A new bit of research is out that shows CEOs are feeling the effects of the economy, much like everyone else...

JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM)'s CEO Jamie Dimon recently stated that the recession in the American economy is "just starting."

As if to confirm Dimon's pessimistic view, the news is that JP Morgan will soon fire 4,000 employees, according to a Bloomberg report. The layoffs are being driven by two major factors: the "slowing environment" (try 'snowballing recession') and the sudden acquisition of 14,000 Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) employees.

Amazingly, Dimon reports that JP Morgan had found positions for 6,000 of the Bear employees. That seems like an awful lot of people to take on during a slowdown, but Dimon stated that Morgan was keeping only the very best Bear people and hoping to take on some of the firm's business as well.

Unfortunately for (some of) the people at JP Morgan, about 2,000 of the layoffs at JPM will be of Morgan people who are being replaced by Bear people. The other 2,000 will be Morgan employees who won't be able to blame Bear for their problems. (I'm not sure which is worse.)

Dimon did offer two bits of more optimistic news. He said that the integration of bear Stearns and Morgan is going smoothly -- although it's hard to know how much you can trust that statement, since what else is he going to say about that? And he said that in his view, the credit crunch is 75% over.

So that may offer a hint of brighter days ahead -- for his bank at least. For the broader economy, though, it still looks like dark days ahead.

Merrill Lynch (NYSE:MER) says that the rebate checks that are about to hit those tens of millions of taxpayers won't help the economy avoid a recession. That makes sense. Most of the money will have to go to pay for gas.

According to Reuters, Merrill claims "The U.S. economy is in a recession and stimulus from a government tax rebate later this quarter will only temporarily stem a fall in consumer spending." Well said.

When the economic stimulus package was first conceived, it might have worked. But, things have changed. A lot.

Most of the money handed out by the government is likely to be spent on high food and fuel prices. That will hardly be an incentive for people to buy a new Cadillac or build a swimming pool. A taxpayer getting a check for $600 could use all of that on gasoline between now and the end of the year.

Another factor in the Merrill formula is that house prices may fall another 15% to 20% before reaching a bottom. People may simply put the money in their mattresses to make mortgage payments.

The rebate checks are good for keeping people's heads above water, but they are unlikely to increase consumer spending.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com and author of the Ten Stocks Under $10 newsletter.

April saw a 65% increase in foreclosures from the same month a year ago.

The numbers pretty much speak for themselves, with 243,353 receiving notices in April. This is a vast increase from April 2007, when "only" 147,708 homes received the same notice. This was also a 4% increase from March. The numbers are based on a report from RealtyTrac Inc.

Homeowners in California and Florida are among the hardest hit. The two states had 9 metropolitan areas that ranked in the top ten areas of the country in terms of foreclosures.

I know that what you probably wanted to hear most is that the economy's slowdown is at an end so that some of your beaten-down stocks could enjoy a nice recovery. When the stock markets started declining towards the end of last year, SmartMoney tells us that analysts began to place bets on when we might see stocks rebound. Back then, many fund managers had expected a rally in the second half of 2008.

The Federal Reserve's decision to slash interest rates several times certainly gave a temporary boost to stocks -- not enough for a long-term rally, though. Daily concerns such as the deep housing slump and the rising inflation today give the impression that a second-half comeback is but a dream; it that would be quite hard to accomplish.

While analysts on Wall Street mostly believe a long-term rally is not too realistic now, they believe a moderate boost, stemming from the Fed's rate cuts and the $117 billion in tax rebates going into banks' accounts, is likely. On the other hand, looking at corporate profits, Citigroup analysts believe that predictions related to stocks' earnings figures are too high when taking the challenging market conditions into account.

The dollar rallied to a six-week high Wednesday after U.S. productivity increased at a larger-than-expected rate and sentiment surfaced that Europe's economy may have slowed considerably.

The dollar rose about 2 cents versus the euro -- a large move in the currency market -- to $1.5370 on Wednesday afternoon. The dollar also gained against the world's other major currencies, rising about 2 cents to $1.9530 versus the British poundת about 0.5 cents to $1.0555 versus the Swiss franc and about one-half yen to 104.85 yen versus Japan's yen.

U.S. productivity gives dollar a lift

Earlier in the day, the U.S. Labor Department announced that U.S. worker productivity increased at a 2.2% annual pace in Q1 2008, well above the 1.7% Bloomberg News survey consensus estimate.

Independent currency trader Andrew Resnick told BloggingStocks Wednesday the Q1 2008 productivity data, combined with a sense that the European Central Bank is behind-the-curve concerning interest rate cuts to deal with slowing economic growth, put traders in dollar-buy mode.

It has been a tough year for investors. We have been dealing with recession fears, housing market worries, high gasoline prices and a very weak U.S dollar. As much as we would love to say that the worst is behind us, we still could be in for some more rocky times ahead. So its best to try to figure out which stocks would be best to avoid for the time being.

Richard Gibbons wrote up a nice piece over on The Motley Fool that looks at some of the stocks that we would be wise to stay away from at this time. Regardless good or bad times, he is convinced there are always ways to make money, but in order to find the winners, it is also necessary to pull out the losers.

So how can we separate out the winners from the losers?

Gibbons seems to have a simple answer for this. He believes there is really no use in wasting our time trying to separate the winners from the losers as there are so many great cheap stocks that could offer us a chance to make money. Gibbons' advice is to not choose ugly and risky companies that could put our hard earned money at risk. To makes this clear, he uses a baseball analogy, expressing his options for the curve balls instead of the fastballs.

AP reports that Countrywide Financial Corp (NYSE: CFC) lost $893 million in the first quarter. That $1.60 a share loss was not exactly what analysts had forecast -- they were looking for a profit of two cents a share.

Meanwhile the LA Times reports that Countrywide CEO Angelo Mozilo took in $10.8 million and cashed out $121.5 million in stock gains as his company got hammered by losses on sub-prime loans in 2007. Mozilo also enjoyed perks worth $176,513, including $44,454 in rides on the company's jet; $23,755 in automobile use; $8,581 in country club dues; and $31,238 in company-paid tax and investment advice. Mozilo faces an informal U.S. inquiry into his stock sales.

And Countrywide's financial condition is deteriorating fast. It set aside a $1.5 billion reserve to cover loan up 62% from $925 million in the fourth quarter of 2007. Moreover charge-offs totaled $606 million during the first quarter. Fortunately, Countrywide has an exit strategy. In January, Countrywide agreed to sell itself to Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) for about $4 billion in stock. The question is whether Bank of America will pull out of the deal now that it sees the rising costs it will incur if it moves forward. Since Countrywide trades 15% below that takeout price, the market has its doubts.

Investors don't seem happy with today's announcement -- the stock was down 5% in premarket trading.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.

Today was a mixed day, which is evident in the tape. Today we had one of the top food deals announced, yet Warren Buffett came out and said we were in a recession. There were also concerns that the housing market will continue to slide along with general credit conditions, and that black stuff in the barrels was up $0.25 at $118.77 on last look.. Here were the unofficial closing levels:

• DJIA 12,872.97 (-18.89; -0.15%)
  
• S&P500 1,386.35 (-1.49; -0.11%)
  
• NASDAQ 2,424.40 (+1.47; +0.06%)
  
• 10-YR TBond 3.835% (-0.03%)
• 52-WEEK LOWS
• Top 10 Analyst Calls

Bebe Stores, Inc. (NASDAQ: BEBE) fell after a downgrade by Roth Capital Partners from a Buy to a Hold rating, citing disappointing sales and conservative guidance. The company reports earnings Thursday. Shares fell by more than 10% to $9.86 on the news.

AP reports that home sales dropped to levels not seen since the George H. W. Bush housing recession in 1991. And home prices are plummeting faster than they have since 1970.

Here are the details: new homes dropped by 8.5% in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 526,000 units, the slowest sales pace since October 1991. And the median price of a home sold in March dropped by 13.3% compared to March 2007, the biggest annual price decline since a 14.6% plunge in July 1970.

What the current Bush housing collapse and the earlier one share is the after math of too much capital flowing in to the housing market. Under Bush the elder, the capital flowed in due to the deregulation of the Savings & Loan industry -- resulting in a $250 billion bailout. Under Bush II, the problem was the $1.3 trillion subprime mortgage market which made capital available to people who couldn't afford to pay the mortgage -- after all, 47% of those loans required no documentation of borrower's income.

It looks like European banks have been hit much harder by the subprime crisis than U.S. banks. Last week, UBS (NYSE: UBS) wrote off about $19 billion, and today we have news that Royal Bank of Scotland (NYSE: RBS) suffered an $11.7 billion loss. We haven't seen numbers like that in the U.S. and this may be a story that needs to get more play. The European banking system is in far worse shape than the banks on our side of the Atlantic, and the impact that will have on global growth should not be underestimated.

Keep in mind that nothing like the FDIC or SIPC exists in Europe, so a major bank failure could be catastrophic for consumers. Banks have started tightening credit, and the once red-hot real estate sector has cooled, especially in places like Poland. I have friends who are in the real estate business in Eastern Europe and they say things have really slowed down.

The Dow was down as much as 150 points today as oil rose, the dollar fell and corporate earnings were mixed at best. As of 1:15, the Dow is at 12,684, down 140.

Bad news for the equities markets seems to be popping up just about everywhere you look. Not even good earnings from McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) could cut through the gathering economic gloom, and Mickey D's is down on lower same store sales despite the good earnings news.

Oil flirted with a record $120 a barrel, while gold was up $6 to $924. Banks are still looking deeply troubled as the housing market bubble keeps deflating. And the dollar fell through the $160 mark against the euro for the first time ever.

It may be that the reality of a recession is starting to sink in among traders. Of course, there are plenty of bears out there who are saying 'I told you so'. Rising oil prices and the falling dollar are two sides of the same coin: a declining American economy. While traders have not given in completely, they are nervous. "We're in a day-to-day assessment of how good earnings season is, and right now there's more bad news than good news -- the parade has been less positive than we've anticipated." So said Art Hogan, chief market analyst at Jefferies & Co. The implication is that we haven't seen anything yet. A few more weak earnings reports, and there's no telling how far this market could drop.

Economic forecasters and analysts are beginning to give in to recession language, with 51% of respondents to a poll conducted by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) indicating they believe that a stalled economy is where we may be headed. An Associated Press report indicates that 70% of all survey respondents feel the economy shall grow 3% or less in the first half of this year. A whopping 30% of respondents indicated they feel the economy shall actually contract.

Associated Press stated, "The majority of forecasters polled -- 51 percent -- thought the economic growth during the first half of this year would clock in between zero and 1 percent, which would still mark a feeble showing. Sixteen percent pegged growth in the first half at between 1 and 2 percent, while only three percent put it at between 2 and 3 percent."

The question is whether or not consumers and their discretionary incomes shall tip the economic balance into classically defined recession. While inflation has a greater portion of personal incomes being utilized for the necessities of life, these days it's generally the optional "extras" that stimulate economic growth numbers. Recreational electronics, home entertainment devices, and items of fad and fashion make up the bulk of growth industries today. To what extent will they bear up and in what measure will they support domestic economy?

Your guess is as good as mine...

Gary Sattler is a freelance blogger and former sole proprietor of a thriving retail establishment.

Bloomberg News reports that Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) missed earnings expectations by 44%. Specifically, its first-quarter net income declined to $1.21 billion, or 23 cents a share, from $5.26 billion, or $1.16 a share in 2007. The 21 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expected the bank to make 41 cents a share. The bank experienced a huge rate of late credit card payments in its $81 billion credit-card portfolio -- 5.8% compared with an industry average of 4.1%.

Bank of America's problem is its exposure to the housing market. Assuming 2% of its home-equity loans are uncollectible this year, the cost may be $2.3 billion according to a Fitch Ratings analyst. If the bad loans reach 5%, the damage could total $5.9 billion. Meanwhile, Bank of America is still on track to buy Countrywide Financial Corp (NYSE: CFC) which had $34 billion in home-equity loans at the end of 2007.

Both Bank of America and Countrywide have home-equity loans concentrated in the regions with the most foreclosure filings. California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida are the four states where housing prices are sliding faster than the national average -- ranking among the top 10 states with the most foreclosure filings in March.

Charles Peabody, a famous banking analyst, has been down on the prospects of financial companies for a number of quarters. He now sees some of the stocks in the sector as good buys.

Peapody's change of heart may be coming at the wrong time. A number of observers believe that it is healthy that firms like Citigroup (NYSE:C) are taking huge write-offs. But, if the housing and credit markets keep falling, losses could still balloon.

According to Reuters, Peabody, a widely-followed expert says "Bank shares could rise 35 to 45 percent on average from their first-quarter lows, amid signs the housing market might be bottoming out."

Peabody's thinking is based on a premise that is probably flawed. He sees the recession as making a bottom now. Any near-term recovery should indeed aid bank stocks.

With energy and commodity prices rising, consumers in trouble with debt, unemployment moving higher, and a weak dollar, it is hard to see how Peabody draws his conclustions.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.