Yesterday, the Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate at 5.25%, which was greeted by a quick, robust rally. In anticipation, Las Vegas was even taking bets on the Fed's action or lack of action. In its announcement, the Federal Reserve stated that it is still concerned about inflationary pressures and is waiting for the "adjustment" in real estate markets to settle out. The stock market liked the hint of potential rate cuts in summer or autumn. So where do we go from here?
The December 2006 quarterly results posted by most of corporate America was good to very good. I listened in on 45 quarterly earnings conference calls (I know, I need to get a life), and I counted over 30 that gave robust, optimistic outlooks for 2007. I heard expressions like "visible orders" to "pipeline filling" to "sales force feeling very optimistic" to "we will spend more on cap-ex due to higher revenues," etc. -- all in all, very good indicators from the corporations that drive the economy and the stock market.
We are approaching the end of the first calendar quarter, March 31st. As of yet, and it is early, no major company has pre-announced a quarterly shortfall. The first three to five trading days of April are critical. If a company misses the March quarter, it normally will be pre-announced in the first days of April. The reasonable assumption is if a company does not pre-announce, then it made the quarterly expectations and will provide greater detail on the actual conference call, normally in the 3rd or 4th week of April. The stock market will carefully watch and see who does or does not pre-announce a quarterly miss. This is the first catalyst to move the market forward. Then when actual numbers start coming in and further optimism for the second quarter is reinforced, the market will likely move up again.
The US stock market is still considered slightly under-valued. The S&P 500 is currently trading at a 15-16 PE multiple, not expensive in historical perspective.
Whatever happens, it will be interesting as usual . . .
Georges Yared is the author of Stop Losing Money Today and Baby Boomer Investing.