It's encouraging to see success with new ventures – especially in times like these. And, it looks like Redfin fits the bill.

In June, the company posted its first profit, with a 300% year-over-year increase in unique visitors. This is certainly impressive since Redfin is an online provider of real estate services. In fact, the consensus has been that eventually the company would eventually die.

Apartment vacancies in the United States hit their highest level in 22 years in the second quarter of 2009. Job losses are to blame, according to Bloomberg, as tenant demand falls when people don't have any income. Vacancies rose to 7.5% from 6.1% year-over-year, according to Reis Inc. But this still doesn't reach the 1987 level of 7.6%. In June, the U.S. unemployment rate hit a 26-year high, with payrolls dropping faster than expectations.

Conventional wisdom has it that potential homebuyers turn into renters when the job market softens. The rental pool is shrinking, however, leading to the high rate of apartment vacancies as landlords struggle to fill units. Asking rents for apartments fell 0.6% last quarter (for the second in a row), according to Reis, the largest fall since the company started to track this measure in 1999. Overall, asking rents (including other types of residences) were off 0.7% year-over-year, down to an average of $1,040 a month.

While the Blackstone Group (NYSE: BX) is primarily known as a private equity firm, this actually understates things. In fact, it is a diverse global platform that spans hedge funds, corporate advisory and real estate investments.

Actually, the real estate segment is getting bigger. This week Blackstone announced that it raised a $4.3 billion real estate fund with the main focus on opportunities in Europe. It's called the Blackstone Real Estate Partners Europe III fund (for whatever reason, these funds can be a mouthful).

Your mission, should you decide to accept it, Mr. Phelps, is to boost the economy and increase employment but not allow inflation to run rampant. As usual, the secretary will disavow any knowledge of your actions should you fail. This message will self-destruct in five seconds. Good luck, Mr. Phelps. Or should that be Mr. Bernanke?

That, in a nut shell, is the fine line the Fed must walk. It has to get the economy going and more people back to work, mostly by pumping money into the economy. But it can't put too much money into the system or inflation will run rampant. Right now, the presses are running 24/7, and the money is flying out the Treasury's and Fed's windows, seemingly to almost anyone walking underneath them. The stimulus package is in full swing. But what signs are there that it's working?

The median price for existing homes in California gained 1.4% in April, posting an increase for a second month in a row. The bold are calling this the bottom (or close to it), though another financial market surprise could change the rules as it did six months ago. However, if the small uptick is real, it could mean that the worst is behind us, as some use the California residential real estate market as a leading indicator for the broader economy.

In one of the least enlightening stories you'll ever see, The Wall Street Journal's normally insightful "Ahead of the Tape" column reports (subscription required) that "A full recovery for housing, and maybe the broader economy, depends on a third step: Prices must stop falling. On that front, as with other economic data, the "second derivative" is improving -- things are still getting worse, but at a slower rate."

That's right: In order for the real estate market to be good again, real estate prices have to stop crashing. In a related story, The Washington Nationals will need to start winning baseball games if they are to have a shot at playing in the post-season.

• CDS holders to push GM into bankruptcy despite salvage efforts? (Financial Times)
• Recession creates first April budget deficit since 1983 (BloggingStocks)
• Biofuels fall off a cliff, hard to find opportunity (Earth2Web)
• Georgia Gulf near bankruptcy (Zack's)
• More home owners unable to sell houses opt to rent them out (BloggingStocks)

Even as the government tries to clean up after the housing excesses of the past few years, The Wall Street Journal opines (subscription required) that it's also sowing the seeds of a new housing bust with Federal Housing Administration loans.

FHA loans are federally insured mortgages made available to first-time home buyers. They require down payments as low as 3.5% (but it's really less because closing costs can be rolled in) and a credit score of just 620 -- far below the 700+ required by most private lenders right now.

As the subprime market has completely dried up, marginal home buyers are returning to the FHA, leading to a huge increase in FHA loan volume. Nearly a third of mortgages are FHA loans, up from just 2% in 2006.