The recession is only over if you ask the right people. While some sectors are starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel, consumers remain concerned. It may be tempting to listen to the experts over the average Joe, but the former don't control 70% of the U.S. economy. So, as long as people are worried abou unemployment (which continues to rise), the levels of debt they carry and whether they're at risk of foreclosure, the recession will live on in the hearts of those who write checks and swipe credit cards.

The rate at which jobs were cut slowed in August, but the gap to be filled will be with us for a while. With 14.9 million people looking for jobs according to Moody's Economy.com, the unemployment rate won't hit 5% -- considered "normal" -- until 2014. To put this in perspective, we still have one presidential election and two mid-term contests between now and a full employment recovery.

Data published by the Department of Labor Friday puts the unemployment rate at 9.7%. In December 2007, it was only 4.7%. And, as BloggingStocks reported on Friday, it could pass 10% by the end of 2009. For teenagers, the unemployment rate has reached 26%. The number of job-seekers who have given up completely is above 750,000 -- the highest level since the Department of Labor started keeping score in 1994.

The unemployment rate fell from 9.4% to 9.5% last month, with the number of positions cut falling almost by half -- from 442,000 in June to 247,000 in July. This was the first dip in the unemployment rate in 15 months.

So, it's starting to look like the economy is turning the corner ... or at least trying. But, when you look at what a recovery will have to entail, only one word comes to mind: painful.

An estimated 7 million workers have been booted from their desks during this recession. In total, 15 million people are without jobs right now. Of this number, 4.4 million (29%) have been unemployed for more than six months, a jump from 2.6 million in February. An estimated 540,000 will run out of unemployment benefits by the end of September, with 1.5 million reaching that point by the end of the year.

Do you like surveys? If the answer is yes, here's one on the state of the US economy conducted by the National Association for Business Economics.

The survey gives an overall summary -- that the economy is near a low point, Yet a small majority, 102 respondents, said that their firms had not yet hit bottom. In the words of Sara Johnson of IHS Global Insight: "The US recession is abating, but few signs of immediate recovery."

Its not at the level of a proclamation but the big guns at the Federal Reserve and economic advisors are pretty sure the worst is over. So says Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Donald Kahn and New York Fed chief William Dudly. Even the tough guy, Paul Volker, is saying the economy's rate of decline is set to slow down.

The Fed has slashed interest rated from a peak of 5.25% to a range of zero to .25% in December. Fed officials say that there is a lag time between interest rate cuts and the effects of these cuts on the overall economy.

Numbers are pointing the fact that the economy lost more jobs last year, more than any year in decades. According to Bloomberg, "Payrolls fell 500,000 in December, bringing last year's decline to 2.4 million, the most since 1945."

So, last year was a bad one. The stock market has opened as if this one will be better. Don't bet on it.

Many large industries may only be at the beginning of their layoff cycles. That is certainly true of retail. Some estimates are that another 70,000 stores will close in the U.S. this year. The auto industry will cut more jobs either to please Congress or due to outright bankruptcies. Small business has almost no access to capital, so that part of the economy is likely to eat through jobs as well.

Unemployment almost certainly went above 7% in December. Retail layoffs could push that toward 8% all by themselves. The idea that the entire economy could drop another three million jobs this year is entirely possible.

Whatever the stock market is signaling about a recovery is premature. Too many industries are in too much trouble to keep employment anywhere close to where it is today.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Except for the chosen ones -- CEOs and the like who have outrageous salary and benefit packages -- almost nobody has been able to escape the financial pain in the world today.

'My pal Warren,' Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A and BRK.B), who only draws a $100,000 salary, has watched his net worth diminished by billions of dollars as his stock has unraveled like everything else. I last read Buffett had a 31% stake in Berkshire so he understands his shareholders angst, even if he does not feel their pain. The stock has dropped from a 52-week high of $151,650 to yesterday's close of $77,500 for a loss of 49%.

Once again in quarterly SEC filings Berkshire's holdings were released and I could not help but wonder if this great holding company had not become one more giant index fund. There are a lot of quality names in the mix including:

• Burlington Northern Santa Fe (NYSE: BNI)
• Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO)
• ConocoPhillips (NYSE; COP)
• Johnson and Johnson (NYSE: JNJ)
• Kraft Foods'A' (: NYSE: KFT)
• Procter and Gamble (NYSE: PG)
• U.S. Bancorp (: NYSE: USB)
• Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC)

The above referenced stocks are all down with the market and there are still more that might be considered fallen angels or turn-around plays within Berkshire's holdings that include:

• American Express (NYSE: AXP)
• General Electric (NYSE: GE)
• Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS)
• Home Depot (NYSE: HD)
• Lowe's Cos (NYSE: LOW)

In addition to these publicly traded stocks Berkshire holdings include privately held Geico Insurance, See's Candies, Dairy Queen, Florsheim Shoes, and a multitude of others. Since so many stocks have been accumulated over the years I started to view BRK as a stock index and with that in mind did some comparisons between the Standard & Poors 500 and BRK.

The following is a three-year chart that illustrates that buying BRK instead of the index anytime in the last three years would have been beneficial by a 30% margin.