Famous cruise line entity Carnival Corp. (NYSE: CCL), which competes with Royal Caribbean (NYSE: RCL) and The Walt Disney Company's (NYSE: DIS) vacation voyages, reported earnings for the third quarter on Thursday. The company held up well during the summer months. Revenues increased 11% to $4.8 billion. Earnings per diluted share did decrease slightly from a year ago, dropping two pennies to $1.65. But management reported that the number was better than expected because of lower costs and the positive effect of an insurance recovery. As far as Wall Street estimates were concerned, the bottom line beat by a wide margin. This item says that Carnival bested estimates by $0.07.
Another cool thing is that Carnival narrowed its fiscal-year guidance in a most positive way. Before, the company expected that it would book earnings somewhere between $2.70 and $2.80 per share. Well, now management thinks it'll do between $2.79 and $2.81. That shows confidence in the business, and it looks like the market is pretty happy with the results. Taking a look at the stock at the time of this writing, I see that is up almost 3%, and that volume is decent so far.
I personally would not buy Carnival at this time, however, even though there are some sound elements to this story. It does sport a very good dividend yield of 4%, but it's not close to the 52-week low, and one could argue that the upgraded guidance is confirmation that the stock could be a buy. Still, the market is volatile, the economy is questionable, and energy prices remain a concern. Plus, the earnings release did note some weakness in occupancy levels for advance bookings. I'd be fearful of looking at Carnival before a pullback brings the stock in a little. Long term, though, I do think the company will prosper, since I think it is a great brand in the leisure business.
Disclosure: I own Disney; positions can change at any time.
Carnival Corp. (NYSE: CCL), a provider of cruise vacations and competitor of Royal Caribbean (NYSE: RCL), issued its Q2 earnings numbers on Thursday. Revenues rose more than 16% to $3.4 billion. Net earnings were 49 cents a share. That wasn't too impressive, considering that it was a penny better than the previous year's quarter. However, according to Briefing.com, Carnival killed the earnings expectations of analysts by 8 cents. Net sales were also higher than what Wall Street's expectations.
This performance sent the stock up more than 5%. I think investors need to be a little careful here because Carnival's management has become cautious about the next quarter because of energy costs. The company expects earning of $1.56 to $1.58 per share in Q3. Last year's Q3 saw bottom-line income of $1.67 per share. So, growth will not be found in next quarter's report.
Yet, again, the market didn't seem to mind, as it was high off the expectations-beating data. Is Carnival, therefore, a buy? Well, I don't think it's overly expensive considering the P/E ratio and the yield attached to the stock. But the direction of oil prices has me concerned. Not only will that increase costs for Carnival, but it will compete with the discretionary dollars of potential vacationers. I see the valuation case, but the current state of the market makes me reluctant to pull the trigger on this stock. Some would argue that all this is baked into the shares since they did so well yesterday, but I'm not convinced.
Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned here; positions can change at any time.
Citigroup downgraded Sandisk (NASDAQ:SNDK) to "hold: from "buy" according toBriefing.com. The news service also reports that Bank of America resumed coverage of Boeing (NYSE:BA) with a "neutral" rating.
Douglas A. Mcintyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Carnival, Royal Caribbean, BankUnited and Royal DSM were today's noteworthy downgrades:
ABN downgraded shares of Carnival Corp. (NYSE: CCL) to Hold from Buy and Royal Caribbean Cruises (NYSE: RCL) to Sell from Buy as they believe the slowing economy will drive slower demand over the next 12 months.
Suntrust downgraded BankUnited (NASDAQ: BKUNA) to Neutral from Buy citing the company's intention to raise the number of Class A Common Stock to 500M from 200M.
Royal DSM (OTC: RDSMY) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman on valuation following the recent rally.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
WebMD (NASDAQ: WBMD) was downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Royal Caribbean, Alkermes and ASML Holdings were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Morgan Stanley downgraded shares of Royal Caribbean (NYSE: RCL) to Equal Weight from Overweight to reflect margin concerns due to the high oil prices and lowered their target to $37 from $40. However, the firm maintains an Overweight rating on rival Carnival (NYSE: CCL).
Baird downgraded Alkermes (NASDAQ: ALKS) to Neutral from Outperform following the company's reduced Risperdal Consta guidance. The firm does not recommend buying shares.
UBS cut ASML Holdings (NASDAQ: ASML) to Neutral from Buy to reflect order uncertainty heading into 2009.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
U.S. Airways (NYSE: LCC) was cut at Credit Suisse to Underperform from Outperform.
Workers at U.S. auto parts maker American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings (NYSE: AXL) are set to return to work next week after approving a new four-year contract that contains steep pay cuts and other concessions. The three-months strike crippled crippled production at a General Motors (NYSE: GM) plant.
Six Flags Inc. (NYSE: SIX) said it will cut ticket prices by $10 at its St. Louis park as customers are cash strapped these days due to the tightening economic conditions and rising prices for everyday commodities. Meanwhile, Fitch Ratings downgraded some of Six Flags Inc.'s ratings and put them on Ratings Watch Negative due to a proposed notes exchange.
UAL Corp. (NYSE: UAUA) unit United Airlines and US Airlines Group (NYSE: LCC) are postponing the launch of new China routes because of high fuel costs after gaining approval for this coveted route only a few months ago.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: GFI Group, Wells Fargo and Cirrus Logic were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Goldman downgraded GFI Group Inc (NASDAQ: GFIG) to Neutral from Buy following the company's announcement that credit chief, Donal Fewer, left the company to go to a rival firm and that about two dozen brokers may defect to follow him.
Oppenheimer cut Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE: WFC) to Underperform from Perform as they believe the company is under-reserved by at least $4.5B and that there is significant room for multiple contraction.
Cirrus Logic Inc (NASDAQ: CRUS) was downgraded at Jefferies to Hold from Buy on valuation, as they believe the risk/reward is no longer favorable at current levels.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Limelight Networks, Diebold and Charles & Colvard were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Jefferies upgraded shares of Limelight Networks (NASDAQ: LLNW) to Hold from Underperform on valuation and believes it impossible to know what will happen to the company from here. On the downside, Jefferies notes a permanent injunction means the business is nearly worthless, but on the upside, is the possibility of sale to Akamai (NASDAQ: AKAM) or a large telecomm service provider.
Baird raised Diebold (NYSE: DBD) to Outperform from Neutral citing expectations of a higher bid from United Technologies (NYSE: UTX).
Merriman upgraded shares of Charles & Colvard (NASDAQ: CTHR) to Buy from Neutral on valuation, as they believe the current share price does not account for the potential wholesale value of the company's manufactured inventory and method patent. They believe Charles & Colvard is a potential acquisition target.
OTHER UPGRADES:
Goldman raised Eaton (NYSE: ETN) to Conviction Buy from Neutral and added Royal Caribbean (NYSE: RCL) to its Conviction Buy List.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Atmel, Skyworks, Alcatel-Lucent, Parexel and Map Pharma were today's noteworthy initiations:
Kaufman Bros. initiated Atmel (NASDAQ: ATML) with a Buy rating and $6 target, as they believe the company's increasing focus around its core microcontroller business can drive an improved growth and profitability profile going forward and would be buyers at current levels.
The firm also started shares of Skyworks (NASDAQ: SWKS) with a Buy rating and a $10 target, as they like the company's balanced customer positioning and find the stock attractively valued at current levels.
JP Morgan initiated Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU) with an Overweight rating and believes the risks are more than fully priced into shares at current levels.
Parexel (NADSAQ: PRXL) was initiated with a Neutral rating at Broadpoint, as they believe the company's improved execution is already priced into shares.
Deutsche Bank finds shares of Map Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: MAPP) attractively valued given the opportunity from the company's two late stage product candidates, UDB and Tempo Migraine. The firm started shares off with a Buy rating and $19 target.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: EMC Corporation, Tesco PLC, SL Green Realty, Ariba and Motorola were today's noteworthy upgrades:
EMC Corporation (NYSE: EMC) was upgraded to Outperform from Peer Perform at Bear Stearns on valuation. Shares were also upgraded to Buy from Hold at Citigroup after coming off restriction to reflect the long-term benefits of virtualization and valuation.
Tesco (OTC: TSCDY) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Citigroup on valuation and the company's growth prospects.
SL Green Realty Corporation (NYSE: SLG) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Keybanc based on valuation. The firm views concerns regarding NYC office demand as overblown.
Cowen expects FY07 to be a tough year for Ariba Inc (NASDAQ: ARBA) as benefits from the on-demand subscription model are realized. The firm upgraded shares to Outperform from Market Perform.
Motorola Inc (NYSE: MOT) was upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital citing firming trends in its handset division.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Select newspaper stocks and Dolan Media were today's noteworthy initiations:
Banc of America initiated six stocks in the newspaper sector with Neutral ratings: Gannett (NYSE: GCI) was started with a $51.50 target, citing a lack of clarity into the company's acquisition strategy; New York Times (NYSE: NYT) was started with a $21 target, reflecting a lack of clarity into the company's acquisition strategy; E.W. Scripps (NYSE: SSP) was started with a $43 target, as the firm feels the company's Interactive division is a "big question mark" that could drag down company growth; McClatchy Co (NYSE: MNI) was started with a $26 target, as the firm is positive longer-term, but sees downside risk to 2007 consensus estimates; Lee Enterprises (NYSE: LEE) was initiated with a $19.50 target; Gatehouse Media (NYSE: GHS) was started with a $12.50 target.
Dolan Media (NYSE: DM) was initiated with an Outperform rating and $24 target at Piper Jaffray. Piper believes DM's Q3 guidance is conservative given the default rates in July and August and notes the company processes defaults in two of the three highest default rate states. Dolan Media was also started with a Buy rating and $26 target at Merrill Lynch and with a Buy rating and $28 target at Craig-Hallum.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
Think Equity assumed coverage of Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) and Micron Technology (NYSE: MU) with an Accumulate rating and $26 target and a Buy rating and $18 target, respectively.
Hurricane Dean's presence in the Western Caribbean has forced over a dozen cruise ships to quickly change their itinerary towards the eastern side of the Caribbean this week. The storm, currently moving as a Class Three hurricane through the Yucatan peninsula, has affected Carnival Corp. (NYSE: CCL) the most.
According to the company's site, as of Sunday, August 18th, the itineraries of over ten Carnival ships have been altered, forcing them to dock in Eastern ports-of-call or cancel a part of their stay. CruiseCritic.com has reported that a dozen of Carnival's ships were impacted from Dean. The company could not be reached for comment. Only three Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (NYSE: RCL) ships needed to steer clear of the storm.
Despite many weather stations calling Jamaica "Ground Zero" all weekend, the island nation received a glancing blow on Sunday. Gene Sloan of USAToday's "The Cruise Log" reported today that Royal Caribbean will be the first to test Jamaica's waters on Wednesday, as originally scheduled. Carnival's spokesman Vance Gulliksen told Sloan their line expects to resume calls in Jamaica next week and plans to return to the Caymans as early as later this week, but is "awaiting final confirmation."
The major question is the impact of Dean on Cozumel and other Mexican ports on the Yucatan Coast. Check out CruiseCritic.com's Hurricane Zone for an updated list of the damage reports.
JP Morgan upgraded shares of Advance Auto Parts to Neutral from Underweight citing increased confidence in the company's turnaround efforts.
Solectron was upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Credit Suisse to reflect the company's acquisition by Flextronics International (NASDAQ: FLEX).
Carnival was upgraded to Strong Buy from Outperform and Royal Caribbean was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Raymond James.
OTHER UPGRADES:
BHP Billiton Ltd (NYSE: BHP) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Citigroup on valuation and their expectations for higher commodity prices.
Matrix USA upgraded shares of Callaway Golf Company (NYSE: ELY) to Hold from Strong Sell, as the firm believes growing demand for new products is driving positive fundamental trends.
Lehman upgraded Dow Chemical (NYSE: DOW) to Overweight from Equal Weight, citing the potential for an accretive acquisition of buyback.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Wendy's International Inc (WEN) and NOVA Chemicals Corp (NCX) were today's most notable downgrades:
Matrix USA downgraded shares of fast-food restaurant Wendy's International Inc (NYSE: WEN) to Sell from Hold to reflect the company's slowing revenues, increasing expenses and valuation.
CIBC downgraded NOVA Chemicals Corp (NYSE: NCX) to Sector Underperformer from Sector Performer, lowering their target to $27.50 from $31 as they believe margins will be squeezed in 2008 once Middle Eastern supply begins to impact export markets.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Following the company's lower guidance, UBS downgraded National Semiconductor Corp (NYSE: NSM) to Neutral from Buy with a $25 target, while Citigroup downgraded National Semi to Hold from Buy with a $27 target.
Recent strength in Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (NYSE: RCL) forced Bank of America to remove it from their Top Pick list.
Jefferies downgraded shares of Triad Hospitals Inc (NYSE: TRI) to Hold from Buy pending the buyout.
JP Morgan downgraded shares of Altiris Inc (NASDAQ: ATRS) to Neutral from Outperform based on the Symantec (SYMC) acquisition.
Thomas Weisel downgraded Medimmune Inc (NASDAQ: MEDI) to Market Perform from Outperform on valuation.
Matrix USA downgraded Secure Computing Corp (NASDAQ: SCUR) to Sell from Buy on valuation.
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