"I have four Hurricane Season stock picks -- two bullish, two bearish -- to play this summer's potentially wild weather," says Sean Broderick in his Uncommon Wisdom advisory.

"Last year's stormy weather spawned 16 named storms, which was higher than the long-term average of about 10 tropical storms and six hurricanes per year in a typical Atlantic hurricane season.

"The major hurricane forecasters have now made their predictions, and it's for a 'moderate' hurricane season. That's good news for America's oil and gas industry.

A new U.S. administration's promise to create a more self-reliant, energy-independent nation and the impact of efforts to first limit, then eliminate global warming from fossil fuels opens the door to alternative energy source development.

But, as Saudi Arabia reminds us, barring a breakthrough technology, fossil fuels will remain a major energy source for at least the next thirty to fifty years. In other words, oil is down now, but it's not out and it isn't going away anytime soon, which is why investors who can tolerate moderate risk should consider Tesoro (NYSE: TSO).

As prices at the gas pump begin their later-if-not-sooner return to the stratosphere, you can sit there and lament, or you can own Hess (NYSE: HES).

Hess is an integrated oil and gas company with proved reserves totaling 1.4 billion barrels of oil equivalent. Hess also sells gasoline through about 1,400 gas stations, primarily in the eastern U.S.

The world is awash in oil. For now. Gasoline prices are at moderate levels. For now. And analysts say slack demand will keep a lid on gasoline prices this summer. Well, as the singer Meatloaf would say, two out of three ain't bad.

Given the continuing U.S. recession (which has taken many drivers off the road), all signs point to moderate gasoline prices for the duration of the summer, unless the unexpected occurs, such as a refinery outage or a damaging hurricane season. At that point gasoline prices could spike and begin to trend higher -- as they so often do in the summer -- exasperating many, unless you've purchased shares in Sunoco (NYSE: SUN).

Readers of the this space know that two preferred sectors are integrated oil and refining sectors. Would that the United States could wean itself from oil relatively quickly and transition to a cheap, environmentally-friendly, alternative energy source (natural gas, electric, fuel cell) for auto transportation. Unfortunately, as researchers remind us, that goal is at least a decade away, which means companies like Marathon Oil (NYSE: MRO) will remain in the catbird seat.

Marathon Oil recently concluded that, rather than spin-off units, it is in the best interests of its shareholders to remain an integrated business. Net result? Earnings stability for investors, thank you.

In this market, with its tumult and Dow-stocks-turned-into-dollar-menu-stocks, there are stock plays you jump at, and then there are plays that must wait for another day.

Put Exxon-Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) in the latter category. Likely U.S. fuel demand declines (doesn't that sound funny?) for at least much of 2009, and probably into 2010, will weigh on refining/gasoline revenue.

Economist Peter Dawson did not fill up his car's gas tank with gas Saturday, and for a good reason.

"The price of gasoline is trending lower, so the longer you wait the less you'll pay," Dawson said.

In fact, in addition to cutting back his driving, Dawson is performing another modest act of conservation, which, if applied across the states, should help lower prices even more over time: he's not filling up his tank. If he uses 10 gallons in a week, he's replacing the 10, not filling the tank completely.

The above will help cancel-out the effect of a practice that's all-to-familiar to drivers: as soon as oil prices rise, gasoline stations immediately increase their prices. During the current oil shock, gas stations would some times raise prices 20 or 30 cents overnight, occasionally, more, he said.

The above practice is justified from a cash-flow standpoint, Dawson said, because gas stations are trying to prepare for the higher cost of the next gasoline delivery from gasoline wholesalers: a rise in oil prices means their next delivery is going to cost more, and to pay for it, gas stations "immediately raise their prices, so their cash flow isn't hurt."

U.S. gasoline consumption has declined for more than two months on a year-over-year basis, U.S. Energy Information Administration data indicates,

From a consumer standpoint, that's not only a good thing, it may be the only thing keeping already sky-high, $4 per gallon gasoline prices from moving even higher, says energy trader Jim Dietz.

"Lower demand is preventing gasoline sellers from raising prices even more. That's bad news for them, but it is helping consumers a little by keeping prices lower than what they would be, given the jump in oil prices," Dietz said.

Oil, which traded at $142.80 per barrel, up $1.83 on Wednesday at mid-day, is up about 100% in the past year. Meanwhile, the average price for a gallon of unleaded gasoline in the U.S. is about $4.09 per gallon, up about 45% during the same period, according to the EIA.

"Historically, a gallon of gasoline cost two times to three times as much as a gallon of crude oil. Now that price ratio is about 1.3-to-1," Dietz said. "If the old ratio applied, gasoline would easily be 40-60 cents higher, probably more." Dietz added that he is presently flat, or has no energy trading positions open ahead of the 4th of July weekend.