Consumer borrowing fell for the eighth straight month in September. This record-setting streak is due largely to tightening by lenders, unemployment and the conservative preference to pay down debt rather than spend. This widespread fit of fiscal responsibility, economists fret, could prevent a recovery from taking root, since consumer spending is responsible for 70% of the U.S. economy. This conventional thinking, of course, overlooks the fact that an eventual increase in spending that isn't fueled by consumer spending will yield a recovery that's more likely to last.

According to the Federal Reserve, borrowing fell at an annual rate of $14.8 billion in September -- it's biggest drop since July and much larger than the $10 billion predicted by economists. The behavior is exactly what you'd find in people worried about losing their jobs or focused on rebuilding safety funds and investment portfolios. Those who want to borrow are finding banks won't be complicit this time, as they clamp down on lending practices.

Work smarter not harder. Do more with less. Increase your output. Become more productive.

You've heard all this before, right? What it all means is that layoffs are coming, and the survivors are going to have to take on a hell of a lot more work, with no increase in support, resources or compensation. As cuts come, the survivors fight to survive, and succeeding means that a new benchmark is set. If you can survive without the help you used to have, it's easier to defer hiring for a while.

The National Bankruptcy Research Center reported that there were 135,914 bankruptcies in October, up 9%. One third of the bankruptcies were filed under Chapter 13. Chapter 13 requires that the court set up a five year repayment plan for debts owed.

In addition business bankruptcies were up 7% for the same period.The forecast is for 1.4 million bankruptcies in 2009, the highest since 2005. In that year Congress revamped the bankruptcy laws to make it more difficult to wipe out all of a person's debts. There was a rush of filings in the months just before the new law was enacted.

Do you see a rebound?

The Mall of America would be a great practice field for the Minnesota Vikings, fall and winter clothes are already 40% off at Macy's, and the Palms in Vegas is mailing me coupons.

Recently, I went out to eat with some friends: One owns a construction business that has come to a standstill; two are media types out of work; and one is the owner of a small manufacturing company, who is laying people off as fast as she can and is now worried about her own survival. And I'm sure you've heard similar tales of woes from your family, friends and neighbors.

The Commerce Department reported Tuesday that housing starts rose a bit in September, helped by a rise in single-family home construction, but this bit of good news came with some bad news that applications for new home construction were down in the month.

According to the report, construction of new homes and apartments rose by 0.5% in the month, to an annualized rate of 590,000 units. While any growth for housing starts comes as good news in the current market, it is not as good as it appears at first glance, considering that analysts had been expecting to see the annualized rate increase to 610,000 units.

The recession is only over if you ask the right people. While some sectors are starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel, consumers remain concerned. It may be tempting to listen to the experts over the average Joe, but the former don't control 70% of the U.S. economy. So, as long as people are worried abou unemployment (which continues to rise), the levels of debt they carry and whether they're at risk of foreclosure, the recession will live on in the hearts of those who write checks and swipe credit cards.

It's going to get worse before it gets better, according to Stone & McCarthy Research. Early 2010 has "the more troublesome outlook," as the economy will have to walk on its own, the research firm says. This year, it's had a pair of crutches: tax credits for first-time home buyers and the cash-for-clunkers program. So, if the stimulus hasn't taken hold by the end of the year, the first quarter could be a bruiser.

The firm adds that "continued growth in aggregate demand" is needed, bringing the discussion back to consumer spending . . . which is where it will always land. We're likely to see the 3.2% growth rate from July through September drop to 2.4% at the end of the year because the crutches will have been gone. And, let's not forget that unemployment is expected to break the 10% level next year.

We've watched stock market numbers bounce around for two years. Unemployment stats have served as unpleasant reminders that, for some, leading indicators haven't translated to reality. We look for so many ways to understand the brutal economic environment with which we've had to contend, and all the choices can make your head spin. So, let's make it simple. Here are eight ways to tack a label onto the financial world in which we live.

1. Lost market value
Total stock market losses from October 2007's top to March 2009's bottom: $11.2 trillion
Total gains in the stock market since the bottom: $4.6 trillion
Lost ground: $6.6 trillion

2. Bad days
Percentage of the 10 worst days in history for the Dow Jones Industrial Average that happened in 2008, by point drops: 60%
Percentage of the 10 worst days in history for the DJIA that happened in 2008, by percentage drops: 30%

3. Mutual funds
Value of mutual fund assets at the end of 2007: $6.5 trillion
... and a year later: $3.7 million
Lost value: $2.8 trillion

But, it got a little better at the end of August 2009: $4.5 trillion (value of assets)

The U.S. stock market touched an all-time recovery high on Friday. Based on the technicals, the market should go higher. However, two analysts in particular have differing views.

John Lekas of Leader Capital and Michael Cuggino, portfolio manager at Permanent Portfolio Funds, share their views on the market. Lekas bases his predictions on the ever-growing unemployment looming over the market. The unemployment number was at 785,000 last month and that number is expected to get worse. Lekas states: "So, 26 to 27 million people who are out of work isn't going to help the economy."

We've heard from the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve and they say that our recession is ending. We have a 50% bounce in the stock market and we have loads of statistics pointing to a recovery, Now, however, we hear a different voice, one that is steeped in reality, that takes the pulse of business, that is on the front lines, in the trenches so to speak. Let's listen in:

The U.S. is still in a recession which may last until 2010 according to the Association for Financial Professionals. The poll was carried out on Monday and surveyed 1,000 chief financial officers and treasury executives. Here are their findings: