The shares of Union Pacific (UNP), which I first discussed here on March 27, 2009, at a price of $43, have failed three times this winter to break through major, psychological resistance at $100. Needless to add, if you haven't already, now may be a good time to consider taking some profits if you're in near $43.

However, those investors who can tolerate the risk can maintain their full position in UNP, but keep in mind that the journey to $120 probably will not be completed in 2011.

Continue reading Will Union Pacific Break Through $100?

Will Union Pacific Break Through $100? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 01 Apr 2011 13:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

"Once written off as a 'sunset' industry, North American railroads are making money hand over fist. In short, the railways are benefiting from a rising tide and the companies have a lot going for them," notes Canadian analyst Tom Slee.

The contributing editor with Internet Wealth Builder explains, "Here's a look at my newest recommendation, Canadian Pacific Railway (CP), as well as my long-time favorite, Canadian National Railway (CNI).

"Last year the six major carriers posted a 45% average growth in earnings as they booked increased volumes and increased rates.

Continue reading Canadian Pacific and Canadian National: Riding the Rails

Canadian Pacific and Canadian National: Riding the Rails originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 29 Mar 2011 12:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The shares of railroad company CSX Corp. (CSX), which I first wrote about on May 1, 2009, at a price of $30.56, have surged through $60 and $70 resistance levels, and now obviously would be a good time to consider taking some profits, if you're near $30 with CSX.

However, those investors who can tolerate the risk can maintain their full position with CSX, as there's more upside ahead.

Look for CSX's 2011 revenue to increase 6% to 8%, after a nearly 18% surge in 2010. Volumes should rise 5% to 7% this year, and overall prices for transport services should rise, albeit with some softness in selected price categories. Any above-trend U.S./global GDP growth rates will improve CSX's performance.

Continue reading CSX Corp.: Time to Take Some Profits?

CSX Corp.: Time to Take Some Profits? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 25 Feb 2011 10:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Canadian Pacific Railway Is Leaving the Station

Canadian Pacific Railway Is Leaving the Station originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 03 May 2010 16:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The contributing analyst with Internet Wealth Builder explains, "An upward movement in the Dow Industrials is only sustainable if confirmed by the Transports. As traders say, one 'makes', one 'takes'. Further, the Transports have led every major rally since 2004. So with our canary alive and well, I remain very encouraged."

Continue reading Ride the Rails: Canadian Railway (CNI) and Norfolk Southern (NSC)

Ride the Rails: Canadian Railway (CNI) and Norfolk Southern (NSC) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 31 Mar 2010 10:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Berkshire Hathaway buying Burlinton Northern Santa Fe

Berkshire Hathaway buying Burlinton Northern Santa Fe originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 03 Nov 2009 09:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

"Burlington Northern is my preferred choice in the railroad industry. At first glance, Burlington Northern had a particularly bad first quarter.

"Profit was $0.86 a share, down sharply from $1.30 a share the year before. However, when unusual items such as an unfavourable coal rate decision are excluded, operating earnings amounted to a much more acceptable $1.13 a share, well above the 96c analysts were looking for.

Continue reading Burlington Northern (BNI): On the right track

Burlington Northern (BNI): On the right track originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 22 May 2009 15:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

"It's hard to find any good news these days but I was pleasantly surprised with the third-quarter railway results, as almost all of the 'class 1 carriers' reported better than expected earnings," notes analyst Tom Slee.

The contributing editor to Gordon Pape's Internet Wealth Builder explains, "Several rail stocks are starting to look attractive at these depressed levels and Burlington Northern (NYSE: BNI) remains my preferred choice in the group." Here's his outlook.

"Even with the economic downturn starting to bite, reduced fuel costs and increased freight rates offset lower volumes. Equally important, the companies remain cautiously optimistic despite the miserable outlook.

"They are confident that further freight rate price increases in the 4% to 5% range are sustainable and will still allow them to undercut inefficient truckers.

"Unfortunately, none of this prevented the stocks from being battered during the market collapse. However, I think that fourth-quarter profits are likely to remain strong and the longer term outlook for railroads remains favorable.

"Burlington Northern continues to power ahead. A shrinking economy must eventually take its toll but there was no sign of any weakness in BNI's third-quarter results. Operating earnings came in at $1.91 a share, up 29% from $1.48 in 2007.

Continue reading Burlington Northern (BNI): On the right track

Burlington Northern (BNI): On the right track originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 11 Dec 2008 10:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

CSX (NYSE: CSX), a transportation company whose competitors include Burlington Northern Santa Fe (NYSE: BNI), Norfolk Southern Corp. (NYSE: NSC), and Union Pacific Corp. (NYSE: UNP), reported earnings for the third quarter on Tuesday. The results weren't bad, driven in part by a drop in energy costs and an effort to keep costs under control.

Revenues increased 18%, approaching $3 billion. Earnings per share from continuing operations skyrocketed 40% to $0.94. As management pointed out, distributors are exploiting railways to the advantage of their supply chains. This is cool for shareholders of CSX, who obviously are hoping their company can successfully navigate the tough economic landscape that we're all trying to find maps for. And if oil prices continue to fall, then CSX may find it easier to manage its operations.

And there's another positive. According to this source, CSX beat analyst expectations by a penny. Unfortunately, according to that same source, management believes that it will hit the lower end of the spectrum in terms of its previous guidance. CSX is looking to earn between $3.65 and $3.75 per share for the fiscal year.

Taking everything together, I'm not sure I'd want to enter CSX at this time. It is well off the 52-week high, but it's not exactly near the 52-week low, either. Even though the energy picture might be moderating for the company, and even though its business does offer a compelling transportation service, I think a macro slowdown might send shares back toward the low. And according to this source, freight volume declined by over 2%. Problems in the automotive industry are negatively affecting CSX. Heck, problems in many industries will be with us for a while. CSX will see its operations pressured. And, again, that tells me that I'd have to see a big drop in the stock to find it attractive at this point.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

CSX beats expectations, but I'd be careful about buying it originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 15 Oct 2008 11:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

"Railroads are a play on three big secular themes: the drive for increased energy efficiency, growth in coal and the agriculture boom," says Elliott Gue, a energy sector expert who has just returned from Japan where he was covering the G8 Summit.

Meanwhile, in his The Energy Srategist, he states, "Railroads are now among the most fuel-efficient forms of freight transport available." Here, he offers a bullish review of Union Pacific (NYSE: UNP).

"My long-held thesis on the group has been that the railroads are no longer totally dependent on the US economy for their growth.

"It's no longer appropriate to look at this sector as viciously economy sensitive. The traditional relationship between the broader market and the rails has been breaking down for several years, but this trend appears to be accelerating.

"In 2007, according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR), the average railroad moved a ton of freight a distance of 436 miles on a single gallon of diesel fuel. That makes freight trains roughly three to four times more fuel efficient than trucks.

"Union Pacific is the largest railroad in the US and has long been one of my favorites. The company's network is nearly 33,000 miles long and is concentrated in the West and Midwest. It also offers a convenient example of the bullish forces at work for the rails, particularly in the coal and agriculture industries.

Continue reading Union Pacific (UNP): 'Railroad renaissance'

Union Pacific (UNP): 'Railroad renaissance' originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 17 Jul 2008 12:58:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

"Having spent a lot of time recently studying the North American transportation industry, my conclusion is that trucking is on the decline while the railroads are poised to increase market share," notes Tom Slee.

The contributing editor to Gordon Pape's Internet Wealth Builder states, "The logical conclusion: buy rail stocks now." Here he looks at Kansas City Southern (NYSE: KSU) and Burlington Northern Santa Fe (NYSE: BNI).

"Who would have thought it? Railways are having a good year. They were supposed to be hunkered down, riding out the recession. Instead, the old iron horse is thriving.

"Surging demand for commodities is more than offsetting a slump in building materials shipments. Even higher energy costs are proving a plus for the railroads. Each jump in oil prices gives them a bigger edge over their gas guzzling competitors: trucks.

"Most important, the rails are able to raise rates despite the economic downturn. Their surcharges are sticking. Yet the stocks are out of favour.

Continue reading KSU & BNI: Riding the rails to profits

KSU & BNI: Riding the rails to profits originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 29 May 2008 10:29:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

"The railroad sector is one of the few reliable groups in today's market; with solid pricing power, these companies have a solid future moving forward," says contrarian Chris Johnson.

"We are adding CSX Corp. (NYSE: CSX) as a long position to the Insightful Investor portfolio. Here's his look at the stock, and an options play for those seeking leverage.

"Last week, our Earnings Tip Sheet highlighted CSX as a bullish pick ahead of earnings. The stock was positioned for a jump according to our Behavioral Valuation approach. One week and a positive earnings report later, we're looking to increase our exposure to the company.

"CSX has now reported earnings results that handily beat both the analyst forecast and the whisper number. The company overcame softness in some sectors through increased shipments in ethanol and grain as well as increased foreign demand for coal.

"Rail companies appear strong moving forward, given that rising crude oil prices are forcing companies to use more cost-efficient means to ship their goods.

"What's more, CSX was the first of the 'big four' rail companies to report earnings. The company should thus benefit from positive reports when its competitors enter the earnings confessional.

Continue reading Riding the rails with CSX Corp. (CSX)

Riding the rails with CSX Corp. (CSX) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 28 Apr 2008 12:25:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Railroad giant CSX Corporation (NYSE: CSX) recorded record revenue of $10 billion for FY2007, the first time the company has crossed that threshold. CSX also posted record gains for 4Q 2007. EPS increased 15% to $0.86 per share on net earnings of $365 million. 4Q operating income increased over $100 million to $609 million.

CSX posted good revenue and productivity growth despite being hit with big increases in fuel costs. The company also posted significant improvements in its safety record. Over the past three years, CSX has posted the highest share price gain of any major railroad in North America, gaining 10% in just the last two days.

CSX CEO Michael Ward forecasts double-digit growth in both operating income and EPS for 2008. The stock currently trades in the mid-40s and may be worth a look for investors seeking some stability in the stock market.

CSX jumps 10% in two days originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 24 Jan 2008 09:09:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Always lost at Monopoly? Re-coop with a railroad stock

Always lost at Monopoly? Re-coop with a railroad stock originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 05 Dec 2007 17:55:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Canadian Pacific helps keep the great north connected originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 05 Dec 2007 14:05:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading In eastern U.S., Norfolk helps keep everything in motion

In eastern U.S., Norfolk helps keep everything in motion originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 30 Nov 2007 17:53:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading The continental rationale for BNI's shares

The continental rationale for BNI's shares originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 28 Nov 2007 11:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Over the past year, transportation stocks have lagged other shares. Since last October, for example, the Dow Jones Transportation Index has lost 5.1%, while the S&P 500 index has gained 13.25%.

But not all stocks in the transport group have tracked the index. Railroad shares, for example, have outperformed both the sector and the overall market, with the S&P Supercomposite Railroad Index (a sub-index of the S&P Composite 1,500 index) rising by 17.3% over the period. That compares to, say, the S&P Supercomposite Trucking Index, which has dropped by 6.6%

Among the reasons for the relative strength in railroad shares: interest from value investors like Warren Buffett, and the fact that rising oil prices don't hurt this segment as much as other, more fuel-dependent industries.

Still, some might argue that at this point, much of the news, whether good or bad, is probably factored into prices. If you combine that with the fact that the railroad sector is back to long-term resistance levels relative to its trucking company counterpart, that suggests it might be a good idea to sell the former and buy the latter.

Otherwise, given a worrisome economic outlook and the relative underperformance of the transportation sector generally, it could be time for those who've been riding the rails to jump off the train -- before it runs out of track.

Michael Panzner is a 25-year veteran of the global stock, bond, and currency markets and the author of Financial Armageddon: Protecting Your Future from Four Impending Catastrophes and The New Laws of the Stock Market Jungle.

Are rising railroad stocks running out of track? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 17 Oct 2007 14:13:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Given investors anxiousness about the economy and hearing more gloom and doom than I think is warranted, I thought I would get back to basics with "my pal" Warren, and add to the series I started several months ago. I decided to write the series after receiving encouragement from friends and associates that read With Warren Buffett by my side ....

Today, I am writing about the concept of Durable Competitive Advantage, which is the ability to get ahead and stay ahead with a high level of certainty. It is also referred to as Sustainable Competitive Advantage.

To achieve a Durable Competitive Advantage, several factors have to be present. One is a big moat (Buffett expression) surrounding the enterprise. This usually means businesses that sell commodities where price is the primary factor in determining opportunity, have no moat as price takers. Their profit margins are not easily defendable. Another factor is barrier to entry. How easy would it be for someone to enter the same business and compete? The T-shirt business is a good example, of something without a Durable Competitive Advantage. Anyone could enter this business in one day, and they do. So unless the business has some unique concept, it does not have the promise of relatively predictable and sustainable profit margins in the future.

Continue reading Serious Money: The page on Buffett IV: Durable Competitve Advantage

Serious Money: The page on Buffett IV: Durable Competitve Advantage originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 12 Sep 2007 13:48:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Warren Buffett, Carl Icahn ride the rails originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 12 Jul 2007 19:01:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.