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Winnebago rises on Q4 report

Winnebago (NYSE: WGO) is up well over 8% at the time of this writing during afternoon trading. Yep, it's one of those stories: post a revenue decline and a loss and get rewarded. For the fourth quarter, sales dropped 30%, and the loss per share on an adjusted basis came in at 19 cents.

The full-year picture was also rather dire. Sales plummeted over 60%, and the company lost an adjusted $1.28 per share. Just awful. How in the world can the market love these numbers?

Continue reading Winnebago rises on Q4 report

Winnebago doesn't win the expectations game in Q3

Winnebago Industries (NYSE: WGO) traveled to Wall Street on Thursday to deliver its Q3 earnings numbers. The market thought that the results were worthy of a 10% increase in the stock price. Winnebago closed yesterday at $7.15 per share. The 52-week low on the stock is $3.14. Volume was active during the trading session. So, is Winnebago a buy?

Let's check out some of the stats. According to the press release (pdf file), net sales saw a very steep decline of more than 60%. Winnebago lost 29 cents per share in this year's third quarter versus a profit of 10 cents per share in last year's similar period. However, analysts expected a loss of 27 cents per share. Since Winnebago didn't beat the analyst community, you have to wonder why the market was so excited and in a frenzy to bid shares higher.

Continue reading Winnebago doesn't win the expectations game in Q3

Winnebago posts counter-intuitive profits

Oddly enough, the higher oil prices rise, the more people want to buy a top of the line motor home. That seems to be the conclusion investors can draw from Winnebago Industries, Inc. (NYSE: WGO) recent 4Q and FY 2007 earnings report. Winnebago has introduced a Class C value-priced line of motor homes, but that's not where the sales and profits are. Sales of the top of the line Class A motor homes increased by volume, leading to a 16% increase in revenue in 4Q 2007 and a whopping 59% increase in net income, to just under $15 million, for the quarter. The Class A motor homes have a much higher profit margin, and Class A deliveries are up 48%. Seems like when people are ready to buy a rolling second home, they do not want to do so on a budget.

Despite the good news for the quarter, investors should not start revving their engines just yet. Motor home sales are still soft across the board, and the industry is entering its slowest part of the sales year. Dealers will not boost inventories due to soft demand. Gas prices continue to rise while consumer confidence levels continue to decline.

Winnebago is doing all it can to make the stock attractive to investors. The company repurchased 1.5 million shares of stock during the quarter, at a cost of $44 million. The company will pay a regular quarterly dividend of $0.12 per share. These are, however, actions with a short term impact and do not replace a company's need to increase its profits through organic growth, not real likely for Winnebago under current circumstances.

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Fleetwood Enterprises, Inc.: High gas prices mean slow RV sales

There was a time in 2002 and 2003, when I vocally advocated on TV business shows (and was right) that the RV industry might see a big upswing due to all the Baby Boomers retiring. What better way was there to spend one's new-found free time than to travel around the country in relative luxury, stopping wherever you please, whenever you please? But I was ahead of the curve then, and for the past year, I've been bearish on this once ripe for upside sector. The reason why? High gas prices and less money in retirees' pockets.

On May 4, 2006, I blogged that "The Road Trip was Over" for Thor Industries,Inc. (NYSE: THO), an RV manufacturer. I got many adamant responses telling me that I had it all wrong. Many of you said that nothing would tear you from your RV travel, so I started thinking maybe these Boomers were more dedicated to their RVs than I thought, and willing to pay for them, no matter the price. But gas prices continue to go up without any sign of improvement, and sales performance of RV makers continue to fall. Even the Boomers with expendable income are finding it just doesn't pay to travel with a vehicle that typically only gets between 7 and 12 miles-per-gallon. With gas prices solidly in the $3-plus a gallon price range, we're looking at one expensive cross-country road trip! You might as well fly.

Which is why I'm bearish on Fleetwood Enterprises, Inc. (NYSE: FLE), a leading producer of recreational vehicles and manufactured homes. FLE recently reported a fourth quarter sales decrease of 16% over last year, and within that, the RV group took a particular hit, declining by 12% for the quarter. Inventories seem to be piling up, as they didn't anticipate sales falling so much. I simply don't see how this can turn around any time soon.

Type of stock: A leading producer of mobile homes and RVs that has been hit by high gas prices.

Price Target: At its current price of $8.86, I don't think this is a smart buy. We're going to see Fleetwood sink more as gas prices rise. Ultimately, there could be consolidation which could provide a lift to the price, but it isn't worthwhile to chase the stock today in anticipation of an event which may be a few months or years off.

Hilary Kramer is a financial editor and money coach for AOL and an authority on investing. Visit her at www.hilarykramer.com.

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Last updated: February 12, 2012: 12:29 PM

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