Analyst Upgrades

• Brinker (EAT) to buy from neutral at UBS.
• Starbucks (SBUX) to overweight from equal weight at Morgan Stanley.
• Paccar (PCAR) to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan.
• CA Technologies (CA) to outperform from perform at Oppenheimer.
• PPL Corp. (PPL) to overweight from equal weight at Barclays.
• ConocoPhillips (COP) to hold from sell at Citigroup.
• First Defiance (FDEF) to outperform from market perform at Keefe Bruyette.
• MasTec (MTZ) to outperform from neutral at Credit Suisse.
• Amdocs (DOX) to neutral from underperform at BofA/Merrill.

Analyst Upgrades

• Auriga upgraded Leap Wireless (LEAP) to buy from hold following the company's Q2 results and analyst day, citing valuation, longer-term potential for consolidation and prospects for business improvements. Despite upgrading, the firm lowered its target for shares to $16 from $19.
• Goldman upgraded Barnes & Noble (BKS) to neutral from sell following the company's announcement to explore strategic alternatives. The firm raised its price target to $15 from $12.
• RBC Capital upgraded ESCO Technologies (ESE) to sector perform from underperform following the better-than-expected Q3 report. The firm raised its price target to $30 from $28.
• MetLife (MET) was upgraded to buy from neutral at BofA/Merrill.
• Priceline.com (PCLN) was upgraded to buy from hold at Stifel Nicolaus.
• HSBC (HBC) was upgraded to outperform from underperform at CLSA.

This is not an abstraction: buildings large and small are showing gaping vacancies. Storefronts are empty. Entire buildings sit waiting to be occupied. In Manhattan, retail vacancies have reached their highest rates since 2001. For the second quarter of this year, vacancies hit the absurd height of 12.4%, thanks to unemployment trends that won't quit and consumers reluctant to pry open their wallets.

Retailers are being hit just like the residential market.

The New York Times reports that more people are turning in criminals to pay their bills. Calls to tip lines are up as much as 44% since the first quarter of 2007. For example, calls are up 30% to the Southwest Florida Crime Stoppers hot line, up 44% to the San Antonio hot line, and up 25% or more to hotlines in Detroit, Omaha, and Beaufort County, N.C. Why? Tipsters tell operators they need the money for rent, light bills or baby formula. It sounds like 1984 to me.

What's the pay for a tip? It depends -- programs in most places pay $50 to $1,000 for tips that bring results. And in some counties there's a "gun bounty" if a weapon is recovered. In Sussex County, N.J., the average payment for a tip that results in an arrest is $400. With the median monthly income after tax of $838, this kind of money can make a big difference -- especially with gasoline prices up to $4 a gallon.

If you want to know where call volume is likely to increase the most, look to regions of the country with the highest foreclosure rates. That's where desperate tippers are eager for fast payment. For example, Lee County, Florida, offers quick payments -- within two weeks of the tip -- and it had the highest rate for home foreclosures in the U.S. in February and March. Its once-plentiful construction jobs have evaporated and people are calling in tips to make up for the lost income.

Charging the rent to your credit card sounds insane -- it seems like it would be the eighth deadly sin, tied with going to a payday lender to get gambling money.

But as the New York Times points out, the strategy can be great if you're in good financial shape: If you pay off the balance each month you pay no interest, and you can rack up rewards on your credit card -- possibly round-trip airfare anywhere in the country each year if you have high rent!

But there are some pitfalls: Because of the way FICO scores are calculated, drawing down a large percentage of your available credit, even if you pay it off each month, can hurt your score. So if paying your rent by credit would leave you with little additional credit available, it might be a bad idea -- something that you cost you thousands on your mortgage when you do buy your own home.

The Times also points out, somewhat obviously, that if you can't afford to pay off your rent in cash each month, you shouldn't put it on your card. But if you can't afford to pay your rent out of your monthly income, that's a whole other problem...

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Chico's FAS (CHS), MetroPCS (PCS), Federated Investors (FII) and Tibco (TIBX) were today's noteworthy initiations:

• Roth Capital believes Chico's FAS (NYSE: CHS) growth will be back on track given the changes within the merchandise organization and recent infrastructure investments, and initiated shares with a Buy rating and $24 target.

• Pacific Crest believes MetroPCS's (NYSE: PCS) low-cost business model creates opportunities and that its large market focus should drive outperformance, and initiated shares with an Outperform rating.

• JMP Securities believes near-term upside in Federated Investors (NYSE: FII) could be seen with hurricane season and resumed coverage of Federated Investors with an Overweight rating and $178 target.
  

• Pacific Crest believes 2007 is a transition year for Tibco (NASDAQ: TIBX) and started shares with a Sector Perform rating...

OTHER INITIATIONS:

• BWS Financial initiated Rentrak (NASDAQ: RENT) with a Buy rating and $20 target.

• HSBC started Lukoil (OTC: LUKOY) with an Overweight rating.

• Pacific Crest started shares of On Semiconductor (NASDAQ: ONNN) with an Outperform rating and $16 target.

• BMO Capital initiated Ares Capital (NASDAQ: ARCC) with an Outperform rating and $18 target.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).