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Labor Market Continues to Show Signs of Improvement

laborersAccording to the ADP Employer Services Report, the private sector added 201,000 new jobs in March, basically in-line with 203,000 new jobs that analysts had been expecting to see.

February's figures were revised downwards to 208,000 from a previously estimated 216,000 new jobs.

March's employment gains bring the four-month average of new jobs to 211,000, more than enough to keep the labor track on path. Analysts estimate that the economy needs to add 125,000 new jobs each month in order to keep up with population growth, so any jobs over that figure result in a lower unemployment figures.

Continue reading Labor Market Continues to Show Signs of Improvement

Bleak Prospects for Further Economic Growth

In projecting U.S. GDP growth at about a 2% rate for the remainder of this year and in 2011, I have noted that the two propellants of growth so far in this economic recovery -- the inventory revival and fiscal stimuli -- are largely exhausted.

But are there other sectors of the economy that might serve as the backbone of any meaningful economic recovery? I don't see any, especially with U.S. consumers continuing their saving spree, repaying debts and remaining hesitant to spend like they did during the boom times of earlier years.

Continue reading Bleak Prospects for Further Economic Growth

More People Are Quitting Their Jobs

The Bureau of Labor Statistics has an indicator that tracks the number of people who simply quit their jobs. CNBC.com reported that the indicator, which they dubbed "Take This Job and Shove It," climbed in October with 2 million people quitting their jobs, up from 1.7 million in the same month a year ago. The last time this pattern occurred was in 2003 when the economy started a long upward trend.

The "Shove It" indicator tends to turn up when people are confident enough that they will find another job if they quit their present one.

Continue reading More People Are Quitting Their Jobs

Oil Falls On Bearish Inventory Report and Bernanke Testimony

falling oil pricesOil prices headed lower on Wednesday after the Department of Energy announced a surprise increase in inventories last week.

Analysts had been expecting to see oil reserves decline last week by 1.4 million barrels, but the weekly inventory report showed that inventories actually increased during the week by 400,00 barrels.

Continue reading Oil Falls On Bearish Inventory Report and Bernanke Testimony

Consumers Drive GDP Expansion

The Commerce Department announced Friday morning that the economy grew at a 3.2% rate during the first quarter of 2010, below expectations that called for the GDP to increase 3.4%. Consumer spending increased at the fastest pace in the past three years, serving as the impetus for the GDP growth.

Consumer spending increased at a 3.6% annual rate, with business investments in equipment and software increasing at a pace of 13.4%. In the past year, the GDP has increased 2.5% driven by a 5.6% increase in the fourth quarter.

Continue reading Consumers Drive GDP Expansion

Ray of Light: U.S. Treasury Borrowing May Be Peaking

At first glance, Wednesday's good news data point looks anything but: the U.S. Treasury may sell $128 billion in notes next week -- a record, Bloomberg News reported. The large debt amount stems in part from record spending for both the fiscal stimulus and the bank bailout.

And the good news in the above? Institutional investors and analysts sense that a modest reduction in the Treasury Department's borrowing needs is approaching, due to the strengthening U.S. economy, Bloomberg News reported. A Bloomberg survey of bond/debt dealers forecasts that the Treasury will sell $2.4 trillion in debt in 2010, compared to $2.11 trillion in 2009.

Continue reading Ray of Light: U.S. Treasury Borrowing May Be Peaking

A Sight Investors Would Love: Above-Trend Job Growth

That the job creation task ahead for policy makers and executives alike is significant would be an understatement. The task is, arguably, as great as any economic endeavor since the restructuring of the U.S. economy for armaments production during the mobilization for World War II.

Here are the basics: the U.S. Labor Department puts the number of unemployed persons at 15 million as of the end of March, roughly 8.4 million of which stems from the 2007-2009 recession.

Continue reading A Sight Investors Would Love: Above-Trend Job Growth

Survey: Economic Recovery to Drag Through 2011

Associated Press logoAccording to an Associated Press survey of leading economists, jobs and home values will stay unstable into 2011. The survey indicates that the recovery is going to continue trudging along through the year, which should prompt the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates near zero. Three-fourths of the economists surveyed believe that the interest rates will stay low until the final quarter of 2010.

Other highlights from the survey (if you can call them highlights) include the belief that the unemployment rate will stay "stubbornly high" during the next two years. The group believes that the unemployment rate will drop to 9.3% by the end of this year and will drop to 8.4% at the end of 2011.

Continue reading Survey: Economic Recovery to Drag Through 2011

Fourth Quarter Earnings Preview for Tiffany & Co.

Luxury jewelry store chain Tiffany & Co. (TIF) is trading lower today as Wall Street awaits its fourth quarter earnings report on Monday, but by most accounts analysts are expecting to see strong earnings from the company.

Going into Monday's earnings report, analysts are forecasting the company to report $1.13 a share. For the same period last year Tiffany had earnings of $0.85 per share, so if it is able to match analyst estimates it would mark a very respectable 32% jump year over year.

Continue reading Fourth Quarter Earnings Preview for Tiffany & Co.

2009 Unemployment Ends with Double Digits, Consequences Still to Come

More than 20 million people received unemployment benefits last year, a new record. While they didn't all do it at the same time, the activity was enough to run the unemployment rate up to 10%, leaving everyone with the belief hope that 2010 just has to be better.

The severity that has characterized the job market since the woes of American International Group (AIG) and Lehman Brothers made headlines in September 2008 eased up a bit as 2009 marched toward its conclusion. The layoffs slowed down a bit, but a dearth of hiring means that we aren't seeing a pickup for the 5.8 million who've been out of work for more than six months ... let alone everyone else.

Continue reading 2009 Unemployment Ends with Double Digits, Consequences Still to Come

U-6 unemployment number suggests recovery has not started

While this article is a few days old, I still found its message rather interesting. Jeff Cox's article takes a look at the U-6 number of unemployment. This number is the "broadest" measure of unemployment, and it shows that roughly 17.5% of Americans are either without a job or underemployed. This is the highest reading since the U-6 number became an official labor statistic in 1994. The U-3 rate (which is what most investors follow) came in at 10.2% in October, which was the highest reading since June 1983.

Continue reading U-6 unemployment number suggests recovery has not started

Applied Materials (AMAT) tops analyst estimates

Applied Materials Q4 EarningsSemiconductor maker Applied Materials (AMAT) reported its fiscal fourth quarter numbers this afternoon following the market close, and the company easily outpaced analyst estimates.

Going into this afternoon's earnings report, analysts had been expecting to see the company show earnings of 3 cents per share, but the company surprised to the upside by posting actual Q4 earnings of 13 cents.

Continue reading Applied Materials (AMAT) tops analyst estimates

Caterpillar announces plans to rehire 550 workers

cat workersThere is no question that the recession took its tool on Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT). The company saw its stock plummet from mid 2008 through March of this year. Along the way the company was forced to layoff employees to help lower costs, but it announced today that it would be rehiring 550 of its laid off workers.

Chief Executive Officer Jim Owens announced the news and stated that the company was pleased that "
signs of recovery in the global economy" is allowing it to bring back some employees.

Continue reading Caterpillar announces plans to rehire 550 workers

Consumer sentiment drops: savings and debt repayment are culprits

The recession is only over if you ask the right people. While some sectors are starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel, consumers remain concerned. It may be tempting to listen to the experts over the average Joe, but the former don't control 70% of the U.S. economy. So, as long as people are worried abou unemployment (which continues to rise), the levels of debt they carry and whether they're at risk of foreclosure, the recession will live on in the hearts of those who write checks and swipe credit cards.

Continue reading Consumer sentiment drops: savings and debt repayment are culprits

International Monetary Fund sees sluggish recovery

On Thursday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said the global economy will grow next year, but cautioned the recovery will be sluggish. The IMF added that the recovery could even "stall out" if policymakers assume the slump is over. The IMF's recent outlook, however, is better than July's outlook, as the IMF predicts better growth in 2010 thanks to "strong public policies ... that have supported demand and all but eliminated fears of a global depression."

As for the recovery, the IMF believes that it will be subdued and "well below" the growth seen before the economic crisis. The group added that there is a "significant risk" of a reversal, noting that central banks in advanced economies need to wait until the recovery is on firm footing.

Continue reading International Monetary Fund sees sluggish recovery

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Last updated: February 11, 2012: 08:56 AM

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