Market historian, money manager and newsletter editor, Jim Stack avoids short-term forecasting but has an uncanny record of being properly positioned for major market turns (gaining 81% since 12/99 versus a gain of 13.9% for the S&P over the same period).

Here, the editor of InvesTech Market Analyst assesses the odds for a bear market and/or a recession, looking at various metrics from housing and consumer confidence to interest rates and the Presidential cycle.

"Consumer Confidence, as measured by the Conference Board, has fallen over 24 points in just 4 months – a precipitous decline matched only by past recessions, or in the first year coming out of recession. Housing and automobile sales are clearly in a recession, but other sectors of the economy still seem very resilient .

"Unemployment is now running at 5%, up 0.6% pts. from a 5-year low of 4.4% early last year. It doesn't take an economics major to look back on 60 years of unemployment history and recognize this is not good news for the U.S. economy.

"We have review all periods when the Unemployment Rate has risen 0.6% pts. from a 2-year low. In 6 out of 9 instances, the economy was already in recession. In the remaining 3, a recession wasn't far off. Are these the kind of odds you want to bet against, as an investor?