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Insurers Ready for Above-Average Hurricane Season

All we can do is wait for Alex.

Hurricane season start June 1, 2010
, with Alex chosen as the first name, and it's expected to be above average. The Colorado State University forecast released on Wednesday predicts 15 named storms in the Atlantic basin, due partly to record warm water. Eight of them are expected to reach hurricane status, with sustained winds of 74 mph, and four are forecasted to become Category 3, 4 or 5 storms, with sustained winds of 111 mph. Typically, there are only 10 named storms, with six becoming hurricanes (two of them major), based on data going back to 1950.

William Gray, a member of the CSU Tropical Meteorology Project, told USA Today, "The probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline is 69%, compared with the last-century average of 52%."

Continue reading Insurers Ready for Above-Average Hurricane Season

Reinsurance Industry Approaches Record Levels

When I started my brief stint in the reinsurance business in late 2007, the words "excess capital" were on everyone's lips. Reinsurers had record capital on hand and were pushing dividends and share buybacks because they couldn't find ways to make it productive. Two years later, we're getting close to those record levels, according to a new report from Aon Benfield (AON), despite everything that's happened in between – the financial crisis, Hurricanes Gustav and Ike and the earthquake in Chile, for example.

If you look at the financials, it's almost like nothing has changed, and let's hope the lessons learned in between aren't obscured by the full pockets that reinsurers can now boast.

Continue reading Reinsurance Industry Approaches Record Levels

State Farm Closes First Cat Bond of Q2

The first catastrophe bond of the quarter closed on opening day ... and it was a big one. State Farm's Merna Re II transaction was good for $350 million in risk capital, upsized from the earlier reported amount of $250 million. Though large, it doesn't compare to the previous Merna Re catastrophe bond, which set a record at $1.2 billion that remains to be beat.

Merna Re II was oversubscribed, but State Farm only wanted to place $350 million, Thomson Reuters reports (registration required). According to one investor who knew about the transaction, "The deal was oversubscribed at +365 basis points and after being upsized to $350 million." The investor added, "The initial price talk was 365 - 405 bp, but the deal got priced at 365 bp. However, Merna was a simple transaction and State Farm only wanted to place 350 million."

Continue reading State Farm Closes First Cat Bond of Q2

Aon Reports Flat Reinsurance Pricing, No Surprises

Like Willis Re (WSH) and Marsh & McLennan's (MMC) Guy Carpenter, reinsurance broker Aon Benfield (AOC) found risk-transfer pricing to have softened at the April 1, 2010 reinsurance renewal. It was the same story around the world: the Q1 catastrophes may do some damage to earnings, but the sector was sufficiently capitalized to absorb the shocks. In fact, Aon Benfield reported that the reinsurance industry had nearly returned to record capital levels. At the beginning 2008, the sector was in the same situation before the financial crisis and Hurricane Gustav and Ike depleted balance sheets on the same weekend in September.

Continue reading Aon Reports Flat Reinsurance Pricing, No Surprises

Q1 Catastrophes May Hit Earnings, Won't Change Market

The first quarter of 2010 will probably go down in history as the worst ever for catastrophe losses.

According to global reinsurance broker Willis Re (WSH), the insurance industry recorded $16 billion in insured losses, from the Chile earthquake and Windstorm Xynthia in Europe, but the largest losses occurred in smaller markets, where it premium volumes aren't as large. Since the third and fourth quarters tend to be the most loss-prone of the year, a quarter that is normally quiet could set the stage for outsized losses.

Continue reading Q1 Catastrophes May Hit Earnings, Won't Change Market

Reinsurance Rates Fall Around the World

The first quarter catastrophes weren't enough to push property-catastrophe reinsurance rates lower. Even though the first quarter was a busy one for catastrophe losses, particularly for global reinsurers, they weren't sufficient to change the market. As a result, the four regions renewing at April 1, 2010 -- the United States, Japan, Latin America and South Korea -- ranged from soft to controlled, according to the latest from Guy Carpenter, the reinsurance arm of Marsh & McLennan (MMC). This comes as no surprise, as indications throughout the run-up to the renewal pointed to an orderly process in which there would be enough capital to support the market's needs.

Continue reading Reinsurance Rates Fall Around the World

Catastrophe Bonds: Same but Different in 2010

This year, you can expect experienced catastrophe bond issuers in the insurance and reinsurance sectors to dominate the market, as they did in 2009. Instead of replacing maturing bonds, however, many will be turning to new transactions. Fresh moves are likely, therefore, in a sector that could double last year's issuance total and at least approach the 2007 record of $7 billion in risk capital.

Eighteen tranches of eight cat bonds are set to mature in the second quarter, according to the Thomson Reuters Insurance Linked Securities Community. On the eve of hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico, $2.77 billion in risk capital will mature, including State Farm's $1.2 billion Merna Re transaction, the largest transaction in the history of this form of risk transfer. Only part of Merna Re will be replaced by Merna II, with industry trade publication Trading Risk, which is put out by the Insurance Insider, reporting that the $250 million successor to Merna Re has been upsized to $700 million.

Continue reading Catastrophe Bonds: Same but Different in 2010

Strong 2009 Results for Insurance Sector

Look for big numbers from the property/casualty sector of the insurance industry for full-year 2009. Light catastrophe losses were a big help, leaving more cash in the coffers to benefit from the recovering financial markets following the September 2008 crisis. Reinsurance companies, in particular, will benefit from the light catastrophe activity of 2009.

Among 52 publicly traded insurance companies, rating agency Fitch reports, the incurred loss ratio fell to 65.8%, a decline of 1.8 percentage points, and the expense ratio increased to 28.5% (up 0.6 percentage points). This caused underwriting profits for the entire group to improve, as indicate by the overall combined ratio of 94.3% for 2009, down from 95.5% in 2008 (a lower combined ratio s a positive development).

Continue reading Strong 2009 Results for Insurance Sector

Reinsurers Returning Capital Despite Catastrophes

With borrowing costs at their lowest levels since 2004, reinsurers are loading up on corporate debt in part to fund stock buybacks. The latest tally, according to Bloomberg News, is $1.34 billion in additional borrowing, with Endurance Specialty Holdings (ENH), a Bermuda-based company, recently selling $85 million in bonds. Other recent transactions include Axis Capital Holdings (AXS) and PartnerRe (PRE) each issuing $500 million in bonds and RenaissanceRe (RNR) adding $250 million to the count.

Continue reading Reinsurers Returning Capital Despite Catastrophes

Lloyd's of London Turns in Record Year

Last year was a good one for Lloyd's of London. Profits more than doubled, surging to a record $5.81 billion, thanks largely to strong investment gains and a quiet catastrophe year. Investment gains last year amounted to $2.66 billion, an increase of 84.8%. But, it wasn't all just a rising tide in the financial markets. Lloyd's did pick up a gain of more than 20% in premium volume -- and currency fluctuations played a role.

Says Lord Peter Leven, Lloyd's chairman, the increase in profits "has been achieved despite the economic turbulence that characterized most of 2009, although we were certainly helped by a low level of catastrophe losses." In particular, a quite hurricane season in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico was kind to Lloyd's balance sheet.

Continue reading Lloyd's of London Turns in Record Year

Insurance Industry Relieved over 2009 Securities Class Action Tally

As with just about every impact of the financial crisis on the insurance industry, the increase in securities class action lawsuit settlements wasn't as bad as the industry expected.

According to a study by Stanford Law School and Cornerstone Research, settlements grew only 39% year over year in 2009. Insurers and reinsurers writing directors and officers insurance in the U.S. are probably relieved to see that the reality didn't reach what they feared. The number could tick higher, though, as these cases work their way through the court system.

Continue reading Insurance Industry Relieved over 2009 Securities Class Action Tally

U.S. Insurers Addicted to Corporate Bonds

In the U.S. alone, insurance companies hold more than $2.2 trillion in corporate debt, having spent 2009 buying bonds at a faster rate than it had in the past five years. As Warren Buffett of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) put it, the market was "raining gold." Net purchases of corporate bonds by the U.S. insurance industry jumped to $153 billion last year, most of it in the first quarter, when yields were highest. In 2008, outflows reached $59 billion. In 2004, inflows hit $172 billion.

According to Judy Greffin, Allstate's (ALL) chief investment officer, tells Bloomberg News, "It has paid off very nicely," as evidenced by the 20% growth in Allstate's corporate debt holdings last year, which reached $33.1 billion. She continues, "With the benefit of hindsight, I would have loved to have bought more." Likewise, Buffett indicated that he should have invested more. MetLife (MET) and Prudential Financial (PRU) also benefited from the corporate debt rally, which has helped them recover much of the capital lost from the financial crisis of September 2008.

Continue reading U.S. Insurers Addicted to Corporate Bonds

Bermuda Readies Itself for New Insurance Regulation in Europe

Bermuda is angling to pick up props from European regulators. There's plenty at stake – namely, the huge insurance and reinsurance presence on the island. If the Bermuda Monetary Authority can demonstrate its oversight chops, the industry won't need to seek greener pastures when Solvency II, a new insurance regulatory measure, takes effect. Changes to capital and supervision rules in Europe, particularly with Solvency II in the works, could affect companies like Axis (AXS), Catlin (CLNGF), Flagstone Re (FSR), RenaissanRe (RNR) and XL Insurance (XL).

So, what's on the table? Well, gross written premium hit $104 billion in Bermuda last year. If you use Lloyd's of London as a reference point, Bermuda is four times larger. Though the U.S. leads in throwing business to insurers in Bermuda, Europe isn't far behind in second. This is why Bermuda is thinking about Solvency II. Even though the directive only applies directly to European carriers, secondary effects will be evident around the world.

Continue reading Bermuda Readies Itself for New Insurance Regulation in Europe

Q1 Cats Likely to Have Reinsurance Earnings Impact

After weeks of speculation, the financial damage from the Chile earthquake and Windstorm Xynthia in Europe is starting to emerge. According to a recent report by Moody's, 16 global reinsurance companies have reported their net insured losses (before taxes) from the catastrophe event, and the damage has already reached $3.5 billion, increasing an already high tally. The firm expects these events to have a noticeable impact on first quarter results for the industry.

According to the report, the first quarter of 2010's results "will have many moving pieces, including the possibility of favorable loss reserve development." It continues, though, that "we would expect a number of reinsurers to post both operating and net losses for the quarter."

Continue reading Q1 Cats Likely to Have Reinsurance Earnings Impact

State Farm Planning Monster Cat Bond

Merna Re, the largest catastrophe bond of all time, is set to mature in June, and State Farm is already putting together its replacement, the creatively named Merna Re II. The successor, planned for issuance in April, is said to be for $400 million in risk capital, though investor demand could push it as high as $700 million. This still pales in comparison to the $1.2 billion that the original brought in the door.

If State Farm is able to stimulate demand for Merna Re II, which would protect the company from non-California earthquake risk in the U.S., it will be third cat bond to come to market in 2010, which is expected to be a strong year for this form of risk transfer. The cat bond market fell silent after the near-collapse of American International Group (AIG) in September 2008 but was still the third busiest in terms of capital issued in the history of the cat bond market. Heading into 2009, prospects for the cat bond space seemed uncertain, but a robust fourth quarter eventually resulted in a year-over-year increase, driven mostly by repeat issuers.

Continue reading State Farm Planning Monster Cat Bond

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