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Posts with tag regional banks

The most negative economist in the world

Nouriel Roubini, a professor at New York University, has recently been profiled in both Barron's and The New York Times. There may be nothing special about his training or methods, but what is fairly unique is his opinion that we are on the brink of a modern version of the Great Depression.

It is hard to say why the media wants to give his analysis voice, but he has become the object of almost endless fascination.

The foundation of his view of the economy is that the current housing disaster will get much, much worse and that banks will end up writing off almost $1.5 trillion in mortgage-related paper. That is about three times what they have taken as charges so far. The New York Times quotes Roubini as saying, "A good third of the regional banks won't make it."

While a number of experts believe that the recession could last a year, Roubini would he called an extremist by most measures. He foresees a downturn lasting 18 months.

The media does not like Roubini because he may be right. They like him because predictions of great economic collapse and mayhem sell papers. That is too bad. The public deserves a more balanced view.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 24/7 Wall St.

More bank failures down the road (NCC) (KEY) (FITB)

The level of bad loans at US banks is getting worse and not better. According to the FT, "Sheila Bair, chairwoman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, said it was likely loan-loss provisions and bank failures would rise in coming quarters as the fallout from market turmoil hits the real economy."

Three banks have failed this year and the FDIC says the number of "problem" banks sits at 90.

All of this may be tough on regulators who may have to bail banks out, but it could be tougher on shareholders who have stock in mid-sized and regional banks. NCC (NYSE:NCC) has already had to raise $7 billion. Its shares are down to $5.68 from a 52-week high of $35.83. Other banks in the same category, such as Fifth Third (NASDAQ:FITB) and KeyCorp (NYSE:KEY), have lost about half their price compared to 52-week highs.

The news from the FDIC shows that investing in financial firms remains tricky and dangerous. It is not for the faint of heart.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Insider buying in regional banks

"When it comes to sentiment indicators, one of my favorites is insider buying," says Mike Burnick, editor of Global Market Investor.

The advisor is intrigued by insider buying in the financial sector -- particularly among regional banking stocks. He explains, "The insiders are buying with both hands. Now's the time to go long." Here, he looks at the KBW Regional Bank Index ETF (ASE: KRE).

"U.S. corporate insiders are now buying more of their own shares than they're selling for the first time since 1995. Nearly 2,000 insiders at NYSE listed companies are snapping up shares - while total buys beat out sells by 1.44 times.

"There are many reasons to sell, but there's really only one reason to open your wallet and buy stock... you think it's dirt-cheap and likely headed much higher in price.

"This insider buying is taking place all across corporate America, but it's especially significant in the beaten-down banking sector. Stock buying by insiders at banks, consumer lenders and insurers in the S&P 500 index jumped recently to the highest level in 12 years.

Continue reading Insider buying in regional banks

Analysts warming up to financial ETFs

MarketWatch has an interesting article today about homebuilder and financial ETFs. The article, titled "Analysts say financial, builder ETFs signaling buy," interviews a couple of leading analysts who feel that both sectors have bottomed out and are "screaming buys."

Morningstar analyst Sonya Morris said that the Financial Select Sector SPDR (AMEX: XLF) is trading "at least 25% below what Morningstar thinks they are worth."

MarketWatch said in the same article, "Most of the analysts agree that valuations are attractive right now in the financial sector. They said that once the sector gets past the problems with the subprime crisis, probably by the end of this year, the shares could move fast."

I think these analysts are probably right, but that we're probably not through going down in the short term.

Zack Miller is the Managing Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com and a former equity analyst for a leading multinational hedge fund.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+12.7811,430.21
NASDAQ-8.702,380.38
S&P 500+3.181,277.72

Last updated: August 21, 2008: 09:25 PM

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