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Home Purchase Loan Demand Slumps to 13-Year Low

The $8,000 tax credit for first time home buyers has ended. That created a vacuum. Home loans fell off 5.7% in the week ending June 4, the lowest level since 1997. Purchase applications dropped 35% below their level four weeks ago. Let's keep in mind that applications are a good predictor of future sales.

The refinance market is also suffering. The MBA refinance index fell 14.3%, after rising for four straight weeks. This is taking place even when mortgage rates are below 5%. 30 year loans are down to 4.81%.

Continue reading Home Purchase Loan Demand Slumps to 13-Year Low

Three Signs Housing Has Bottomed

Whether you want to believe it or not, more indicators pop up each week that point to improvements in the housing market. Either we're at the bottom now, or we will be soon.

Of course, I just bought my first ever home in September of 2009 (a short-sale in Montgomery County, Md.) so perhaps I'm biased. But even in the worst markets there are signs of life in housing that should encourage investors and homebuyers alike.

Here are three top signs that the housing market has bottomed out.

Continue reading Three Signs Housing Has Bottomed

Has China Averted a Real Estate Crash?

On November 9, 2008, China initiated a $586 billion stimulus package aimed at soothing a national economy that was beginning to breed discontent. The program involved lowering credit restrictions, expanding social welfare programs, and a complement of infrastructure improvement incentives. Unfortunately, the program has worked quite well.

The Chinese stimulus plan created such a free flow of funds, people started buying second and third homes. The real estate market there began running full tilt. Construction entered a boom phase, aided by Olympic excitement. Real estate values went through the roof.

Continue reading Has China Averted a Real Estate Crash?

Pending Home Sales Surge 21.1% in March

Pending home sales rose 21.1% in March over 2009 numbers. The big driver was the expiration of the first time home buyer credit. Contracts had to be signed by the end of March to qualify. Nevertheless, these numbers are encouraging.

The National Association of Realtors' (NAT)' index stood at 102.9, up 5.3% It should be noted that pending sales lead existing sales by one to two months.

Separately, the Commerce Department released their numbers on manufactured goods. Excluding defense, factory orders were up 1.3%. Non defense capital goods, excluding aircraft were up 4.5%

Continue reading Pending Home Sales Surge 21.1% in March

Five Reasons the Housing Market Is Improving

There's a whole lot of fuss on Wall Street right now about the impact of a first-time homebuyer credit expiring this week. The $8,000 question? Whether the housing market will continue to improve without the payday, or whether we are in for another round of falling home prices and rising foreclosures.

There's no doubt that 2010 so far has been very profitable for housing stocks. But are those profits going to stick, and is the housing market going to continue to improve?

Continue reading Five Reasons the Housing Market Is Improving

New Home Sales Soar in March

new home salesThe housing market continues to improve, and March was a very good month for new home sales.

New home sales were up by 26.9% during the month, which is the biggest one month increase in 47 years, with home buyers taking advantage of the tax credit that is about to expire.

Continue reading New Home Sales Soar in March

Why the Market Is Wrong on Verizon

You'd think that Wall Street would have learned its lesson after the market's crash in 2008 and early 2009. But already investors are returning to short-sighted, self-destructive behavior by chasing fads and forgetting the facts.

Look at the Morgan Stanley U.S. REIT Index (RMZ), for example. It has been flying high even in the face of horrific commercial and residential real estate figures. Since February 9, RMZ is up about 25%. The index has skyrocketed over 150% from its March 2009 low -- about double the gains for the broader market.

Continue reading Why the Market Is Wrong on Verizon

Simon Properties Still Wants a Piece of GGP

SPG makes another offer for GGPEarlier this year, General Growth Properties Inc. (GGP) rejected a $10 billion buyout offer from rival Simon Property Group (SPG), but Simon Property is not giving up completely. Wednesday Simon Property announced it would up its offer to $10 per share for GGP in exchange for 25% of the company.

The offer that was quickly rejected a couple of months ago placed a $9 value on GGP stock, and rose some anti-trust concerns.

Continue reading Simon Properties Still Wants a Piece of GGP

Bank Failures Hit 42, Expected to Exceed 2009's 140

Friday marked the failure of another bank, pushing the 2010 total to 42. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation took over Beach First National Bank in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina.

The bank had $585.1 million in assets and $516 in deposits. Bank of North Carolina, based in Thomasville, is taking over the failed bank's assets and deposits. The Beach First failure is expected to cost the FDIC $130.3 million.

A growing number of loan defaults, especially in the commercial real estate sector, have put considerable pressure on banks across the country. In fact, failures are expected to peak this year, exceeding the 140 that occurred in 2009, which was the worst year since 1992.

Continue reading Bank Failures Hit 42, Expected to Exceed 2009's 140

Distressed Home Sales Back Up Near 2009 Peak

With more and more homeowners upside down (no equity), the trend is for homeowners to walk away and file personal bankruptcy. This double whammy is adding to the pool of distressed sales.

In January, distressed sales accounted for 29% of total sales. This was just shy of the record 32% set in January 2009.

Continue reading Distressed Home Sales Back Up Near 2009 Peak

Will the Homebuyer Tax Credit Be Extended? Let the Word Games Begin!

With the homebuyer tax credit set to expire at the end of April, most media outlets are reported on its expiration as a done deal -- which is strange given that the program has already been expanded and extended twice.

CNNMoney reports
that ". . .this is absolutely, positively your last chance to claim the credit. (Probably.) So don't wait, thinking the credit will be extended for a third time."

Continue reading Will the Homebuyer Tax Credit Be Extended? Let the Word Games Begin!

Is the U.S. Housing Sector Regressing?

The recent news on the U.S. housing front is not encouraging. New homes sales have now fallen for four straight months, hitting a record-low 308,000-unit annualized rate in February.

Meanwhile, existing home sales slipped in February to a 5.02-million-unit annualized pace, according to National Association of Realtors data.

Equally troubling, inventories in each home category have risen to uncomfortable levels -- rising to a 9.2-month supply of new homes, and an 8.6-month supply of existing homes. Typically, a normal, healthy housing market has a 3-5 month supply in each category.

Continue reading Is the U.S. Housing Sector Regressing?

Existing Home Sales Fall in February

The housing market is still in the doldrums. Existing home sales fell .6% in February to an annual rate of 5.02 million, as reported by the National Association of Realtors.

This number is important because existing home sales account for 90% of the market. The Obama administration extended the first-time home buyer program until this June 30 for contracts signed before April 30. So far there has been little or not bump up in sales

Another disheartening statistic is a jump of 9.5% in previously owned homes on the market to 3.59 million. At this rate it would take 8.5 months to sell these homes.

Continue reading Existing Home Sales Fall in February

Opportunistic Real Estate Buying By Private Equity Poised to Pop in 2010

Look for fund-raising by opportunistic private equity real estate funds to pick up this year. According to private equity research firm Preqin, 182 opportunistic vehicles are out there trying to raise money right now, with a target of $95 billion.

To put this objective in perspective, 2009 was dismal, with only 59 opportunistic real estate funds pulling in $26 billion in fresh capital. The sector was far more successful in 2008, however, raising $84 billion across 84 funds and making it the sector's best year for fund-raising. So, if the 2010 funds reach their goal, it will have overcome the woes of last year and even top the one before.

Continue reading Opportunistic Real Estate Buying By Private Equity Poised to Pop in 2010

Comfort Zone Investing: Investing Options If You're Worried About Inflation

Inflation. The Federal Reserve Chief and the governors believe it to be the worst of all possible scourges for the U.S. economy. The specter of it looms large as the government throws more and more money at problems like unemployment, mortgages, and bank bailouts. It would seem inflation is inevitable as that money sloshes around in the economy, driving up prices for fewer goods as manufacturers slow or stop production due to lack of demand. So what's an investor to do?

Continue reading Comfort Zone Investing: Investing Options If You're Worried About Inflation

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Last updated: May 28, 2012: 10:17 PM

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