This weekend I saw a commercial for a Chrysler car that would come with $2.99 gas for three years (up to 12,000 miles a year). They announced the deal last week and Suzuki soon followed with a deal for up to three months of free gas, up to $470 for the summer.

The Union of Concerned Scientists called Chrysler's offer a gimmick that tries to "fool consumers into overlooking its vehicles poor fuel economy and environmental performance." The concerned scientists figured that the deal would only save consumers $400 a year. Boosting mileage by just three miles per gallon would give drivers the same financial bonus -- and would add up to $3,000 over the life of the car.

Of course, the worried scientists came up with these stats all the way back when gas was only $3.61 a gallon. Now it's $4, so the savings would be more like $650 a year. But their point about the lifetime savings from fuel efficiency is even stronger. (I don't know all the parameters they used in this part of the formula, but my guess is the lifetime savings would go up to about $5,000).

Where are Americans spending their rebate checks? Apparently Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT) and Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST). Both reported fantastic sales for May. Wal-Mart explicitly tied their success to the checks. "We're seeing some benefits from the stimulus checks," Wal-Mart Chief Executive Eduardo Castro-Wright said in a company press release. Wal-Mart same store sales were up 3.9% (4.4% if you include gas).

Costco sales were even better, up 5% from last year (7% if you count gas). Costco saw sales of $5.77 billion, up about $600 million. The theory is that people are turning to Wal-Mart and Costco because we're broke and because we're so freaked out by gas prices, we'd rather just drive to one big store. Nice theory, but Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT) is in the same business and saw sales drop 0.7%.

How many of us have spent our rebate checks at Wal-Mart and Costco? About 73% of Costco's stores are in the U.S. (The foreign stores got a big boost from the weak U.S. dollar). So, let's say very roughly 73% of Costco's $600 million sales increase was in the U.S. Or, Costco took in an extra $438 million thanks to the rebate checks. (Yeah, I know, the sales probably would've been up anyway, if only for inflation). At Wal-Mart domestic stores saw a $1.4 billion increase. Assuming we all spent our $600 in one place (just to make the math simpler), that would mean a little over 3 million of us (3,063,333) spent our rebated checks at Wal-Mart and Costco in May.

With global markets selling off on fears that President Bush's stimulus package won't be enough to stave off a recession, The Wall Street Journal reports (subscription required) on how Americans might spend the $150 billion in refund payments Uncle Sam may dole out: "At that rate, consumers could expect to receive checks ranging from $600 to $1,000 per household. Consumers are likely to pick one of three options for the money: Spend it, use it to pay down debt, or save it."

Well wasn't that enlightening? Apparently sagging home values and a sputtering economy have pulled the fourth option off the table: burning the rebate checks in a satanic ritual involving incense and The Ethel Merman Disco Album.

On a slightly more serious note, there is an air of cynicism surrounding the whole stimulus package (Quotes from the WSJ piece):

"Getting money to people quickly is good and getting money to low- and moderate-income people is good to get a bigger bang for the buck. - Ben Bernanke