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Defensive trio: Lockheed, Raytheon and L-3

"As my high school football coach always quipped, 'Offense may win fans, but defense wins games,'" says leading growth stock expert Louis Basenese.

Here, the Oxford Club associate investment director takes a look at his three favorite defense stocks, noting, "When it comes to investing in the current environment, I'm convinced that you can't go wrong with this trio of companies."

"In my view, this sector willl never fall out of favor. The recent development with Russia serves to underscore another point I've been making for years. We always have to be prepared.

"Or, put another way, there will never be a good time for defense cuts, lest we want to leave our country vulnerable.Add it all up, and we can expect defense companies to enjoy steady demand. Even in the face of a recession.

"As the CEO of Rockwell notes, there has been absolutely no fallout in the defense industry as a result of the worldwide credit meltdown or other economic woes. So here's a quick run-down on the three defense companies we prefer for investors.

Continue reading Defensive trio: Lockheed, Raytheon and L-3

Chasing Value: Raytheon says 'Game on'

When you watch your kids playing war games on their computers, it must have occurred to you at some point that this might all be part of some grand scheme to get the next generation well-versed in a new set of skills. Hand-to-hand combat (except with their siblings) is out and unmanned aerial vehicles, or UAVs are in.


The AP (7/20) reported that Raytheon Company (NYSE: RTN) recently unveiled "its new control system for unmanned aerial vehicles, or UAVs." Raytheon's "Universal Control System,...uses some hardware from the gaming world," and is expected to "shorten training time and help prevent crashes of expensive unmanned drone aircraft by providing a more interactive experience for the pilot." The company focused on "making the system more intuitive -- replacing keystrokes with a game console -- after consulting with experts and discovering that thumbs are the most energy-efficient and accurate way to control an aircraft."

Given Iran's recent missile tests and all the saber rattling that goes on around the world, it should be no surprise that governments have been seeking Raytheon's Patriot Missile technology for years, but RTN is also a leader in a wide range of radar systems, guidance systems, airport monitoring and control systems, and of course the latest in UAV technology.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Raytheon says 'Game on'

Investing in Everyone: Defense, Food, Power, Clinton, Obama, and McCain

Grains & OilseedsI have not decided who I am voting for yet. Or maybe it would be more accurate to say I have decided on multiple occasions only to become undecided again. While some will see me as fickle, or worse, others may be in the same boat.

I am also continuing to think about what difference any of the candidates can make on the economy, and based on these musings, where to invest. My current belief is that none of them will have a profound impact on our economy.

There are no financial wizards among them. Here is the shocker though: I like all three candidates, or at least can find some good in each of them. Each of them is a fighter, and I believe each one of them brings certain skill sets to the job. There are also things about each candidate that are inescapably negative. Clinton has so much baggage, Zsa Zsa Gabor would be jealous. Obama does not have the experience and he has a degree of arrogance (right sweetie); McCain is an old stick-in-the-mud who, as a long-time senator, has spent more hours with lobbyists than almost anybody, though he is pretending otherwise.

Where does this leave me from an investment perspective? My first choice, for stability with moderate growth and dividends, remains the defense sector. I wrote Defense sector rolls over S&P 500 for 8th straight year a while back and I still think that it is the most secure. Here's why:

A) None of the candidates will want to appear soft on defense when we are at war, and all three have made threatening remarks in some country's direction to make sure the electorate knows that.

B) The War in Afghanistan and Iraq rages on, and even the most optimist view is that a draw-down will take years.

C) Even if all war ceased immediately, the upgrading and replenishment of the hardware will cost billions of dollars and most of the defense contractors have that in their backlogs now. Chasing Value: General Dynamics & Raytheon -- The defense does not rest

Continue reading Investing in Everyone: Defense, Food, Power, Clinton, Obama, and McCain

Chasing Value: General Dynamics & Raytheon: The defense does not rest

General Dynamics (NYSE: GD) logoWhen it comes to defense spending over the last nine years, there has not been any rest. As I have reported on numerous occasions, the defense sector has beaten the market indices year after year. This year is no exception and two of my recommendations remain ahead of the market and are reporting new contracts every day.

Today, theThe Arizona Republic reports [registration required] that General Dynamics (NYSE: GD) is to receive billions in contracts for its C4 Systems as part of the Army's extensive modernization plan. The company is building a communications network for the Army and is the lead contractor with Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) for a wireless network that will deliver mobile connectivity to soldiers on the field.

General Dynamics is up about $10 (12.5%) in the last year and offers a 1.5% dividend yield. Its current P/E is 16.5 and its P/S is 1.33 with a 15% ROIC. It opened today at $90.58.

Continue reading Chasing Value: General Dynamics & Raytheon: The defense does not rest

Newspaper wrap-up: Harris ponders future and considers selling

MAJOR PAPERS:
  • Harris Corporation (NYSE: HRS), concerned about its future growth, may see limited opportunity and may consider selling itself, the Wall Street Journal reported. If it does decide to sell, suitors could include Raytheon Company (NYSE: RTN), BAE Systems Plc (OTC: BAESY) and Northrop Grumman Corporation (NYSE: NOC).
  • The Wall Street Journal reported that, in an attempt to toughen its regulation standards, SEC chairman Christopher Cox said earlier this week the agency would push Wall Street investment houses will have to reduce borrowing and rely less on short-term financing.
  • As part of plans to reduce costs and restore profit growth, people close to the situation said that Citigroup Incorporated (NYSE: C) is likely to today identify up to $400B in non-core assets that could be sold. Additionally, the Financial Times reported that Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit will confirm his pledge to cut the bank's cost base by about 20% at a meeting with analysts today. Sources familiar with the matter believe Pandit will dismiss calls for a break-up of the company.
OTHER PAPERS:

Analyst downgrades: KSWS, BJRI and F

MOST NOTEWORTHY: K Swiss, BJ's Restaurants and Ford were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • Merrill expects the turnaround at K Swiss (NASDAQ: KSWS) to be difficult given weakening retail sales. Shares were downgraded to Sell from Neutral.
  • Jefferies cut shares of BJ's Restaurants (NASDAQ: BJRI) to Hold from Buy due to the company's high relative exposure to the subprime mortgage markets.
  • Ford (NYSE: F) was downgraded to Underperform from Peer Perform at Bear Stearns. The firm recommends taking some profits following the recent rally in shares. Shares were also cut to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan, citing valuation, and to Sell from Neutral at Merrill Lynch.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:

Mars rover is over: LMT, RTN, billionaires please inquire

Scientists at NASA plan to put one of the twin Mars rovers to sleep and limit the activities of the other robot to fulfill a NASA order to cut $4 million from the program's budget, mission team members said Monday.

The project, which was originally supposed to run for three months, is now in its fourth year, successfully exploring the terrain of Mars. It costs NASA about $20 million to keep the project going, but due to budget cuts, the space agency is forced to put its child up for adoption, so to speak. As of yet, no billionaire has stepped up to the plate, but I am hoping that someone will soon.

For the cost of a few of your average modern missiles, we are abandoning a program that has been one of NASA's most visible and productive projects.

Continue reading Mars rover is over: LMT, RTN, billionaires please inquire

Raytheon (RTN): Ready for Recession

"The recent fits and spasms of the stock market predict tough times ahead; and ironically, that's good news for Raytheon (NYSE: RTN)," says Louis Basenese, Oxford Club Associate Investment Director.

In The Oxford Insight, he notes, "When stocks are anticipating a recession, the best offense is often defense stocks -- and there's plenty of reason to expect this defense contractor to shine, even if a recession is confirmed."

"Defense will likely remain one of the largest budget items for the United States, regardless of which political party wins the fall election. And, according to JP Morgan Securities, the defense outlays of the United States actually increase, by an average of 6.5% during recession years since 1945.

"So in the end, recession or not, as the world's fifth largest defense contractor, Raytheon's sure to enjoy steady demand.

"I'm sure you've recently read, all about the large spy satellite that became disabled and was poised to re-enter earth's atmosphere with a dangerous load of toxic fuel. What few know is that Raytheon's Standard Missile-3 was specially modified to intercept the target 153 miles over the Pacific Ocean.

Continue reading Raytheon (RTN): Ready for Recession

Chasing Value: February review -- 8 stocks for 2008 -- testing my 'metal'

Two months into the year and investors' true 'metal' was tested, and mine more than most. February showed signs of improvement over January, but the last week ended hopes of any rally. The last day of January saw a 370 point drop in the Dow and February's last trading day closed with similar results, down 315 points.

The soft stock market did display many points worth noting. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was about break even for the month, indicating investors were showing some signs of support for large cap stocks, prompted in part by news of increased profits at Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) and share buy-backs at IBM Corp (NYSE: IBM).

I cannot say the same for the other major indices, NASDAQ Composite Index and Standard & Poor's 500 Index, which dropped significantly last month.

Some of my picks also sagged a little more, although not as much, while two turned into positive territory. In January, only Raytheon Co. (NYSE: RTN), the high tech, defense contractor, was up. In February, the weak dollar and inflation concerns boosted Anglo American plc (ADR) and Reliance Steel & Aluminum (NYSE: RS) -- two commodity plays.

Continue reading Chasing Value: February review -- 8 stocks for 2008 -- testing my 'metal'

Sunday Funnies: Using up our missiles

Two interesting bits of news were released Friday afternoon. First, our government had decided to intercept a descending spy satellite just before it re-enters the atmosphere. They said they were doing this because of "dangerous fuel" but wouldn't this burn up upon re-entry? Then the Defense Department announced that Raytheon Missile Systems, a unit of Raytheon Co. (NYSE: RTN) has won a $1 billion Missile Defense Agency contract boost to make 102 missiles for the Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense System.

Initially this was not enough missiles to help Raytheon's stock, which closed down 1% for the day to $65.65. However, when folks put the stories together in after hours trading RTN jumped 2.5% reaching $67.30 before the trading "pool" was cleared because the "lifeguards" had to go home, spoiling the late night speculators fun.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. To find potential opportunities and verify my track record, read Chasing Value or Serious Money. Disclosure: I do not own shares of RTN.

Defense stocks should be on your radar screen

President Bush recently submitted a $3.1 trillion dollar budget to congress with the biggest proposed increases in defense spending, and homeland security. The Pentagon would get a $35 billion increase to $515 billion for core programs, about 7% with war costs additional (but how much is additional?) This further supports my investment posture for this year and next that the defense sector is the place to be as I posted earlier today and many times over the past few months -- the BIG BUYS.

Some of our big defense contractors, all of which should benefit to some degree include: Boeing (NYSE: BA), General Dynamics (NYSE: GD), Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT), Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC), Raytheon Company (NYSE: RTN), and United Technologies (NYSE: UTX). I am not suggesting that you jump into these stocks immediately, but you should add them to your watch list. Perhaps, for some investors dollar cost averaging into them over six months would make sense. Each has a varying degree of exposure to defense spending. For example, United Technologies is the parent of Sikorsky helicopters which makes the Black Hawk. Lockheed Martin and Boeing make fighter jets. Raytheon makes defense electronics and missile while General Dynamics and Northrop Grumman supply warships to the US Navy. Northrop also makes aerial vehicles that are being used in the Iraq War.

Continue reading Defense stocks should be on your radar screen

Chasing Value: General Dynamics (GD) revisited

General Dynamics (NYSE: GD) logoIn recent months I have been recommending that investors take a look at the defense sector as a safe haven during this erratic stock market -- erratic and down. My most recent post on the subject was Chasing Value: Raytheon (RTN) up on earnings & 2008 outlook. The defense sector has beaten the S&P 500 index for eight years running and this year may mark the ninth straight.

In a previous post I trumpeted General Dynamics Corporation (NYSE: GD) and still believe in the stock. The price-to-sales is a modest 1.33. The P/E of 16 and dividend are average, but it has a healthy ROE near 20%. If you believe the forward looking P/E it is only 14. GD makes the Gulfstream aircraft for the wealthy jet-setter and the Abrams tank for the military. How many of those will need parts or replacement in the coming years?

When I was evaluating my 2008 picks I looked at most of the large defense contractors and included RTN over GD. If you look at the chart below and the original story Chasing Value: General Dynamics (GD) looking long and flying high!, you will find I was looking at General Dynamics around $90 a share. We bought in at $88 so you know I like it even more in the area of $83 where it is trading now.

Continue reading Chasing Value: General Dynamics (GD) revisited

Serious Money: AAPL, CSCO, GOOG, INTC, MSFT -- not the only tech stocks

By definition a high tech stock is a stock in a technology sector, such as software, semiconductors, networking, or biotechnology according to Investorwords.com. That covers companies like Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), Cisco Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO), Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG), Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) and Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) that are all household names.

For some reason companies that are equally if not more tech focused are not thought of as tech stocks. However, can anything be more high tech than Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (NASDAQ: ISRG) that makes robotic surgical equipment, including the required software? I understand that ISRG is in the medical products industry but it is every bit a tech company. Why does that disqualify it from being discussed as a tech stock?

I would think Apple is becomming more and more a consumer products company with a retail component. It is the new Sony Corporation (ADR) (NYSE: SNE). Maybe it should switch to the NYSE?

Continue reading Serious Money: AAPL, CSCO, GOOG, INTC, MSFT -- not the only tech stocks

Chasing Value: January review -- 8 stocks for 2008

January was a wild ride and February holds the promise of more of the same after yesterday's 370 point drop in the Warren Buffett Dow. All the major indices were down in January and so were seven of my eight picks. Only Raytheon Co. (NYSE: RTN), the high tech defense contractor, was up. My two high flyers from last year, Huaneng Power International, Inc. (ADR) (NYSE: HNP) and Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO), were the biggest losers.

I have not changed my opinion of these stocks from that of the original story Chasing Value: Final list -- 8 stocks for 2008 and I am following them closely for buying opportunities. We have already added more Newcastle Investment Corp. (NYSE: NCT) and Huaneng Power to our holdings.

Among the indices, the DJIA lost the least and the NASDAQ lost the most. The average return for my eight picks was -7.82%. This underperformed the average of the indices that was -7.58% -- but my new stalking horse Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B) bested both, so Buffett is still the man.

Now including dividends for my picks which average 3.91% divided by 12 for the one month allows for an additional .326%, reducing the loss to -7.494%. Using 1.8% for the average dividend of the indices divided by 12 adds 0.15%, reducing the loss to -7.43%. The dividends tighted things up. BRK.B does not pay a dividend.

The following are my eight picks with the starting share price as of December 28, 2007:

Continue reading Chasing Value: January review -- 8 stocks for 2008

Chasing Value: Raytheon (RTN) up on earnings & 2008 outlook

Defense sector favorite Ratheon Co (NYSE: RTN) reported a very positive fourth quarter and an optimistic outlook for the year ahead. This has sent the stock up over 2% or about $1.50. It closed Wednesday at $63.43 and was trading near $65.00 per share midday.

RTN was one of my picks for the year Chasing Value: Raytheon in defense of the nation and your portfolio, and my best performer so far. I will be reporting on the Chasing Value: Final list -- 8 stocks for 2008 first month results next week.

Lower pension costs and a tax benefit helped Raytheon post a 64% increase in its fourth-quarter profits [WSJ -subscription required]. Net income rose to $598 million from $365 million in the same quarter a year earlier. Raytheon also said its backlog increased 13%, and it boosted its outlook for 2008 to between $3.65 and $3.80 a share.

I still think that in 2008 the defense sector will outperform the overall market. Raytheon has an above market P/E ratio of about 19, but its price-to-sales ratio of 1.17 is not unreasonable. It also pays a dividend. Although RTN is not generally considered a technology stock in the same breadth as computer and internet companies, I believe it should be and that it offers superior market value to most of them.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the design and research principal for an architecture & planning firm. He doesn't own shares of RTN.

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Last updated: November 22, 2008: 03:09 AM

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