the 50 day moving average is well below the 2002 levels. I haven't looked at the percentage of stocks below the 200 day, but I'm sure the reading should be equally distressed.
I know people are pricing in earnings per share Armageddon in tech land -- so the question is, what happens to many of these stocks if it's really just sort of "punk" and not a total cataclysmic drop in revenue guidance.
No matter how good Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM)'s earnings have been over the last two years, its stock has been capped to some extent by its long legal battle with its largest customer, Nokia (NYSE: NOK). The dispute is over now, news which is probably better for Qualcomm than Nokia. The legal threat hanging over the cell phone chip maker firm is gone.
According toThe Wall Street Journal, "Under the settlement, Nokia will withdraw that complaint as well as other litigation. Besides getting licenses to Qualcomm patents, Nokia said it will assign ownership of a number of its patents to Qualcomm. The pact not only covers patents used in current cellphone networks but also emerging technologies that could succeed them -- including WiMax and LTE, which stands for long-term evolution."
The news sent Qualcomm's stock up over 18%.
Nokia had disputed the fees Qualcomm charged for its chips and the license fees for its technology. Qualcomm can now get substantial payments from its former nemesis. If Qualcomm had lost its battle, its long-term income could have been cut sharply. Nokia is getting access to patents, but it will still be making payments to the chip company.
The trouble has kept Qualcomm's shares from trading above the $52 level that they hit in mid-2006. Investors can expect that the ceiling on the stock will now be gone.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
"Yes, the market is declining. And, yes, it is often scary to buy during such market periods. Nevertheless, there's an adage that 'the best time to invest was yesterday; the next best time is today'.
"Indeed, countless studies have shown that the best thing any investor can do is invest early and often. That is the best way to maximize the power of time, and time will have the greatest bearing on your investment results.
"Thus, investors need to be willing to buy even when it is difficult to do so, or should I so especially when it is difficult to do so. The reason is that we usually are reluctant to buy stocks during market declines. Yet, if you think about it, declining markets should be precisely the time we buy since stocks are cheaper.
"The stock has demonstrated impressive price performance throughout the market volatility in recent months, rising to its highest level in a year above $50 before pulling back.
Again this week, in a list of earnings expectations for some prominent companies in a variety of sectors, we see an apparent optimism. That is, analysts are anticipating more earnings growth than earnings declines.
Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial expect the following companies to report a rise in earnings when compared to the same period of the previous year.
Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM) closed at $48.33 Friday. QCOM makes chips for handsets and licenses technology to handset makers. QCOM is expected to report Q3 EPS on July 23. QCOM August option implied volatility of 44 is above its 26-week average of 38 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.
Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM) designs, develops, manufactures and markets digital wireless telecommunications products and services based primarily on its Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA) technology. The firm supplies integrated circuits and system software for voice and data communications, multimedia devices and global positioning products. It also licenses CDMA semiconductor technology and software to more than 100 other equipment and cell phone makers. The Qualcomm Ventures unit invests in wireless communications and Internet startups. Major competitors include Nokia (NYSE: NOK) and Texas Instruments (NYSE: TXN).
The company pleased investors last week, when it guided fiscal Q3 EPS to 54-55 cents (50-52 cents prior, 52 cent consensus) and Q3 revenues to points slightly above $2.7 billion ($2.5-$2.7B prior, $2.61B consensus). Management also guided FY08 EPS to $2.09-$2.13 ($2.04-$2.09 prior, $2.11 consensus). The updated guidance reflected greater than expected demand for Qualcomm's 1xEV-DO and HSPA chipsets, as well as revenues from advanced 3G network upgrades. Jefferies subsequently reiterated its "buy" rating on the shares and boosted its price target to $54.
"In 1999, Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM) went from less than $4 to over $92; but the party came to a screeching halt over the next three years," recalls Chuck Carlson, an expert on stocks that offer dividend reinvestment plans.
In The DRIP Investor, he explains, "The stock has been stuck in a trading range for the last four years. But that looks like it is about to end, as it recently moved to a new 52-week high and is setting its sites on its 2006 high of $53."
"Strong earnings and greater visibility on some litigation matters should pave the way for solid gains in the second half of 2008. Technology stocks should remain among the market's leading sectors, and Qualcomm offers an excellent play in the group.
"Qualcomm generates 90% of its revenue from cell-phone chipsets and license royalties paid by users of its intellectual property. Qualcomm's chips are used in mobile phones and wireless infrastructures around the globe.
"Growth here should remain strong as networks convert to third-generation technology and emerging markets expand and upgrade their infrastructure.
"Uncertainty about the legal disputes has weighed on Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM)," says Richard Moroney, who rates the stock a long-term buy. The editor of Dow Theory Forecasts explains, "Though the court case may distract investors, Qualcomm's long-term fundamentals appear solid." Here's his bullish outlook.
"The company is embroiled in disputes over royalty fees paid for use of its patents, particularly by one of its largest customers, Nokia. In March, the combatants agreed to consolidate a host of lawsuits into one case to be heard later this year and likely to be decided by year's end.
"Barring a disastrous court loss, which seems unlikely, Qualcomm shares should benefit. Any resolution will reduce uncertainty. By the end of this year, Qualcomm should be able to jettison some of the baggage holding back its stock.
"While the U.S. economic slowdown has sparked fears of a decline in demand for microchips, Qualcomm should benefit as cell-phone users worldwide transition to third-generation technology, which allows for faster downloading of video, music and other data.
I just checked out Qualcomm's (NASDAQ: QCOM) earnings report that was released after the bell on Wednesday -- there's nothing in there that screams "buy me!"
For the company's fiscal Q2, revenues increased 17% to about $2.6 billion. Not too bad on the top line, I suppose. The bottom line, however, didn't see fit to reach for the double-digit growth crown -- diluted earnings per share, with adjustments, rose 8% to $0.54. Furthermore, free cash flow declined by 29% on a year-over-year basis. Now, let's focus our gaze at the pro forma forecast -- Qualcomm is looking for a potential decrease in Q3 earnings per share, perhaps on the order of between 5% and 9%. Okay, that's just the next quarter -- surely the fiscal year will be better, right? Not really. At best, the full-year earnings per share number will increase 4%, and at worst, you can look for a tiny little increase of 1% (that was an improvement over previous guidance, I'll give management that).
I'll pass on Qualcomm. Not only do these growth rates fail to intrigue me, but the company has been involved in litigation with Broadcom (NASDAQ: BRCM) and Nokia (NYSE: NOK), as Douglas McIntyre discussed last month. I like to avoid companies with litigation issues that can possibly exert a negative influence on a stock's potential to rise. Perhaps when Qualcomm has its legal house in order, I'll take another look.
Disclosure: I don't own shares in any of the companies mentioned here; positions can change at any time.
Texas Instruments (NYSE: TXN) reported Q1 numbers Monday after the bell, and I have to say that the report was OK in a relative sense -- nothing in it compelled me to want to do much of anything about the stock. The stock was off a little less than 2% in after-hours trading.
What drove the stock lower? Revenues didn't jump too high, rising 3% to $3.3 billion. Earnings per share, however, did rise by a pretty respectable amount -- they increased 40% to $0.49 per diluted share. It should be noted, though, that this figure included a $0.06 per share tax benefit.
In terms of expectations, Texas Instruments merely met them, according to Briefing.com, plus the company's outlook for the second quarter wasn't particularly robust -- the press release indicates a cautious tone in terms of its guidance on the part of management. Apparently, Texas Instruments believes the soft economy might keep growth potential firmly in check. Taken together, these stats seemed to have added up to a lower stock price. There were, however, some positive things to note in terms of the margins -- the gross and operating margins were up on a year-over-year basis.
Texas Instruments, which competes with Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM), may not have really bombed with its Q1 report, but again, I don't think there's any reason for me to buy or short the company's stock. I think there are better ideas out there in the tech sector; I continue, for instance, to find Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) a stock worth some due diligence.
Disclosure: I don't own shares in any of the companies mentioned; positions can change at any time.
Minyanville contributor Sean Udall dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.
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